LTA's NFL PLays

[Dave88]

What are the odds? More than -110?than

Hi LTA, well done with Falcons call! Wondering if you could share a little bit of wisdom.

My Book opened the Falcons at -10.5 odds of -135. The Jags +10.5 opened +105. As the money came for Atlanta -10.5 they reduced the odds to -147 but did not adjust the points spread and they offered Jags +10.5 at odds of +115 at kickoff.

I would have rather taken Atlanta -12.5 at better odds of -110 but unfortunately, thats not how my book here usually operates. They tend to adjust the price to tempt people to take the dog (even though +10.5 is not enough points in most peoples minds) rather than leaving the odds at -110 and adjusting the points spread.

I'm happy coz I took the Falcons and won but do you think in general it's worth risking it at these kinds of odds in the long run? Not good value, but a winner is a winner I guess eh? Would really appreciate your thoughts, thanks and BOL over the wekend!

[Redscot]

That's great! Glad to hear you got the whole fam together for the Holidays. I'm sure your wife must be really happy right now.

Plus, we did get an easy one tonight.

Nice win on the correlated teaser to boot

Thanks bro, you got that right about the wife . We DID get any easy one too, nice call . Need a Dallas victory now to pick up back end of 2nd teaser. Also have Dallas teased with the over. What are your thoughts on the Dallas side? I think they shake all their blunders here and cruise......

[Redscot]

Looking like the only eligible Wong tease (including the 3 as per LTA) would be Jets +9/S.D +8 1/2, I like it and will probably play it.

[phatRoll]

Thanks LTA! Gotta love a no-pressure win..

[LolsMcwinsey]

How bout saints and giants games over?

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

Dang LTA ur totally a TOTAL beast this season. Love the jets eagles over too. Good work keep em rolling!

[TomatoFace]

LTA is already starting the week off solid. Now I'm anxious to see some picks like Arizona playing a god awful Cleveland with no McCoy. Theyre also playing at the RedZone. Wouldn't mind teasing it to pick em with possible Dallas. Anyways good work / let me know your take on the Cards

[doin]

http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/cowboys

nice blog for the Boys. I'm liking them tonight.

#3 - Dallas Cowboys -6½ (-125) $125.00 $100.00
#3 - Dallas Cowboys/Tampa Bay Buccaneers o47 (-110) $137.50 $125.00

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Correlated Teaser

Patriots PK/over (39.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Here's a game that I actually expect Tebow to play well and am counting on him to do so. I may also play the over in this game as a stand-alone play. Although the Broncos defense is vastly improved since they played GB, this is the same type of offense they will be facing. Let's face it, Brady is surgical out there and his stats tell the story. Offensively, NE is as good as it gets and along with GB and NO really represents the top three offenses according to the advanced stats. I think NE will have no problem hitting up the Denver defense for at least 4 touchdowns. However, I really think Tebow has a good game against this poor NE defense. NE ranks in the bottom 10 in the important advanced categories and is susceptible to both the run and pass. Tebow should be able get 21 points at home against this poor defense. NE is not the Bears and I expect the power rushing of McGahee and the read option of Tebow to be successful on Sunday against the Pats. In the end, I have the Pats set at -7 favorites so getting them at a pk is perfect. I just don't see Belicheck and Brady losing to this Denver team. I have the total set at 48.5 and it's currently at 45.5. I am going to scope out the line movement in hopes of getting 45, at which time I will probably lock in a play on the over in this game as well. For now, I am teasing the Pats down to a pk and the over to 39.5 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cowboys/Buccaneers over (46) 1x (Locked)

Busy day at work, so just getting around to posting this one now. I expect this one to go up 47 by Wednesday and getting this one under 47 is key. The main reason I like the over here is the poor defensive play exhibited by both teams. At least the Cowboys have Ware rushing off the end and causing some havoc. However, the Bucs have been ravaged by injuries to its entire defense, including across the entire starting defensive line. The Bucs defense is ranked in the bottom 5 in both rushing and passing advanced statistical categories, while Dallas has dipped from a top 15 defense to a bottom 15 defense in the same stats. On offense, the Cowboys are clicking and have Austin back to round a very dangerous receiving corps. TB is especially bad against the pass and I expect a big game out of Romo. On the other side, this is a prime time game and TB will play hard. I expect them to find some success against Dallas and score for 3 td's in a surprising effort at home. I still view Freeman as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league, despite taking a step back this year and dealing with some injuries. He will be tested with that rush from Ware, but they do have good protection from Penn at left tackle. I expect Dallas to win this game, but they are definitely a hard team to trust. That is why I think we see a surprise effort from TB in keeping this an interesting and being an active dog in helping this one cash on the over. I will be contemplating a possible tease with Dallas and the over as the week evolves. For now, I wanted to get this one locked in under the key number of 47 which is one of the most important key totals number. I have Dallas set at -7 with a total of 49 and am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Patriots/Broncos over (45)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Getting this play at 45 is vitally important. I do not forsee any further movement favoring the under and therefore do not expect 45(-110) to become available. Consequently, this is rare circumstance where buying the hook on a total is a wise investment. When the NFL gets to the final weeks of the season, the lines tighten up and are as sharp as ever. The NFL is truly about key numbers and making sure you know the percentages of final score possibilities. In this case, the total opened up at 46.5, was bet down to 45.5 by Wednesday morning when I made my wager and was bet right back up tot 46 and even 46.5 depending on your outlet. I really feel that someone was pushing that number down in order to buy it right back up. Getting this game at 45 is a complete steal and we are now covering a number that is the 12th most common final score. In addition, getting a NE game at 45 or less, it not even fair since they can hit that one their own on a good day. Not only do I have it set at 48.5, but with the Broncos facing the first real test on defense in quite awhile, I think we could see an explosion of points on Sunday. Many of my thoughts on this play can be found in the writeup for my teaser in this game making up Play #1 of this week. Don't be surprised if we see NE breakout for a big offensive game but Tebow to answer a few of those scores. I expect a competitive game with NE ending up on top. However, this one could very well eclipse 55. I am rolling with the value and taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Jets/Eagles over (43)(-120) 2x (Locked)

Here's another one where covering the key number of 43 is vitally important. 43 represents the 5th most common final score in the NFL and with a defense as good as the Jets, it's important to cover this important number. Therefore, I am going to eat the juice in this case and buy the hook. I am very confident that we see this one close at or around 45 by game time and that 43 will never become available on a 10 cent line. I don't recommend buying the hook on totals in general, but in the NFL I would argue this can be profitable if you know how to manipulate key numbers. In this game, you have a great defense in the Jets going against Vick without it's defensive quarterback in Leanord at safety. That really hurts the cohesiveness of the Jets defense going into Philly as they are finally starting to get healthy on offense. I expect Maclin to be hobbled a bit, but Jackson, Celek and McCoy are healthy and ready to help Vick salvage what they can of the season. Philly is a top 5 team rushing the ball in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Even though the Jets are a top 5 defense against the run, the Jets have had problems all year giving up points against decent offenses. In addition, Rex Ryan defenses have struggled just a bit against mobile quarterbacks such as Vick. I have this one set at 47 and we're buying the hook at cover the key number of 43. I really like this play and expect a competitive game with Philly playing at home. We are getting a great number here and I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Falcons (-11.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER
This is a bad number as I should have gotten 11 earlier in the week, but I see no reason to buy the hook down to 11 as that is not a key number I am worried about in this game. Bottom line is that the Jaguars are mash unit that scored 3 touchdowns last week on defense and special teams to beat the Bucs. I don't expect any such success against the Falcons. To make matters worse, the Jags are playing their 3rd game in 11 days thanks to a scheduling quirk and this game is in Atlanta where we all know the Falcons have dominated under Matty Ice. This is a huge spot for the Falcons to come out and stomp on someone in front of a national audience who has pretty much written them off this year after a slow start. The Falcons have to win this game to stay in the playoff race so I just don't see how we can have a let down on Thursday. The stats show a huge advantage on offense in favor of the Falcons and despite some favorable stats on defense for the Jags, those high ratings were earned by a defense that is now mostly on IR. I just don't see how anyone can back the Jags in this horrible situational spot. I have Falcons set at -14 at home in this game and I wish I would have gotten -11. However, I would play this game at -12 and maybe even a little higher. This is the first double digit favorite I have played all year and I generally look to avoid such plays. However, in this case, the situational spot is so bad for the Jags and so good for the Falcons, that I have to pull the trigger. I am rolling with the Falcons for 1x. Good luck.

Here's the card so far for Week 15. Might have a few more posted today, but really going to concentrate on the bowl games as well. Plus, we have NBA action on Christmas Day to prepare for. Already on the Bulls +3. Too much to do and not enough time to do it. Let's get to work

[Love The Action]

Damn...looks like Patrick Willis will not play Monday night for the Niners. Damn....

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Correlated Teaser

Patriots PK/over (39.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Here's a game that I actually expect Tebow to play well and am counting on him to do so. I may also play the over in this game as a stand-alone play. Although the Broncos defense is vastly improved since they played GB, this is the same type of offense they will be facing. Let's face it, Brady is surgical out there and his stats tell the story. Offensively, NE is as good as it gets and along with GB and NO really represents the top three offenses according to the advanced stats. I think NE will have no problem hitting up the Denver defense for at least 4 touchdowns. However, I really think Tebow has a good game against this poor NE defense. NE ranks in the bottom 10 in the important advanced categories and is susceptible to both the run and pass. Tebow should be able get 21 points at home against this poor defense. NE is not the Bears and I expect the power rushing of McGahee and the read option of Tebow to be successful on Sunday against the Pats. In the end, I have the Pats set at -7 favorites so getting them at a pk is perfect. I just don't see Belicheck and Brady losing to this Denver team. I have the total set at 48.5 and it's currently at 45.5. I am going to scope out the line movement in hopes of getting 45, at which time I will probably lock in a play on the over in this game as well. For now, I am teasing the Pats down to a pk and the over to 39.5 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cowboys/Buccaneers over (46) 1x (Locked)

Busy day at work, so just getting around to posting this one now. I expect this one to go up 47 by Wednesday and getting this one under 47 is key. The main reason I like the over here is the poor defensive play exhibited by both teams. At least the Cowboys have Ware rushing off the end and causing some havoc. However, the Bucs have been ravaged by injuries to its entire defense, including across the entire starting defensive line. The Bucs defense is ranked in the bottom 5 in both rushing and passing advanced statistical categories, while Dallas has dipped from a top 15 defense to a bottom 15 defense in the same stats. On offense, the Cowboys are clicking and have Austin back to round a very dangerous receiving corps. TB is especially bad against the pass and I expect a big game out of Romo. On the other side, this is a prime time game and TB will play hard. I expect them to find some success against Dallas and score for 3 td's in a surprising effort at home. I still view Freeman as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league, despite taking a step back this year and dealing with some injuries. He will be tested with that rush from Ware, but they do have good protection from Penn at left tackle. I expect Dallas to win this game, but they are definitely a hard team to trust. That is why I think we see a surprise effort from TB in keeping this an interesting and being an active dog in helping this one cash on the over. I will be contemplating a possible tease with Dallas and the over as the week evolves. For now, I wanted to get this one locked in under the key number of 47 which is one of the most important key totals number. I have Dallas set at -7 with a total of 49 and am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Patriots/Broncos over (45)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Getting this play at 45 is vitally important. I do not forsee any further movement favoring the under and therefore do not expect 45(-110) to become available. Consequently, this is rare circumstance where buying the hook on a total is a wise investment. When the NFL gets to the final weeks of the season, the lines tighten up and are as sharp as ever. The NFL is truly about key numbers and making sure you know the percentages of final score possibilities. In this case, the total opened up at 46.5, was bet down to 45.5 by Wednesday morning when I made my wager and was bet right back up tot 46 and even 46.5 depending on your outlet. I really feel that someone was pushing that number down in order to buy it right back up. Getting this game at 45 is a complete steal and we are now covering a number that is the 12th most common final score. In addition, getting a NE game at 45 or less, it not even fair since they can hit that one their own on a good day. Not only do I have it set at 48.5, but with the Broncos facing the first real test on defense in quite awhile, I think we could see an explosion of points on Sunday. Many of my thoughts on this play can be found in the writeup for my teaser in this game making up Play #1 of this week. Don't be surprised if we see NE breakout for a big offensive game but Tebow to answer a few of those scores. I expect a competitive game with NE ending up on top. However, this one could very well eclipse 55. I am rolling with the value and taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Jets/Eagles over (43)(-120) 2x (Locked)

Here's another one where covering the key number of 43 is vitally important. 43 represents the 5th most common final score in the NFL and with a defense as good as the Jets, it's important to cover this important number. Therefore, I am going to eat the juice in this case and buy the hook. I am very confident that we see this one close at or around 45 by game time and that 43 will never become available on a 10 cent line. I don't recommend buying the hook on totals in general, but in the NFL I would argue this can be profitable if you know how to manipulate key numbers. In this game, you have a great defense in the Jets going against Vick without it's defensive quarterback in Leanord at safety. That really hurts the cohesiveness of the Jets defense going into Philly as they are finally starting to get healthy on offense. I expect Maclin to be hobbled a bit, but Jackson, Celek and McCoy are healthy and ready to help Vick salvage what they can of the season. Philly is a top 5 team rushing the ball in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Even though the Jets are a top 5 defense against the run, the Jets have had problems all year giving up points against decent offenses. In addition, Rex Ryan defenses have struggled just a bit against mobile quarterbacks such as Vick. I have this one set at 47 and we're buying the hook at cover the key number of 43. I really like this play and expect a competitive game with Philly playing at home. We are getting a great number here and I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Falcons (-11.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

This is a bad number as I should have gotten 11 earlier in the week, but I see no reason to buy the hook down to 11 as that is not a key number I am worried about in this game. Bottom line is that the Jaguars are mash unit that scored 3 touchdowns last week on defense and special teams to beat the Bucs. I don't expect any such success against the Falcons. To make matters worse, the Jags are playing their 3rd game in 11 days thanks to a scheduling quirk and this game is in Atlanta where we all know the Falcons have dominated under Matty Ice. This is a huge spot for the Falcons to come out and stomp on someone in front of a national audience who has pretty much written them off this year after a slow start. The Falcons have to win this game to stay in the playoff race so I just don't see how we can have a let down on Thursday. The stats show a huge advantage on offense in favor of the Falcons and despite some favorable stats on defense for the Jags, those high ratings were earned by a defense that is now mostly on IR. I just don't see how anyone can back the Jags in this horrible situational spot. I have Falcons set at -14 at home in this game and I wish I would have gotten -11. However, I would play this game at -12 and maybe even a little higher. This is the first double digit favorite I have played all year and I generally look to avoid such plays. However, in this case, the situational spot is so bad for the Jags and so good for the Falcons, that I have to pull the trigger. I am rolling with the Falcons for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Steelers/49'ers under (39) 1x (Locked)

I know about the injuries to the Steelers defense and to SF's Patrick Willis. However, Big Ben is banged up as well and this one sets up very similarly to the Balty/SF under we cashed on the Thanksgiving. Both defenses are top 10 in both rushing and passing DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR% and SF is actually top 5 and even #1 in many of those defensive stats. In addition, both defensive schemes allow for the younger backups to excel where needed. Pit's LB's crew is bit banged up, but I don't expect too much of a dropoff on Monday. On the other side, even though Willis will probably not play, the rest of that great defense is healthy. I am jumping on this one now because I just don't see a better number being available closer to the game. If Ben is announced out, the total will drop even further down the 37 range where I have it set. Even though I have it set at 37, I expect this one to be much lower scoring with a classic 17-13 type game. Some books don't even have this game up on the board because of the questions marks, but I am assuming Willis is out and Ben plays. Assuming Ben plays, however, he will not be at full strength or have his full mobility which makes him so dangerous. Therefore, I don't think it matters and the under is the play here. As I said above, I have this one set at 37 with Ben playing. If he is announced out, this one will steam lower. Regardless, I don't see this one getting above 39 so I am locking it in now. I am rolling with the under for 1x now and may add some more to this one down the line depending on the final injury report. Good luck.

[Pick'nParlays]

niners should put up 17. Baltimore has a slightly stronger defense than Pitt IMHO. Leaving 22 points for Pitt. I agree that if Ben isnt able to go....This is the play. At the moment I wouldnt feel good about pulling anything under 41

[fecgp40]

interesting line movement on the o/u in the dallas game... went from 47.5 to 46.5 on 5 dimes today.

[Trivial]

interesting line movement on the o/u in the dallas game... went from 47.5 to 46.5 on 5 dimes today.

Yup. 46.5 almost everywhere now. Cannot figure out why.

[MrXYZ]

My book was juicing the 47 under & dropped it back to 46.5.

[Pick'nParlays]

21-0 but TB looks awful.... Dallas wont score 48 themselves

[Dave88]

Big TD on half time there.

[Pick'nParlays]

agreed

[Pick'nParlays]

stupid field goal austin was wide open

[rnoutlaw21]

NO FG wtf???

[Love The Action]

Out having a few drinks with some friends and fellow sports investors...having fun, but can't believe this Dallas game is going to push. Just kick the fuking football. That's 8x in profit I have missed out on over the last two weeks now. WTF.

[Dave88]

I don't believe what I just witnessed.
that cost me a f..kin fortune!

[Pick'nParlays]

that was lame. glad we got it at 46 and not 47

[fecgp40]

I got 46.5.

[fecgp40]

Fukkk the NFL

[Overbettor]

I got 46.5.

You're not the only one. I thought for sure they would kick the field goal on 4th and 6 to go up 3 scores with a minute and change left. Tough loss

[Pick'nParlays]

when I see LTA laying -120...... you should do the same. The difference is always big. Im a HUGE fan of buying points but only with key numbers like 43/44 or tonights game for example. Good job LTA. It wasn't a loss and that was a sick twist.

[fecgp40]

You're not the only one. I thought for sure they would kick the field goal on 4th and 6 to go up 3 scores with a minute and change left. Tough loss

You know it's funny... I was thinking with over 8 minutes left needing only one point for the win... "no one else is going to score. I'm going to lose by half a point." And I did.

[Pick'nParlays]

You know it's funny... I was thinking with over 8 minutes left needing only one point for the win... "no one else is going to score. I'm going to lose by half a point." And I did.

live betting is a get way to hedge if your close and have a gut feeling

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

Yea ridiculous go for on for it on 4th down just to kneel it on first down....

[LolsMcwinsey]

when I see LTA laying -120...... you should do the same. The difference is always big. Im a HUGE fan of buying points but only with key numbers like 43/44 or tonights game for example. Good job LTA. It wasn't a loss and that was a sick twist.

Go fukk yourself

[Pick'nParlays]

Go fukk yourself

your mom tired me out

[1Time!]

Having 46.5 & somehow not getting it over just sums up the weekend (Aussie timeline) I have had! Blah!
NFL, College BBall & Soccer! It's the rollercoaster we ride!

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Correlated Teaser

Patriots PK/over (39.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Here's a game that I actually expect Tebow to play well and am counting on him to do so. I may also play the over in this game as a stand-alone play. Although the Broncos defense is vastly improved since they played GB, this is the same type of offense they will be facing. Let's face it, Brady is surgical out there and his stats tell the story. Offensively, NE is as good as it gets and along with GB and NO really represents the top three offenses according to the advanced stats. I think NE will have no problem hitting up the Denver defense for at least 4 touchdowns. However, I really think Tebow has a good game against this poor NE defense. NE ranks in the bottom 10 in the important advanced categories and is susceptible to both the run and pass. Tebow should be able get 21 points at home against this poor defense. NE is not the Bears and I expect the power rushing of McGahee and the read option of Tebow to be successful on Sunday against the Pats. In the end, I have the Pats set at -7 favorites so getting them at a pk is perfect. I just don't see Belicheck and Brady losing to this Denver team. I have the total set at 48.5 and it's currently at 45.5. I am going to scope out the line movement in hopes of getting 45, at which time I will probably lock in a play on the over in this game as well. For now, I am teasing the Pats down to a pk and the over to 39.5 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cowboys/Buccaneers over (46) 1x (Locked)

Busy day at work, so just getting around to posting this one now. I expect this one to go up 47 by Wednesday and getting this one under 47 is key. The main reason I like the over here is the poor defensive play exhibited by both teams. At least the Cowboys have Ware rushing off the end and causing some havoc. However, the Bucs have been ravaged by injuries to its entire defense, including across the entire starting defensive line. The Bucs defense is ranked in the bottom 5 in both rushing and passing advanced statistical categories, while Dallas has dipped from a top 15 defense to a bottom 15 defense in the same stats. On offense, the Cowboys are clicking and have Austin back to round a very dangerous receiving corps. TB is especially bad against the pass and I expect a big game out of Romo. On the other side, this is a prime time game and TB will play hard. I expect them to find some success against Dallas and score for 3 td's in a surprising effort at home. I still view Freeman as one of the top young quarterbacks in the league, despite taking a step back this year and dealing with some injuries. He will be tested with that rush from Ware, but they do have good protection from Penn at left tackle. I expect Dallas to win this game, but they are definitely a hard team to trust. That is why I think we see a surprise effort from TB in keeping this an interesting and being an active dog in helping this one cash on the over. I will be contemplating a possible tease with Dallas and the over as the week evolves. For now, I wanted to get this one locked in under the key number of 47 which is one of the most important key totals number. I have Dallas set at -7 with a total of 49 and am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Patriots/Broncos over (45)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Getting this play at 45 is vitally important. I do not forsee any further movement favoring the under and therefore do not expect 45(-110) to become available. Consequently, this is rare circumstance where buying the hook on a total is a wise investment. When the NFL gets to the final weeks of the season, the lines tighten up and are as sharp as ever. The NFL is truly about key numbers and making sure you know the percentages of final score possibilities. In this case, the total opened up at 46.5, was bet down to 45.5 by Wednesday morning when I made my wager and was bet right back up tot 46 and even 46.5 depending on your outlet. I really feel that someone was pushing that number down in order to buy it right back up. Getting this game at 45 is a complete steal and we are now covering a number that is the 12th most common final score. In addition, getting a NE game at 45 or less, it not even fair since they can hit that one their own on a good day. Not only do I have it set at 48.5, but with the Broncos facing the first real test on defense in quite awhile, I think we could see an explosion of points on Sunday. Many of my thoughts on this play can be found in the writeup for my teaser in this game making up Play #1 of this week. Don't be surprised if we see NE breakout for a big offensive game but Tebow to answer a few of those scores. I expect a competitive game with NE ending up on top. However, this one could very well eclipse 55. I am rolling with the value and taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Jets/Eagles over (43)(-120) 2x (Locked)

Here's another one where covering the key number of 43 is vitally important. 43 represents the 5th most common final score in the NFL and with a defense as good as the Jets, it's important to cover this important number. Therefore, I am going to eat the juice in this case and buy the hook. I am very confident that we see this one close at or around 45 by game time and that 43 will never become available on a 10 cent line. I don't recommend buying the hook on totals in general, but in the NFL I would argue this can be profitable if you know how to manipulate key numbers. In this game, you have a great defense in the Jets going against Vick without it's defensive quarterback in Leanord at safety. That really hurts the cohesiveness of the Jets defense going into Philly as they are finally starting to get healthy on offense. I expect Maclin to be hobbled a bit, but Jackson, Celek and McCoy are healthy and ready to help Vick salvage what they can of the season. Philly is a top 5 team rushing the ball in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Even though the Jets are a top 5 defense against the run, the Jets have had problems all year giving up points against decent offenses. In addition, Rex Ryan defenses have struggled just a bit against mobile quarterbacks such as Vick. I have this one set at 47 and we're buying the hook at cover the key number of 43. I really like this play and expect a competitive game with Philly playing at home. We are getting a great number here and I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #5

Falcons (-11.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

This is a bad number as I should have gotten 11 earlier in the week, but I see no reason to buy the hook down to 11 as that is not a key number I am worried about in this game. Bottom line is that the Jaguars are mash unit that scored 3 touchdowns last week on defense and special teams to beat the Bucs. I don't expect any such success against the Falcons. To make matters worse, the Jags are playing their 3rd game in 11 days thanks to a scheduling quirk and this game is in Atlanta where we all know the Falcons have dominated under Matty Ice. This is a huge spot for the Falcons to come out and stomp on someone in front of a national audience who has pretty much written them off this year after a slow start. The Falcons have to win this game to stay in the playoff race so I just don't see how we can have a let down on Thursday. The stats show a huge advantage on offense in favor of the Falcons and despite some favorable stats on defense for the Jags, those high ratings were earned by a defense that is now mostly on IR. I just don't see how anyone can back the Jags in this horrible situational spot. I have Falcons set at -14 at home in this game and I wish I would have gotten -11. However, I would play this game at -12 and maybe even a little higher. This is the first double digit favorite I have played all year and I generally look to avoid such plays. However, in this case, the situational spot is so bad for the Jags and so good for the Falcons, that I have to pull the trigger. I am rolling with the Falcons for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Steelers/49'ers under (39) 1x (Locked)

I know about the injuries to the Steelers defense and to SF's Patrick Willis. However, Big Ben is banged up as well and this one sets up very similarly to the Balty/SF under we cashed on the Thanksgiving. Both defenses are top 10 in both rushing and passing DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR% and SF is actually top 5 and even #1 in many of those defensive stats. In addition, both defensive schemes allow for the younger backups to excel where needed. Pit's LB's crew is bit banged up, but I don't expect too much of a dropoff on Monday. On the other side, even though Willis will probably not play, the rest of that great defense is healthy. I am jumping on this one now because I just don't see a better number being available closer to the game. If Ben is announced out, the total will drop even further down the 37 range where I have it set. Even though I have it set at 37, I expect this one to be much lower scoring with a classic 17-13 type game. Some books don't even have this game up on the board because of the questions marks, but I am assuming Willis is out and Ben plays. Assuming Ben plays, however, he will not be at full strength or have his full mobility which makes him so dangerous. Therefore, I don't think it matters and the under is the play here. As I said above, I have this one set at 37 with Ben playing. If he is announced out, this one will steam lower. Regardless, I don't see this one getting above 39 so I am locking it in now. I am rolling with the under for 1x now and may add some more to this one down the line depending on the final injury report. Good luck.

Play #7

Seahawks/Bears under (36)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Another game where I feel buying the hook is necessary. I wish I could have gotten 37, but that never materialized. I'll try to get a writeup posted later. Going backto bed now. I have this set at 35, but I expect this to be much lower with Hanie at qb. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

How bout saints and giants games over?

No play on either of these totals for me. I see no value. Good luck with whatever you choose