LTA's NFL PLays

[NowMillionaire]

Come on, just a field goal please !

[NowMillionaire]

I think Miami's game will be a cash back

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 11

Play #1

Panthers/Lions under (48.5) 1x and under (48) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)

I see both offenses regressing a bit and Carolina starting to stiffen up just a bit on defense. I like this game as solid public fade because Detroit should dominate at home on defense. This Lioins defense is currrently ranked top 5 in the NFL in Def EPA, Def EPA/P, Def WPA, Def SR% and are equally tough against both the run and pass. Plus their DVOA efficiency rating is top 3 NFL. Their recent struggles against the Bears were from two pick 6's and a special teams touchdowns. Plus, Stafford put them in tough positions all game. I don't expect those same struggles because this game will be in the dome at home. Therefore, even though Stafford has a broken bone in his throwing hand, I expect him to be more careful with the football and avoid the turnovers. At the same time, I don't think the Lions will light it up because of their lack of a running game and the possible accuracy issues caused by Stafford's injured throwing hand. The Panthers defense has been improving over their last few games and I expect a solid performance today against the one dimensional Lions. That defensive line of the Lions will frustrate Newton and beat him up all day. I have this one set at 44.5 and we're covering the key numbers of 47 and 48, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Buffalo/Miami over (43) 2x (Locked)

Miami has played to 8 straight unders, so they have to play to another one here...right? Wrong! I love the over in this spot. Its time that this dangerous Buffalo offense breaks out a bit and the Buffalo defense is horrible. Buffalo remains top 10 in Off EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. They remain dangerous from the pass and run despit Fitzpatrick's recent struggles. Miami is ranked in the bottom third of the league in most advanced defenseive categories and I full expect the to give up at least 3 td's to Buffalo today. On the others side, Miami's offense has been on point of late after they made the switch to Moore. They are protecting the ball better and are more balanced between the run and the pass. With Buffalo's defensive injuries and struggles, I expect Miami to find a lot of offensive success today on the ground and through the air. The action is fairly even in this game but I think we will see some steam on the over forcing a closing number of 44 or more. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #3

Tennessee/Atlanta under (44.5) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups as this is the most important time for line movement. We have two teams that will try to establish the run against two defenses that are ready for that strategy. The Titans will not continue to score on special teams as they have been. I do not expect a shootout today as defense should rule with both defense ranked in the top 13 of Def EPA, EPA/P, SR% and WPA. I have this one set at 42 and I am rolling with value on the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Bengals/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Pinny started juicing the under 40.5 at -110, so I don't see this one getting back to 41 and I will buy the hook in this rare instance. I generally don't buy points on totals, but I really like the under today and want to have coverage on the most important key total number in the NFL. My biggest fear is that Leon Hall is out for Cincy as the Ray Lewis injury does not scare me as much. However, I think the Bengals will struggle without that Dalton to Green connection and this one stays under the posted total. Both defenses are to 10 in Def DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, SR% and WPA. I have this one set just over the key number of 37 at 37.5, so I really wanted to be able to cover the 41. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Cowboys/Redskins under (42) 1x (Locked)

Been waiting for this number to return. We have two really solid defenses going against one inept offense and one that is a bit overrated after last week's annihilation of the Bills. I have this one set at 40 and I will take a shot here 42 covering the key numbers of 40, 41 and 42. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Seahawks/Rams under (41) 1x (Locked)

I can't believe I was able to get this number, but was able to snatch it went Pinny started steaming over. My local went to 41 briefly before setting back at 40 and I jumped on it. I could be wrong, but I don't think we see that number materialize today. I am very worried about why this number has steadily climbed, but I think we see a big buyback before the game starts. I don't think this is true over money as I think someone is looking for a middle or just looking to get set up for a better number on the under. Once I was able to get 41, I had to jump on it. I have this game set at 36, so I see huge value at any number at 40 or less. Other than the line movement, everything else supports the under. Seattle has a really solid defense with a the Rams improving in that area with Long dominating on the defensive front. Neither team is thriving offensively and the Rams strength on offense is running the ball with Jackson and that plays right into the strength of Seattle's defense which is rated top 5 in the league in advanced stats against the run. The only way this one goes over is if we see fumble/interception return td's or special teams td's. Otherwise, I don't see either team throwing the ball all over the field and piling up the yards and points. As I said, I have this one set at 36, so either I am way off and the line movement is legitimate or I am right and the books are getting set up for a buy back on the under. Only time will tell, but I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Buccaneers/Packers over (48) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to get 47.5, but Pinny started to move the juice on the under to the over at 48.5 so I am jumping on the 48 now. I don't care about the cold weather. I think TB comes out to play and plays hard. I think that effort will be displayed on the offensive side of the ball and they are an "active" dog today. I think we see TB score 21 points or more. Assuming GB gets their usual 28+, this one should sail over the posted total. I have this one set at 50 even, so I will take the two points of value and roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Chargers/Bears under (46) 1.5x (Locked)

No time for a real writeup, but the only way this one goes over is if the Bears get some pick 6 td's or special teams td's etc. I think everyone expecting the over here will be sorely disappointed unless we get some wild plays. The Bears defense has risen in the advanced rankings and although the SD defense has dropped, I still give them some respect with Spikes able to play today. The majority of all bets remain on the over, yet the sharper books are sticking with the number at 45 after dropping from 47 or 46.5 earlier in the week. I agree with the early action on this game that dropped the total and I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

If we don't cash this Bills over, I am going to puke. They were on Miami's 1 yard line and could not score!!!

I cannot believe this play did not fuking cash. 34 fuking points at halftime and all they could must was 9 points in the 2h!!!! The Bills fuking blow, so pathetic that they couldn't even score with four tries from the Miami one yard line. So pissed right now. We need that game so bad in order to have a split going into the late games. Instead we get fuked on that game and the Cowboys let the Redskins score with 1 second left to fuk us in that game.

I'm done boys. So fuking pissed right now. Need to go take the dog for a walk, have a beer and get the fuk away from football. Every fuking break went against us today. Un fuking real. So pissed.

[SlickRick1382]

I cannot believe this play did not fuking cash. 34 fuking points at halftime and all they could must was 9 points in the 2h!!!! The Bills fuking blow, pathetic. So pissed right now. We need that game so bad in order to have a split going into the late games. Instead we get fuked on that game and the Cowboys let the Redskins score with 1 second left to fuk us in that game. I'm done boys. So fuking pissed right now. Need to go take the dog for a walk, have a beer and get the fuk away from football. Every fuking break went against us today. Un fuking real. So pissed.

You're not the only one bro. Vikings lost Peterson and yet managed to hang around but Ponder throws 3 INT's included two in the red zone to screw me out of that and Dallas screwed me as I thought they'd cover their 7. Had the worst week of my life. Going to smoke a cigar and relax before I break something.

[YouHave2outs]

a disgusting push. i like the under here on bears/chargers as well as seahawks/rams a lot too; tailing these with seahawks/rams pretty big for me. gl everyone

[fecgp40]

You're not the only one bro. Vikings lost Peterson and yet managed to hang around but Ponder throws 3 INT's included two in the red zone to screw me out of that and Dallas screwed me as I thought they'd cover their 7. Had the worst week of my life. Going to smoke a cigar and relax before I break something.

Getting buried today too boys. Fukkkking cowboys. Thanks for nothing chokers.

[hot cuisine]

what about the total on tonights game lta? I needed bills real bad to cant believe it didnt cash

[YouHave2outs]

i like the cigar comment

[Donnie Brasco]

Sunday, bloody sunday. All in on chicago tonight. I am tired, so tired!

[SlickRick1382]

3 - 3 most of the game and 2 quick TD's with a 2 min drive starting past mid field, lol. **** me ....

[Overbettor]

We need a turnover here.

[SlickRick1382]

Wow, how about that missed FG. Maybe we can catch one break after all although not looking good. Here's for a low scoring, running 2H

[SlickRick1382]

Anyone betting the 2H?

[upscope]

Well, I've been threatening to quit the NFL for a while now & this time I think they've left me no option. The NFL is a fuggin' joke. It always has been. The sh#t that happens in the NFL just can't be logically explained. There's only so many times that you can have 1st & goal from the one & not get it. That exact scenario has happened no less than 5 times stealing victories from me & turning them to losses. Yet whenever a team needs to go 89 yds to beat me they do w/ the ease of hitting an xtra point.
How can you not get over 43 when you score 34 in the first half?? After that & the Dallas crap I officially give on the NFL (I also had Dal -7 in that game). I can handle a beat here in there but they don't even come close to evening out in the NFL for some reason Not even close. The NFL wins, it's simply too unpredictable & too tough to bet. And it's too stressful to work hard all week & give it all back + some every sun. Six out of the last 7 weeks I have been ahead going into Sun & have come out owing in 5 of them.
I give....NFL wins!!
GL to everybody else though.

[SlickRick1382]

Well, I've been threatening to quit the NFL for a while now & this time I think they've left me no option. The NFL is a fuggin' joke. It always has been. The sh#t that happens in the NFL just can't be logically explained. There's only so many times that you can have 1st & goal from the one & not get it. That exact scenario has happened no less than 5 times stealing victories from me & turning them to losses. Yet whenever a team needs to go 89 yds to beat me they do w/ the ease of hitting an xtra point. How can you not get over 43 when you score 34 in the first half?? After that & the Dallas crap I officially give on the NFL (I also had Dal -7 in that game). I can handle a beat here in there but they don't even come close to evening out in the NFL for some reason Not even close. The NFL wins, it's simply too unpredictable & too tough to bet. And it's too stressful to work hard all week & give it all back + some every sun. Six out of the last 7 weeks I have been ahead going into Sun & have come out owing in 5 of them. I give....NFL wins!! GL to everybody else though.

I'm starting to agree. The lines are too sharp and everything goes against us somehow in the NFL, especially this season. Think I'm sticking to college basketball and football for now and maybe some hockey.

NFL isn't paying dividends for me anymore and I'm losing my ass on Sunday's.

[Overbettor]

Im beginning to second guess myself about the philly/giants game. Im leaning g-men and under but would really appreciate some insights here fellas? Anybody?

[YouHave2outs]

or we can just stick to LTAs plays and have fun and prosper a few units. even if you just play with him selectively you can't lose much unless you run awful.

[ManBearPig]

I'm starting to agree. The lines are too sharp and everything goes against us somehow in the NFL, especially this season. Think I'm sticking to college basketball and football for now and maybe some hockey. NFL isn't paying dividends for me anymore and I'm losing my ass on Sunday's.

You definitely have to pick your spots in the NFL that's for sure.

[Trivial]

I am with LTA and upscope. I just went for a long walk with my daughter which gave me some sanity back after those early games. I said last week I am done with NFL for the regular season. Now I am out. I can accept a loss like in Detroit. I respect it. We got legitamately a loss. The others , I also wanna hammer my head into a wall.

[Love The Action]

Man...would have been a plus unit profitable day had that Buffalo over cashed....instead we end up losing around 3x. That sucks.

[GChild]

What u like tonight

[riffraff24]

What u like tonight

[SUPREME]

[GChild]

[Redscot]

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 11

Play #1

Panthers/Lions under (48.5) 1x and under (48) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)

I see both offenses regressing a bit and Carolina starting to stiffen up just a bit on defense. I like this game as solid public fade because Detroit should dominate at home on defense. This Lioins defense is currrently ranked top 5 in the NFL in Def EPA, Def EPA/P, Def WPA, Def SR% and are equally tough against both the run and pass. Plus their DVOA efficiency rating is top 3 NFL. Their recent struggles against the Bears were from two pick 6's and a special teams touchdowns. Plus, Stafford put them in tough positions all game. I don't expect those same struggles because this game will be in the dome at home. Therefore, even though Stafford has a broken bone in his throwing hand, I expect him to be more careful with the football and avoid the turnovers. At the same time, I don't think the Lions will light it up because of their lack of a running game and the possible accuracy issues caused by Stafford's injured throwing hand. The Panthers defense has been improving over their last few games and I expect a solid performance today against the one dimensional Lions. That defensive line of the Lions will frustrate Newton and beat him up all day. I have this one set at 44.5 and we're covering the key numbers of 47 and 48, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Buffalo/Miami over (43) 2x (Locked)

Miami has played to 8 straight unders, so they have to play to another one here...right? Wrong! I love the over in this spot. Its time that this dangerous Buffalo offense breaks out a bit and the Buffalo defense is horrible. Buffalo remains top 10 in Off EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. They remain dangerous from the pass and run despit Fitzpatrick's recent struggles. Miami is ranked in the bottom third of the league in most advanced defenseive categories and I full expect the to give up at least 3 td's to Buffalo today. On the others side, Miami's offense has been on point of late after they made the switch to Moore. They are protecting the ball better and are more balanced between the run and the pass. With Buffalo's defensive injuries and struggles, I expect Miami to find a lot of offensive success today on the ground and through the air. The action is fairly even in this game but I think we will see some steam on the over forcing a closing number of 44 or more. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #3

Tennessee/Atlanta under (44.5) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups as this is the most important time for line movement. We have two teams that will try to establish the run against two defenses that are ready for that strategy. The Titans will not continue to score on special teams as they have been. I do not expect a shootout today as defense should rule with both defense ranked in the top 13 of Def EPA, EPA/P, SR% and WPA. I have this one set at 42 and I am rolling with value on the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Bengals/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Pinny started juicing the under 40.5 at -110, so I don't see this one getting back to 41 and I will buy the hook in this rare instance. I generally don't buy points on totals, but I really like the under today and want to have coverage on the most important key total number in the NFL. My biggest fear is that Leon Hall is out for Cincy as the Ray Lewis injury does not scare me as much. However, I think the Bengals will struggle without that Dalton to Green connection and this one stays under the posted total. Both defenses are to 10 in Def DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, SR% and WPA. I have this one set just over the key number of 37 at 37.5, so I really wanted to be able to cover the 41. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Cowboys/Redskins under (42) 1x (Locked)

Been waiting for this number to return. We have two really solid defenses going against one inept offense and one that is a bit overrated after last week's annihilation of the Bills. I have this one set at 40 and I will take a shot here 42 covering the key numbers of 40, 41 and 42. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Seahawks/Rams under (41) 1x (Locked)

I can't believe I was able to get this number, but was able to snatch it went Pinny started steaming over. My local went to 41 briefly before setting back at 40 and I jumped on it. I could be wrong, but I don't think we see that number materialize today. I am very worried about why this number has steadily climbed, but I think we see a big buyback before the game starts. I don't think this is true over money as I think someone is looking for a middle or just looking to get set up for a better number on the under. Once I was able to get 41, I had to jump on it. I have this game set at 36, so I see huge value at any number at 40 or less. Other than the line movement, everything else supports the under. Seattle has a really solid defense with a the Rams improving in that area with Long dominating on the defensive front. Neither team is thriving offensively and the Rams strength on offense is running the ball with Jackson and that plays right into the strength of Seattle's defense which is rated top 5 in the league in advanced stats against the run. The only way this one goes over is if we see fumble/interception return td's or special teams td's. Otherwise, I don't see either team throwing the ball all over the field and piling up the yards and points. As I said, I have this one set at 36, so either I am way off and the line movement is legitimate or I am right and the books are getting set up for a buy back on the under. Only time will tell, but I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Buccaneers/Packers over (48) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to get 47.5, but Pinny started to move the juice on the under to the over at 48.5 so I am jumping on the 48 now. I don't care about the cold weather. I think TB comes out to play and plays hard. I think that effort will be displayed on the offensive side of the ball and they are an "active" dog today. I think we see TB score 21 points or more. Assuming GB gets their usual 28+, this one should sail over the posted total. I have this one set at 50 even, so I will take the two points of value and roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Chargers/Bears under (46) 1.5x (Locked)

No time for a real writeup, but the only way this one goes over is if the Bears get some pick 6 td's or special teams td's etc. I think everyone expecting the over here will be sorely disappointed unless we get some wild plays. The Bears defense has risen in the advanced rankings and although the SD defense has dropped, I still give them some respect with Spikes able to play today. The majority of all bets remain on the over, yet the sharper books are sticking with the number at 45 after dropping from 47 or 46.5 earlier in the week. I agree with the early action on this game that dropped the total and I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #9

Eagles/Giants over (45) 1.5x (Locked)

I could actually make this a 2x play, but the injuries are a bit of a concern. Nevertheless, I am not too concerned about Vick and Maclin being out because the Eagles offense revolves around McCoy. The Eagles are top 5 NFL in Off Rushing DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. On the other side, the once vaunted Giants rushing offense is a bygone of a past Coughlin era as this year's offense is a pass dominated attack. Both of these offensive strengths play into the weaknesses of the opposing defenses where the Eagles defensive numbers against the pass and the Giants defensive numbers against the rush are lacking. I like Vince Young in this spot where he knows it is now or never for his career. This game can go a long way in Young getting another starting job next year for someone. Young knows this and I expect him to play well. I also think Jackson has a lot to prove for the Eagles at WR, where all the balls will be going to him and Celek with Maclin out. My only concern in this game is the line movement which has been steady to the under all week. However, that is the line movement that has provided us enough value to make a play here. I have this one set at 48, a point above the opener. The line movement has now provided us with 3 points of value and I will take it. I am rolling with the over for 1.5x. Good luck.

[Overbettor]

I got it at 46 but im in for 2x. The more I looked at this one the more I liked the over. I completely agree about V. Young and he should give them a spark tonight. Good luck

[Love The Action]

I made Play #9 a 1.5x play. I am going to fade the line movement here. I think people are overestimating the loss of Vick and Maclin. I think we see a shootout tonight. Let's roll. Good luck guys!

[Love The Action]

I got it at 46 but im in for 2x. The more I looked at this one the more I liked the over. I completely agree about V. Young and he should give them a spark tonight. Good luck

That's a bad number, but I don't think it will matter. I think this one flies over the posted total! Plus, we got the luck of your new baby on our side

[Trivial]

Good luck all. If I were to play anything it would be Eagles +6 but I am done. I am not playing anything tonight. So please bet, since no matter which side or o/u you will pick, it will win. LOL.

[Delirium tremens]

I don't know what makes you think all of a sudden Young is a good QB, especially after sitting all season and now facing the Giants D. I think it's going to be a long night for Young.

[Love The Action]

I don't know what makes you think all of a sudden Young is a good QB, especially after sitting all season and now facing the Giants D. I think it's going to be a long night for Young.

I never said Young is a "good" qb. What I did say was that the Eagles should be able to run effectively off the Giants weak run D, which is missing their best linebacker. In addition, Vince Young is around 30-19 as a starting qb in the NFL, so he's not the worst thing in the world. If Rex Grossman can lead his team to 24 points against Dallas' defense (which is better than NYG), then Young can do the same against the Giants. I think we see both teams score in the 20's and the game goes over. Most of the Phillies scoring should come from the run and from the run setting up play action plays. It doesn't take a big game from Young to help this over. He just needs to manage the game and not turn the ball over (unless it's a pick 6 ).

Ofcourse, the early holding penalty on the Eagles opening drive which was looking good, and then the big miss by the Giants TE did not help.

[GoggsViggs]

That's a bad number, but I don't think it will matter. I think this one flies over the posted total! Plus, we got the luck of your new baby on our side

let's get this over!

(damn, i love chris canty's face-mask, so samurai).

[pacocn]

dt, i like your avatar