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  • Love The Action
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-08-10
    • 10952

    #1296
    Originally posted by peterrr
    any early sunday picks LTA?
    Yes, look back a page or two. I am on the Panthers/Lions under at 48.5 for 1x and at 48 for 1x. Good luck .
    Comment
    • Love The Action
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-08-10
      • 10952

      #1297
      Originally posted by suicidekings
      "Gameday limits being raised to max" money. That's when the guys with the deepest pockets and the strongest opinions speak the loudest.
      Right, but that is generally reflected early on game day or in "late" money that comes in like I referenced above. I agree that max bets rule, the question is who is making those max bets and why. The is answer is one only the books know....
      Comment
      • Love The Action
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 11-08-10
        • 10952

        #1298
        Originally posted by pacocn
        Lta, nice call on the under, I also cashed
        the Broncos +6.5 and the 2nd H Over 17.5
        Great job Pac-man!
        Comment
        • Love The Action
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-08-10
          • 10952

          #1299
          Originally posted by Redscot
          You called it Triv. I was very uncomfortable about the game, but thought we'd find a way to win ugly. Ironic that we gave them incredible field position all game and they couldn't do squat with it....then we pin them down and they go 90+ yards for the win .....Not sure what was worse the play call or the execution on Tebows TD run....Obviously Sanchez's pick 6 was the tide turner......Not looking good for gang green that's for sure...I think this will be Schottenheimers last year.

          Oh, and how good is this Von Miller kid! Wow!

          I fell asleep at halftime, so thankfully I did not have to witness the demise of the Jets (or SoMiss for that matter ).

          Sounds like your boy Sanchez is finally starting to listen to the criticism and is letting it affect his confidence.

          I just don't understand how the Jets couldn't stop an option run attack. That is really pathetic. I guess I shouldn't comment because I didn't see the second half, but the Jets knew what the Broncos were going to to do and that they are severely limited from a passing perspective. Why not load the box and make Tebow beat you?

          Any other notes or "takeaways" from the game that you think are noteworthy or helpful for the future. I noticed you like Von Miller. Is he the real deal or Mark Anderson all over again?

          What are your thoughts about NCAAF for tonight....I'll see you in the other thread...

          GL
          Comment
          • Trivial
            SBR MVP
            • 11-22-09
            • 1328

            #1300
            Originally posted by Redscot
            You called it Triv. I was very uncomfortable about the game, but thought we'd find a way to win ugly. Ironic that we gave them incredible field position all game and they couldn't do squat with it....then we pin them down and they go 90+ yards for the win .....Not sure what was worse the play call or the execution on Tebows TD run....Obviously Sanchez's pick 6 was the tide turner......Not looking good for gang green that's for sure...I think this will be Schottenheimers last year.

            Oh, and how good is this Von Miller kid! Wow!

            Thanks Red. My only regret is staying away from it. I did not touch the game at all, not the side or total. Sigh.

            Unfortunately, I had to work last night and did not watch any games at all.

            But ya... I do think Jets and Broncos are making changes to management real soon.

            Comment
            • Love The Action
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-08-10
              • 10952

              #1301
              Wow...just some highlights of last night's game. That was some pathetic defense by the Jets....they gave up.
              Comment
              • Love The Action
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-08-10
                • 10952

                #1302
                Originally posted by Love The Action
                NFL 2011-2012 Week 11

                Play #1

                Panthers/Lions under (48.5) 1x and under (48) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)


                Both offenses regressing. Stafford a bit beaten up plus a broken finger on his throwing hand. Lions are one dimensional right now with no running game. I like the defenses to get it done and I'm rolling with the under for 1x and maybe more. Good luck.
                Play #2

                Buffalo/Miami over (43) 2x (Locked)

                Miami has played to 8 straight unders, so they have to play to another one here...right? Wrong! I love the over and might add to this play tomorrow. Writeup to come. Good luck.
                Comment
                • Futbal
                  SBR Rookie
                  • 11-13-11
                  • 40

                  #1303
                  Sounds good
                  Comment
                  • Trivial
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-22-09
                    • 1328

                    #1304
                    Originally posted by Love The Action
                    Play #2

                    Buffalo/Miami over (43) 2x (Locked)

                    Miami has played to 8 straight unders, so they have to play to another one here...right? Wrong! I love the over and might add to this play tomorrow. Writeup to come. Good luck.
                    I love this over. Both defenses are crap, and the offenses need to prove each other, especially in a divisional game. This game is meant to set up for a rematch.

                    Both offenses will be scoring. I think the Bills are the better team, but I'm not that confident enough to bet it. The over is the play.

                    I am on this play for 5 units personally.
                    Comment
                    • SlickRick1382
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-15-11
                      • 3838

                      #1305
                      Originally posted by Trivial
                      I love this over. Both defenses are crap, and the offenses need to prove each other, especially in a divisional game. This game is meant to set up for a rematch. Both offenses will be scoring. I think the Bills are the better team, but I'm not that confident enough to bet it. The over is the play. I am on this play for 5 units personally.
                      I agree. Miami's offense has gotten better week after week and they have too much pride to roll over, evident by their last two games, with 20 points against a much better Washington Defense.

                      I have two teasers pending on that Over, but obviously I have it a lot lower. I still like it at 43
                      Comment
                      • fecgp40
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 02-01-11
                        • 5750

                        #1306
                        Originally posted by Trivial
                        I love this over. Both defenses are crap, and the offenses need to prove each other, especially in a divisional game. This game is meant to set up for a rematch. Both offenses will be scoring. I think the Bills are the better team, but I'm not that confident enough to bet it. The over is the play. I am on this play for 5 units personally.
                        Ummm... I'm by no means saying they're world beaters, but Miami's defense isn't crap.
                        Comment
                        • Trivial
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-22-09
                          • 1328

                          #1307
                          Originally posted by fecgp40
                          Ummm... I'm by no means saying they're world beaters, but Miami's defense isn't crap.
                          Granted "crap" is harsh, but both defenses are closer to the bottom in stats than from the top of the league.

                          I can admit it about my Bills.

                          Today, I am equally happy when Miami will score.

                          Comment
                          • Love The Action
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-08-10
                            • 10952

                            #1308
                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                            NFL 2011-2012 Week 11

                            Play #1

                            Panthers/Lions under (48.5) 1x and under (48) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)


                            I see both offenses regressing a bit and Carolina starting to stiffen up just a bit on defense. I like this game as solid public fade because Detroit should dominate at home on defense. This Lioins defense is currrently ranked top 5 in the NFL in Def EPA, Def EPA/P, Def WPA, Def SR% and are equally tough against both the run and pass. Plus their DVOA efficiency rating is top 3 NFL. Their recent struggles against the Bears were from two pick 6's and a special teams touchdowns. Plus, Stafford put them in tough positions all game. I don't expect those same struggles because this game will be in the dome at home. Therefore, even though Stafford has a broken bone in his throwing hand, I expect him to be more careful with the football and avoid the turnovers. At the same time, I don't think the Lions will light it up because of their lack of a running game and the possible accuracy issues caused by Stafford's injured throwing hand. The Panthers defense has been improving over their last few games and I expect a solid performance today against the one dimensional Lions. That defensive line of the Lions will frustrate Newton and beat him up all day. I have this one set at 44.5 and we're covering the key numbers of 47 and 48, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

                            Play #2

                            Buffalo/Miami over (43) 2x (Locked)

                            Miami has played to 8 straight unders, so they have to play to another one here...right? Wrong! I love the over in this spot. Its time that this dangerous Buffalo offense breaks out a bit and the Buffalo defense is horrible. Buffalo remains top 10 in Off EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. They remain dangerous from the pass and run despit Fitzpatrick's recent struggles. Miami is ranked in the bottom third of the league in most advanced defenseive categories and I full expect the to give up at least 3 td's to Buffalo today. On the others side, Miami's offense has been on point of late after they made the switch to Moore. They are protecting the ball better and are more balanced between the run and the pass. With Buffalo's defensive injuries and struggles, I expect Miami to find a lot of offensive success today on the ground and through the air. The action is fairly even in this game but I think we will see some steam on the over forcing a closing number of 44 or more. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.
                            Here are some quick thoughts on my first two plays for today. More to come. Good luck.
                            Comment
                            • darkenergy
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-08-09
                              • 4013

                              #1309
                              Lean Tampa/Packers UNDER 48.5. What's your opinion LTA
                              Thanks, and gl today
                              Comment
                              • Love The Action
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-08-10
                                • 10952

                                #1310
                                Originally posted by darkenergy
                                Lean Tampa/Packers UNDER 48.5. What's your opinion LTA
                                Thanks, and gl today
                                I have a strong lean to the over. GL
                                Comment
                                • Love The Action
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-08-10
                                  • 10952

                                  #1311
                                  Why has the Seattle/STL total steadily risen since open? I don't get it...I think someone is setting this up for a big buy back and the under will steam....
                                  Comment
                                  • Trivial
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-22-09
                                    • 1328

                                    #1312
                                    Originally posted by Love The Action
                                    Why has the Seattle/STL total steadily risen since open? I don't get it...I think someone is setting this up for a big buy back and the under will steam....
                                    I am with you. I don't see any injuries on defense or any announcements on defense that would lead me to believe either offense deserves extra credit.
                                    Comment
                                    • Love The Action
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 11-08-10
                                      • 10952

                                      #1313
                                      Originally posted by Love The Action
                                      NFL 2011-2012 Week 11

                                      Play #1

                                      Panthers/Lions under (48.5) 1x and under (48) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)


                                      I see both offenses regressing a bit and Carolina starting to stiffen up just a bit on defense. I like this game as solid public fade because Detroit should dominate at home on defense. This Lioins defense is currrently ranked top 5 in the NFL in Def EPA, Def EPA/P, Def WPA, Def SR% and are equally tough against both the run and pass. Plus their DVOA efficiency rating is top 3 NFL. Their recent struggles against the Bears were from two pick 6's and a special teams touchdowns. Plus, Stafford put them in tough positions all game. I don't expect those same struggles because this game will be in the dome at home. Therefore, even though Stafford has a broken bone in his throwing hand, I expect him to be more careful with the football and avoid the turnovers. At the same time, I don't think the Lions will light it up because of their lack of a running game and the possible accuracy issues caused by Stafford's injured throwing hand. The Panthers defense has been improving over their last few games and I expect a solid performance today against the one dimensional Lions. That defensive line of the Lions will frustrate Newton and beat him up all day. I have this one set at 44.5 and we're covering the key numbers of 47 and 48, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

                                      Play #2

                                      Buffalo/Miami over (43) 2x (Locked)

                                      Miami has played to 8 straight unders, so they have to play to another one here...right? Wrong! I love the over in this spot. Its time that this dangerous Buffalo offense breaks out a bit and the Buffalo defense is horrible. Buffalo remains top 10 in Off EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. They remain dangerous from the pass and run despit Fitzpatrick's recent struggles. Miami is ranked in the bottom third of the league in most advanced defenseive categories and I full expect the to give up at least 3 td's to Buffalo today. On the others side, Miami's offense has been on point of late after they made the switch to Moore. They are protecting the ball better and are more balanced between the run and the pass. With Buffalo's defensive injuries and struggles, I expect Miami to find a lot of offensive success today on the ground and through the air. The action is fairly even in this game but I think we will see some steam on the over forcing a closing number of 44 or more. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.
                                      Play #3

                                      Tennessee/Atlanta under (44.5) 1x (Locked)

                                      No time for writeups as this is the most important time for line movement. We have two teams that will try to establish the run against two defenses that are ready for that strategy. The Titans will not continue to score on special teams as they have been. I do not expect a shootout today as defense should rule with both defense ranked in the top 13 of Def EPA, EPA/P, SR% and WPA. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

                                      Play #4

                                      Bengals/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked)

                                      Pinny started juicing the under 40.5 at -110, so I don't see this one getting back to 41 and I will buy the hook in this rare instance. I generally don't buy points on totals, but I really like the under today and want to have coverage on the most important key total number in the NFL. My biggest fear is that Leon Hall is out for Cincy as the Ray Lewis injury does not scare me as much. However, I think the Bengals will struggle without that Dalton to Green connection and this one stays under the posted total. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                                      Comment
                                      • Donnie Brasco
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 01-04-11
                                        • 862

                                        #1314
                                        Hey boys good luck today! Here's what i got today, booked some early:
                                        Jax pk 1x
                                        Minny pk 1x
                                        Car/det under 48.5 1x
                                        Ariz/sf under 41.5 1x
                                        Bears -3.5 1x
                                        Giants -6 2x
                                        Seattle +1 1x
                                        Titans/falcons over 44.5 1x
                                        Cinncy +7 1x
                                        Dallas -7 1x
                                        Comment
                                        • Love The Action
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-08-10
                                          • 10952

                                          #1315
                                          Originally posted by Love The Action
                                          NFL 2011-2012 Week 11

                                          Play #1

                                          Panthers/Lions under (48.5) 1x and under (48) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)


                                          I see both offenses regressing a bit and Carolina starting to stiffen up just a bit on defense. I like this game as solid public fade because Detroit should dominate at home on defense. This Lioins defense is currrently ranked top 5 in the NFL in Def EPA, Def EPA/P, Def WPA, Def SR% and are equally tough against both the run and pass. Plus their DVOA efficiency rating is top 3 NFL. Their recent struggles against the Bears were from two pick 6's and a special teams touchdowns. Plus, Stafford put them in tough positions all game. I don't expect those same struggles because this game will be in the dome at home. Therefore, even though Stafford has a broken bone in his throwing hand, I expect him to be more careful with the football and avoid the turnovers. At the same time, I don't think the Lions will light it up because of their lack of a running game and the possible accuracy issues caused by Stafford's injured throwing hand. The Panthers defense has been improving over their last few games and I expect a solid performance today against the one dimensional Lions. That defensive line of the Lions will frustrate Newton and beat him up all day. I have this one set at 44.5 and we're covering the key numbers of 47 and 48, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

                                          Play #2

                                          Buffalo/Miami over (43) 2x (Locked)

                                          Miami has played to 8 straight unders, so they have to play to another one here...right? Wrong! I love the over in this spot. Its time that this dangerous Buffalo offense breaks out a bit and the Buffalo defense is horrible. Buffalo remains top 10 in Off EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. They remain dangerous from the pass and run despit Fitzpatrick's recent struggles. Miami is ranked in the bottom third of the league in most advanced defenseive categories and I full expect the to give up at least 3 td's to Buffalo today. On the others side, Miami's offense has been on point of late after they made the switch to Moore. They are protecting the ball better and are more balanced between the run and the pass. With Buffalo's defensive injuries and struggles, I expect Miami to find a lot of offensive success today on the ground and through the air. The action is fairly even in this game but I think we will see some steam on the over forcing a closing number of 44 or more. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

                                          Play #3

                                          Tennessee/Atlanta under (44.5) 1x (Locked)

                                          No time for writeups as this is the most important time for line movement. We have two teams that will try to establish the run against two defenses that are ready for that strategy. The Titans will not continue to score on special teams as they have been. I do not expect a shootout today as defense should rule with both defense ranked in the top 13 of Def EPA, EPA/P, SR% and WPA. I have this one set at 42 and I am rolling with value on the under for 1x. Good luck.

                                          Play #4

                                          Bengals/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked)

                                          Pinny started juicing the under 40.5 at -110, so I don't see this one getting back to 41 and I will buy the hook in this rare instance. I generally don't buy points on totals, but I really like the under today and want to have coverage on the most important key total number in the NFL. My biggest fear is that Leon Hall is out for Cincy as the Ray Lewis injury does not scare me as much. However, I think the Bengals will struggle without that Dalton to Green connection and this one stays under the posted total. Both defenses are to 10 in Def DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, SR% and WPA. I have this one set just over the key number of 37 at 37.5, so I really wanted to be able to cover the 41. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                                          Play #5

                                          Cowboys/Redskins under (42) 1x (Locked)

                                          Been waiting for this number to return. We have two really solid defenses going against one inept offense and one that is a bit overrated after last week's annihilation of the Bills. I have this one set at 40 and I will take a shot here 42 covering the key numbers of 40, 41 and 42. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                                          Comment
                                          • Love The Action
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 11-08-10
                                            • 10952

                                            #1316
                                            Nice...Buffalo steamed to 44 in one big move just like I predicted in my writeup
                                            Comment
                                            • Trivial
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-22-09
                                              • 1328

                                              #1317
                                              Originally posted by Love The Action
                                              Nice...Buffalo steamed to 44 in one big move just like I predicted in my writeup
                                              Awesome work my man.

                                              Comment
                                              • GoggsViggs
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 06-05-10
                                                • 1884

                                                #1318
                                                LTA, bro, could really use your wisdom on hedging my live parlay. if you get this before 1PM, please check your PM? thanks bro and GL today.
                                                Comment
                                                • riffraff24
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 04-20-11
                                                  • 7234

                                                  #1319
                                                  Good luck everyone!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mdfizzle
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 10-19-10
                                                    • 392

                                                    #1320
                                                    Hey LTA,

                                                    will be tailing, can't pick my nose in the NFL.

                                                    Best of Luck!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Love The Action
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 11-08-10
                                                      • 10952

                                                      #1321
                                                      Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                      NFL 2011-2012 Week 11

                                                      Play #1

                                                      Panthers/Lions under (48.5) 1x and under (48) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)


                                                      I see both offenses regressing a bit and Carolina starting to stiffen up just a bit on defense. I like this game as solid public fade because Detroit should dominate at home on defense. This Lioins defense is currrently ranked top 5 in the NFL in Def EPA, Def EPA/P, Def WPA, Def SR% and are equally tough against both the run and pass. Plus their DVOA efficiency rating is top 3 NFL. Their recent struggles against the Bears were from two pick 6's and a special teams touchdowns. Plus, Stafford put them in tough positions all game. I don't expect those same struggles because this game will be in the dome at home. Therefore, even though Stafford has a broken bone in his throwing hand, I expect him to be more careful with the football and avoid the turnovers. At the same time, I don't think the Lions will light it up because of their lack of a running game and the possible accuracy issues caused by Stafford's injured throwing hand. The Panthers defense has been improving over their last few games and I expect a solid performance today against the one dimensional Lions. That defensive line of the Lions will frustrate Newton and beat him up all day. I have this one set at 44.5 and we're covering the key numbers of 47 and 48, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

                                                      Play #2

                                                      Buffalo/Miami over (43) 2x (Locked)

                                                      Miami has played to 8 straight unders, so they have to play to another one here...right? Wrong! I love the over in this spot. Its time that this dangerous Buffalo offense breaks out a bit and the Buffalo defense is horrible. Buffalo remains top 10 in Off EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. They remain dangerous from the pass and run despit Fitzpatrick's recent struggles. Miami is ranked in the bottom third of the league in most advanced defenseive categories and I full expect the to give up at least 3 td's to Buffalo today. On the others side, Miami's offense has been on point of late after they made the switch to Moore. They are protecting the ball better and are more balanced between the run and the pass. With Buffalo's defensive injuries and struggles, I expect Miami to find a lot of offensive success today on the ground and through the air. The action is fairly even in this game but I think we will see some steam on the over forcing a closing number of 44 or more. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

                                                      Play #3

                                                      Tennessee/Atlanta under (44.5) 1x (Locked)

                                                      No time for writeups as this is the most important time for line movement. We have two teams that will try to establish the run against two defenses that are ready for that strategy. The Titans will not continue to score on special teams as they have been. I do not expect a shootout today as defense should rule with both defense ranked in the top 13 of Def EPA, EPA/P, SR% and WPA. I have this one set at 42 and I am rolling with value on the under for 1x. Good luck.

                                                      Play #4

                                                      Bengals/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked)

                                                      Pinny started juicing the under 40.5 at -110, so I don't see this one getting back to 41 and I will buy the hook in this rare instance. I generally don't buy points on totals, but I really like the under today and want to have coverage on the most important key total number in the NFL. My biggest fear is that Leon Hall is out for Cincy as the Ray Lewis injury does not scare me as much. However, I think the Bengals will struggle without that Dalton to Green connection and this one stays under the posted total. Both defenses are to 10 in Def DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, SR% and WPA. I have this one set just over the key number of 37 at 37.5, so I really wanted to be able to cover the 41. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

                                                      Play #5

                                                      Cowboys/Redskins under (42) 1x (Locked)

                                                      Been waiting for this number to return. We have two really solid defenses going against one inept offense and one that is a bit overrated after last week's annihilation of the Bills. I have this one set at 40 and I will take a shot here 42 covering the key numbers of 40, 41 and 42. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                                                      Play #6

                                                      Seahawks/Rams under (41) 1x (Locked)

                                                      I can't believe I was able to get this number, but was able to snatch it went Pinny started steaming over. My local went to 41 briefly before setting back at 40 and I jumped on it. I could be wrong, but I don't think we see that number materialize today. I am very worried about why this number has steadily climbed, but I think we see a big buyback before the game starts. I don't think this is true over money as I think someone is looking for a middle or just looking to get set up for a better number on the under. Once I was able to get 41, I had to jump on it. I have this game set at 36, so I see huge value at any number at 40 or less. Other than the line movement, everything else supports the under. Seattle has a really solid defense with a the Rams improving in that area with Long dominating on the defensive front. Neither team is thriving offensively and the Rams strength on offense is running the ball with Jackson and that plays right into the strength of Seattle's defense which is rated top 5 in the league in advanced stats against the run. The only way this one goes over is if we see fumble/interception return td's or special teams td's. Otherwise, I don't see either team throwing the ball all over the field and piling up the yards and points. As I said, I have this one set at 36, so either I am way off and the line movement is legitimate or I am right and the books are getting set up for a buy back on the under. Only time will tell, but I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • LolsMcwinsey
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 06-08-10
                                                        • 2660

                                                        #1322
                                                        what about card/9ers under
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Love The Action
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 11-08-10
                                                          • 10952

                                                          #1323
                                                          Wow...Cowboys over is steaming...that sucks....
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Love The Action
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-08-10
                                                            • 10952

                                                            #1324
                                                            Originally posted by LolsMcwinsey
                                                            what about card/9ers under
                                                            I have a bit more work to do on that one, however, I would be careful about playing the under on that one below the key number of 41. There is a reason the books opened that one above 41 and the line moves brought it below. That open at 41.5 concerns me. As I said, however, I still need to look at that one some more. GL
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Love The Action
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 11-08-10
                                                              • 10952

                                                              #1325
                                                              Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                              NFL 2011-2012 Week 11

                                                              Play #1

                                                              Panthers/Lions under (48.5) 1x and under (48) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)


                                                              I see both offenses regressing a bit and Carolina starting to stiffen up just a bit on defense. I like this game as solid public fade because Detroit should dominate at home on defense. This Lioins defense is currrently ranked top 5 in the NFL in Def EPA, Def EPA/P, Def WPA, Def SR% and are equally tough against both the run and pass. Plus their DVOA efficiency rating is top 3 NFL. Their recent struggles against the Bears were from two pick 6's and a special teams touchdowns. Plus, Stafford put them in tough positions all game. I don't expect those same struggles because this game will be in the dome at home. Therefore, even though Stafford has a broken bone in his throwing hand, I expect him to be more careful with the football and avoid the turnovers. At the same time, I don't think the Lions will light it up because of their lack of a running game and the possible accuracy issues caused by Stafford's injured throwing hand. The Panthers defense has been improving over their last few games and I expect a solid performance today against the one dimensional Lions. That defensive line of the Lions will frustrate Newton and beat him up all day. I have this one set at 44.5 and we're covering the key numbers of 47 and 48, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

                                                              Play #2

                                                              Buffalo/Miami over (43) 2x (Locked)

                                                              Miami has played to 8 straight unders, so they have to play to another one here...right? Wrong! I love the over in this spot. Its time that this dangerous Buffalo offense breaks out a bit and the Buffalo defense is horrible. Buffalo remains top 10 in Off EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. They remain dangerous from the pass and run despit Fitzpatrick's recent struggles. Miami is ranked in the bottom third of the league in most advanced defenseive categories and I full expect the to give up at least 3 td's to Buffalo today. On the others side, Miami's offense has been on point of late after they made the switch to Moore. They are protecting the ball better and are more balanced between the run and the pass. With Buffalo's defensive injuries and struggles, I expect Miami to find a lot of offensive success today on the ground and through the air. The action is fairly even in this game but I think we will see some steam on the over forcing a closing number of 44 or more. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

                                                              Play #3

                                                              Tennessee/Atlanta under (44.5) 1x (Locked)

                                                              No time for writeups as this is the most important time for line movement. We have two teams that will try to establish the run against two defenses that are ready for that strategy. The Titans will not continue to score on special teams as they have been. I do not expect a shootout today as defense should rule with both defense ranked in the top 13 of Def EPA, EPA/P, SR% and WPA. I have this one set at 42 and I am rolling with value on the under for 1x. Good luck.

                                                              Play #4

                                                              Bengals/Ravens under (41)(-120) 1x (Locked)

                                                              Pinny started juicing the under 40.5 at -110, so I don't see this one getting back to 41 and I will buy the hook in this rare instance. I generally don't buy points on totals, but I really like the under today and want to have coverage on the most important key total number in the NFL. My biggest fear is that Leon Hall is out for Cincy as the Ray Lewis injury does not scare me as much. However, I think the Bengals will struggle without that Dalton to Green connection and this one stays under the posted total. Both defenses are to 10 in Def DVOA, EPA, EPA/P, SR% and WPA. I have this one set just over the key number of 37 at 37.5, so I really wanted to be able to cover the 41. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

                                                              Play #5

                                                              Cowboys/Redskins under (42) 1x (Locked)

                                                              Been waiting for this number to return. We have two really solid defenses going against one inept offense and one that is a bit overrated after last week's annihilation of the Bills. I have this one set at 40 and I will take a shot here 42 covering the key numbers of 40, 41 and 42. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

                                                              Play #6

                                                              Seahawks/Rams under (41) 1x (Locked)

                                                              I can't believe I was able to get this number, but was able to snatch it went Pinny started steaming over. My local went to 41 briefly before setting back at 40 and I jumped on it. I could be wrong, but I don't think we see that number materialize today. I am very worried about why this number has steadily climbed, but I think we see a big buyback before the game starts. I don't think this is true over money as I think someone is looking for a middle or just looking to get set up for a better number on the under. Once I was able to get 41, I had to jump on it. I have this game set at 36, so I see huge value at any number at 40 or less. Other than the line movement, everything else supports the under. Seattle has a really solid defense with a the Rams improving in that area with Long dominating on the defensive front. Neither team is thriving offensively and the Rams strength on offense is running the ball with Jackson and that plays right into the strength of Seattle's defense which is rated top 5 in the league in advanced stats against the run. The only way this one goes over is if we see fumble/interception return td's or special teams td's. Otherwise, I don't see either team throwing the ball all over the field and piling up the yards and points. As I said, I have this one set at 36, so either I am way off and the line movement is legitimate or I am right and the books are getting set up for a buy back on the under. Only time will tell, but I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
                                                              Play #7

                                                              Buccaneers/Packers over (48) 1x (Locked)

                                                              I was waiting to get 47.5, but Pinny started to move the juice on the under to the over at 48.5 so I am jumping on the 48 now. I don't care about the cold weather. I think TB comes out to play and plays hard. I think that effort will be displayed on the offensive side of the ball and they are an "active" dog today. I think we see TB score 21 points or more. Assuming GB gets their usual 28+, this one should sail over the posted total. I have this one set at 50 even, so I will take the two points of value and roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Love The Action
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 11-08-10
                                                                • 10952

                                                                #1326
                                                                Possible big play on the Bears total...waiting on some line movement that I am expecting....
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Delirium tremens
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 02-01-11
                                                                  • 173

                                                                  #1327
                                                                  Good stuff LTA.......good luck!!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • jas19illini
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 10-27-10
                                                                    • 682

                                                                    #1328
                                                                    Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                    Possible big play on the Bears total...waiting on some line movement that I am expecting....
                                                                    What side are you leaning on the O/U?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • cave
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 03-12-10
                                                                      • 437

                                                                      #1329
                                                                      hEY LTA
                                                                      which is your best POD play#1 or play #2 ?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Love The Action
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 11-08-10
                                                                        • 10952

                                                                        #1330
                                                                        Originally posted by cave
                                                                        hEY LTA
                                                                        which is your best POD play#1 or play #2 ?
                                                                        I don't know what you mean? Both plays 1 and 2 are rated the same....both are 2x plays. GL
                                                                        Comment
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