El Niño's NHL Thread

**El Nino** · 02-28-13, 11:33 PM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

Phoenix is still playing bud...here we go again

Coyotes definitely had a chance. Don't mind that loss as a Wild fan

**El Nino** · 02-28-13, 11:34 PM

Started this thread in Feb. so here's the Feb./YTD stats:

YTD
43-31 +20.53u

Largest Wager: 4.2u to win 2u +2u
3u plays: 7-1 +14.33u
2u plays: 11-7 +3.9u
1u plays: 24-20 +1.8u

PL plays: 1-3 -1.05u
Totals O/U: 4-2 +2.22u
Regulation plays: 5-4 -0.62u
Grand Salami: 2-3 -4.18u

**Russian Rocket** · 02-28-13, 11:49 PM

Originally posted by El Nino

Started this thread in Feb. so here's the Feb./YTD stats:

YTD
43-31 +20.53u

Largest Wager: 4.2u to win 2u +2u
3u plays: 7-1 +14.33u
2u plays: 11-7 +3.9u
1u plays: 24-20 +1.8u

PL plays: 1-3 -1.05u
Totals O/U: 4-2 +2.22u
Regulation plays: 5-4 -0.62u
Grand Salami: 2-3 -4.18u

El Nino is still on the roll...don't fukking disturber him with ur picks like I do...El Nino my apologies...just watching and tailing from now on

**Dollars2Donuts** · 02-28-13, 11:49 PM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

Phoenix is still playing bud...here we go again

Sorry, disagree here. He was 2-0 for 5 units on his earlier picks.....his last pick he was down 3-0 when I posted....it was only BECAUSE of my post that he even had a chance in that game!

**Russian Rocket** · 02-28-13, 11:53 PM

Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts

Sorry, disagree here. He was 2-0 for 5 units on his earlier picks.....his last pick he was down 3-0 when I posted....it was only BECAUSE of my post that he even had a chance in that game!

good point pal

**El Nino** · 02-28-13, 11:57 PM

Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts

Sorry, disagree here. He was 2-0 for 5 units on his earlier picks.....his last pick he was down 3-0 when I posted....it was only BECAUSE of my post that he even had a chance in that game!

That ricochet off the glass divider was ridiculous. Ekman-Larsson had a great look at the end, but his stick exploded.

**El Nino** · 03-01-13, 12:03 AM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

El Nino is still on the roll...don't fukking disturber him with ur picks like I do...El Nino my apologies...just watching and tailing from now on

It could have been a much nicer month. When I went on a 19-4 run, 16 of those plays were 1u plays. I'm a nit

**Russian Rocket** · 03-01-13, 12:07 AM

Originally posted by El Nino

It could have been a much nicer month. When I went on a 19-4 run, 16 of those plays were 1u plays. I'm a nit

hey pal you're still in a pretty thick green...no a lot of people can say that betting hockey...

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-01-13, 02:58 AM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

hey pal you're still in a pretty thick green...no a lot of people can say that betting hockey...

Agreed........not many winners out there.....great run, and it will only get better and bigger!

**El Nino** · 03-01-13, 06:51 PM

3/1

Wild/Ducks Over 5 Goals(-110)

YTD
43-31 +20.53u

**fitguy67** · 03-01-13, 09:53 PM

Rocket, really liked that youtube hi-lite reel you posted somewhere in the MMA subforums recently ...of a Greek kickboxer named..."Zambodis" (sp?)..can you post it here (i know Nino is big on MMA as well)...seems lyk he had a huge height and reach disadvantage in every fight...which just makes his knockouts all the more spectacular...he still fighting?

watching it reminds me that I think Hunt by KO +210 (0.48u to win 1u) has value tomoro nyt

**El Nino** · 03-01-13, 10:39 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

Rocket, really liked that youtube hi-lite reel you posted somewhere in the MMA subforums recently ...of a Greek kickboxer named..."Zambodis" (sp?)..can you post it here (i know Nino is big on MMA as well)...seems lyk he had a huge height and reach disadvantage in every fight...which just makes his knockouts all the more spectacular...he still fighting?

watching it reminds me that I think Hunt by KO +210 (0.48u to win 1u) has value tomoro nyt

I wouldn't bet against Struve, Fitter. Kid is starting to come into his own. I was really impressed in how he picked apart Miocic and fought an incredibly smart fight. Gassed Miocic out, then finished him. He's not just sticking his chin out and getting KO'd like he did in his first few UFC fights. Hunt's best days are behind him. 6 of Hunt's 7 losses have come by sub. Struve uses his lanky arms and leg very well against weak BJJ fighters. New blood vs. old dinosaur. Struve by sub 1st round.

**fitguy67** · 03-01-13, 11:11 PM

Struve by Sub now just +115 (implied prob an amazing 46.5% for just this one result)...supports what you say...

What u think of Siyad Bahadurzada now +260...the best "live dog" on the card for me, with a way better shot than the 28% implied

(BTW 3 goals in the first 35 mins...on pace...need a few more...preferably from your Wild)

**El Nino** · 03-01-13, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

Struve by Sub now just +115 (implied prob an amazing 46.5% for just this one result)...supports what you say...

What u think of Siyad Bahadurzada now +260...the best "live dog" on the card for me, with a way better shot than the 28% implied

(BTW 2 goals in the first...on course)

I know literally nothing about that guy. If you're going to bet the Struve fight and use props to hedge, I'd take Struve by sub, Struve ITD, Hunt by KO/TKO, Hunt ITD. Hunt is not winning a decision. His only avenue to victory is KO/TKO. I like Struve -175 a lot. For dogs, I still think Lombard is over hyped and Okami can turn it into an ugly grinding fight that neutralizes Lombard's power. On the flip fights I like Brad Tavares and Alex Caceres. BOL

**Russian Rocket** · 03-01-13, 11:40 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

Rocket, really liked that youtube hi-lite reel you posted somewhere in the MMA subforums recently ...of a Greek kickboxer named..."Zambodis" (sp?)..can you post it here (i know Nino is big on MMA as well)...seems lyk he had a huge height and reach disadvantage in every fight...which just makes his knockouts all the more spectacular...he still fighting?

watching it reminds me that I think Hunt by KO +210 (0.48u to win 1u) has value tomoro nyt

**fitguy67** · 03-01-13, 11:56 PM

Originally posted by El Nino

I know literally nothing about that guy. If you're going to bet the Struve fight and use props to hedge, I'd take Struve by sub, Struve ITD, Hunt by KO/TKO, Hunt ITD. Hunt is not winning a decision. His only avenue to victory is KO/TKO. I like Struve -175 a lot. For dogs, I still think Lombard is over hyped and Okami can turn it into an ugly grinding fight that neutralizes Lombard's power. On the flip fights I like Brad Tavares and Alex Caceres. BOL

You're right, Struve SUB +115 and Hunt +210 cover the bulk of what could reasonably happen. I already had Struve by SUB and thie vid Rocket just put up--and the still-fresh memory of Lawler's ko of Koscheck--reminded me it's always good to pay tribute to the "puncher's chance" and hedge...a little bit goes a long way cuz of the odds involved)

Enjoy the vid...a skillful, powerful, & confident "manlet" fighting and pummelling man-sized opponents.

____________________

woohoo...4th goal registers early in 3rd...

**El Nino** · 03-02-13, 12:01 AM

Originally posted by fitguy67

You're right, Struve SUB +115 and Hunt +210 cover the bulk of what could reasonably happen. I already had Struve by SUB and thie vid Rocket just put up--and the still-fresh memory of Lawler's ko of Koscheck--reminded me it's always good to pay tribute to the "puncher's chance" and hedge...a little bit goes a long way cuz of the odds involved)

Enjoy the vid...a skillful, powerful, & confident "manlet" fighting and pummelling man-sized opponents.

____________________

woohoo...4th goal registers early in 4th...

Wild finally on the board. Guy definitely has manlet tendencies. Looks like a can crusher. Impressive KO's nonetheless.

**Russian Rocket** · 03-02-13, 12:33 AM

Originally posted by El Nino

Wild finally on the board. Guy definitely has manlet tendencies. Looks like a can crusher. Impressive KO's nonetheless.

**El Nino** · 03-02-13, 12:33 AM

No blood. First push on the season.

YTD
43-31-1 +20.53u

**Russian Rocket** · 03-02-13, 12:41 AM

El Nino equals $$$

**El Nino** · 03-02-13, 01:07 AM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

El Nino equals $$$

Not today, but no damage done either. Tonight's small card was more about avoiding the bad lines/bets. I did like Anaheim TT over 2.5 goals but it was -145 a little too juicy. Blue Jackets +1.5 becomes an auto bet at evens or better, but I saw it bouncing between -115 and -130. Like some others mentioned on here tonight, I don't like laying juice on the empty net scenario.

**Russian Rocket** · 03-02-13, 01:09 AM

Originally posted by El Nino

Not today, but no damage done either. Tonight's small card was more about avoiding the bad lines/bets. I did like Anaheim TT over 2.5 goals but it was -145 a little too juicy. Blue Jackets +1.5 becomes an auto bet at evens or better, but I saw it bouncing between -115 and -130. Like some others mentioned on here tonight, I don't like laying juice on the empty net scenario.

pal you'll be back in ur winning ways at no time

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-02-13, 04:50 PM

Hey...lot's of games already going.....no picks for today?

I am going to end up 1-1 and breaking even in the early games....

**El Nino** · 03-02-13, 06:25 PM

3/2

Montreal Canadiens (-125) 2u
Anaheim Ducks (+100)
Under 5 Goals Kings/Canucks (-115)

YTD
43-31-1 +20.53u

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-02-13, 06:38 PM

Montreal, eh? Because Vokoun is starting? Or just like them at home on a Saturday night?

I like your other two picks for sure.

I think I jinxed myself when I said it looked like I was going 1-1 earlier....Buffalo and NJ scored 4 in the third to get me the over, so I managed a quick 2-0 to start.

Good luck today Nino

**El Nino** · 03-02-13, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts

Montreal, eh? Because Vokoun is starting? Or just like them at home on a Saturday night?

I like your other two picks for sure.

I think I jinxed myself when I said it looked like I was going 1-1 earlier....Buffalo and NJ scored 4 in the third to get me the over, so I managed a quick 2-0 to start.

Good luck today Nino

I like Price better than Vokoun. Montreal at home on the weekend will be a good crowd. Malkin still out. Line is pretty much stayed where it's at except public is on Pitt and the Pens are always a public team.

I missed the early games. Only real strong lean I had was the under on the Caps/Jets. BOL today

**Dollars2Donuts** · 03-03-13, 01:17 AM

Yeah....Price is on fire....

**El Nino** · 03-03-13, 02:30 AM

Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts

Yeah....Price is on fire....

Race to 7...unreal. Highest scoring game of the season.

**El Nino** · 03-03-13, 02:44 AM

0-3 -4u

Interesting trend: *Home teams kill it on Sat. Night again. 7-2 tonight, 22-6 last three weeks.

**fitguy67** · 03-03-13, 03:37 AM

[QUOTE=fitguy67;17968300]You're right, Struve SUB +115 and Hunt +210 cover the bulk of what could reasonably happen. I already had Struve by SUB and thie vid Rocket put up-reminded me it's always good to pay tribute to the "puncher's chance" and hedge...a little bit goes a long way cuz of the odds involved)

update: What I learned from UFC.Fuel#9... This is getting to be the norm lately in MMA...long-shot "puncher's chance" killing all the chalk-eaters (Bigfoot>Overeem, Newton>Mo, Lawler>Koscheck...and just tonyt: Hunt>Struve & Wanderlai>Stann)...luckily my lottery ticket on Hunt got me a push...and my spidey-sense kept me out of the main event...cuz it was more an "exbibition" than a real competition.

Moral of the story...never bak a chalky big fave, without a "just in case" ticket should the unlikely happen...which it will from tym to tym (and given Murphy's Law...usually the worst tym),,,the price of such a "disaster insurance" hedge-bet must be factored into your strategy...making chalky favorites even less appealing...Here, Struve was the right bet...luckily so was my experiment (from now on a babit) in hedging large peices of chalk,

In contrast, bakking undervalued live-dogs is so much easier...cheaper-per-unit-targeted...so you can swing without a net...my bet on SiyarB that was. seekiing the same #units was a fraction of the Struve-bet's size, for example.

**El Nino** · 03-03-13, 03:58 AM

[QUOTE=fitguy67;17979526]

Originally posted by fitguy67

You're right, Struve SUB +115 and Hunt +210 cover the bulk of what could reasonably happen. I already had Struve by SUB and thie vid Rocket put up-reminded me it's always good to pay tribute to the "puncher's chance" and hedge...a little bit goes a long way cuz of the odds involved)

update: This is getting to be the norm lately in MMA...long-shot "puncher's chance" killing all the chalk-eaters (Bigfoot>Overeem, Newton>Mo, Lawler>Koscheck...and just tonyt: Hunt>Struve & Wanderlai>Stann)...luckily my lottery ticket on Hunt got me a push...and my spidey-sense kept me out of the main event...cuz it was more an "exbibition" than a real competition.

Moral of the story...never bak a chalky big fave, without a "just in case" ticket should the unlikely happen...which it will from tym to tym (and given Murphy's Law...usually the worst tym),,,the price of such a "disaster insurance" hedge-bet must be factored into your strategy...making chalky favorites even less appealing...Here, Struve was the right bet...luckily so was my experiment (from now on a babit) in hedging large peices of chalk,

In contrast, bakking undervalued live-dogs is so much easier...cheaper-per-unit-targeted...so you can swing without a net...my bet on Siyar. seekiing the same #units was a fraction of the Struve-bet's size, for example.

Yeah, I didn't watch the fights yet but from reading the updates it sounded like Struve was pretty active going for Hunt's arms then was completely gassed for the 3rd round. I did give you 3 other winnerz though at great prices. Caceres, Tavares, in their pick 'em fights and Okami as a healthy dog.

Main Event was the definition of a no play.

**El Nino** · 03-03-13, 07:11 AM

3/3

Chicago Blackhawks (-115) 2u

YTD
43-34-1 +16.53u

March
0-3-1 -4u

**Russian Rocket** · 03-03-13, 10:54 AM

BOL El Nino

I'm pounding Chicago and Ottawa today

**fitguy67** · 03-03-13, 11:26 AM

Nino, I wasn't bitching at all...I was in on Struve all by myself...my point was to win a unit u have to risk so much more on the big favorites than you do on the small-faves and dogs. Watching that manlet pummel-video the other day activated my spidey-sense that Hunt could screw up my night. The hedge

turned on for the first tym...and it worked out as a "pleasant lesson", turning the surprise loss/disaster into a surprise-loss/push.

So from now on it's mostly dogs and small-faves for me. When the occasional big-fave bet has legitiamate value (Texeira over Page, and Macida over Hendo, and Struve last night all come to mind)...fly with 'em...but pay the relatively-inexpensive "upset insurance" tax to prevent losing an inordinate amount of capital.

__________

BTW, post-regulation crapped on Montreal & Anaheim games which were obviously capped well enough...keep doin' what your doin' bro...cuz ur havin' a great season.

**fitguy67** · 03-03-13, 04:52 PM

Cash It!

the Blackhawks are UN-believable in the fullest sense of the word!

They have ruined countless chases and "labby lines" (and lives) with their last half-dozen "failures to lose in regulation time"...