My theory, pot smokers answer the phone but don't leave the house.
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My theory, pot smokers answer the phone but don't leave the house.Comment -
ha I'll make it up to u boyz with some MMA winnerz come November time!Comment -
5d: romney to win pennsylvania +500 (fair value +350)Comment -
Well, lucky for you I just made it back on something called a Dodig. Whatever that thing does or is.Comment -
ha against Leyton Hewitt..Must of been a nice dog?Comment -
not to beat a dead horse, but the colorado amendment is at +175 now. whats most confusing to me is that the intrade market is pretty spot on for the other two ballot initiatives
Colorado Amendment 64 to be passed by voters in Nov 2012 ballot 50.0%
Colorado Amendment 64 to be passed -245
Colorado Amendment 64 won't pass +175
Oregon Measure 80 to be passed by voters in Nov 2012 ballot 11.1% (+800)
Oregon Measure 80 to be passed +550
Oregon Measure 80 won't pass -1050
Washington Initiative (I-502) to be passed by voters in Nov 2012 ballot 74% (-285)
Washington Initiative I-502 to be passed -300
Washington Initiative I-502 won't pass +220Comment -
A timely article:
"A 2009 paper by David Rothschild found that FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts were somewhat better than Intrade’s over the course of the 2008 presidential election cycle. Mr. Rothschild wrote, however, that Intrade’s forecasts would have outperformed FiveThirtyEight’s had they been corrected to adjust for the market’s tendency to overrate the chances of the trailing candidate (what is known as a favorite-long shot bias). Of course, if that bias still applies in Intrade’s pricing, it would imply that the market is overrating Mr. Romney’s chances now as he is the underdog in the race."Last edited by NunyaBidness; 10-24-12, 08:29 PM.Comment -
I am ordering one of the books you recommended, and I've spent numerous hours this evening reading posts and articles from Ganchrow. Much appreciated.
I'm sure knowing I actually took your advice isn't worth much, but I figured I'd let you know that you, at the very least, didn't waste your time. Thanks again.Comment -
I dunno, it's strange. My first thought is that the way they're marketing it (you're getting the pot leaf intro too, right?) that its bringing out the potheads to vote yes on it, while the unconcerned aren't going to give it another look. But as you point out, why aren't the other ones moving?
There is active trading in this market right now, 30 shares today, so the market isn't stagnant.
I'm going to keep betting it and assume intrade bettors know more than 5d does. Problem with betting some of these things early though is perception can change a lot. I was killing the market in all of my state bets, but now the market is killing me.Last edited by NunyaBidness; 10-24-12, 08:20 PM.Comment -
Pay it forward, like haley joel osmettComment -
Just saw this in Player's Talk thought you would enjoy it...
Originally Posted by k13 
Does it really make a difference if you get +1 or -1 or whatever?Comment -
i hope this proves true.A timely article:
"A 2009 paper by David Rothschild found that FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts were somewhat better than Intrade’s over the course of the 2008 presidential election cycle. Mr. Rothschild wrote, however, that Intrade’s forecasts would have outperformed FiveThirtyEight’s had they been corrected to adjust for the market’s tendency to overrate the chances of the trailing candidate (what is known as a favorite-long shot bias). Of course, if that bias still applies in Intrade’s pricing, it would imply that the market is overrating Mr. Romney’s chances now as he is the underdog in the race."
"It is unusual for differences like these to persist for very long in well-functioning markets, because they would potentially enable a trader to make a risk-free profit by selling Mr. Romney’s stock short at Intrade, where it is expensive, and then betting on him at one of the sports books or at another prediction market, where it is relatively cheap. The fact that these relatively wide spreads exist between the different markets suggest that they are relatively illiquid and that they entail high transaction costs, which may limit their efficiency."
hehe. did you transfer those funds into intrade?Comment -
Dorks.Comment -
NFL player props
5dimes - josh freeman over 1.5 tds +135
bovada - freeman under 1.5 tds +110
about 15 mins to get this inComment -
Actual
MAkes no sense because they have this27505 SIMON COWELL +180 27506 BRITNEY SPEARS +220 27507 L.A. REID +235 27508 DEMI LOVATO +400
Simon has the groups. I dont watch the show. The future Mrs. Bubzy does and Simon has the groups and does not know if the teams get switched up27501 MALE +125 27502 FEMALE -165 27503 GROUP +475 Comment -
Wow lines way off if what I'm being told is accurate. Biggest favorite to win is a young girl on britney team. Bovada has brit at even. Simon is coaching the groups - very unlikely that a group wins this type of competition. People generally vote for individuals. Reid coaching older folk. Again, unlikely to win bc people who watch the show are typically younger.bovada has simon and reid at +400.Comment
