LTA's NFL PLays

[dredmahawkus]

LTA you think buying the hook is much better value or not really much when totals are in the 30s?

[Love The Action]

LTA you think buying the hook is much better value or not really much when totals are in the 30s?

I don't think "buying the hook" is a great idea but in rare circumstances. Those circumstances have nothing to do with whether a total is in the 30's, 40's or 50's. The reason I bought the hook on the Seattle/Bears game is that 36 is the 20th most common final score and at this time of the year, we are facing the sharpest lines out there. In the last two weeks, I have had 4 pushes (including last night) worth 8x. Had I not gotten the best number or otherwise bought the hook in those games, I would have lost 8x. Therefore, I am not going to playing too many 1/2 point lines from here on out in the NFL. I don't agree with buying points in really any other sport, but when you are dealing with late season NFL games that hover around key numbers, it's important to manipulate those key numbers as much as possible.

[doin]

today I am concerned about the teams that have already finished last. if their opponent plays 2nd string to keep the starting line healthy for playoff games coming, would it be wise to leave those games alone?
panther chief viking against shoe ins.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Correlated Teaser

Patriots PK/over (39.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Here's a game that I actually expect Tebow to play well and am counting on him to do so. I may also play the over in this game as a stand-alone play. Although the Broncos defense is vastly improved since they played GB, this is the same type of offense they will be facing. Let's face it, Brady is surgical out there and his stats tell the story. Offensively, NE is as good as it gets and along with GB and NO really represents the top three offenses according to the advanced stats. I think NE will have no problem hitting up the Denver defense for at least 4 touchdowns. However, I really think Tebow has a good game against this poor NE defense. NE ranks in the bottom 10 in the important advanced categories and is susceptible to both the run and pass. Tebow should be able get 21 points at home against this poor defense. NE is not the Bears and I expect the power rushing of McGahee and the read option of Tebow to be successful on Sunday against the Pats. In the end, I have the Pats set at -7 favorites so getting them at a pk is perfect. I just don't see Belicheck and Brady losing to this Denver team. I have the total set at 48.5 and it's currently at 45.5. I am going to scope out the line movement in hopes of getting 45, at which time I will probably lock in a play on the over in this game as well. For now, I am teasing the Pats down to a pk and the over to 39.5 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cowboys/Buccaneers over (46) 1x (Locked)

Busy day at work, so just getting around to posting this one now. I expect this one to go up 47 by Wednesday and getting this one under 47 is key. The main reason I like the over here is the poor defensive play exhibited by both teams. At least the Cowboys have Ware rushing off the end and causing some havoc. However, the Bucs have been ravaged by injuries to its entire defense, including across the entire starting defensive line. The Bucs defense is ranked in the bottom 5 in both rushing and passing advanced statistical categories, while Dallas has dipped from a top 15 defense to a bottom 15 defense in the same stats. On offense, the Cowboys are clicking and have Austin back to round a very dangerous receiving corps. TB is especially bad against the pass and I expect a big game out of Romo. On the other side, this is a prime time game and TB will play hard. I expect them to find some success against Dallas and score for 3 td's in a surprising effort at home. I still view Freeman as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league, despite taking a step back this year and dealing with some injuries. He will be tested with that rush from Ware, but they do have good protection from Penn at left tackle. I expect Dallas to win this game, but they are definitely a hard team to trust. That is why I think we see a surprise effort from TB in keeping this an interesting and being an active dog in helping this one cash on the over. I will be contemplating a possible tease with Dallas and the over as the week evolves. For now, I wanted to get this one locked in under the key number of 47 which is one of the most important key totals number. I have Dallas set at -7 with a total of 49 and am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Patriots/Broncos over (45)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Getting this play at 45 is vitally important. I do not forsee any further movement favoring the under and therefore do not expect 45(-110) to become available. Consequently, this is rare circumstance where buying the hook on a total is a wise investment. When the NFL gets to the final weeks of the season, the lines tighten up and are as sharp as ever. The NFL is truly about key numbers and making sure you know the percentages of final score possibilities. In this case, the total opened up at 46.5, was bet down to 45.5 by Wednesday morning when I made my wager and was bet right back up tot 46 and even 46.5 depending on your outlet. I really feel that someone was pushing that number down in order to buy it right back up. Getting this game at 45 is a complete steal and we are now covering a number that is the 12th most common final score. In addition, getting a NE game at 45 or less, it not even fair since they can hit that one their own on a good day. Not only do I have it set at 48.5, but with the Broncos facing the first real test on defense in quite awhile, I think we could see an explosion of points on Sunday. Many of my thoughts on this play can be found in the writeup for my teaser in this game making up Play #1 of this week. Don't be surprised if we see NE breakout for a big offensive game but Tebow to answer a few of those scores. I expect a competitive game with NE ending up on top. However, this one could very well eclipse 55. I am rolling with the value and taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Jets/Eagles over (43)(-120) 2x (Locked)

Here's another one where covering the key number of 43 is vitally important. 43 represents the 5th most common final score in the NFL and with a defense as good as the Jets, it's important to cover this important number. Therefore, I am going to eat the juice in this case and buy the hook. I am very confident that we see this one close at or around 45 by game time and that 43 will never become available on a 10 cent line. I don't recommend buying the hook on totals in general, but in the NFL I would argue this can be profitable if you know how to manipulate key numbers. In this game, you have a great defense in the Jets going against Vick without it's defensive quarterback in Leanord at safety. That really hurts the cohesiveness of the Jets defense going into Philly as they are finally starting to get healthy on offense. I expect Maclin to be hobbled a bit, but Jackson, Celek and McCoy are healthy and ready to help Vick salvage what they can of the season. Philly is a top 5 team rushing the ball in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Even though the Jets are a top 5 defense against the run, the Jets have had problems all year giving up points against decent offenses. In addition, Rex Ryan defenses have struggled just a bit against mobile quarterbacks such as Vick. I have this one set at 47 and we're buying the hook at cover the key number of 43. I really like this play and expect a competitive game with Philly playing at home. We are getting a great number here and I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Falcons (-11.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

This is a bad number as I should have gotten 11 earlier in the week, but I see no reason to buy the hook down to 11 as that is not a key number I am worried about in this game. Bottom line is that the Jaguars are mash unit that scored 3 touchdowns last week on defense and special teams to beat the Bucs. I don't expect any such success against the Falcons. To make matters worse, the Jags are playing their 3rd game in 11 days thanks to a scheduling quirk and this game is in Atlanta where we all know the Falcons have dominated under Matty Ice. This is a huge spot for the Falcons to come out and stomp on someone in front of a national audience who has pretty much written them off this year after a slow start. The Falcons have to win this game to stay in the playoff race so I just don't see how we can have a let down on Thursday. The stats show a huge advantage on offense in favor of the Falcons and despite some favorable stats on defense for the Jags, those high ratings were earned by a defense that is now mostly on IR. I just don't see how anyone can back the Jags in this horrible situational spot. I have Falcons set at -14 at home in this game and I wish I would have gotten -11. However, I would play this game at -12 and maybe even a little higher. This is the first double digit favorite I have played all year and I generally look to avoid such plays. However, in this case, the situational spot is so bad for the Jags and so good for the Falcons, that I have to pull the trigger. I am rolling with the Falcons for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Steelers/49'ers under (39) 1x (Locked)

I know about the injuries to the Steelers defense and to SF's Patrick Willis. However, Big Ben is banged up as well and this one sets up very similarly to the Balty/SF under we cashed on the Thanksgiving. Both defenses are top 10 in both rushing and passing DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR% and SF is actually top 5 and even #1 in many of those defensive stats. In addition, both defensive schemes allow for the younger backups to excel where needed. Pit's LB's crew is bit banged up, but I don't expect too much of a dropoff on Monday. On the other side, even though Willis will probably not play, the rest of that great defense is healthy. I am jumping on this one now because I just don't see a better number being available closer to the game. If Ben is announced out, the total will drop even further down the 37 range where I have it set. Even though I have it set at 37, I expect this one to be much lower scoring with a classic 17-13 type game. Some books don't even have this game up on the board because of the questions marks, but I am assuming Willis is out and Ben plays. Assuming Ben plays, however, he will not be at full strength or have his full mobility which makes him so dangerous. Therefore, I don't think it matters and the under is the play here. As I said above, I have this one set at 37 with Ben playing. If he is announced out, this one will steam lower. Regardless, I don't see this one getting above 39 so I am locking it in now. I am rolling with the under for 1x now and may add some more to this one down the line depending on the final injury report. Good luck.

Play #7

Seahawks/Bears under (36)(-120) 2x (Locked)

Another game where I feel buying the hook is necessary, although I recognize this is not a long term winning proposition. However, in select situations, this is a wise move. Those situations depend on key numbers. In this game, I could have actually had 36 without buying the hook. However, I was waiting for 36.5 in order to buy up to one of the most important key numbers of 37. However, it never got there and I missed the available 36's at a ten cent line. The chance to get 37 never materialized, but I'm not going to risk losing on a final score of 36 because that is the 20th most common final score. In late season NFL when the total lines are as sharp as ever, I'm not taking any chances. In this game, you have two top ten defenses and really top 5 defenses in all advanced statistical categories. These defenses are very statistically successful and impressive and I see no reason why they don't dominate today. This is true because we also have two really poor offenses that are ranked bottom 1/3 of the league. However, those numbers were before the injuries that have seen Cutler, Forte and Sydney Rice not play in this game. I have this game set at 35 with those players playing according to my model. When you factor in a game without those 3 players, I put this closer to 33. I think we could easily see this game end 17-10 or be that type of game. This game sets up as a classic NFL smashmouth game with two offenses that highlight the run against two top 5 defenses against the run. The quarterbacks are Hanie and Jackson who are horrible with respect to accuracy. Therefore, my sole concerns as far as this game going over are special teams returns with Washington or Hester and pick 6's since both defenses are so aggressive and both quarterbacks are so bad. Nevertheless, as long as we stay away from those types of plays, this should stay in the 20''s and I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

today I am concerned about the teams that have already finished last. if their opponent plays 2nd string to keep the starting line healthy for playoff games coming, would it be wise to leave those games alone?
panther chief viking against shoe ins.

That's definitely something you have to consider. However, you have to decide whether the other factors you like in those games, outweighs the concerns you have. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

And there it is...Pinny just dropped the Bears total from 35.5 to 34.5. Nice.

[GChild]

Big line movements in NO and greenbay games

[Love The Action]

Lions steaming big time. I do lean to that side, but their undisciplined nature makes them hard to trust. Going against the undisciplined Raiders, anything can happen. This sets up as an ugly game.

[Krazymojo]

man...got it at 35.5

[Krazymojo]

Giants line keep dropping too lol

[Donnie Brasco]

So pissed at myself right now. I abandoned everything i believe in regarding sports investing and went totally square. I was so tired of watching these faves cover so i faded myself:
Lean chiefs +13.5, took pack
Lean minnesota +7.5, took saints
Lean wash +6.5, took gmen

Getting totally creamed by the steam, fck this sht!! Cant win for losing!

[GChild]

So pissed at myself right now. I abandoned everything i believe in regarding sports investing and went totally square. I was so tired of watching these faves cover so i faded myself:
Lean chiefs +13.5, took pack
Lean minnesota +7.5, took saints
Lean wash +6.5, took gmen

Getting totally creamed by the steam, fck this sht!! Cant win for losing!

You will be fine!!

[Donnie Brasco]

Hope so g child!

[Love The Action]

Anyone have active/inactive confirmation on Chris Long for the Rams?

[GChild]

They said on espn him and Bradford were out but not confirmed

[BigDan]

Anyone have active/inactive confirmation on Chris Long for the Rams?

active

[Love The Action]

active

Thanks bud. Was hoping he was out so I could play Cincy -7. Might tease them down with NO.

Any thoughts on those games? GL today

[BigDan]

Thanks bud. Was hoping he was out so I could play Cincy -7. Might tease them down with NO.

Any thoughts on those games? GL today

even with him playing he is really banged up to the point im not sure he has a huge impact on the gm.. like always it really hard to find points for Lambs in this gm and there no way stl corners can stick green and simpson, throw in the d wearing down from being on the field all day and i think cincy is prob one of the better sides today...

[big cheyo]

cincys good but vikings sometimes get inspired and play good, ponder isnt a bad qb

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Correlated Teaser

Patriots PK/over (39.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Here's a game that I actually expect Tebow to play well and am counting on him to do so. I may also play the over in this game as a stand-alone play. Although the Broncos defense is vastly improved since they played GB, this is the same type of offense they will be facing. Let's face it, Brady is surgical out there and his stats tell the story. Offensively, NE is as good as it gets and along with GB and NO really represents the top three offenses according to the advanced stats. I think NE will have no problem hitting up the Denver defense for at least 4 touchdowns. However, I really think Tebow has a good game against this poor NE defense. NE ranks in the bottom 10 in the important advanced categories and is susceptible to both the run and pass. Tebow should be able get 21 points at home against this poor defense. NE is not the Bears and I expect the power rushing of McGahee and the read option of Tebow to be successful on Sunday against the Pats. In the end, I have the Pats set at -7 favorites so getting them at a pk is perfect. I just don't see Belicheck and Brady losing to this Denver team. I have the total set at 48.5 and it's currently at 45.5. I am going to scope out the line movement in hopes of getting 45, at which time I will probably lock in a play on the over in this game as well. For now, I am teasing the Pats down to a pk and the over to 39.5 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cowboys/Buccaneers over (46) 1x (Locked) PUSH

Busy day at work, so just getting around to posting this one now. I expect this one to go up 47 by Wednesday and getting this one under 47 is key. The main reason I like the over here is the poor defensive play exhibited by both teams. At least the Cowboys have Ware rushing off the end and causing some havoc. However, the Bucs have been ravaged by injuries to its entire defense, including across the entire starting defensive line. The Bucs defense is ranked in the bottom 5 in both rushing and passing advanced statistical categories, while Dallas has dipped from a top 15 defense to a bottom 15 defense in the same stats. On offense, the Cowboys are clicking and have Austin back to round a very dangerous receiving corps. TB is especially bad against the pass and I expect a big game out of Romo. On the other side, this is a prime time game and TB will play hard. I expect them to find some success against Dallas and score for 3 td's in a surprising effort at home. I still view Freeman as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league, despite taking a step back this year and dealing with some injuries. He will be tested with that rush from Ware, but they do have good protection from Penn at left tackle. I expect Dallas to win this game, but they are definitely a hard team to trust. That is why I think we see a surprise effort from TB in keeping this an interesting and being an active dog in helping this one cash on the over. I will be contemplating a possible tease with Dallas and the over as the week evolves. For now, I wanted to get this one locked in under the key number of 47 which is one of the most important key totals number. I have Dallas set at -7 with a total of 49 and am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Patriots/Broncos over (45)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Getting this play at 45 is vitally important. I do not forsee any further movement favoring the under and therefore do not expect 45(-110) to become available. Consequently, this is rare circumstance where buying the hook on a total is a wise investment. When the NFL gets to the final weeks of the season, the lines tighten up and are as sharp as ever. The NFL is truly about key numbers and making sure you know the percentages of final score possibilities. In this case, the total opened up at 46.5, was bet down to 45.5 by Wednesday morning when I made my wager and was bet right back up tot 46 and even 46.5 depending on your outlet. I really feel that someone was pushing that number down in order to buy it right back up. Getting this game at 45 is a complete steal and we are now covering a number that is the 12th most common final score. In addition, getting a NE game at 45 or less, it not even fair since they can hit that one their own on a good day. Not only do I have it set at 48.5, but with the Broncos facing the first real test on defense in quite awhile, I think we could see an explosion of points on Sunday. Many of my thoughts on this play can be found in the writeup for my teaser in this game making up Play #1 of this week. Don't be surprised if we see NE breakout for a big offensive game but Tebow to answer a few of those scores. I expect a competitive game with NE ending up on top. However, this one could very well eclipse 55. I am rolling with the value and taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Jets/Eagles over (43)(-120) 2x (Locked)

Here's another one where covering the key number of 43 is vitally important. 43 represents the 5th most common final score in the NFL and with a defense as good as the Jets, it's important to cover this important number. Therefore, I am going to eat the juice in this case and buy the hook. I am very confident that we see this one close at or around 45 by game time and that 43 will never become available on a 10 cent line. I don't recommend buying the hook on totals in general, but in the NFL I would argue this can be profitable if you know how to manipulate key numbers. In this game, you have a great defense in the Jets going against Vick without it's defensive quarterback in Leanord at safety. That really hurts the cohesiveness of the Jets defense going into Philly as they are finally starting to get healthy on offense. I expect Maclin to be hobbled a bit, but Jackson, Celek and McCoy are healthy and ready to help Vick salvage what they can of the season. Philly is a top 5 team rushing the ball in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Even though the Jets are a top 5 defense against the run, the Jets have had problems all year giving up points against decent offenses. In addition, Rex Ryan defenses have struggled just a bit against mobile quarterbacks such as Vick. I have this one set at 47 and we're buying the hook at cover the key number of 43. I really like this play and expect a competitive game with Philly playing at home. We are getting a great number here and I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Falcons (-11.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

This is a bad number as I should have gotten 11 earlier in the week, but I see no reason to buy the hook down to 11 as that is not a key number I am worried about in this game. Bottom line is that the Jaguars are mash unit that scored 3 touchdowns last week on defense and special teams to beat the Bucs. I don't expect any such success against the Falcons. To make matters worse, the Jags are playing their 3rd game in 11 days thanks to a scheduling quirk and this game is in Atlanta where we all know the Falcons have dominated under Matty Ice. This is a huge spot for the Falcons to come out and stomp on someone in front of a national audience who has pretty much written them off this year after a slow start. The Falcons have to win this game to stay in the playoff race so I just don't see how we can have a let down on Thursday. The stats show a huge advantage on offense in favor of the Falcons and despite some favorable stats on defense for the Jags, those high ratings were earned by a defense that is now mostly on IR. I just don't see how anyone can back the Jags in this horrible situational spot. I have Falcons set at -14 at home in this game and I wish I would have gotten -11. However, I would play this game at -12 and maybe even a little higher. This is the first double digit favorite I have played all year and I generally look to avoid such plays. However, in this case, the situational spot is so bad for the Jags and so good for the Falcons, that I have to pull the trigger. I am rolling with the Falcons for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Steelers/49'ers under (39) 1x (Locked)

I know about the injuries to the Steelers defense and to SF's Patrick Willis. However, Big Ben is banged up as well and this one sets up very similarly to the Balty/SF under we cashed on the Thanksgiving. Both defenses are top 10 in both rushing and passing DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR% and SF is actually top 5 and even #1 in many of those defensive stats. In addition, both defensive schemes allow for the younger backups to excel where needed. Pit's LB's crew is bit banged up, but I don't expect too much of a dropoff on Monday. On the other side, even though Willis will probably not play, the rest of that great defense is healthy. I am jumping on this one now because I just don't see a better number being available closer to the game. If Ben is announced out, the total will drop even further down the 37 range where I have it set. Even though I have it set at 37, I expect this one to be much lower scoring with a classic 17-13 type game. Some books don't even have this game up on the board because of the questions marks, but I am assuming Willis is out and Ben plays. Assuming Ben plays, however, he will not be at full strength or have his full mobility which makes him so dangerous. Therefore, I don't think it matters and the under is the play here. As I said above, I have this one set at 37 with Ben playing. If he is announced out, this one will steam lower. Regardless, I don't see this one getting above 39 so I am locking it in now. I am rolling with the under for 1x now and may add some more to this one down the line depending on the final injury report. Good luck.

Play #7

Seahawks/Bears under (36)(-120) 2x (Locked)

Another game where I feel buying the hook is necessary, although I recognize this is not a long term winning proposition. However, in select situations, this is a wise move. Those situations depend on key numbers. In this game, I could have actually had 36 without buying the hook. However, I was waiting for 36.5 in order to buy up to one of the most important key numbers of 37. However, it never got there and I missed the available 36's at a ten cent line. The chance to get 37 never materialized, but I'm not going to risk losing on a final score of 36 because that is the 20th most common final score. In late season NFL when the total lines are as sharp as ever, I'm not taking any chances. In this game, you have two top ten defenses and really top 5 defenses in all advanced statistical categories. These defenses are very statistically successful and impressive and I see no reason why they don't dominate today. This is true because we also have two really poor offenses that are ranked bottom 1/3 of the league. However, those numbers were before the injuries that have seen Cutler, Forte and Sydney Rice not play in this game. I have this game set at 35 with those players playing according to my model. When you factor in a game without those 3 players, I put this closer to 33. I think we could easily see this game end 17-10 or be that type of game. This game sets up as a classic NFL smashmouth game with two offenses that highlight the run against two top 5 defenses against the run. The quarterbacks are Hanie and Jackson who are horrible with respect to accuracy. Therefore, my sole concerns as far as this game going over are special teams returns with Washington or Hester and pick 6's since both defenses are so aggressive and both quarterbacks are so bad. Nevertheless, as long as we stay away from those types of plays, this should stay in the 20''s and I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #8

Packers/Chiefs over (46) 1x (Locked)

I finally convinced myself that Orton can score 14-17 points off this GB defense, if not a little more. I think this is a big change from the Chiefs offense we have seen with Palko and the receivers must be licking their chops to at least have an NFL caliber qb behind center. Bowe, Breaston and Baldwin are solid if you can get them the ball and I expect the Chiefs to open it up today. After all, they have nothing to lose. GB is GB with or without Jennings and I see no reason why you don't see the Pack score their usual 28-35. Their advanced efficiency numbers are off the charts. I have this game set at 45, so there's not a ton of value under my model. However, my model only takes into account stats and not the change in qb. Therefore, I think you add an Orton led to Chiefs to the equation -- now that he has had enough time to learn the playbook -- and I think you see a game where the Chiefs can answer some of the standard GB scores. I think we see this game make it over the total in the 47-50 range. Therefore, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[GChild]

Let's do this!

[Pick'nParlays]

WagerType: Teaser
Date: Team:
Dec 18 NFL [306] NY GIANTS PK-110 (B+6)
Dec 18 NFL [307] TOTAL o40-110 (B+6) (GB PACKERS vrs KC CHIEFS)
Dec 18 NFL [317] TEN TITANS -½-115 (B+6)
Dec 18 NFL [319] CIN BENGALS -1½-115 (B+6)
Risking 100.00 USD To Win 250.00 USD

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Correlated Teaser

Patriots PK/over (39.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Here's a game that I actually expect Tebow to play well and am counting on him to do so. I may also play the over in this game as a stand-alone play. Although the Broncos defense is vastly improved since they played GB, this is the same type of offense they will be facing. Let's face it, Brady is surgical out there and his stats tell the story. Offensively, NE is as good as it gets and along with GB and NO really represents the top three offenses according to the advanced stats. I think NE will have no problem hitting up the Denver defense for at least 4 touchdowns. However, I really think Tebow has a good game against this poor NE defense. NE ranks in the bottom 10 in the important advanced categories and is susceptible to both the run and pass. Tebow should be able get 21 points at home against this poor defense. NE is not the Bears and I expect the power rushing of McGahee and the read option of Tebow to be successful on Sunday against the Pats. In the end, I have the Pats set at -7 favorites so getting them at a pk is perfect. I just don't see Belicheck and Brady losing to this Denver team. I have the total set at 48.5 and it's currently at 45.5. I am going to scope out the line movement in hopes of getting 45, at which time I will probably lock in a play on the over in this game as well. For now, I am teasing the Pats down to a pk and the over to 39.5 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cowboys/Buccaneers over (46) 1x (Locked) PUSH

Busy day at work, so just getting around to posting this one now. I expect this one to go up 47 by Wednesday and getting this one under 47 is key. The main reason I like the over here is the poor defensive play exhibited by both teams. At least the Cowboys have Ware rushing off the end and causing some havoc. However, the Bucs have been ravaged by injuries to its entire defense, including across the entire starting defensive line. The Bucs defense is ranked in the bottom 5 in both rushing and passing advanced statistical categories, while Dallas has dipped from a top 15 defense to a bottom 15 defense in the same stats. On offense, the Cowboys are clicking and have Austin back to round a very dangerous receiving corps. TB is especially bad against the pass and I expect a big game out of Romo. On the other side, this is a prime time game and TB will play hard. I expect them to find some success against Dallas and score for 3 td's in a surprising effort at home. I still view Freeman as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league, despite taking a step back this year and dealing with some injuries. He will be tested with that rush from Ware, but they do have good protection from Penn at left tackle. I expect Dallas to win this game, but they are definitely a hard team to trust. That is why I think we see a surprise effort from TB in keeping this an interesting and being an active dog in helping this one cash on the over. I will be contemplating a possible tease with Dallas and the over as the week evolves. For now, I wanted to get this one locked in under the key number of 47 which is one of the most important key totals number. I have Dallas set at -7 with a total of 49 and am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Patriots/Broncos over (45)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Getting this play at 45 is vitally important. I do not forsee any further movement favoring the under and therefore do not expect 45(-110) to become available. Consequently, this is rare circumstance where buying the hook on a total is a wise investment. When the NFL gets to the final weeks of the season, the lines tighten up and are as sharp as ever. The NFL is truly about key numbers and making sure you know the percentages of final score possibilities. In this case, the total opened up at 46.5, was bet down to 45.5 by Wednesday morning when I made my wager and was bet right back up tot 46 and even 46.5 depending on your outlet. I really feel that someone was pushing that number down in order to buy it right back up. Getting this game at 45 is a complete steal and we are now covering a number that is the 12th most common final score. In addition, getting a NE game at 45 or less, it not even fair since they can hit that one their own on a good day. Not only do I have it set at 48.5, but with the Broncos facing the first real test on defense in quite awhile, I think we could see an explosion of points on Sunday. Many of my thoughts on this play can be found in the writeup for my teaser in this game making up Play #1 of this week. Don't be surprised if we see NE breakout for a big offensive game but Tebow to answer a few of those scores. I expect a competitive game with NE ending up on top. However, this one could very well eclipse 55. I am rolling with the value and taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Jets/Eagles over (43)(-120) 2x (Locked)

Here's another one where covering the key number of 43 is vitally important. 43 represents the 5th most common final score in the NFL and with a defense as good as the Jets, it's important to cover this important number. Therefore, I am going to eat the juice in this case and buy the hook. I am very confident that we see this one close at or around 45 by game time and that 43 will never become available on a 10 cent line. I don't recommend buying the hook on totals in general, but in the NFL I would argue this can be profitable if you know how to manipulate key numbers. In this game, you have a great defense in the Jets going against Vick without it's defensive quarterback in Leanord at safety. That really hurts the cohesiveness of the Jets defense going into Philly as they are finally starting to get healthy on offense. I expect Maclin to be hobbled a bit, but Jackson, Celek and McCoy are healthy and ready to help Vick salvage what they can of the season. Philly is a top 5 team rushing the ball in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Even though the Jets are a top 5 defense against the run, the Jets have had problems all year giving up points against decent offenses. In addition, Rex Ryan defenses have struggled just a bit against mobile quarterbacks such as Vick. I have this one set at 47 and we're buying the hook at cover the key number of 43. I really like this play and expect a competitive game with Philly playing at home. We are getting a great number here and I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Falcons (-11.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

This is a bad number as I should have gotten 11 earlier in the week, but I see no reason to buy the hook down to 11 as that is not a key number I am worried about in this game. Bottom line is that the Jaguars are mash unit that scored 3 touchdowns last week on defense and special teams to beat the Bucs. I don't expect any such success against the Falcons. To make matters worse, the Jags are playing their 3rd game in 11 days thanks to a scheduling quirk and this game is in Atlanta where we all know the Falcons have dominated under Matty Ice. This is a huge spot for the Falcons to come out and stomp on someone in front of a national audience who has pretty much written them off this year after a slow start. The Falcons have to win this game to stay in the playoff race so I just don't see how we can have a let down on Thursday. The stats show a huge advantage on offense in favor of the Falcons and despite some favorable stats on defense for the Jags, those high ratings were earned by a defense that is now mostly on IR. I just don't see how anyone can back the Jags in this horrible situational spot. I have Falcons set at -14 at home in this game and I wish I would have gotten -11. However, I would play this game at -12 and maybe even a little higher. This is the first double digit favorite I have played all year and I generally look to avoid such plays. However, in this case, the situational spot is so bad for the Jags and so good for the Falcons, that I have to pull the trigger. I am rolling with the Falcons for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Steelers/49'ers under (39) 1x (Locked)

I know about the injuries to the Steelers defense and to SF's Patrick Willis. However, Big Ben is banged up as well and this one sets up very similarly to the Balty/SF under we cashed on the Thanksgiving. Both defenses are top 10 in both rushing and passing DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR% and SF is actually top 5 and even #1 in many of those defensive stats. In addition, both defensive schemes allow for the younger backups to excel where needed. Pit's LB's crew is bit banged up, but I don't expect too much of a dropoff on Monday. On the other side, even though Willis will probably not play, the rest of that great defense is healthy. I am jumping on this one now because I just don't see a better number being available closer to the game. If Ben is announced out, the total will drop even further down the 37 range where I have it set. Even though I have it set at 37, I expect this one to be much lower scoring with a classic 17-13 type game. Some books don't even have this game up on the board because of the questions marks, but I am assuming Willis is out and Ben plays. Assuming Ben plays, however, he will not be at full strength or have his full mobility which makes him so dangerous. Therefore, I don't think it matters and the under is the play here. As I said above, I have this one set at 37 with Ben playing. If he is announced out, this one will steam lower. Regardless, I don't see this one getting above 39 so I am locking it in now. I am rolling with the under for 1x now and may add some more to this one down the line depending on the final injury report. Good luck.

Play #7

Seahawks/Bears under (36)(-120) 2x (Locked)

Another game where I feel buying the hook is necessary, although I recognize this is not a long term winning proposition. However, in select situations, this is a wise move. Those situations depend on key numbers. In this game, I could have actually had 36 without buying the hook. However, I was waiting for 36.5 in order to buy up to one of the most important key numbers of 37. However, it never got there and I missed the available 36's at a ten cent line. The chance to get 37 never materialized, but I'm not going to risk losing on a final score of 36 because that is the 20th most common final score. In late season NFL when the total lines are as sharp as ever, I'm not taking any chances. In this game, you have two top ten defenses and really top 5 defenses in all advanced statistical categories. These defenses are very statistically successful and impressive and I see no reason why they don't dominate today. This is true because we also have two really poor offenses that are ranked bottom 1/3 of the league. However, those numbers were before the injuries that have seen Cutler, Forte and Sydney Rice not play in this game. I have this game set at 35 with those players playing according to my model. When you factor in a game without those 3 players, I put this closer to 33. I think we could easily see this game end 17-10 or be that type of game. This game sets up as a classic NFL smashmouth game with two offenses that highlight the run against two top 5 defenses against the run. The quarterbacks are Hanie and Jackson who are horrible with respect to accuracy. Therefore, my sole concerns as far as this game going over are special teams returns with Washington or Hester and pick 6's since both defenses are so aggressive and both quarterbacks are so bad. Nevertheless, as long as we stay away from those types of plays, this should stay in the 20''s and I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #8

Packers/Chiefs over (46) 1x (Locked)

I finally convinced myself that Orton can score 14-17 points off this GB defense, if not a little more. I think this is a big change from the Chiefs offense we have seen with Palko and the receivers must be licking their chops to at least have an NFL caliber qb behind center. Bowe, Breaston and Baldwin are solid if you can get them the ball and I expect the Chiefs to open it up today. After all, they have nothing to lose. GB is GB with or without Jennings and I see no reason why you don't see the Pack score their usual 28-35. Their advanced efficiency numbers are off the charts. I have this game set at 45, so there's not a ton of value under my model. However, my model only takes into account stats and not the change in qb. Therefore, I think you add an Orton led to Chiefs to the equation -- now that he has had enough time to learn the playbook -- and I think you see a game where the Chiefs can answer some of the standard GB scores. I think we see this game make it over the total in the 47-50 range. Therefore, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Bengals (-7) 1x (Locked)

There's a reason this one broke 7 and never looked back. Despite the question marks with the Bengals being a young team on the road, I see them rolling today with Clemons behind center for STL. I am rolling with the Bengals for 1x. Good luck.

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, Good luck today
Do you like the Jets ML tonight against the Eagles ?

[Love The Action]

even with him playing he is really banged up to the point im not sure he has a huge impact on the gm.. like always it really hard to find points for Lambs in this gm and there no way stl corners can stick green and simpson, throw in the d wearing down from being on the field all day and i think cincy is prob one of the better sides today...

I agree. I just think the ability for that Dalton to Green connection to hit today was too good to pass up. Although not as good of late, Cincy's defense still has really good advanced numbers and with Clemens playing I am expecting some easy turnovers. I really see Cincy rolling.

[Love The Action]

cincys good but vikings sometimes get inspired and play good, ponder isnt a bad qb

I chose to stay away from NO mainly because of the weakness of their defense. I'm not a big supporter of Ponder because he makes too many mistakes. However, he does have play-making ability and with him having AP back, I think Minny could keep it close. Chances are, if they are going to cover they are going to win when you factor in that NO is missing Ingram and any semblance of a power running game to go with struggles on the road.

[Love The Action]

Let's do this!

WagerType: Teaser
Date: Team:
Dec 18 NFL [306] NY GIANTS PK-110 (B+6)
Dec 18 NFL [307] TOTAL o40-110 (B+6) (GB PACKERS vrs KC CHIEFS)
Dec 18 NFL [317] TEN TITANS -½-115 (B+6)
Dec 18 NFL [319] CIN BENGALS -1½-115 (B+6)
Risking 100.00 USD To Win 250.00 USD

Good luck gentlemen

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, Good luck today
Do you like the Jets ML tonight against the Eagles ?

I like the over!

Jet's probably win, but this is the NFL. I think we see a competitive, high-scoring, fun game more than anything. Good luck in whatever you choose

[Love The Action]

Johnny Knox fumble for the Bears on his own 20 yard line. Unreal and inexcusable. The guy just knocked it out of his hand with a gentle swipe and then Knox got hurt going for it. That is the exact type of play we need to avoid when we are on an under with a low total like 36.

Then, the Chiefs get it down to the GB one yard line and don't get a touchdown. WTF...

[Pick'nParlays]

Bears are gonna hold

[Pick'nParlays]

I kno it's early but that was a huge 4 point swing

[SlickRick1382]

Incredible. After the fumble, the Bears defense holds the Seahawks from the 1 or 2 yard line and give them a stupid penalty so they can come back and score a TD.

[Love The Action]

What a bullshit call in the Bears game. The Bears D stops them from the 1 yard line and then on the field goal attempt the refs call "leverage" on Graham for trying to use another player to block the kick. That was fuking bullshit call. As son as we get a break, they take it away. Unreal.

[letsgo]

Under may be in big trouble with that Bears Defensive TD.

[Love The Action]

Ugh...what amounts to 2 defensive score putting this Bears under is serious jeopardy. Let's hope this turns into a snooze-fest with lots of punts soon...