LTA's NFL PLays

[Donnie Brasco]

Looking at tonights game, my model has gb -11.02/51.6. I wanted minny at 14, and i am hoping to see 13 again with public gb money. This gb defense is suspect against the pass. We know petersen will get his and open it up for ponder. I think the over at 49.5 may have promise. I think the minn tt at 19 is low also, i have them at 21.78.
Thoughts?

[Trivial]

Looking at tonights game, my model has gb -11.02/51.6. I wanted minny at 14, and i am hoping to see 13 again with public gb money. This gb defense is suspect against the pass. We know petersen will get his and open it up for ponder. I think the over at 49.5 may have promise. I think the minn tt at 19 is low also, i have them at 21.78.
Thoughts?

The total worries me. I think GB can put up the points, but not sure about Minny. They will get big plays, but enough to score, not sure. I think if I do go with the total, I may go the teaser route either OVER or UNDER but with a 13 point cushion.

I do like the TT though on Minny. That sounds real promising.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011-2012 Week 11

Play #1

Panthers/Lions under (48.5) 1x (Locked)

Both offenses regressing. Stafford a bit beaten up plus a broken finger on his throwing hand. Lions are one dimensional right now with no running game. I like the defenses to get it done and I'm rolling with the under for 1x and maybe more. Good luck.

[Trivial]

The total worries me. I think GB can put up the points, but not sure about Minny. They will get big plays, but enough to score, not sure. I think if I do go with the total, I may go the teaser route either OVER or UNDER but with a 13 point cushion.

I do like the TT though on Minny. That sounds real promising.

The Greek has it at 18.5, but juiced to -115 for the Minny Total.

[Love The Action]

Looking at tonights game, my model has gb -11.02/51.6. I wanted minny at 14, and i am hoping to see 13 again with public gb money. This gb defense is suspect against the pass. We know petersen will get his and open it up for ponder. I think the over at 49.5 may have promise. I think the minn tt at 19 is low also, i have them at 21.78.
Thoughts?

The total worries me. I think GB can put up the points, but not sure about Minny. They will get big plays, but enough to score, not sure. I think if I do go with the total, I may go the teaser route either OVER or UNDER but with a 13 point cushion.

I do like the TT though on Minny. That sounds real promising.

I have the total set at 49 and would play the under at 51. Sharp money on the under all week had dropped the total and I see the packers shutting down the run forcing ponder to beat them. I dont see it happening.

I agree with your number on the side...-11 is a fair number not giving us a ton of value on the pack, even though I still lean to them because you would be crazy not to.

Good luck in whatever you choose.

[Trivial]

The total worries me. I think GB can put up the points, but not sure about Minny. They will get big plays, but enough to score, not sure. I think if I do go with the total, I may go the teaser route either OVER or UNDER but with a 13 point cushion.

I do like the TT though on Minny. That sounds real promising.

I have the total set at 49 and would play the under at 51. Sharp money on the under all week had dropped the total and I see the packers shutting down the run forcing ponder to beat them. I dont see it happening.

I agree with your number on the side...-11 is a fair number giving us some value on the pack.

Good luck in whatever you choose.

Heya LTA.. Not sure I get the comment. If the model has the line as -11 for GB, and the line is -13 for GB, isn't that saying that there is no value for GB?

I can get 50.5 at Bodog right now, but I don't think I'm playing the side or the Total. The Minny Total is very very tempting that Donnie pointed out.

Thanks.

[Love The Action]

Heya LTA.. Not sure I get the comment. If the model has the line as -11 for GB, and the line is -13 for GB, isn't that saying that there is no value for GB?

I can get 50.5 at Bodog right now, but I don't think I'm playing the side or the Total. The Minny Total is very very tempting that Donnie pointed out.

Thanks.

That's correct...i meant not much value but typing on the phone with that swype function makes typos sometimes. I fixed it. However, I still lean to the pack because rodgers is unstoppable right now.

I would only take the under at 51 or better. Remember...key numbers make all the difference in the nfl and primarily why I pushed on the steelers and falcons games yesterday.

[Trivial]

That's correct...i meant not much value but typing on the phone with that swype function makes typos sometimes. I fixed it. However, I still lean to the pack because rodgers is unstoppable right now.

I would only take the under at 51 or better. Remember...key numbers make all the difference in the nfl and primarily why I pushed on the steelers and falcons games yesterday.

Thanks LTA. Fully agree on the key numbers. They are key for a reason.

I know about typing on the phone. It is evil. I have made many mistakes as well.

Still don't like the high spreads as you. I'm staying away. I might do a teaser or TT, but otherwise, I'm a no play.

Best of luck to all.

[Donnie Brasco]

Flushed 2 on the jets, -2.2 units
5-2, +3.7 units

Nice over LTA!

Adding vikes tt over 19 1x

[Trivial]

Adding vikes tt over 19 1x

Just locked in for 18.5 at the Greek for 1.5x.

I could have gotten 19 at 5D for -110, but I decided the extra juice is worth the cushion with all the chaos this past weekend with missed field goals, and extra points, etc.

Too bad. Pinny has it at 17.5 but I am out of funds at Pinny, and no way to get them into it before end of day today. Sigh.

GL Donnie. I am with you.

[SlickRick1382]

Looking at tonights game, my model has gb -11.02/51.6. I wanted minny at 14, and i am hoping to see 13 again with public gb money. This gb defense is suspect against the pass. We know petersen will get his and open it up for ponder. I think the over at 49.5 may have promise. I think the minn tt at 19 is low also, i have them at 21.78. Thoughts?

A little comforting seeing that someone else saw that and thought it was a decent bet. My book has them at 18 and I was tempted to take them. They did hang 23 or 24 on GB two weeks ago when they played and did have the bye to prepare. Only concern is it's on the road at Lambeau Field. still think I'll toss a unit on it at 18.

[csavoia]

what is TT mean?

[hydrosmak]

what is TT mean?

Team Total pts.

[Trivial]

what is TT mean?

Team total. Means we are wagering that Minny will score more than 19 points in the entire game.

[Love The Action]

Adding vikes tt over 19 1x

Good luck. I dont see Ponder getting three td's against GB on the road. Big difference between coming off the bench and starting against what I think is an underrated GB defense, especially at home. However, I have no action on that play so I will be rooting for you guys. Good luck

[Overbettor]

My local has it at 49.5 and im seriously considering it as I see pack putting up close to 40 by themselves. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

[csavoia]

thanks guys i thought it may be that but did not want to assume.. took vikings plus 20.5 and over 43.5 in a teaser.

[Trivial]

Good luck. I dont see Ponder getting three td's against GB on the road. Big difference between coming off the bench and starting against what I think is an underrated GB defense, especially at home. However, I have no action on that play so I will be rooting for you guys. Good luck

Thanks LTA. Appreciate it. I need this.

[SlickRick1382]

Good luck. I dont see Ponder getting three td's against GB on the road. Big difference between coming off the bench and starting against what I think is an underrated GB defense, especially at home. However, I have no action on that play so I will be rooting for you guys. Good luck

Wound up passing. At 17 I would of risked it with the possibility of a push but at 18 I think I should lay off.

LTA, correct me if I'm wrong but aren't MNF generally low scoring affairs? Which if the case, doesn't bode well.

[SlickRick1382]

I have the total set at 49 and would play the under at 51. Sharp money on the under all week had dropped the total and I see the packers shutting down the run forcing ponder to beat them. I dont see it happening. I agree with your number on the side...-11 is a fair number not giving us a ton of value on the pack, even though I still lean to them because you would be crazy not to. Good luck in whatever you choose.

Total has been rising. Was already 48.5 when I checked earlier today and now that I looked back it's gone up to 50. Looks like some more public money has been coming in on the over. May be able to catch the 51 after all.

@Donnie
Sportsinsights shows all the steam moves on the Under for this game btw.

[Anthonyg7]

Total opened up at 51 and currently sits at 48.5 with 78% on the over. Thinking about playing the under here.. I dont see Minny putting many points on the road.

[Donnie Brasco]

Vikings +13 1x locked

Still at work, so wont be longwinded. Yes i am betting against the greatest team in the world at home. That said, this gb defense is giving up points in bunches. If minn can win take care of the football, let ap get his, and put some pressure on rodgers via jared allen, they stay in this one. The vikings have some swag behind ponder, and they come to play tonight. Good luck boys! Also on vikess tt over 19 1x as posted earlier.

[Love The Action]

Vikings +13 1x locked

Still at work, so wont be longwinded. Yes i am betting against the greatest team in the world at home. That said, this gb defense is giving up points in bunches. If minn can win take care of the football, let ap get his, and put some pressure on rodgers via jared allen, they stay in this one. The vikings have some swag behind ponder, and they come to play tonight. Good luck boys! Also on vikess tt over 19 1x as posted earlier.

Good luck Donnie...those are a lot of "ifs" for a rookie qb playing against the world champs. I dont see it happening, but the nfl is all about the unexpected. GL

[Love The Action]

Total opened up at 51 and currently sits at 48.5 with 78% on the over. Thinking about playing the under here.. I dont see Minny putting many points on the road.

I like the under too, but be careful about the key numbers. This one opened at the key number of 51 for a reason and I sure wouldn't play it below the key number of 49, much less 51. GL

[Love The Action]

Total has been rising. Was already 48.5 when I checked earlier today and now that I looked back it's gone up to 50. Looks like some more public money has been coming in on the over. May be able to catch the 51 after all.

@Donnie
Sportsinsights shows all the steam moves on the Under for this game btw.

The total has dropped except at bodog where it is 50.5 now. Again, I can't recommend the under unless you can get 51. GL

[Love The Action]

My local has it at 49.5 and im seriously considering it as I see pack putting up close to 40 by themselves. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

I like the under at 51 or better. GL

[SlickRick1382]

The total has dropped except at bodog where it is 50.5 now. Again, I can't recommend the under unless you can get 51. GL

I bought the hook to get it at 51. Was it worth it or should I just laid off this bet? And you're right it's dropped back down to 49 on my book.

P.S. Did you get a chance to see my pm? Just trying to help in anyway I can.

P.S.S. Is there a specific reason that Olympic, Pinny, etc. have it at 49.5? New to this all so trying to understand which way they're trying to entice the public to bet. Not sure if they want you to take the under since you can still get the key number of 49 thinking it goes over or what. Sorry if the question is dumb. I know they obviously want equal money on both sides but why not protect themselves at they key # of 49? to at least get a push

[Love The Action]

I bought the hook to get it at 51. Was it worth it or should I just laid off this bet? And you're right it's dropped back down to 49 on my book.

P.S. Did you get a chance to see my pm? Just trying to help in anyway I can.

P.S.S. Is there a specific reason that Olympic, Pinny, etc. have it at 49.5? New to this all so trying to understand which way they're trying to entice the public to bet. Not sure if they want you to take the under since you can still get the key number of 49 thinking it goes over or what. Sorry if the question is dumb. I know they obviously want equal money on both sides but why not protect themselves at they key # of 49? to at least get a push

Yes, thanks. I just cant respond to your question above on my phone because it requires detailed analysis. I will respond to your question and pm once I get home from work. GL

[SlickRick1382]

Yes, thanks. I just cant respond to your question above on my phone because it requires detailed analysis. I will respond to your question and pm once I get home from work. GL

Forget you use your phone to access the boards most of the time. Sorry about that. Appreciate the response, take your time.

[Overbettor]

I like the under at 51 or better. GL

Thank you for the advice. I think I'll just play small on the pack.

[bekmurat]

breaking bad . . . this is cool )))

[kts]

[Love The Action]

[Love The Action]

breaking bad . . . this is cool )))

[kts]

Any plays yet lta?