LTA's NFL PLays

[pacocn]

great calls Lta, where do you find all your advanced
stats in Nfl?

[Love The Action]

great calls Lta, where do you find all your advanced
stats in Nfl?

I get stats from many different outlets but my most used sites are advancednflstats.com, footballoutsiders.com, NFL.com, espn and teamrankings.com, covers.com, et.al.

[lfep]

Here's another question for ya LTA, what do you use to track your bets? Excel? Or...? If Excel, mind sharing the template?

[riffraff24]

Hey LTA - Do you have any thoughts on the Raiders/Bears Total for Sunday? I know it's probably tough to call with Cutler out.

[pacocn]

I get stats from many different outlets but my most used sites are advancednflstats.com, footballoutsiders.com, NFL.com, espn and teamrankings.com, covers.com, et.al.

Lta, thanks for the info.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Packers/Lions under (56) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I know this might not be a popular pick here on SBR. I've seen a lot of the better posters riding the over and a lot of guys saying the under is a sucker bet and they are the books are trying to bait people into taking the under here. However, the only way this one flies over a posted total of 56 (and I would not take this at any less than 55) is if we get some unusual special teams' td's, fumble return td's or pick 6's. I know no one wants to root for an under on Thanksgiving, especially in a Packers game. However, I'm going to do just that. First, the Lions have solid home field advantage here. Ford Field will be packed and rocking. The Packers, as great as they are, are also a bit undisciplined when it comes to stupid penalties such as false starts and the like, although, they have improved dramatically in this category from last year to this year. Nevertheless, I just see that Detroit defense stepping up enough to limit the Packers offense just enough to keep this one under. As I mentioned in another thread, the Lions defense is top 5 overall and top 3 in the pass in Def DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. That is very solid and the Lions boast one of the top defensive lines in the league. That defensive line will be looking to hit Rodgers wherever possible and barring some BS unnecessary roughness penalties, should have a solid game against Rodgers today. On the other side, it will be difficult for GB to stop Megatron, but other than that particular weapon, I like the matchups between the GB running defense and the Detroit rushing offense and between the GB defensive backfield and the rest of the Detroit receivers. Kevin Smith is not the real deal after just joining the team and having a good game against TB. I don't see him racking up over 130 yards today like last week. A total of 56 is very high for the NFL and some would say that means the books are leaning to the over. I suppose that's possible, but with this being Thanksgiving the books knew they were going to get a lot of action on the over thereby providing too much value on the under to pass up. I have this one set at 52 and we are getting 4 points of value here. For me, that is just too much to pass up. Over the last couple days, we have seen Pinny juicing the under big time at 55.5 while square books like Bodog were heavy on the over at 56.5. This morning, I saw Pinny drop to 55 with juice on the under despite 75% of all bets at that book on the over. I suppose it's possible that Pinny is trying to "sucker" in under money, but I think the better explanation is that sharp money bough up all the 55.5 action and forced Pinny down to 55. If we see this one go below 55, that is confirmation to me that the under is definitely the play here. I suppose some of you will disagree and that's ok, but I love the value on the under at 56 which eclipses the top 23 key totals numbers in the NFL. If this one is going to go over, it will required flawless offensive play along with some turnovers, short fields and special teams scoring. I don't think we see that today and I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Dolphins/Cowboys under (46) 1x (Locked) WINNER
I am going to play with fire and fade the line movement in this game. I just don't see this one going over 46 points. As I stated in my notes above, I don't think Matt Moore will fare well against a dangerous Dallas defensive line playing behind the boisterous home crowd. I do worry that Dallas will be able to pass on the Miami secondary and that is my biggest concern. However, Miami has a top 10 defense against the run in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P and WPA advanced efficiency stats and I expect them to play well against the Cowboys rushing attack. By making Dallas one dimensional, you put more pressure on Romo and that is how I expect Miami to approach this game. I don't expect that Miami will be able to stop Dallas, but I think they can slow them down and limit the big plays. On the other side, I think this is a great game for Rob Ryan and Dallas' defense to shine. I think we see a game where Dallas dominates Miami on the defensive side of the ball and limits Moore's play making ability. I don't expect Miami's rushing offense to have a good game against Dallas and I don't believe in Moore in this spot going against such a fast defense like the Cowboys. With Miles Austin missing, I think Miami can hold Dallas to 27 points or less and I don't see Miami scoring more than 17. I have this game set at 43 and expect a 24-17 type of game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

49'ers/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER
I have to leave for Thanksgiving dinner and I'm going to buy the hook in this rare instance as the line movement at Pinny appears to indicate that the total has topped out at 40.5 and 41 is the most important key number in NFL totals. Pinny is currently juicing the under at -109 and if the under money continues a drop back down to 40 cannot be that far behind. It is true that we have seen true steam on the over as the total went from 38.5 to 40 at multiple books (including Pinny) all at the same time around 7:31 pm last night. That is true steam and would indicate the over is the play. However, I'm not convinced. Both teams are remarkably similar in offensive and defensive advanced stats. Both teams are top 5 defensively against both the rush and the pass in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I have not seen such a defensive matchup all year to date that featured two top 5 ranked defenses in advanced stats and that is one of the reasons I expect great defensive play. On offense, both teams are middle of the pack in those same advanced efficiency stats. However, Baltimore's offense is night and day when it comes to away/home scores and really piles on the points at home where they average over 30. Therefore, that could be the cause of the steam and is a definite concern. In addition, SF has a much improved offense, especially with Smith playing well. Nevertheless, I love covering the key number of 41 in this spot as I have this one set at 38, thereby giving us a full FG of value here. I am going to buy the hook to cover 41 and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Redskins/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

I just don't see this one getting above the 38 I currently get, so I am locking it in now. You have two solid defenses going against two weak offenses. Both Seattle and Washington are ranked in the top 12 of the league in overall defensive EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both dominate against the run where they rank top 8 in those same categories (Seattle top 3). Offensively, however, is a different story where each team ranks bottom 5 offensively. I am not particularly impressed by either field goal kicker on these teams and I expect a defensive struggle. I have this one set at 35.5 and we're getting almost a field goal of value, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Trivial]

Play #4

Redskins/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

I just don't see this one getting above the 38 I currently get, so I am locking it in now. You have two solid defenses going against two weak offenses. Both Seattle and Washington are ranked in the top 12 of the league in overall defensive EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both dominate against the run where they rank top 8 in those same categories (Seattle top 3). Offensively, however, is a different story where each team ranks bottom 5 offensively. I am not particularly impressed by either field goal kicker on these teams and I expect a defensive struggle. I have this one set at 35.5 and we're getting almost a field goal of value, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

This play looks solid. Good luck. I think I will lock into it.

Some plays I am working on myself (not sure how many I will actually go forward with) are:

Bills +9.5
Bills OVER 41.5
Arizona +3
Vikings +9.5
Vikings UNDER 44
Carolina UNDER 45.5
Chicago +4
Denver OVER 42
Eagles +3.5
Eagles UNDER 50.5
KC +10.5
KC UNDER 40

[Love The Action]

While I hate to back a team like San Diego, I just can't believe a guy like Tebow who, might be a great leader with all the intangibles, but just doesn't have the physical passing tools to be a top flight NFL QB, will beat the Chargers or even keep this one close on the road.

I am leaning Chargers -5.5 (hate playing faves at that number as it's a classic "dog" spread). What do you guys thing about that game?

[jonathon1995]

I'm putting a cheap parlay on Denver ML, I know its not smart, but what Denver is doing is not conventional that why other teams are having trouble and the Denver Defense is not to bad either.

[BigDan]

Sad as it is im scared of Teblow..

[kobefanatic]

like the chargers here, chargers have been sucking for weeks, but it opened as 7 point faves to a hot denver team

[pacocn]

Lta, Vince young at QB seemed to revitalize the philly Defense
and Pats are beat up badly in their secondary. They also lost
one of their starting OL guys (connelly) I am really liking Philly +3
and the ml. Any thoughts?

[pacocn]

I refuse to get Tebowed again (if that is a verb)
but i do lean Chargers at home.

[Love The Action]

I'm putting a cheap parlay on Denver ML, I know its not smart, but what Denver is doing is not conventional that why other teams are having trouble and the Denver Defense is not to bad either.

The read option is not unconventional. It's been around forever and was tried unsuccessfully back in the 60's. Granted, this is a newer variation with new "wrinkles" every week. However, the option is not unconventional and is easily defensed in the NFL because of the defensive speed and ability to maintain assignments.

For whatever reason, the Jets were stupid and allowed Tebow to run. I can't imagine defensive coordinators do not continually pack the box with 8 men and force Tebow to throw. Make him beat you with his arm instead of his legs and he will not beat you because he does not have the physical tools to do so. He's a NFL quarterback that can't throw and he will be exposed as such. The question is when not if and I think it starts today.

[pacocn]

Lta, i pulled the trigger, Chargers -5.5
win or lose it is the correct play.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Packers/Lions under (56) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I know this might not be a popular pick here on SBR. I've seen a lot of the better posters riding the over and a lot of guys saying the under is a sucker bet and they are the books are trying to bait people into taking the under here. However, the only way this one flies over a posted total of 56 (and I would not take this at any less than 55) is if we get some unusual special teams' td's, fumble return td's or pick 6's. I know no one wants to root for an under on Thanksgiving, especially in a Packers game. However, I'm going to do just that. First, the Lions have solid home field advantage here. Ford Field will be packed and rocking. The Packers, as great as they are, are also a bit undisciplined when it comes to stupid penalties such as false starts and the like, although, they have improved dramatically in this category from last year to this year. Nevertheless, I just see that Detroit defense stepping up enough to limit the Packers offense just enough to keep this one under. As I mentioned in another thread, the Lions defense is top 5 overall and top 3 in the pass in Def DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. That is very solid and the Lions boast one of the top defensive lines in the league. That defensive line will be looking to hit Rodgers wherever possible and barring some BS unnecessary roughness penalties, should have a solid game against Rodgers today. On the other side, it will be difficult for GB to stop Megatron, but other than that particular weapon, I like the matchups between the GB running defense and the Detroit rushing offense and between the GB defensive backfield and the rest of the Detroit receivers. Kevin Smith is not the real deal after just joining the team and having a good game against TB. I don't see him racking up over 130 yards today like last week. A total of 56 is very high for the NFL and some would say that means the books are leaning to the over. I suppose that's possible, but with this being Thanksgiving the books knew they were going to get a lot of action on the over thereby providing too much value on the under to pass up. I have this one set at 52 and we are getting 4 points of value here. For me, that is just too much to pass up. Over the last couple days, we have seen Pinny juicing the under big time at 55.5 while square books like Bodog were heavy on the over at 56.5. This morning, I saw Pinny drop to 55 with juice on the under despite 75% of all bets at that book on the over. I suppose it's possible that Pinny is trying to "sucker" in under money, but I think the better explanation is that sharp money bough up all the 55.5 action and forced Pinny down to 55. If we see this one go below 55, that is confirmation to me that the under is definitely the play here. I suppose some of you will disagree and that's ok, but I love the value on the under at 56 which eclipses the top 23 key totals numbers in the NFL. If this one is going to go over, it will required flawless offensive play along with some turnovers, short fields and special teams scoring. I don't think we see that today and I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Dolphins/Cowboys under (46) 1x (Locked) WINNER
I am going to play with fire and fade the line movement in this game. I just don't see this one going over 46 points. As I stated in my notes above, I don't think Matt Moore will fare well against a dangerous Dallas defensive line playing behind the boisterous home crowd. I do worry that Dallas will be able to pass on the Miami secondary and that is my biggest concern. However, Miami has a top 10 defense against the run in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P and WPA advanced efficiency stats and I expect them to play well against the Cowboys rushing attack. By making Dallas one dimensional, you put more pressure on Romo and that is how I expect Miami to approach this game. I don't expect that Miami will be able to stop Dallas, but I think they can slow them down and limit the big plays. On the other side, I think this is a great game for Rob Ryan and Dallas' defense to shine. I think we see a game where Dallas dominates Miami on the defensive side of the ball and limits Moore's play making ability. I don't expect Miami's rushing offense to have a good game against Dallas and I don't believe in Moore in this spot going against such a fast defense like the Cowboys. With Miles Austin missing, I think Miami can hold Dallas to 27 points or less and I don't see Miami scoring more than 17. I have this game set at 43 and expect a 24-17 type of game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

49'ers/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER
I have to leave for Thanksgiving dinner and I'm going to buy the hook in this rare instance as the line movement at Pinny appears to indicate that the total has topped out at 40.5 and 41 is the most important key number in NFL totals. Pinny is currently juicing the under at -109 and if the under money continues a drop back down to 40 cannot be that far behind. It is true that we have seen true steam on the over as the total went from 38.5 to 40 at multiple books (including Pinny) all at the same time around 7:31 pm last night. That is true steam and would indicate the over is the play. However, I'm not convinced. Both teams are remarkably similar in offensive and defensive advanced stats. Both teams are top 5 defensively against both the rush and the pass in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I have not seen such a defensive matchup all year to date that featured two top 5 ranked defenses in advanced stats and that is one of the reasons I expect great defensive play. On offense, both teams are middle of the pack in those same advanced efficiency stats. However, Baltimore's offense is night and day when it comes to away/home scores and really piles on the points at home where they average over 30. Therefore, that could be the cause of the steam and is a definite concern. In addition, SF has a much improved offense, especially with Smith playing well. Nevertheless, I love covering the key number of 41 in this spot as I have this one set at 38, thereby giving us a full FG of value here. I am going to buy the hook to cover 41 and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Redskins/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

I just don't see this one getting above the 38 I currently get, so I am locking it in now. You have two solid defenses going against two weak offenses. Both Seattle and Washington are ranked in the top 12 of the league in overall defensive EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both dominate against the run where they rank top 8 in those same categories (Seattle top 3). Offensively, however, is a different story where each team ranks bottom 5 offensively. I am not particularly impressed by either field goal kicker on these teams and I expect a defensive struggle. I have this one set at 35.5 and we're getting almost a field goal of value, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Browns/Bengals under (38) 1x (Locked)

Here's one that makes sense according to the "numbers," but could end up going over because of young athletic playmakers. I have this one set at 35.5 just like Play #4, so I am going to pull the trigger on the 2.5 points of value. However, both plays concern me. In this game, I worry that AJ Green will be in the lineup but I recognize that the Browns have a solid young cornerback in Haden to matchup against Green and I'm hoping the injury will slow the Dalton-to-Green gravy train. Plus, the strength of the Cleveland defense is stopping the pass where they rank a surprising 7th in Def Pass EPA and EPA/P, while 2nd overall against the pass in Def Pass WPA. Perhaps that high ranking is because teams are running all over them as they are ranked in the bottom 10 of advanced efficiency stats in stopping the run. Nevertheless, I will gladly give up some long methodical drives all day as long as they end in field goals. That is exactly what I expect as both teams like to extend their offensive possessions and rank 10th and 12th in time of possession. This one is a local rivalry and I expect a more smashmouth game than finesse. As long as we don't see special teams td returns or turnovers returned for td's, I think this one should be in the 20-14 range. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Lta, i pulled the trigger, Chargers -5.5
win or lose it is the correct play.

I'm pretty sure I will be on it with you. I''m going to see if the Tebow love will knock it down to -5. Even if the Bronco's win today, I may institute the "Tebow Chase System." Sooner or later the Broncos are going to get blown out.

Good luck today

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Packers/Lions under (56) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I know this might not be a popular pick here on SBR. I've seen a lot of the better posters riding the over and a lot of guys saying the under is a sucker bet and they are the books are trying to bait people into taking the under here. However, the only way this one flies over a posted total of 56 (and I would not take this at any less than 55) is if we get some unusual special teams' td's, fumble return td's or pick 6's. I know no one wants to root for an under on Thanksgiving, especially in a Packers game. However, I'm going to do just that. First, the Lions have solid home field advantage here. Ford Field will be packed and rocking. The Packers, as great as they are, are also a bit undisciplined when it comes to stupid penalties such as false starts and the like, although, they have improved dramatically in this category from last year to this year. Nevertheless, I just see that Detroit defense stepping up enough to limit the Packers offense just enough to keep this one under. As I mentioned in another thread, the Lions defense is top 5 overall and top 3 in the pass in Def DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. That is very solid and the Lions boast one of the top defensive lines in the league. That defensive line will be looking to hit Rodgers wherever possible and barring some BS unnecessary roughness penalties, should have a solid game against Rodgers today. On the other side, it will be difficult for GB to stop Megatron, but other than that particular weapon, I like the matchups between the GB running defense and the Detroit rushing offense and between the GB defensive backfield and the rest of the Detroit receivers. Kevin Smith is not the real deal after just joining the team and having a good game against TB. I don't see him racking up over 130 yards today like last week. A total of 56 is very high for the NFL and some would say that means the books are leaning to the over. I suppose that's possible, but with this being Thanksgiving the books knew they were going to get a lot of action on the over thereby providing too much value on the under to pass up. I have this one set at 52 and we are getting 4 points of value here. For me, that is just too much to pass up. Over the last couple days, we have seen Pinny juicing the under big time at 55.5 while square books like Bodog were heavy on the over at 56.5. This morning, I saw Pinny drop to 55 with juice on the under despite 75% of all bets at that book on the over. I suppose it's possible that Pinny is trying to "sucker" in under money, but I think the better explanation is that sharp money bough up all the 55.5 action and forced Pinny down to 55. If we see this one go below 55, that is confirmation to me that the under is definitely the play here. I suppose some of you will disagree and that's ok, but I love the value on the under at 56 which eclipses the top 23 key totals numbers in the NFL. If this one is going to go over, it will required flawless offensive play along with some turnovers, short fields and special teams scoring. I don't think we see that today and I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Dolphins/Cowboys under (46) 1x (Locked) WINNER
I am going to play with fire and fade the line movement in this game. I just don't see this one going over 46 points. As I stated in my notes above, I don't think Matt Moore will fare well against a dangerous Dallas defensive line playing behind the boisterous home crowd. I do worry that Dallas will be able to pass on the Miami secondary and that is my biggest concern. However, Miami has a top 10 defense against the run in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P and WPA advanced efficiency stats and I expect them to play well against the Cowboys rushing attack. By making Dallas one dimensional, you put more pressure on Romo and that is how I expect Miami to approach this game. I don't expect that Miami will be able to stop Dallas, but I think they can slow them down and limit the big plays. On the other side, I think this is a great game for Rob Ryan and Dallas' defense to shine. I think we see a game where Dallas dominates Miami on the defensive side of the ball and limits Moore's play making ability. I don't expect Miami's rushing offense to have a good game against Dallas and I don't believe in Moore in this spot going against such a fast defense like the Cowboys. With Miles Austin missing, I think Miami can hold Dallas to 27 points or less and I don't see Miami scoring more than 17. I have this game set at 43 and expect a 24-17 type of game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

49'ers/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER
I have to leave for Thanksgiving dinner and I'm going to buy the hook in this rare instance as the line movement at Pinny appears to indicate that the total has topped out at 40.5 and 41 is the most important key number in NFL totals. Pinny is currently juicing the under at -109 and if the under money continues a drop back down to 40 cannot be that far behind. It is true that we have seen true steam on the over as the total went from 38.5 to 40 at multiple books (including Pinny) all at the same time around 7:31 pm last night. That is true steam and would indicate the over is the play. However, I'm not convinced. Both teams are remarkably similar in offensive and defensive advanced stats. Both teams are top 5 defensively against both the rush and the pass in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I have not seen such a defensive matchup all year to date that featured two top 5 ranked defenses in advanced stats and that is one of the reasons I expect great defensive play. On offense, both teams are middle of the pack in those same advanced efficiency stats. However, Baltimore's offense is night and day when it comes to away/home scores and really piles on the points at home where they average over 30. Therefore, that could be the cause of the steam and is a definite concern. In addition, SF has a much improved offense, especially with Smith playing well. Nevertheless, I love covering the key number of 41 in this spot as I have this one set at 38, thereby giving us a full FG of value here. I am going to buy the hook to cover 41 and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Redskins/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

I just don't see this one getting above the 38 I currently get, so I am locking it in now. You have two solid defenses going against two weak offenses. Both Seattle and Washington are ranked in the top 12 of the league in overall defensive EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both dominate against the run where they rank top 8 in those same categories (Seattle top 3). Offensively, however, is a different story where each team ranks bottom 5 offensively. I am not particularly impressed by either field goal kicker on these teams and I expect a defensive struggle. I have this one set at 35.5 and we're getting almost a field goal of value, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Browns/Bengals under (38) 1x (Locked)

Here's one that makes sense according to the "numbers," but could end up going over because of young athletic playmakers. I have this one set at 35.5 just like Play #4, so I am going to pull the trigger on the 2.5 points of value. However, both plays concern me. In this game, I worry that AJ Green will be in the lineup but I recognize that the Browns have a solid young cornerback in Haden to matchup against Green and I'm hoping the injury will slow the Dalton-to-Green gravy train. Plus, the strength of the Cleveland defense is stopping the pass where they rank a surprising 7th in Def Pass EPA and EPA/P, while 2nd overall against the pass in Def Pass WPA. Perhaps that high ranking is because teams are running all over them as they are ranked in the bottom 10 of advanced efficiency stats in stopping the run. Nevertheless, I will gladly give up some long methodical drives all day as long as they end in field goals. That is exactly what I expect as both teams like to extend their offensive possessions and rank 10th and 12th in time of possession. This one is a local rivalry and I expect a more smashmouth game than finesse. As long as we don't see special teams td returns or turnovers returned for td's, I think this one should be in the 20-14 range. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Teaser

Bears (+9)/Redskins (+9) 1x (-110) (Locked)

No time for real writeups but these teams are two dogs that I think are most likely to play well well and keep it within a td and maybe even win. I missed out on the early value, so I am going to take a shot and tease them across the key numbers of 3, 4, 5 and 7 while pushing on 9. I don't see either game ending with more than a 9 point margin of victory regardless of who wins, so I'm going to roll with the tease for 1x. Good luck.

[pacocn]

Lta tailed you on your teaser, and added Clev/Bengals
under lets get em today

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Packers/Lions under (56) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I know this might not be a popular pick here on SBR. I've seen a lot of the better posters riding the over and a lot of guys saying the under is a sucker bet and they are the books are trying to bait people into taking the under here. However, the only way this one flies over a posted total of 56 (and I would not take this at any less than 55) is if we get some unusual special teams' td's, fumble return td's or pick 6's. I know no one wants to root for an under on Thanksgiving, especially in a Packers game. However, I'm going to do just that. First, the Lions have solid home field advantage here. Ford Field will be packed and rocking. The Packers, as great as they are, are also a bit undisciplined when it comes to stupid penalties such as false starts and the like, although, they have improved dramatically in this category from last year to this year. Nevertheless, I just see that Detroit defense stepping up enough to limit the Packers offense just enough to keep this one under. As I mentioned in another thread, the Lions defense is top 5 overall and top 3 in the pass in Def DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. That is very solid and the Lions boast one of the top defensive lines in the league. That defensive line will be looking to hit Rodgers wherever possible and barring some BS unnecessary roughness penalties, should have a solid game against Rodgers today. On the other side, it will be difficult for GB to stop Megatron, but other than that particular weapon, I like the matchups between the GB running defense and the Detroit rushing offense and between the GB defensive backfield and the rest of the Detroit receivers. Kevin Smith is not the real deal after just joining the team and having a good game against TB. I don't see him racking up over 130 yards today like last week. A total of 56 is very high for the NFL and some would say that means the books are leaning to the over. I suppose that's possible, but with this being Thanksgiving the books knew they were going to get a lot of action on the over thereby providing too much value on the under to pass up. I have this one set at 52 and we are getting 4 points of value here. For me, that is just too much to pass up. Over the last couple days, we have seen Pinny juicing the under big time at 55.5 while square books like Bodog were heavy on the over at 56.5. This morning, I saw Pinny drop to 55 with juice on the under despite 75% of all bets at that book on the over. I suppose it's possible that Pinny is trying to "sucker" in under money, but I think the better explanation is that sharp money bough up all the 55.5 action and forced Pinny down to 55. If we see this one go below 55, that is confirmation to me that the under is definitely the play here. I suppose some of you will disagree and that's ok, but I love the value on the under at 56 which eclipses the top 23 key totals numbers in the NFL. If this one is going to go over, it will required flawless offensive play along with some turnovers, short fields and special teams scoring. I don't think we see that today and I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Dolphins/Cowboys under (46) 1x (Locked) WINNER
I am going to play with fire and fade the line movement in this game. I just don't see this one going over 46 points. As I stated in my notes above, I don't think Matt Moore will fare well against a dangerous Dallas defensive line playing behind the boisterous home crowd. I do worry that Dallas will be able to pass on the Miami secondary and that is my biggest concern. However, Miami has a top 10 defense against the run in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P and WPA advanced efficiency stats and I expect them to play well against the Cowboys rushing attack. By making Dallas one dimensional, you put more pressure on Romo and that is how I expect Miami to approach this game. I don't expect that Miami will be able to stop Dallas, but I think they can slow them down and limit the big plays. On the other side, I think this is a great game for Rob Ryan and Dallas' defense to shine. I think we see a game where Dallas dominates Miami on the defensive side of the ball and limits Moore's play making ability. I don't expect Miami's rushing offense to have a good game against Dallas and I don't believe in Moore in this spot going against such a fast defense like the Cowboys. With Miles Austin missing, I think Miami can hold Dallas to 27 points or less and I don't see Miami scoring more than 17. I have this game set at 43 and expect a 24-17 type of game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

49'ers/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER
I have to leave for Thanksgiving dinner and I'm going to buy the hook in this rare instance as the line movement at Pinny appears to indicate that the total has topped out at 40.5 and 41 is the most important key number in NFL totals. Pinny is currently juicing the under at -109 and if the under money continues a drop back down to 40 cannot be that far behind. It is true that we have seen true steam on the over as the total went from 38.5 to 40 at multiple books (including Pinny) all at the same time around 7:31 pm last night. That is true steam and would indicate the over is the play. However, I'm not convinced. Both teams are remarkably similar in offensive and defensive advanced stats. Both teams are top 5 defensively against both the rush and the pass in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I have not seen such a defensive matchup all year to date that featured two top 5 ranked defenses in advanced stats and that is one of the reasons I expect great defensive play. On offense, both teams are middle of the pack in those same advanced efficiency stats. However, Baltimore's offense is night and day when it comes to away/home scores and really piles on the points at home where they average over 30. Therefore, that could be the cause of the steam and is a definite concern. In addition, SF has a much improved offense, especially with Smith playing well. Nevertheless, I love covering the key number of 41 in this spot as I have this one set at 38, thereby giving us a full FG of value here. I am going to buy the hook to cover 41 and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Redskins/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

I just don't see this one getting above the 38 I currently get, so I am locking it in now. You have two solid defenses going against two weak offenses. Both Seattle and Washington are ranked in the top 12 of the league in overall defensive EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both dominate against the run where they rank top 8 in those same categories (Seattle top 3). Offensively, however, is a different story where each team ranks bottom 5 offensively. I am not particularly impressed by either field goal kicker on these teams and I expect a defensive struggle. I have this one set at 35.5 and we're getting almost a field goal of value, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Browns/Bengals under (38) 1x (Locked)

Here's one that makes sense according to the "numbers," but could end up going over because of young athletic playmakers. I have this one set at 35.5 just like Play #4, so I am going to pull the trigger on the 2.5 points of value. However, both plays concern me. In this game, I worry that AJ Green will be in the lineup but I recognize that the Browns have a solid young cornerback in Haden to matchup against Green and I'm hoping the injury will slow the Dalton-to-Green gravy train. Plus, the strength of the Cleveland defense is stopping the pass where they rank a surprising 7th in Def Pass EPA and EPA/P, while 2nd overall against the pass in Def Pass WPA. Perhaps that high ranking is because teams are running all over them as they are ranked in the bottom 10 of advanced efficiency stats in stopping the run. Nevertheless, I will gladly give up some long methodical drives all day as long as they end in field goals. That is exactly what I expect as both teams like to extend their offensive possessions and rank 10th and 12th in time of possession. This one is a local rivalry and I expect a more smashmouth game than finesse. As long as we don't see special teams td returns or turnovers returned for td's, I think this one should be in the 20-14 range. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Teaser

Bears (+9)/Redskins (+9) 1x (-110) (Locked)

No time for real writeups but these teams are two dogs that I think are most likely to play well well and keep it within a td and maybe even win. I missed out on the early value, so I am going to take a shot and tease them across the key numbers of 3, 4, 5 and 7 while pushing on 9. I don't see either game ending with more than a 9 point margin of victory regardless of who wins, so I'm going to roll with the tease for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Patriots/Eagles over (51) 1x (Locked)

I like the line movement on this play as the overall amount of wagers actually favors the under slightly but the number has risen all morning. I expect Vince Young to do a great job managing the offense after shaking off the rust last week against a better defensive than he will face this week. I think we see McCoy have one of his biggest games of the year today. On the other side, I expect the Pats to be the Pats and hit their average for me and get between 24 and 35 points. I have this one set at 52, but I like the over in this spot for both teams. This should end up being a track meet and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Lta tailed you on your teaser, and added Clev/Bengals
under lets get em today

Glad to hear you like those plays too. Let's have a big day Pac!

[Prize Marlin]

LTA, what are your thoughts on the Panthers giving 3 to the Colts. It is clear the Colts are tanking the season by continuing to play Painter over Orlovsky who is a 7 year veteran. Orlovsky is trying to avoid being the first person to go 0-16 on two teams so why not play a QB that wants to win!!??? Painter cant get it done, does it make sense to take Panthers ML and spread??

[Trivial]

I tailed the plays 4,5,6. Thinking about the Pats one. You are likely right, but haven't pulled that trigger.,

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Packers/Lions under (56) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I know this might not be a popular pick here on SBR. I've seen a lot of the better posters riding the over and a lot of guys saying the under is a sucker bet and they are the books are trying to bait people into taking the under here. However, the only way this one flies over a posted total of 56 (and I would not take this at any less than 55) is if we get some unusual special teams' td's, fumble return td's or pick 6's. I know no one wants to root for an under on Thanksgiving, especially in a Packers game. However, I'm going to do just that. First, the Lions have solid home field advantage here. Ford Field will be packed and rocking. The Packers, as great as they are, are also a bit undisciplined when it comes to stupid penalties such as false starts and the like, although, they have improved dramatically in this category from last year to this year. Nevertheless, I just see that Detroit defense stepping up enough to limit the Packers offense just enough to keep this one under. As I mentioned in another thread, the Lions defense is top 5 overall and top 3 in the pass in Def DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. That is very solid and the Lions boast one of the top defensive lines in the league. That defensive line will be looking to hit Rodgers wherever possible and barring some BS unnecessary roughness penalties, should have a solid game against Rodgers today. On the other side, it will be difficult for GB to stop Megatron, but other than that particular weapon, I like the matchups between the GB running defense and the Detroit rushing offense and between the GB defensive backfield and the rest of the Detroit receivers. Kevin Smith is not the real deal after just joining the team and having a good game against TB. I don't see him racking up over 130 yards today like last week. A total of 56 is very high for the NFL and some would say that means the books are leaning to the over. I suppose that's possible, but with this being Thanksgiving the books knew they were going to get a lot of action on the over thereby providing too much value on the under to pass up. I have this one set at 52 and we are getting 4 points of value here. For me, that is just too much to pass up. Over the last couple days, we have seen Pinny juicing the under big time at 55.5 while square books like Bodog were heavy on the over at 56.5. This morning, I saw Pinny drop to 55 with juice on the under despite 75% of all bets at that book on the over. I suppose it's possible that Pinny is trying to "sucker" in under money, but I think the better explanation is that sharp money bough up all the 55.5 action and forced Pinny down to 55. If we see this one go below 55, that is confirmation to me that the under is definitely the play here. I suppose some of you will disagree and that's ok, but I love the value on the under at 56 which eclipses the top 23 key totals numbers in the NFL. If this one is going to go over, it will required flawless offensive play along with some turnovers, short fields and special teams scoring. I don't think we see that today and I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Dolphins/Cowboys under (46) 1x (Locked) WINNER
I am going to play with fire and fade the line movement in this game. I just don't see this one going over 46 points. As I stated in my notes above, I don't think Matt Moore will fare well against a dangerous Dallas defensive line playing behind the boisterous home crowd. I do worry that Dallas will be able to pass on the Miami secondary and that is my biggest concern. However, Miami has a top 10 defense against the run in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P and WPA advanced efficiency stats and I expect them to play well against the Cowboys rushing attack. By making Dallas one dimensional, you put more pressure on Romo and that is how I expect Miami to approach this game. I don't expect that Miami will be able to stop Dallas, but I think they can slow them down and limit the big plays. On the other side, I think this is a great game for Rob Ryan and Dallas' defense to shine. I think we see a game where Dallas dominates Miami on the defensive side of the ball and limits Moore's play making ability. I don't expect Miami's rushing offense to have a good game against Dallas and I don't believe in Moore in this spot going against such a fast defense like the Cowboys. With Miles Austin missing, I think Miami can hold Dallas to 27 points or less and I don't see Miami scoring more than 17. I have this game set at 43 and expect a 24-17 type of game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

49'ers/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER
I have to leave for Thanksgiving dinner and I'm going to buy the hook in this rare instance as the line movement at Pinny appears to indicate that the total has topped out at 40.5 and 41 is the most important key number in NFL totals. Pinny is currently juicing the under at -109 and if the under money continues a drop back down to 40 cannot be that far behind. It is true that we have seen true steam on the over as the total went from 38.5 to 40 at multiple books (including Pinny) all at the same time around 7:31 pm last night. That is true steam and would indicate the over is the play. However, I'm not convinced. Both teams are remarkably similar in offensive and defensive advanced stats. Both teams are top 5 defensively against both the rush and the pass in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I have not seen such a defensive matchup all year to date that featured two top 5 ranked defenses in advanced stats and that is one of the reasons I expect great defensive play. On offense, both teams are middle of the pack in those same advanced efficiency stats. However, Baltimore's offense is night and day when it comes to away/home scores and really piles on the points at home where they average over 30. Therefore, that could be the cause of the steam and is a definite concern. In addition, SF has a much improved offense, especially with Smith playing well. Nevertheless, I love covering the key number of 41 in this spot as I have this one set at 38, thereby giving us a full FG of value here. I am going to buy the hook to cover 41 and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Redskins/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

I just don't see this one getting above the 38 I currently get, so I am locking it in now. You have two solid defenses going against two weak offenses. Both Seattle and Washington are ranked in the top 12 of the league in overall defensive EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both dominate against the run where they rank top 8 in those same categories (Seattle top 3). Offensively, however, is a different story where each team ranks bottom 5 offensively. I am not particularly impressed by either field goal kicker on these teams and I expect a defensive struggle. I have this one set at 35.5 and we're getting almost a field goal of value, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Browns/Bengals under (38) 1x (Locked)

Here's one that makes sense according to the "numbers," but could end up going over because of young athletic playmakers. I have this one set at 35.5 just like Play #4, so I am going to pull the trigger on the 2.5 points of value. However, both plays concern me. In this game, I worry that AJ Green will be in the lineup but I recognize that the Browns have a solid young cornerback in Haden to matchup against Green and I'm hoping the injury will slow the Dalton-to-Green gravy train. Plus, the strength of the Cleveland defense is stopping the pass where they rank a surprising 7th in Def Pass EPA and EPA/P, while 2nd overall against the pass in Def Pass WPA. Perhaps that high ranking is because teams are running all over them as they are ranked in the bottom 10 of advanced efficiency stats in stopping the run. Nevertheless, I will gladly give up some long methodical drives all day as long as they end in field goals. That is exactly what I expect as both teams like to extend their offensive possessions and rank 10th and 12th in time of possession. This one is a local rivalry and I expect a more smashmouth game than finesse. As long as we don't see special teams td returns or turnovers returned for td's, I think this one should be in the 20-14 range. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Teaser

Bears (+9)/Redskins (+9) 1x (-110) (Locked)

No time for real writeups but these teams are two dogs that I think are most likely to play well well and keep it within a td and maybe even win. I missed out on the early value, so I am going to take a shot and tease them across the key numbers of 3, 4, 5 and 7 while pushing on 9. I don't see either game ending with more than a 9 point margin of victory regardless of who wins, so I'm going to roll with the tease for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Patriots/Eagles over (51) 1x (Locked)

I like the line movement on this play as the overall amount of wagers actually favors the under slightly but the number has risen all morning. I expect Vince Young to do a great job managing the offense after shaking off the rust last week against a better defensive than he will face this week. I think we see McCoy have one of his biggest games of the year today. On the other side, I expect the Pats to be the Pats and hit their average for me and get between 24 and 35 points. I have this one set at 52, but I like the over in this spot for both teams. This should end up being a track meet and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Bills/Jets over (42) 1x (Locked)

Been waiting all week to see where this would bottom out after the Fred Jackson injury and it appears 41.5 is that number because somebody just hit it big and caused some huge steam. I was able to lock it in at 42 and I will take it as the steam has some outlets as high as 43. I think we see Sanchez break out of his slump and exploit this weak Bills defense, while the Bills finally get some offense today by scoring at least 14 - 17 on the Jets after getting blown out in recent weeks. I see this one being a 28-17 type of game with each team scoring a few more or less, but this one coming in around the 44 where I have this set. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

LTA, what are your thoughts on the Panthers giving 3 to the Colts. It is clear the Colts are tanking the season by continuing to play Painter over Orlovsky who is a 7 year veteran. Orlovsky is trying to avoid being the first person to go 0-16 on two teams so why not play a QB that wants to win!!??? Painter cant get it done, does it make sense to take Panthers ML and spread??

I don't see an edge. Everything you said makes sense, but this is the NFL where nothing that happens on Sunday makes sense. Newton is still a rookie playing on the road in a dome where it gets really loud. His record on the road pales in comparison to the success he has had at home in Carolina. I think you could be right, but I'm not willing to bet on it. Good luck

[Prize Marlin]

I don't see an edge. Everything you said makes sense, but this is the NFL where nothing that happens on Sunday makes sense. Newton is still a rookie playing on the road in a dome where it gets really loud. His record on the road pales in comparison to the success he has had at home in Carolina. I think you could be right, but I'm not willing to bet on it. Good luck

Thanks good luck

[Trivial]

Play #8

Bills/Jets over (42) 1x (Locked)

Been waiting all week to see where this would bottom out after the Fred Jackson injury and it appears 41.5 is that number because somebody just hit it big and caused some huge steam. I was able to lock it in at 42 and I will take it as the steam has some outlets as high as 43. I think we see Sanchez break out of his slump and exploit this weak Bills defense, while the Bills finally get some offense today by scoring at least 14 - 17 on the Jets after getting blown out in recent weeks. I see this one being a 28-17 type of game with each team scoring a few more or less, but this one coming in around the 44 where I have this set. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Love this play. I think Bills cover (may not win) on the side. Not sure who wins this one, but I think the OVER is solid.

[billysink]

Great thread, one of the best on the site.

Good luck today.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Packers/Lions under (56) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I know this might not be a popular pick here on SBR. I've seen a lot of the better posters riding the over and a lot of guys saying the under is a sucker bet and they are the books are trying to bait people into taking the under here. However, the only way this one flies over a posted total of 56 (and I would not take this at any less than 55) is if we get some unusual special teams' td's, fumble return td's or pick 6's. I know no one wants to root for an under on Thanksgiving, especially in a Packers game. However, I'm going to do just that. First, the Lions have solid home field advantage here. Ford Field will be packed and rocking. The Packers, as great as they are, are also a bit undisciplined when it comes to stupid penalties such as false starts and the like, although, they have improved dramatically in this category from last year to this year. Nevertheless, I just see that Detroit defense stepping up enough to limit the Packers offense just enough to keep this one under. As I mentioned in another thread, the Lions defense is top 5 overall and top 3 in the pass in Def DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. That is very solid and the Lions boast one of the top defensive lines in the league. That defensive line will be looking to hit Rodgers wherever possible and barring some BS unnecessary roughness penalties, should have a solid game against Rodgers today. On the other side, it will be difficult for GB to stop Megatron, but other than that particular weapon, I like the matchups between the GB running defense and the Detroit rushing offense and between the GB defensive backfield and the rest of the Detroit receivers. Kevin Smith is not the real deal after just joining the team and having a good game against TB. I don't see him racking up over 130 yards today like last week. A total of 56 is very high for the NFL and some would say that means the books are leaning to the over. I suppose that's possible, but with this being Thanksgiving the books knew they were going to get a lot of action on the over thereby providing too much value on the under to pass up. I have this one set at 52 and we are getting 4 points of value here. For me, that is just too much to pass up. Over the last couple days, we have seen Pinny juicing the under big time at 55.5 while square books like Bodog were heavy on the over at 56.5. This morning, I saw Pinny drop to 55 with juice on the under despite 75% of all bets at that book on the over. I suppose it's possible that Pinny is trying to "sucker" in under money, but I think the better explanation is that sharp money bough up all the 55.5 action and forced Pinny down to 55. If we see this one go below 55, that is confirmation to me that the under is definitely the play here. I suppose some of you will disagree and that's ok, but I love the value on the under at 56 which eclipses the top 23 key totals numbers in the NFL. If this one is going to go over, it will required flawless offensive play along with some turnovers, short fields and special teams scoring. I don't think we see that today and I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Dolphins/Cowboys under (46) 1x (Locked) WINNER
I am going to play with fire and fade the line movement in this game. I just don't see this one going over 46 points. As I stated in my notes above, I don't think Matt Moore will fare well against a dangerous Dallas defensive line playing behind the boisterous home crowd. I do worry that Dallas will be able to pass on the Miami secondary and that is my biggest concern. However, Miami has a top 10 defense against the run in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P and WPA advanced efficiency stats and I expect them to play well against the Cowboys rushing attack. By making Dallas one dimensional, you put more pressure on Romo and that is how I expect Miami to approach this game. I don't expect that Miami will be able to stop Dallas, but I think they can slow them down and limit the big plays. On the other side, I think this is a great game for Rob Ryan and Dallas' defense to shine. I think we see a game where Dallas dominates Miami on the defensive side of the ball and limits Moore's play making ability. I don't expect Miami's rushing offense to have a good game against Dallas and I don't believe in Moore in this spot going against such a fast defense like the Cowboys. With Miles Austin missing, I think Miami can hold Dallas to 27 points or less and I don't see Miami scoring more than 17. I have this game set at 43 and expect a 24-17 type of game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

49'ers/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER
I have to leave for Thanksgiving dinner and I'm going to buy the hook in this rare instance as the line movement at Pinny appears to indicate that the total has topped out at 40.5 and 41 is the most important key number in NFL totals. Pinny is currently juicing the under at -109 and if the under money continues a drop back down to 40 cannot be that far behind. It is true that we have seen true steam on the over as the total went from 38.5 to 40 at multiple books (including Pinny) all at the same time around 7:31 pm last night. That is true steam and would indicate the over is the play. However, I'm not convinced. Both teams are remarkably similar in offensive and defensive advanced stats. Both teams are top 5 defensively against both the rush and the pass in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I have not seen such a defensive matchup all year to date that featured two top 5 ranked defenses in advanced stats and that is one of the reasons I expect great defensive play. On offense, both teams are middle of the pack in those same advanced efficiency stats. However, Baltimore's offense is night and day when it comes to away/home scores and really piles on the points at home where they average over 30. Therefore, that could be the cause of the steam and is a definite concern. In addition, SF has a much improved offense, especially with Smith playing well. Nevertheless, I love covering the key number of 41 in this spot as I have this one set at 38, thereby giving us a full FG of value here. I am going to buy the hook to cover 41 and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Redskins/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

I just don't see this one getting above the 38 I currently get, so I am locking it in now. You have two solid defenses going against two weak offenses. Both Seattle and Washington are ranked in the top 12 of the league in overall defensive EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both dominate against the run where they rank top 8 in those same categories (Seattle top 3). Offensively, however, is a different story where each team ranks bottom 5 offensively. I am not particularly impressed by either field goal kicker on these teams and I expect a defensive struggle. I have this one set at 35.5 and we're getting almost a field goal of value, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Browns/Bengals under (38) 1x (Locked)

Here's one that makes sense according to the "numbers," but could end up going over because of young athletic playmakers. I have this one set at 35.5 just like Play #4, so I am going to pull the trigger on the 2.5 points of value. However, both plays concern me. In this game, I worry that AJ Green will be in the lineup but I recognize that the Browns have a solid young cornerback in Haden to matchup against Green and I'm hoping the injury will slow the Dalton-to-Green gravy train. Plus, the strength of the Cleveland defense is stopping the pass where they rank a surprising 7th in Def Pass EPA and EPA/P, while 2nd overall against the pass in Def Pass WPA. Perhaps that high ranking is because teams are running all over them as they are ranked in the bottom 10 of advanced efficiency stats in stopping the run. Nevertheless, I will gladly give up some long methodical drives all day as long as they end in field goals. That is exactly what I expect as both teams like to extend their offensive possessions and rank 10th and 12th in time of possession. This one is a local rivalry and I expect a more smashmouth game than finesse. As long as we don't see special teams td returns or turnovers returned for td's, I think this one should be in the 20-14 range. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Teaser

Bears (+9)/Redskins (+9) 1x (-110) (Locked)

No time for real writeups but these teams are two dogs that I think are most likely to play well well and keep it within a td and maybe even win. I missed out on the early value, so I am going to take a shot and tease them across the key numbers of 3, 4, 5 and 7 while pushing on 9. I don't see either game ending with more than a 9 point margin of victory regardless of who wins, so I'm going to roll with the tease for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Patriots/Eagles over (51) 1x (Locked)

I like the line movement on this play as the overall amount of wagers actually favors the under slightly but the number has risen all morning. I expect Vince Young to do a great job managing the offense after shaking off the rust last week against a better defensive than he will face this week. I think we see McCoy have one of his biggest games of the year today. On the other side, I expect the Pats to be the Pats and hit their average for me and get between 24 and 35 points. I have this one set at 52, but I like the over in this spot for both teams. This should end up being a track meet and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Bills/Jets over (42) 1x (Locked)

Been waiting all week to see where this would bottom out after the Fred Jackson injury and it appears 41.5 is that number because somebody just hit it big and caused some huge steam. I was able to lock it in at 42 and I will take it as the steam has some outlets as high as 43. I think we see Sanchez break out of his slump and exploit this weak Bills defense, while the Bills finally get some offense today by scoring at least 14 - 17 on the Jets after getting blown out in recent weeks. I see this one being a 28-17 type of game with each team scoring a few more or less, but this one coming in around the 44 where I have this set. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Vikings/Falcons under (44) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup as I'm watching the lines, but I expect some steam on the under in this game as the Vikings should not be able to score on Atlanta with no Peterson and Ponder behind center in Atlanta. Atlanta will run the ball, play ball control offense and grind out a convincing win. However, don't be surprised if Jared Allen and the Minny front four has a good game today in pressuring Ryan and keeping Atlanta's passing offense grounded. I think we see a conservative game plan for both teams and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Great thread, one of the best on the site.

Good luck today.

Same to you. I look forward to your injury update threads every week

[Love The Action]

I really want to play the Jaguars/Texans under, but with all the Jaguars injuries -- 5 defensive starters out of the lineup and Kampman unlikely to play a ton -- I just can't do it. That was one of my strongest plays earlier in the week before all the injuries, especially to Cox at CB, were announced. Watch, it will cash now that I'm laying off

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Packers/Lions under (56) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I know this might not be a popular pick here on SBR. I've seen a lot of the better posters riding the over and a lot of guys saying the under is a sucker bet and they are the books are trying to bait people into taking the under here. However, the only way this one flies over a posted total of 56 (and I would not take this at any less than 55) is if we get some unusual special teams' td's, fumble return td's or pick 6's. I know no one wants to root for an under on Thanksgiving, especially in a Packers game. However, I'm going to do just that. First, the Lions have solid home field advantage here. Ford Field will be packed and rocking. The Packers, as great as they are, are also a bit undisciplined when it comes to stupid penalties such as false starts and the like, although, they have improved dramatically in this category from last year to this year. Nevertheless, I just see that Detroit defense stepping up enough to limit the Packers offense just enough to keep this one under. As I mentioned in another thread, the Lions defense is top 5 overall and top 3 in the pass in Def DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. That is very solid and the Lions boast one of the top defensive lines in the league. That defensive line will be looking to hit Rodgers wherever possible and barring some BS unnecessary roughness penalties, should have a solid game against Rodgers today. On the other side, it will be difficult for GB to stop Megatron, but other than that particular weapon, I like the matchups between the GB running defense and the Detroit rushing offense and between the GB defensive backfield and the rest of the Detroit receivers. Kevin Smith is not the real deal after just joining the team and having a good game against TB. I don't see him racking up over 130 yards today like last week. A total of 56 is very high for the NFL and some would say that means the books are leaning to the over. I suppose that's possible, but with this being Thanksgiving the books knew they were going to get a lot of action on the over thereby providing too much value on the under to pass up. I have this one set at 52 and we are getting 4 points of value here. For me, that is just too much to pass up. Over the last couple days, we have seen Pinny juicing the under big time at 55.5 while square books like Bodog were heavy on the over at 56.5. This morning, I saw Pinny drop to 55 with juice on the under despite 75% of all bets at that book on the over. I suppose it's possible that Pinny is trying to "sucker" in under money, but I think the better explanation is that sharp money bough up all the 55.5 action and forced Pinny down to 55. If we see this one go below 55, that is confirmation to me that the under is definitely the play here. I suppose some of you will disagree and that's ok, but I love the value on the under at 56 which eclipses the top 23 key totals numbers in the NFL. If this one is going to go over, it will required flawless offensive play along with some turnovers, short fields and special teams scoring. I don't think we see that today and I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Dolphins/Cowboys under (46) 1x (Locked) WINNER
I am going to play with fire and fade the line movement in this game. I just don't see this one going over 46 points. As I stated in my notes above, I don't think Matt Moore will fare well against a dangerous Dallas defensive line playing behind the boisterous home crowd. I do worry that Dallas will be able to pass on the Miami secondary and that is my biggest concern. However, Miami has a top 10 defense against the run in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P and WPA advanced efficiency stats and I expect them to play well against the Cowboys rushing attack. By making Dallas one dimensional, you put more pressure on Romo and that is how I expect Miami to approach this game. I don't expect that Miami will be able to stop Dallas, but I think they can slow them down and limit the big plays. On the other side, I think this is a great game for Rob Ryan and Dallas' defense to shine. I think we see a game where Dallas dominates Miami on the defensive side of the ball and limits Moore's play making ability. I don't expect Miami's rushing offense to have a good game against Dallas and I don't believe in Moore in this spot going against such a fast defense like the Cowboys. With Miles Austin missing, I think Miami can hold Dallas to 27 points or less and I don't see Miami scoring more than 17. I have this game set at 43 and expect a 24-17 type of game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

49'ers/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER
I have to leave for Thanksgiving dinner and I'm going to buy the hook in this rare instance as the line movement at Pinny appears to indicate that the total has topped out at 40.5 and 41 is the most important key number in NFL totals. Pinny is currently juicing the under at -109 and if the under money continues a drop back down to 40 cannot be that far behind. It is true that we have seen true steam on the over as the total went from 38.5 to 40 at multiple books (including Pinny) all at the same time around 7:31 pm last night. That is true steam and would indicate the over is the play. However, I'm not convinced. Both teams are remarkably similar in offensive and defensive advanced stats. Both teams are top 5 defensively against both the rush and the pass in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I have not seen such a defensive matchup all year to date that featured two top 5 ranked defenses in advanced stats and that is one of the reasons I expect great defensive play. On offense, both teams are middle of the pack in those same advanced efficiency stats. However, Baltimore's offense is night and day when it comes to away/home scores and really piles on the points at home where they average over 30. Therefore, that could be the cause of the steam and is a definite concern. In addition, SF has a much improved offense, especially with Smith playing well. Nevertheless, I love covering the key number of 41 in this spot as I have this one set at 38, thereby giving us a full FG of value here. I am going to buy the hook to cover 41 and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Redskins/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

I just don't see this one getting above the 38 I currently get, so I am locking it in now. You have two solid defenses going against two weak offenses. Both Seattle and Washington are ranked in the top 12 of the league in overall defensive EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both dominate against the run where they rank top 8 in those same categories (Seattle top 3). Offensively, however, is a different story where each team ranks bottom 5 offensively. I am not particularly impressed by either field goal kicker on these teams and I expect a defensive struggle. I have this one set at 35.5 and we're getting almost a field goal of value, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Browns/Bengals under (38) 1x (Locked)

Here's one that makes sense according to the "numbers," but could end up going over because of young athletic playmakers. I have this one set at 35.5 just like Play #4, so I am going to pull the trigger on the 2.5 points of value. However, both plays concern me. In this game, I worry that AJ Green will be in the lineup but I recognize that the Browns have a solid young cornerback in Haden to matchup against Green and I'm hoping the injury will slow the Dalton-to-Green gravy train. Plus, the strength of the Cleveland defense is stopping the pass where they rank a surprising 7th in Def Pass EPA and EPA/P, while 2nd overall against the pass in Def Pass WPA. Perhaps that high ranking is because teams are running all over them as they are ranked in the bottom 10 of advanced efficiency stats in stopping the run. Nevertheless, I will gladly give up some long methodical drives all day as long as they end in field goals. That is exactly what I expect as both teams like to extend their offensive possessions and rank 10th and 12th in time of possession. This one is a local rivalry and I expect a more smashmouth game than finesse. As long as we don't see special teams td returns or turnovers returned for td's, I think this one should be in the 20-14 range. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Teaser

Bears (+9)/Redskins (+9) 1x (-110) (Locked)

No time for real writeups but these teams are two dogs that I think are most likely to play well well and keep it within a td and maybe even win. I missed out on the early value, so I am going to take a shot and tease them across the key numbers of 3, 4, 5 and 7 while pushing on 9. I don't see either game ending with more than a 9 point margin of victory regardless of who wins, so I'm going to roll with the tease for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Patriots/Eagles over (51) 1x (Locked)

I like the line movement on this play as the overall amount of wagers actually favors the under slightly but the number has risen all morning. I expect Vince Young to do a great job managing the offense after shaking off the rust last week against a better defensive than he will face this week. I think we see McCoy have one of his biggest games of the year today. On the other side, I expect the Pats to be the Pats and hit their average for me and get between 24 and 35 points. I have this one set at 52, but I like the over in this spot for both teams. This should end up being a track meet and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Bills/Jets over (42) 1x (Locked)

Been waiting all week to see where this would bottom out after the Fred Jackson injury and it appears 41.5 is that number because somebody just hit it big and caused some huge steam. I was able to lock it in at 42 and I will take it as the steam has some outlets as high as 43. I think we see Sanchez break out of his slump and exploit this weak Bills defense, while the Bills finally get some offense today by scoring at least 14 - 17 on the Jets after getting blown out in recent weeks. I see this one being a 28-17 type of game with each team scoring a few more or less, but this one coming in around the 44 where I have this set. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Vikings/Falcons under (44) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup as I'm watching the lines, but I expect some steam on the under in this game as the Vikings should not be able to score on Atlanta with no Peterson and Ponder behind center in Atlanta. Atlanta will run the ball, play ball control offense and grind out a convincing win. However, don't be surprised if Jared Allen and the Minny front four has a good game today in pressuring Ryan and keeping Atlanta's passing offense grounded. I think we see a conservative game plan for both teams and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Chargers (-5) 1x (Locked)

I was looking for -5 and I got it. I just don't trust Tebow. He seems like a really "good guy" and all that, but he can't throw the ball at a level necessary to succeed consistently in the NFL. Tebow has now covered 3 games ATS and I don't think that streak can continue. I have this game set at SD -6.5, so I will take the value, fade Tebow and roll with the Chargers for 1x. Good luck.

[billysink]

I really want to play the Jaguars/Texans under, but with all the Jaguars injuries -- 5 defensive starters out of the lineup and Kampman unlikely to play a ton -- I just can't do it. That was one of my strongest plays earlier in the week before all the injuries, especially to Cox at CB, were announced. Watch, it will cash now that I'm laying off

Kampman out too along with Roth and Knighton.

I can't play Jags now with the inactive report finalized.

I believe in the play in theory, just better on the board so I will leave this one up.

[chitown17]

Love the plays every week LTA, what do you think about a 6.5 pt teaser of Hou and Cin? Brings both of them down to -.5 (for me at least)

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Packers/Lions under (56) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I know this might not be a popular pick here on SBR. I've seen a lot of the better posters riding the over and a lot of guys saying the under is a sucker bet and they are the books are trying to bait people into taking the under here. However, the only way this one flies over a posted total of 56 (and I would not take this at any less than 55) is if we get some unusual special teams' td's, fumble return td's or pick 6's. I know no one wants to root for an under on Thanksgiving, especially in a Packers game. However, I'm going to do just that. First, the Lions have solid home field advantage here. Ford Field will be packed and rocking. The Packers, as great as they are, are also a bit undisciplined when it comes to stupid penalties such as false starts and the like, although, they have improved dramatically in this category from last year to this year. Nevertheless, I just see that Detroit defense stepping up enough to limit the Packers offense just enough to keep this one under. As I mentioned in another thread, the Lions defense is top 5 overall and top 3 in the pass in Def DVOA, EVA, EVA/P, WPA and SR%. That is very solid and the Lions boast one of the top defensive lines in the league. That defensive line will be looking to hit Rodgers wherever possible and barring some BS unnecessary roughness penalties, should have a solid game against Rodgers today. On the other side, it will be difficult for GB to stop Megatron, but other than that particular weapon, I like the matchups between the GB running defense and the Detroit rushing offense and between the GB defensive backfield and the rest of the Detroit receivers. Kevin Smith is not the real deal after just joining the team and having a good game against TB. I don't see him racking up over 130 yards today like last week. A total of 56 is very high for the NFL and some would say that means the books are leaning to the over. I suppose that's possible, but with this being Thanksgiving the books knew they were going to get a lot of action on the over thereby providing too much value on the under to pass up. I have this one set at 52 and we are getting 4 points of value here. For me, that is just too much to pass up. Over the last couple days, we have seen Pinny juicing the under big time at 55.5 while square books like Bodog were heavy on the over at 56.5. This morning, I saw Pinny drop to 55 with juice on the under despite 75% of all bets at that book on the over. I suppose it's possible that Pinny is trying to "sucker" in under money, but I think the better explanation is that sharp money bough up all the 55.5 action and forced Pinny down to 55. If we see this one go below 55, that is confirmation to me that the under is definitely the play here. I suppose some of you will disagree and that's ok, but I love the value on the under at 56 which eclipses the top 23 key totals numbers in the NFL. If this one is going to go over, it will required flawless offensive play along with some turnovers, short fields and special teams scoring. I don't think we see that today and I am going to roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Dolphins/Cowboys under (46) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I am going to play with fire and fade the line movement in this game. I just don't see this one going over 46 points. As I stated in my notes above, I don't think Matt Moore will fare well against a dangerous Dallas defensive line playing behind the boisterous home crowd. I do worry that Dallas will be able to pass on the Miami secondary and that is my biggest concern. However, Miami has a top 10 defense against the run in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P and WPA advanced efficiency stats and I expect them to play well against the Cowboys rushing attack. By making Dallas one dimensional, you put more pressure on Romo and that is how I expect Miami to approach this game. I don't expect that Miami will be able to stop Dallas, but I think they can slow them down and limit the big plays. On the other side, I think this is a great game for Rob Ryan and Dallas' defense to shine. I think we see a game where Dallas dominates Miami on the defensive side of the ball and limits Moore's play making ability. I don't expect Miami's rushing offense to have a good game against Dallas and I don't believe in Moore in this spot going against such a fast defense like the Cowboys. With Miles Austin missing, I think Miami can hold Dallas to 27 points or less and I don't see Miami scoring more than 17. I have this game set at 43 and expect a 24-17 type of game. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

49'ers/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I have to leave for Thanksgiving dinner and I'm going to buy the hook in this rare instance as the line movement at Pinny appears to indicate that the total has topped out at 40.5 and 41 is the most important key number in NFL totals. Pinny is currently juicing the under at -109 and if the under money continues a drop back down to 40 cannot be that far behind. It is true that we have seen true steam on the over as the total went from 38.5 to 40 at multiple books (including Pinny) all at the same time around 7:31 pm last night. That is true steam and would indicate the over is the play. However, I'm not convinced. Both teams are remarkably similar in offensive and defensive advanced stats. Both teams are top 5 defensively against both the rush and the pass in DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. I have not seen such a defensive matchup all year to date that featured two top 5 ranked defenses in advanced stats and that is one of the reasons I expect great defensive play. On offense, both teams are middle of the pack in those same advanced efficiency stats. However, Baltimore's offense is night and day when it comes to away/home scores and really piles on the points at home where they average over 30. Therefore, that could be the cause of the steam and is a definite concern. In addition, SF has a much improved offense, especially with Smith playing well. Nevertheless, I love covering the key number of 41 in this spot as I have this one set at 38, thereby giving us a full FG of value here. I am going to buy the hook to cover 41 and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Redskins/Seahawks under (38) 1x (Locked)

I just don't see this one getting above the 38 I currently get, so I am locking it in now. You have two solid defenses going against two weak offenses. Both Seattle and Washington are ranked in the top 12 of the league in overall defensive EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR% and both dominate against the run where they rank top 8 in those same categories (Seattle top 3). Offensively, however, is a different story where each team ranks bottom 5 offensively. I am not particularly impressed by either field goal kicker on these teams and I expect a defensive struggle. I have this one set at 35.5 and we're getting almost a field goal of value, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Browns/Bengals under (38) 1x (Locked)

Here's one that makes sense according to the "numbers," but could end up going over because of young athletic playmakers. I have this one set at 35.5 just like Play #4, so I am going to pull the trigger on the 2.5 points of value. However, both plays concern me. In this game, I worry that AJ Green will be in the lineup but I recognize that the Browns have a solid young cornerback in Haden to matchup against Green and I'm hoping the injury will slow the Dalton-to-Green gravy train. Plus, the strength of the Cleveland defense is stopping the pass where they rank a surprising 7th in Def Pass EPA and EPA/P, while 2nd overall against the pass in Def Pass WPA. Perhaps that high ranking is because teams are running all over them as they are ranked in the bottom 10 of advanced efficiency stats in stopping the run. Nevertheless, I will gladly give up some long methodical drives all day as long as they end in field goals. That is exactly what I expect as both teams like to extend their offensive possessions and rank 10th and 12th in time of possession. This one is a local rivalry and I expect a more smashmouth game than finesse. As long as we don't see special teams td returns or turnovers returned for td's, I think this one should be in the 20-14 range. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Teaser

Bears (+9)/Redskins (+9) 1x (-110) (Locked)

No time for real writeups but these teams are two dogs that I think are most likely to play well well and keep it within a td and maybe even win. I missed out on the early value, so I am going to take a shot and tease them across the key numbers of 3, 4, 5 and 7 while pushing on 9. I don't see either game ending with more than a 9 point margin of victory regardless of who wins, so I'm going to roll with the tease for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Patriots/Eagles over (51) 1x (Locked)

I like the line movement on this play as the overall amount of wagers actually favors the under slightly but the number has risen all morning. I expect Vince Young to do a great job managing the offense after shaking off the rust last week against a better defensive than he will face this week. I think we see McCoy have one of his biggest games of the year today. On the other side, I expect the Pats to be the Pats and hit their average for me and get between 24 and 35 points. I have this one set at 52, but I like the over in this spot for both teams. This should end up being a track meet and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Bills/Jets over (42) 1x (Locked)

Been waiting all week to see where this would bottom out after the Fred Jackson injury and it appears 41.5 is that number because somebody just hit it big and caused some huge steam. I was able to lock it in at 42 and I will take it as the steam has some outlets as high as 43. I think we see Sanchez break out of his slump and exploit this weak Bills defense, while the Bills finally get some offense today by scoring at least 14 - 17 on the Jets after getting blown out in recent weeks. I see this one being a 28-17 type of game with each team scoring a few more or less, but this one coming in around the 44 where I have this set. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Vikings/Falcons under (44) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup as I'm watching the lines, but I expect some steam on the under in this game as the Vikings should not be able to score on Atlanta with no Peterson and Ponder behind center in Atlanta. Atlanta will run the ball, play ball control offense and grind out a convincing win. However, don't be surprised if Jared Allen and the Minny front four has a good game today in pressuring Ryan and keeping Atlanta's passing offense grounded. I think we see a conservative game plan for both teams and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Chargers (-5) 1x (Locked)

I was looking for -5 and I got it. I just don't trust Tebow. He seems like a really "good guy" and all that, but he can't throw the ball at a level necessary to succeed consistently in the NFL. Tebow has now covered 3 games ATS and I don't think that streak can continue. I have this game set at SD -6.5, so I will take the value, fade Tebow and roll with the Chargers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Rams (-2) 1x (Locked)

Kolb has been ruled out again and I will fade Skelton in this horrible situational spot for the Cardinals who are playing their 3rd road game in a row and 4th in 5 games. That is historically one of the worst situational spots in the NFL and when you add that to the revenge spot for the Rams here at home, I think the Rams are actually a great play. They have lost a couple games since beating the Saints and are getting great value in this home game. I have them set at -3.5 and we're getting them at -2 which gives us a push on the key number of 2 and win at 3 or more. I think the Rams should have a lot of success today on defense against Skelton as Long should make this long day for the Cardinals QB. On defense, Arizona will have hard time stopping Jackson on the ground. Larry Fitzgerald can be neutralized if the guy throwing to him is hurried and I expect the Rams to employ plenty of blitz pressure. I am rolling with the Rams for 1x. Good luck.