El Niño's NHL Thread

[El Nino]

pure freaking luck on the ML on Philly 2nite

Good hit.

[El Nino]

March Breakdown (Running YTD)

40-29-2 +19.53u (YTD: 83-60-2 +40.06u)

3u plays: 4-2 +5.88u (YTD: 11-3 +20.21u)
2u plays: 9-7 +2.62u (YTD: 20-14 +6.52u)
1u plays: 26-20-2 +10.01u (YTD: 50-40-2 +11.81u)

Puck Line plays: 7-0 +10.67u (YTD: 8-3 +9.62u)
Totals O/U: 4-3-2 +1.37u (YTD: 8-5-2 +3.59u)
Regulation plays: 16-11 +11.30u (YTD: 21-15 +10.68u)
Grand Salami: 1-0 +0.87u (YTD: 3-3 -3.31u)
Team to Score 1st: 0-2 -2.00u (YTD: 0-2 -2.00u)

I made 3 less plays in March and netted exactly 1u less profit than I did in February.
I had no idea that I went 7-0 in Puck Line bets until I went over my spreadsheet. That along with the Regulation bets were the key to most of my winning. The only category I lost in March was prop bets. Best to save those units rather than reaching for a bet on slow cards.

On to April

[El Nino]

4/1

Chicago Blackhawks Regulation (-105) 3u

YTD
83-60-2 +40.06u

At the beginning of Feb. and March I started off slow. To start off April I'm coming out firing a 3u pound play. As stated above: 3u plays are 11-3 +20.21u this season. I looked at my spreadsheet and 3u plays on the Chicago Blackhawks are 3-0 +7.44u The Predators are still a huge road fade as of now. In March road games the Preds were 1-6-1 averaging only 1.7 goals scored per game, but allowing an average of 4 goals per game. The Preds lack offensive fire power and rise and fall with Rinne. Rinne was coming off 4 straight victories when he last played the Blackhawks in Nashville. The Blackhawks won 3-0 while Crawford pitched a 17 save shutout. I am comfortable with either Crawford or Emery in net in this situation as both have played excellent at home. Sharp and Hossa both practiced Saturday and are questionable to play in this game. It's gravy if they do lace 'em up.

[Louisvillekid1]

Great job so far up 40 units

[THam12]

4/1

Chicago Blackhawks Regulation (-105) 3u

YTD
83-60-2 +40.06u

At the beginning of Feb. and March I started off slow. To start off April I'm coming out firing a 3u pound play. As stated above: 3u plays are 11-3 +20.21u this season. I looked at my spreadsheet and 3u plays on the Chicago Blackhawks are 3-0 +7.44u The Predators are still a huge road fade as of now. In March road games the Preds were 1-6-1 averaging only 1.7 goals scored per game, but allowing an average of 4 goals per game. The Preds lack offensive fire power and rise and fall with Rinne. Rinne was coming off 4 straight victories when he last played the Blackhawks in Nashville. The Blackhawks won 3-0 while Crawford pitched a 17 save shutout. I am comfortable with either Crawford or Emery in net in this situation as both have played excellent at home. Sharp and Hossa both practiced Saturday and are questionable to play in this game. It's gravy if they do lace 'em up.

Hosea and sharp are both not going to play. But I think regardless hawks win this game. Good luck!

[El Nino]

Great job so far up 40 units

Thanks, pal. Grindin' like an axe blade.

[El Nino]

Hosea and sharp are both not going to play. But I think regardless hawks win this game. Good luck!

Have you read anything definitively saying that? Sounded like a long shot, but last I heard was questionable.

[Vegas39]

Per coach Q both Hossa and Sharp out. Crawford in net

[El Nino]

Per coach Q both Hossa and Sharp out. Crawford in net

[Dollars2Donuts]

I always like to look at your thread and see that we have the same pick.....although I also dumped $340 on them including OT (at -170)....

GL tonight!

[fitguy67]

Nino: another value-driven alternative to the ML for big faves

already on the radar are "-0.5" reg and "-1.5"

I propose that another candidate worthy of consideration is the special "-1 puckline"" bet...fashioned exactly the same way (out of the ML and the "-1.5 handicap"...in such a way that ML wins "finance" the PL bet, so that a 1-goal victory leaves a draw)

as no books that I know of offer an "off the shelf" "-1 puckline" (altho' some do offer a "-1 runline" for baseball)...you have to "roll your own" (TM, fitguy67 enterprises...all rights reserved)...see

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1699456-read-before-you-place-your-next-1rl-wager.html

just replace the word "run" with "puck" and everything remains the same...

_____________________

I'd always known you could do this...and have instinctively done so whenever the "chalk" starts bothering my sinuses...today i just noticed with the Chicago bet...

the price for the "-1 PL" is in the same ballpark as the "-0.5 reg" option...it turned out about -105 for me...

so i thought i'd give you a "heads up" on this...cuz the "-1 PL" is a WHOLE GAME bet...so it's inherently less "frustrating" than the reg bet...cuz you're still in with a chance should the game tie...

since the prices of the two options (the "easier" to place "reg" bet...and the more "labor-intensive" ML/PL hybrid bet I'm talking about here) will generally be of similar magnitude...you can consider it an additional, optional "arrow for your quiver"...one that appeals to bettors that are willing to work a bit to shave a few extra points off a bet...to get a few more swipes at the puck in case the game ends in a tie

___________
check out the link if you're interested...if such a bet doesn't appeal to you in baseball, it probably won't in hockey either...but I swear by the -1 handicap bet and I've been knee-jerk converting many -1.5's to them for quite a while (gladly sacrificing the bigger payouts in exchange for getting "saved from" the frustration of the 1-run-victory that loses)

[tombuckers]

Well done on March Nino. Good luck in April.

I'm on Hawks tonight too. GL.

[infin80]

Keep up the great work. Tailing you on the Blackhawks and taking the Sharks too.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Ugly, Ugly, Ugly..........

[alpinepetey]

Brutal bed sh!tting by Chicago in the 3rd. Pulling for Chi in OT for D2D

[bald_guy]

Can't win them all. I was only going to put one unit on the Hawks, due to the bad taste they keep leaving in my mouth, but did go back and add the puck line for a total of 2 units.

I'm sure we will get them units back in no time. Keep up the good work Nino.

[El Nino]

2 goal blown lead...nothing new here.

[Huckleberry Pig]

2 goal blown lead...nothing new here.

brutal man, hate to see that. No doubt you'll get it back though

[chabooky386]

2 goal blown lead...nothing new here.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Basically a break even for me.....had $150 on them in REG and $340 to win $200 including OT.....a huge swing for me though in total $s....

GL tomorrow my friends

[fitguy67]

this is precisely why i've decided to take the trouble to roll my own "-1 PL's " (as an alternative to the "-0.5 reg" bet) from now on...they take a good bit of the sting out of ties (by giving you a chance for a push)

realizing today that the -1RL is very-comparably priced to the "-0.5 reg"...and knowing how frustrating ties are with the reg bet on (ESPECIALLY, like tonight, when our side eventually wins the damn game...with the -1PL, instead of feeling pissed off after 60'...i felt glad to still be very-much alive)...all this has me sold on using the synthetic "-1 handicap" bet for backing expensive faves in both MLB and NHL

even if it were clear that PLs and reg's may outperform the -1PL by a small margin...it would come at the cost of higher volatility...for risk-averse types such as me, the -1PL may still be a nice compromise way to lower the price of backing a favorite...while making the game easier on the blood pressure

[El Nino]

this is precisely why i've decided to take the trouble to roll my own "-1 PL's " (as an alternative to the "-0.5 reg" bet) from now on...they take a good bit of the sting out of ties (by giving you a chance for a push)

realizing today that the -1RL is very-comparably priced to the "-0.5 reg"...and knowing how frustrating ties are with the reg bet on (ESPECIALLY, like tonight, when our side eventually wins the damn game...with the -1PL, instead of feeling pissed off after 60'...i felt glad to still be very-much alive)...all this has me sold on using the synthetic "-1 handicap" bet for backing expensive faves in both MLB and NHL

even if it were clear that PLs and reg's may outperform the -1PL by a small margin...it would come at the cost of higher volatility...for risk-averse types such as me, the -1PL may still be a nice compromise way to lower the price of backing a favorite...while making the game easier on the blood pressure

Good stuff here, fitter! I checked it out and will take a look at using it in the future.

[bald_guy]

Can you roll your own -1 puck line on 5 dimes?

(Might be a moot question, seems 5 dimes is down.)

[El Nino]

Can you roll your own -1 puck line on 5 dimes?

(Might be a moot question, seems 5 dimes is down.)

Everyone harping on me to get on this book and it's down every week it seems Unsecured server, always goes down.

[Russian Rocket]

Everyone harping on me to get on this book and it's down every week it seems Unsecured server, always goes down.

The server is secured, but unreliable for sure...btw it's working now

[loodachris99]

Fortunately my book doesn't offer rugilation bets so I just tailed on the hawks n ended up gettin the lucky win.... Would have rather us all win tho

[El Nino]

4/2

Los Angeles Kings (-135) 2u
Washington Capitals (+100)

YTD
83-61-2 +37.06u

[bald_guy]

The server is secured, but unreliable for sure...btw it's working now

Actually, Sadly, I don't think it is secured at all. But you are right, its back up!!!

El Nino, does your book go into SSL mode when you log in? If so, might also join your book, as your lines are nearly as good as 5 dimes as a rule.

[fitguy67]

Can you roll your own -1 puck line on 5 dimes?

you can roll your own "-1 handicap" bet ANYwhere...it's just a properly-sized combination of two bets...a ML and a "-1.5 handicap"

as you know...for MLB "-1.5 handicap" is called Run-line or RL...for NHL, it's called Puck-Line or PL

check out http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...1rl-wager.html

it's about MLB...so it's all about RL's==the basic "off the shelf" -1.5 RL...and the -1RL that you can buy off the shelf at some places...but the point of the thread is that you can always "roll your own" -1 RL...and that "doing it yourself" as described gives a considerably better price...there are links in the thread to some handy online "-1RL calculators" to auto-blast the size of the two bets you need

so just change the word "Run" to "Puck" (and RL to PL)...and you're off to the races

[bald_guy]

you can roll your own "-1 handicap" bet ANYwhere...it's just a properly-sized combination of two bets...a ML and a "-1.5 handicap"

as you know...for MLB "-1.5 handicap" is called Run-line or RL...for NHL, it's called Puck-Line or PL

check out http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...1rl-wager.html

it's about MLB...so it's all about RL's==the basic "off the shelf" -1.5 RL...and the -1RL that you can buy off the shelf at some places...but the point of the thread is that you can always "roll your own" -1 RL...and that "doing it yourself" as described gives a considerably better price...there are links in the thread to some handy online "-1RL calculators" to auto-blast the size of the two bets you need

so just change the word "Run" to "Puck" (and RL to PL)...and you're off to the races

Awesome. Now I understand how you "roll you own". Many Thanks.

[Vegas39]

4/2

Los Angeles Kings (-135) 2u
Washington Capitals (+100)

YTD
83-61-2 +37.06u

on first one

[therealJ$]

Yotes are my POD Nino :-(

[therealJ$]

I actually hope Quick starts too..Yotes better win this one against a division rival or pack it in for the year..I think they got one last push in them though and you know how tough Phoenix can be. Kings are the better playoff team but will they be all out today? Kings playing for the #3 spot in the playoffs which I think they'll get by playoffs whether they win today or not 1 point back. Phoenix looking to make its 4th straight playoffs is within reach.. H2H is disturbingly in Kings favor but Yotes have managed to win 4 of last 7 in the desert.. Labarbara in net.. Hanzal and Doan to step up tonight. Not a single soul on the Yotes from what I see but I'll give them a shot in this situation 4-3 Yotes prediction for 1 unit +115

[ch3ss]

El Nino I hate you
I was about to drop some knowledge on you cats....

Caps +1.5 all day LONG

[ch3ss]

on first one

Vegas: you better get on the Caps.... I am 3-0 on them in the past 3 weeks....