El Niño's NHL Thread

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  • Smoke
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-09-09
    • 48111

    #981
    Originally posted by DiggityDaggityDo
    I'll bring the vodka!!!
    I'll bring the bath salts!
    Comment
    • therealJ$
      SBR High Roller
      • 03-29-13
      • 127

      #982
      Kings are -107 -1/2 right now at 5Dimes.That's almost .2 units....GL Nino
      Comment
      • fitguy67
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 03-13-11
        • 5082

        #983
        Originally posted by snapperman2
        A -1 PL bet is not the same as a -0.5 regulation time bet. Suppose that your team wins by one goal in regulation time. Then a regulation time bet would win but a -1 bet would push. On the other hand, suppose that your team ties in regulation time and wins in overtime. Then a regulation time bet would lose, but a -1 PL bet would push.
        snappy, when i clinked glasses with J$ (who called for the reg bet)...it was cuz we BOTH won (him with his reg, and me with my do-it-yourself -1 PL)...

        bald_guy, thanks for chiming in...u obviously have the hang of the bet-sizing...but still have a bit of confusion about how it gets graded...with -1, you only WIN if your team wins by 2 or more...1 run victories get a "consolation PUSH"...anything worse than that INCLUDING a tie are big fat LOSSes...everything is for the WHOLE GAME, unlike the reg which grades at 60mins...so with the -1PL a reg tie gives you a chance for the consolation PUSH (if your team should win the game, which means win by 1, therefore a tie)...
        Last edited by fitguy67; 04-04-13, 06:16 PM.
        Comment
        • fitguy67
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 03-13-11
          • 5082

          #984
          'nother thing, bald guy...the whole-game "-1 PL" is best considered an alternate way of accomplishing the same thing as the "-0.5 reg"...a way of backing your team when the ML get too pricey...

          notice today's card has DET -110...the ML's not too pricey...best to go the ML route (ie. stupid to give up the "1-goal victories" if you can have them for reasonable money)...

          but WAS and LAK are more pricey...so ways of getting a better price (-0.5 reg OR -1PL) come into consideration...each having their advantages and disadvantages...with "reg" you win on the reg-1-goal victories that you'd just push with the -1...on the other hand, a reg-bet would lose a game tied after 60min, but your -1 bet still leaves you with a chance for a push)...in MLB the -1RL has always been the standard way of getting a better price...in hockey it's always been the reg-bet...(I just threw out the idea that there's no reason that the -1 can not be used in the NHL too)

          on balance, in MLB or NHL...ML is the best way to go if not too price...if too pricey, either pass or consider a lower-cost alternative...that "sacrifices"--by losing or pushing--on some of the results that a ML-bet would clearly win...You gain a better price/you sacrifice ways of winning your bet.

          __________________

          Nino is a "value-junkie"/not an "action junkie"...and i'd tail just as he calls 'em...i merely offered up an alternate to "-0.5 reg" that he calls for occasionally that some might appreciate...over the haul the two types of bet would be close in EV...with the -1 being less volatile (cuz of the reasonably-frequent pushes)...
          Last edited by fitguy67; 04-04-13, 07:18 PM.
          Comment
          • bald_guy
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 11-02-12
            • 990

            #985
            Well. I still think a tie would be a push on the ML part of a home rolled ML-1. I think it depends on how your book grades a tie. Which don't happen very often.

            Edit: seems ties can no longer happen. So the case above can't happen. When I seen total stats such as 16-5-1, I assumed the 1 was a tie. But guess they are reporting they was tied at end of regulation.
            Last edited by bald_guy; 04-04-13, 07:15 PM.
            Comment
            • cockblocker
              SBR MVP
              • 04-26-09
              • 1268

              #986
              Have to disagree with you on the Kings El Nino.
              Minny +160 .....................10 units

              Play of the year ....This team needs to get back on track and I see them doing it tonight. They match up very well against the Kings. They keep Carter off the board and they win. Backstrom in net for Minny and BERNIER in net for the Kings.
              Comment
              • Smoke
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 10-09-09
                • 48111

                #987
                Originally posted by fitguy67
                'nother thing, bald guy...the whole-game "-1 PL" is best considered an alternate way of accomplishing the same thing as the "-0.5 reg"...a way of backing your team when the ML get too pricey...

                notice today's card has DET -110...the ML's not too pricey...best to go the ML route (ie. stupid to give up the "1-goal victories" if you can have them for reasonable money)...

                but WAS and LAK are more pricey...so ways of getting a better price (-0.5 reg OR -1PL) come into consideration...each having their advantages and disadvantages...with "reg" you win on the reg-1-goal victories that you'd just push with the -1...on the other hand, a reg-bet would lose a game tied after 60min, but your -1 bet still leaves you with a chance for a push)...in MLB the -1RL has always been the standard way of getting a better price...in hockey it's always been the reg-bet...(I just threw out the idea that there's no reason that the -1 can not be used in the NHL too)

                on balance, in MLB or NHL...ML is the best way to go if not too price...if too pricey, either pass or consider a lower-cost alternative...that "sacrifices"--by losing or pushing--on some of the results that a ML-bet would clearly win...You gain a better price/you sacrifice ways of winning your bet.

                __________________

                Nino is a "value-junkie"/not an "action junkie"...and i'd tail just as he calls 'em...i merely offered up an alternate to "-0.5 reg" that he calls for occasionally that some might appreciate...over the haul the two types of bet would be close in EV...with the -1 being less volatile (cuz of the reasonably-frequent pushes)...
                damn dude you overthink things way too much. Just bet the games
                Comment
                • therealJ$
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 03-29-13
                  • 127

                  #988
                  I prefer Bernier actually since Quicks come back from injury..Bernier is one hell of a goalie
                  Comment
                  • bald_guy
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 11-02-12
                    • 990

                    #989
                    Originally posted by El Nino
                    4/4
                    Los Angeles Kings Regulation (-125) 2u
                    Detroit Red Wings (-110) 2u
                    Washington Capitals Regulation (+115)
                    0-1 so far tonight. But luckily that was our 1 unit play. So lets hope our 2 2 unit plays do better!!
                    Update:
                    1-2 tonight. Since i got Los Angeles +100 with the roll your own ML-1 method, the 2 unit plays cancelled each other out so am only down one unit. Not bad at all.

                    Thanks for the picks. I think our fortunes will change soon.
                    Last edited by bald_guy; 04-05-13, 12:01 AM.
                    Comment
                    • DEUCED
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 02-02-10
                      • 615

                      #990
                      Originally posted by Smoke
                      Rusher we will. I got comps at mgm detroit. You join and we'll make it a 3way
                      I'm in for the daisy chain too!
                      Comment
                      • therealJ$
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 03-29-13
                        • 127

                        #991
                        Comment
                        • fitguy67
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 03-13-11
                          • 5082

                          #992
                          for those that don't mind thinking...this final report on how the "-0.5, reg" and "-1, whole game" bets compare price-wise...

                          Everything at 5dimes, so "apples with apples"...

                          right now...about an hour before puck-drop...

                          -0.5, reg = -107

                          "-1, whole game" = +100 (ML= -175/PL= +175)

                          _________
                          so it appears that the extra work involved in calculating and executing the -1PL (relative to the "off the shelf" regulation bet) is compensated somewhat by a little discount...I'd expect that such a small-yet-significant discount would tend to persist over the haul...i'd bet that those setting the "-0.5, reg" price are well-aware of the value of the -1PL and use it as a "benchmark" of sorts...for various historical-data-based reasons (esp. the ratio of regulation 1-goal victories by the fave to regulation ties...things that affect the relative value of the two options)...they like to consistently price their reg-bets a few points from it...(BTW, ditto the setting of the "+0.5,reg" relative to the +1PL "benchmark"...the differences will be the result of statistical calculation)
                          _____________
                          it would be nice if an NHL data-weeny could evaluate the relative performance of each type of bet for all faves closing, say, with a ML -160 or higher...you'd need data on closing ML, PL, and reg bets as well as the game results
                          _________
                          I won't take up any more thread space with this...

                          Go Kings!!!
                          Last edited by fitguy67; 04-04-13, 10:34 PM.
                          Comment
                          • El Nino
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 05-03-12
                            • 18426

                            #993
                            Originally posted by cockblocker
                            Have to disagree with you on the Kings El Nino.
                            Minny +160 .....................10 units

                            Play of the year ....This team needs to get back on track and I see them doing it tonight. They match up very well against the Kings. They keep Carter off the board and they win. Backstrom in net for Minny and BERNIER in net for the Kings.
                            Sorry, pal. When I fade the Wild (as a homer) it is a good idea to tail. The Wild are 0-2 this year on the 2nd leg of back to back road games without a day of rest. Both losses are out west. Bernier is underrated as well.
                            Comment
                            • Vegas39
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 09-22-11
                              • 30686

                              #994
                              Originally posted by El Nino
                              Sorry, pal. When I fade the Wild (as a homer) it is a good idea to tail. The Wild are 0-2 this year on the 2nd leg of back to back road games without a day of rest. Both losses are out west. Bernier is underrated as well.
                              very much so
                              Comment
                              • El Nino
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 05-03-12
                                • 18426

                                #995
                                1-2 -1.33u

                                The City of Detroit can go fukk itself today
                                Comment
                                • fitguy67
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 03-13-11
                                  • 5082

                                  #996
                                  Originally posted by El Nino
                                  1-2 -1.33u

                                  The City of Detroit can go fukk itself today
                                  In this morning's Detroit Free Press

                                  In direct response to El Nino's proposal...the legislative council of the great city of Detroit is now drafting a resolution to officially declare itself a "hermaphrodite"... this would clear all legal barriers to attempting to fully comply...and set the stage for other cities to also attempt what once was thought impossible...

                                  altho many logistical issues remain to be ironed out, all four major sports teams--the Wings, Tigers, and especially the Lions--are likely to play a key role in the proposed "Big Bang" scenario...and a committee is being set up to develop ways to educate the community on how to pawn everything they own and go "all in" en masse, when the signal is given by the city fathers...

                                  Last edited by fitguy67; 04-05-13, 12:52 PM.
                                  Comment
                                  • ch3ss
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 03-18-13
                                    • 208

                                    #997
                                    Nino:

                                    Regulation for the Caps nicked you in the ass... sorry my friend
                                    Comment
                                    • bald_guy
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 11-02-12
                                      • 990

                                      #998
                                      O well. Last night was last night. Any thing good on tap for tonight niño?
                                      Comment
                                      • El Nino
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 05-03-12
                                        • 18426

                                        #999
                                        4/5

                                        Anaheim Ducks Regulation (-125) 2u

                                        YTD
                                        85-64-2 +34.73u
                                        Comment
                                        • El Nino
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 05-03-12
                                          • 18426

                                          #1000
                                          Originally posted by ch3ss
                                          Nino:

                                          Regulation for the Caps nicked you in the ass... sorry my friend
                                          Yeah, I didn't feel that there was long term value in taking the -140. Both teams were undefeated in the shootout this year. Took the gamble on the + $.
                                          Comment
                                          • bald_guy
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 11-02-12
                                            • 990

                                            #1001
                                            Originally posted by El Nino
                                            4/5
                                            Anaheim Ducks Regulation (-125) 2u
                                            Thanks. Lock and loaded, but with ML-1.

                                            I foolishly did a play on my own tonight, Pens - NY Rangers OVER. LOL. Needless to say, should have did the under. O well, hopefully this play will be more productive. Thanks for the pick!!
                                            Comment
                                            • ch3ss
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 03-18-13
                                              • 208

                                              #1002
                                              Ducks aint looking to good right now
                                              Comment
                                              • El Nino
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 05-03-12
                                                • 18426

                                                #1003
                                                Originally posted by ch3ss
                                                Ducks aint looking to good right now
                                                Not scurred. I've lost so many 2 and 3 goal leads. I'm due to get one my way.
                                                Comment
                                                • Smoke
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 10-09-09
                                                  • 48111

                                                  #1004
                                                  El nino can you please do a video in assless chaps?

                                                  Thank you
                                                  Comment
                                                  • El Nino
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 05-03-12
                                                    • 18426

                                                    #1005
                                                    Originally posted by Smoke
                                                    El nino can you please do a video in assless chaps?

                                                    Thank you
                                                    Smoke, can you change your avatar back to a hot chick. I feel like I'm going to be prison raped every time I see it.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • El Nino
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 05-03-12
                                                      • 18426

                                                      #1006
                                                      Originally posted by ch3ss
                                                      Ducks aint looking to good right now
                                                      4 goals in the 1st period, nothing for the rest of the game...totally standard. May have to wait until the playoffs for more plays. This is getting ridiculous.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Dollars2Donuts
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 02-07-13
                                                        • 8803

                                                        #1007
                                                        Originally posted by El Nino
                                                        4 goals in the 1st period, nothing for the rest of the game...totally standard. May have to wait until the playoffs for more plays. This is getting ridiculous.
                                                        Reminds me of last week when I had Canucks/Oilers over 5 and the Oil Kings scored 4 in the first 8 minutes....clearly no more goals for 52 minutes!!!!


                                                        D2D
                                                        Comment
                                                        • bald_guy
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 11-02-12
                                                          • 990

                                                          #1008
                                                          Originally posted by El Nino
                                                          4 goals in the 1st period, nothing for the rest of the game...totally standard. May have to wait until the playoffs for more plays. This is getting ridiculous.
                                                          A bit of a rough week, no doubt about that. I see there are 10 games tomorrow. Will try to keep watch in case you pick something. Hang in there.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • TC Woods
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-17-11
                                                            • 1780

                                                            #1009
                                                            Originally posted by El Nino
                                                            Smoke, can you change your avatar back to a hot chick. I feel like I'm going to be prison raped every time I see it.
                                                            Click image for larger version

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                                                            Comment
                                                            • ChicagoBlackhawk
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 01-20-13
                                                              • 518

                                                              #1010
                                                              Originally posted by Bolzano
                                                              I’m in possession of confidential information about fix matches from MLB in the coming days.


                                                              email: marco . biazzgo @ aol . com

                                                              lol at this attempt to sell bs info
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Drakester45
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 09-23-11
                                                                • 105

                                                                #1011
                                                                Originally posted by Bolzano
                                                                I’m in possession of confidential information about fix matches from MLB in the coming days.


                                                                email: marco . biazzgo @ aol . com
                                                                Wow!!! I would Pay ANY amount of money for such valuable information. Where do I send my cash? Do you accept 3rd party, out of state checks? LOL!! Ridiculous!!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Smoke
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 10-09-09
                                                                  • 48111

                                                                  #1012
                                                                  Originally posted by El Nino
                                                                  Smoke, can you change your avatar back to a hot chick. I feel like I'm going to be prison raped every time I see it.
                                                                  thats the idea
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ch3ss
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 03-18-13
                                                                    • 208

                                                                    #1013
                                                                    Nino... was at a damn baby shower, but as you can imagine i put 2U on Caps winning in regulation...

                                                                    Well Ovie is penetrating lighting up the lamp.... watch out fellas.....
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • El Nino
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 05-03-12
                                                                      • 18426

                                                                      #1014
                                                                      Originally posted by ch3ss
                                                                      Nino... was at a damn baby shower, but as you can imagine i put 2U on Caps winning in regulation...

                                                                      Well Ovie is penetrating lighting up the lamp.... watch out fellas.....
                                                                      Yep, Capitals are heating up at the right time. Was busy last night and all day, didn't have a chance to cap any games. Looks like the books prob. took a beating though.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • ch3ss
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 03-18-13
                                                                        • 208

                                                                        #1015
                                                                        Caps -1.5 against Tampa.. This is to tough.... Big time points..Playing at home... Id take the $ line and not the PL... They are decent rivals, but its going to be loud tonight... why ? I am going to be at the game haha

                                                                        GO CAPS
                                                                        Comment
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