I still can't figure Ottawa out. I had an early lean on the under 5 (+125) but it probably lands on the number. If it was in Ottawa, I would say there is probably value. Tough road game for the Sens though.
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Thanks, pal. I still can't figure Ottawa out. I had an early lean on the under 5 (+125) but it probably lands on the number. If it was in Ottawa, I would say there is probably value. Tough road game for the Sens though.
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Kip stands on his head and the Flames net 5 goals on only 22 shots. 1-0 +0.91u
YTD
56-44-1 +23.20uComment -
the smooth (...well, as smooth as can be expected in this game) sailing continues
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El Nino
Keep it going!
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3/14
Pittsburgh Penguins Regulation (+120) 3u
Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 (+210)
YTD
56-44-1 +23.20uComment -
Adding: St. Louis Blues (-140) 2uComment -
Don't know if its worthy of a play in a true thread dedicated to hockey, but my Blackhawks are NOT losing a third game in a row.Comment -
What time did pitt game start? I checked thread at 657 to tail 7 pm games n nothing posted... Then checked again to look for 730-8 games at about 7:20 n saw ur post at 7:07 but the game had already started... Assuming maybe it was a 7:10 start?? Oh well gl nonetheless and I'm wit ya on the blues as well!!Comment -
Posted very late, stupid daylight savings. BookMaker had the Pitt game listed at 4:15, posted at 4:07 my time. Usually, they let you bet until the puck drops.Comment -
Dupuis!
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hahahahahaha unreal
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I will never complain about a bad beat again. Most improbable PL cover ever!Comment -
you know we bitch at the GGods when improbable shit detrimental to our bet happens...but we fail to express our gratitude to them when equally-improbable parcels are delivered in the knick of time--this is the third time in the last handful of days that our puckline tickets were rescued from the garbage...and credited nicely to Nino's unit count.
Thank you GGods for what happened in Toronto!
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Not sure if you saw it, but the Leafs got a Power Play 6-4 faceoff in Pitt's end 22 seconds left. Scrum play in front, Craig Adams chips it out and scoots all the way down the ice and in. Leafs fans go home.you know we bitch at the GGods when improbable shit detrimental to our bet happens...but we fail to express our gratitude to them when equally-improbable parcels are delivered in the knick of time--this is the third time in the last handful of days that our puckline tickets were rescued from the garbage...and credited nicely to Nino's unit count.
Thank you GGods for what happened in Toronto!
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3-0 +7.13u
YTD
59-44-1 +30.33uComment -
Solid work you have going here, nino.Comment -
Unreal wins on the Pens, congrats
Was looking like a 1-0 Leafs final for the longest time
Pens exploded.
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3/15
Calgary Flames Regulation (+125)
YTD
59-44-1 +30.33uComment -
Best of luck tonight El Nino, keep it up!
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now up to 31.33 units (with complete 1-3 unit discipline throughout...if brock doesn't claim 'em...make sure to burn those damn rubber-bands, lol)...well done!
now let's talk best MMA play for tomorrow...
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best value on the card i could find (locked in yesterday but lines haven't moved much since, i don't think)
Condit by Dec +220..........0.45x to win x
Hendricks by KO +290.......0.35x to win x
altogether risking just 0.8x,
worst case you lose the 0.8x , but obvious "paths to victory" analysis suggests there's a very substantial likelihood of one hitting...
yeilding either 0.65x if Condit wins (a -125ish payout rate on the 0.8x risked)
or yielding 0.55x if Hendricks wins (a -145ish payout rate on the 0.8x risked)
Considered as a whole, it's like a "double-chance" bet in soccer..with a payout in the -135ish area...meaning this play has value if the true probability of it hitting (ie. one of the 2 events occurring) is at least 57.5%...
I think the probability of either a Condit decision or a Hendricks KO is well over that thresh-hold.
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"I showed you mine"...now it's your turn, pal... what u got cookin', MMA-wise?
Last edited by fitguy67; 03-16-13, 12:40 AM.Comment -
Well it's actually +31.58u since it was a 1u wager to win 1.25unow up to 31.33 units (with complete 1-3 unit discipline throughout...if brock doesn't claim 'em...make sure to burn those damn rubber-bands, lol)...well done!
now let's talk best MMA play for tomorrow...
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best value on the card i could find (locked in yesterday but lines haven't moved much since, i don't think)
Condit by Dec +220..........0.45x to win x
Hendricks by KO +290.......0.35x to win x
altogether risking just 0.8x,
worst case you lose the 0.8x , but obvious "paths to victory" analysis suggests there's a very substantial likelihood of one hitting...
yeilding either 0.65x if Condit wins (a -125ish payout rate on the 0.8x risked)
or yielding 0.55x if Hendricks wins (a -145ish payout rate on the 0.8x risked)
Considered as a whole, it's like a "double-chance" bet in soccer a...with a payout in the -135ish area...meaning this play has value if the true probability of it hitting (ie. one of the 2 events occurring) is at least 57.5%...
I think the probability of either a Condit decision or a Hendricks KO is well over that thresh-hold.
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"I showed you mine"...now it's your turn, pal... what u got cookin', MMA-wise? Condit is my fav bet on the card, although I believe he can finish Hendricks as well. Hendricks by KO/TKO would be the obv. Hedge. GSP by decision is an auto bet along with fight goes the distance. Hedge would be Diaz ITD. Haven't browsed the lines a whole lot yet. Best of luck!
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