LTA's NFL PLays

[The Coach's Desk]

BOL LTA,
I have TB as well
keep up the great work you do, love the research

[GoggsViggs]

LTA, Bol this weekend bro. I teased the falcons to +8.5 so hope we both win.

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA,

like your Cards & TB Picks. What do you think about the Bills + 7 and Dolphins ML ?

[Love The Action]

NFL Week 3

Play #1

Broncos/Titans over (41) 2x (Locked)

I have this one at 49, so I have to jump on it for multiple units. This should be Chris Johnson's break out game against a banged up Denver defense. Moreover, he has now gotten caught up physically and football shape-wise after the holdout. With Hassleback playing so well and Britt emerging as a legitimate number one receiver threat, I think this total is way too low. On the other side, Orton will be forced to pass early and often because I expect Tennessee to jump out to the early lead. Because they held Brandon Lloyd out last week, the should be 100% and ready to go full speed. With Decker emerging out of need, I think we will see a more pass happy Broncos on Sunday. I think Orton is up for this challenge. I see Tennessee scoring at least four touchdowns on Sunday, which will require at least two touchdowns from the Broncos to cash this one. Although Tennessee's defense was impressive against Baltimore, the NFL fluctuates from week to week and you need to be able to anticipate how teams react after certain situations. I think Tennessee's defense ends up being a bit vulnerable through the air and the Broncos defense to just get shredded. I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Packers/Bears under (46) 1x (Locked)

I think this line will close around 45 or less. I have it at 43, but you may see an even lower scoring game. First, Cutler's favorite target Earl Bennett is out with an injury after taking a helmet to the chest last week. Second, the Bears offensive line was exposed last week by the Saints' complicated blitz scheme and losing Karimi at right tackle is going to kill the Bears and their ability to pass protect. Green Bay will follow the Saints blue print and bring constant pressure to fluster Cutler and force him away from his footwork and fundamentals. To counteract this, Lovie has ordered Martz to begin running the football more and using Forte as much as possible. This will lead to more carries and the Bears' desire to keep Rodgers and that dangerous offense off the field. On the other side, the Bears defense is solid with a front four highlighted by Peppers and an up and comer in Melton, a linebackers corps which is one of the best in the league and a weaker secondary compensated for by the cover 2 scheme. I think the Bears will be able to keep the Packers to 24 points or less and the Bears are not getting more than 21. Consequently, I see this one as being one of rare few unders so far this season and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cardinals (-3.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten this at -3 for -130, but screw that. I don't think this one is even close. All you have to do is look for playmakers on both sides of the ball and go position by position between the two teams. It's not even close on offense. The Cardinals have the better quarterback, wide receivers, running backs and line for that matter. I would also argue the Cardinals have the better defensive groups as well, although both teams defense has gotten shredded. Finally, I always like to look at coaching. In this game, you have Whisenhut versus Carroll. At this point, I have the Cardinals coaching staff the clear edge in that matchup with respect to coordination, play calling and clock management. I have the Cardinals as -5 on the road, so I'm not going to sweat the hook on this one. I'm rolling with the Cardinals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Tampa Bay (-1) 1x (Locked)

This number is a steal. The Falcons beat the Bucs in some close games last year and I expect the Bucs to exact some revenge this week. I have the Bucs at -3, so I think we have some nice value here. Atlanta was a bit lucky this year and that luck did not carry over to this year. We all know Matty Ice is crucial to Atlanta's success and with his knee injury, you might just end up seeing Chris Redmond a little bit on Sunday. Tampa's young defense should pounce on that opportunity. However, I expect TB's offense to eat the Falcons up on Sunday. I use a lot of advanced efficiency stats in my NFL capping and TB's offense is way more efficient than the Falcons. With Tampa playing at home, rocking the revenge angle and outplaying Atl on offense, I see a win in TB's near future. I'm rolling with the Bucs for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Teaser
Raiders (+9)/Vikings (+9) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups with all the action today but I love these two dogs...might as well tease them! Good luck!

[Love The Action]

NFL Recap 2011 Week 2

5 - 4 = +0.6x

NFL 2011 Season

9 - 11 = -2.4x

That's where we are going into week 3. I don't list pushes in my seasonal records, but we had two pushes in week one that is the difference between a break-even NFL season so far and a season in the red. Regardless, that's not a good start. Thank God it's only week 3!!! Plenty of time and I think we do very well this week. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

BOL LTA,
I have TB as well
keep up the great work you do, love the research

Good luck Coach! Let's get it

[Love The Action]

LTA, Bol this weekend bro. I teased the falcons to +8.5 so hope we both win.

Good luck GV! I hope we both cash as well and I think we will...3 point win for TB!

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA,

like your Cards & TB Picks. What do you think about the Bills + 7 and Dolphins ML ?

I won't put my money against the Pats right now...all the stats disagree. I do really like that over...I just can't bet it now that it's all the way at 54 or more. Maybe an action parlay type thing....

I bet on the Dolphins last week and they looked AWFUL at home. With that said, I do think they probably win. I just can't back them because I have such a bad taste in my mouth from last week (missed fg's, fumbles, poor clock management, play calling sucked, etc.).

Good luck

[Bgates311]

My bad Bro - Found them

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011 Week 3

Play #1

Broncos/Titans over (41) 2x (Locked)

I have this one at 49, so I have to jump on it for multiple units. This should be Chris Johnson's break out game against a banged up Denver defense. Moreover, he has now gotten caught up physically and football shape-wise after the holdout. With Hassleback playing so well and Britt emerging as a legitimate number one receiver threat, I think this total is way too low. On the other side, Orton will be forced to pass early and often because I expect Tennessee to jump out to the early lead. Because they held Brandon Lloyd out last week, the should be 100% and ready to go full speed. With Decker emerging out of need, I think we will see a more pass happy Broncos on Sunday. I think Orton is up for this challenge. I see Tennessee scoring at least four touchdowns on Sunday, which will require at least two touchdowns from the Broncos to cash this one. Although Tennessee's defense was impressive against Baltimore, the NFL fluctuates from week to week and you need to be able to anticipate how teams react after certain situations. I think Tennessee's defense ends up being a bit vulnerable through the air and the Broncos defense to just get shredded. I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Packers/Bears under (46) 1x (Locked)

I think this line will close around 45 or less. I have it at 43, but you may see an even lower scoring game. First, Cutler's favorite target Earl Bennett is out with an injury after taking a helmet to the chest last week. Second, the Bears offensive line was exposed last week by the Saints' complicated blitz scheme and losing Karimi at right tackle is going to kill the Bears and their ability to pass protect. Green Bay will follow the Saints blue print and bring constant pressure to fluster Cutler and force him away from his footwork and fundamentals. To counteract this, Lovie has ordered Martz to begin running the football more and using Forte as much as possible. This will lead to more carries and the Bears' desire to keep Rodgers and that dangerous offense off the field. On the other side, the Bears defense is solid with a front four highlighted by Peppers and an up and comer in Melton, a linebackers corps which is one of the best in the league and a weaker secondary compensated for by the cover 2 scheme. I think the Bears will be able to keep the Packers to 24 points or less and the Bears are not getting more than 21. Consequently, I see this one as being one of rare few unders so far this season and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cardinals (-3.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten this at -3 for -130, but screw that. I don't think this one is even close. All you have to do is look for playmakers on both sides of the ball and go position by position between the two teams. It's not even close on offense. The Cardinals have the better quarterback, wide receivers, running backs and line for that matter. I would also argue the Cardinals have the better defensive groups as well, although both teams defense has gotten shredded. Finally, I always like to look at coaching. In this game, you have Whisenhut versus Carroll. At this point, I have the Cardinals coaching staff the clear edge in that matchup with respect to coordination, play calling and clock management. I have the Cardinals as -5 on the road, so I'm not going to sweat the hook on this one. I'm rolling with the Cardinals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Tampa Bay (-1) 1x (Locked)

This number is a steal. The Falcons beat the Bucs in some close games last year and I expect the Bucs to exact some revenge this week. I have the Bucs at -3, so I think we have some nice value here. Atlanta was a bit lucky this year and that luck did not carry over to this year. We all know Matty Ice is crucial to Atlanta's success and with his knee injury, you might just end up seeing Chris Redmond a little bit on Sunday. Tampa's young defense should pounce on that opportunity. However, I expect TB's offense to eat the Falcons up on Sunday. I use a lot of advanced efficiency stats in my NFL capping and TB's offense is way more efficient than the Falcons. With Tampa playing at home, rocking the revenge angle and outplaying Atl on offense, I see a win in TB's near future. I'm rolling with the Bucs for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Teaser
Raiders (+9)/Vikings (+9) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups with all the action today but I love these two dogs...might as well tease them! Good luck!

So far it look like the market agrees with our plays.

Our big play on the Den/Ten over is up to 44, three points more than the 41 we locked in on Tuesday.

The GB/Chi total is down to 44, two points less than the 46 we locked in.

TB is up to -2 or getting juiced big time at -1.

Our only mistake was jumping on AZ at -3.5. I could have gotten -3 today. I don't think it will matter though, plus we got -3.5 at -105.

Our teaser is looking good too, since Oakland is getting a ton of money right now and went down to +2.5 in some spots. Although, Detroit is starting to get more action right now pushing that one back towards -3.5 from -3 (but still down from the open of -4).

I'm watching the lines now, waiting to pounce if we see some value emerge from these wild shifts. Good luck today!

[Love The Action]

Looking at Det/Minny over, Atl/TB over and NYJ/Oak over....

[Love The Action]

What's cookin' Doc?

What about you? What are you teasing/playing?

[Redscot]

What about you? What are you teasing/playing?

Been busy as hell bro, pretty much tailing you. Have a series of teases locked in teasing S.F. to + 8 1/2, N.E. to -2 1/2, Miami to + 8 1/2, Atlanta to +8, and the Eagles to -2 1/2 all the 2 and 3 combos.

Here's hoping to a great day , enjoy the games and the fam my man.

[Love The Action]

Been busy as hell bro, pretty much tailing you. Have a series of teases locked in teasing S.F. to + 8 1/2, N.E. to -2 1/2, Miami to + 8 1/2, Atlanta to +8, and the Eagles to -2 1/2 all the 2 and 3 combos.

Here's hoping to a great day , enjoy the games and the fam my man.

Same to you...happy Sunday!

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011 Week 3

Play #1

Broncos/Titans over (41) 2x (Locked)

I have this one at 49, so I have to jump on it for multiple units. This should be Chris Johnson's break out game against a banged up Denver defense. Moreover, he has now gotten caught up physically and football shape-wise after the holdout. With Hassleback playing so well and Britt emerging as a legitimate number one receiver threat, I think this total is way too low. On the other side, Orton will be forced to pass early and often because I expect Tennessee to jump out to the early lead. Because they held Brandon Lloyd out last week, the should be 100% and ready to go full speed. With Decker emerging out of need, I think we will see a more pass happy Broncos on Sunday. I think Orton is up for this challenge. I see Tennessee scoring at least four touchdowns on Sunday, which will require at least two touchdowns from the Broncos to cash this one. Although Tennessee's defense was impressive against Baltimore, the NFL fluctuates from week to week and you need to be able to anticipate how teams react after certain situations. I think Tennessee's defense ends up being a bit vulnerable through the air and the Broncos defense to just get shredded. I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Packers/Bears under (46) 1x (Locked)

I think this line will close around 45 or less. I have it at 43, but you may see an even lower scoring game. First, Cutler's favorite target Earl Bennett is out with an injury after taking a helmet to the chest last week. Second, the Bears offensive line was exposed last week by the Saints' complicated blitz scheme and losing Karimi at right tackle is going to kill the Bears and their ability to pass protect. Green Bay will follow the Saints blue print and bring constant pressure to fluster Cutler and force him away from his footwork and fundamentals. To counteract this, Lovie has ordered Martz to begin running the football more and using Forte as much as possible. This will lead to more carries and the Bears' desire to keep Rodgers and that dangerous offense off the field. On the other side, the Bears defense is solid with a front four highlighted by Peppers and an up and comer in Melton, a linebackers corps which is one of the best in the league and a weaker secondary compensated for by the cover 2 scheme. I think the Bears will be able to keep the Packers to 24 points or less and the Bears are not getting more than 21. Consequently, I see this one as being one of rare few unders so far this season and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cardinals (-3.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten this at -3 for -130, but screw that. I don't think this one is even close. All you have to do is look for playmakers on both sides of the ball and go position by position between the two teams. It's not even close on offense. The Cardinals have the better quarterback, wide receivers, running backs and line for that matter. I would also argue the Cardinals have the better defensive groups as well, although both teams defense has gotten shredded. Finally, I always like to look at coaching. In this game, you have Whisenhut versus Carroll. At this point, I have the Cardinals coaching staff the clear edge in that matchup with respect to coordination, play calling and clock management. I have the Cardinals as -5 on the road, so I'm not going to sweat the hook on this one. I'm rolling with the Cardinals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Tampa Bay (-1) 1x (Locked)

This number is a steal. The Falcons beat the Bucs in some close games last year and I expect the Bucs to exact some revenge this week. I have the Bucs at -3, so I think we have some nice value here. Atlanta was a bit lucky this year and that luck did not carry over to this year. We all know Matty Ice is crucial to Atlanta's success and with his knee injury, you might just end up seeing Chris Redmond a little bit on Sunday. Tampa's young defense should pounce on that opportunity. However, I expect TB's offense to eat the Falcons up on Sunday. I use a lot of advanced efficiency stats in my NFL capping and TB's offense is way more efficient than the Falcons. With Tampa playing at home, rocking the revenge angle and outplaying Atl on offense, I see a win in TB's near future. I'm rolling with the Bucs for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Teaser
Raiders (+9)/Vikings (+9) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups with all the action today but I love these two dogs...might as well tease them! Good luck!

Play #6

Jets/Raiders over (40)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Never buy points on totals. However, in this case I am bucking my own advice. This line dropped steadily from 42 down to 40.5. I don't think it will get to 40 on its own, so I'm buying it now before the total goes back up to 41, which, as you know, is such a vital key number when it comes to NFL totals. I have this one at 43, so we are getting a full fg worth of value by buying it down to 40. You can't make a living doing this on a regular basis, but if you pick your spots and how it relates to key numbers it can be profitable long term. In this game, I see the Raiders surprising the Jets a little bit with their offensive fire power. Make no mistake, the Raiders are one of the better offensive teams because of their ability to run the ball. McFadden is a monster and they have RB rotation which is one of the tops in the league. They will need it against the Jets who sport a top defense, however, even the Jets are vulnerable to players as good as McFadden. Jason Campbell can be an efficient quarterback if given the time to throw, but also has some mobility if he gets flushed out of the pocket. I worry a bit about the Raiders WR corp, but the running game helps out a lot with play action possibilities. The Jets offense is not as efficient, but they can put up the points. The Jets have a solid TE and WR who are explosive. The Jets also have a great ability in running the ball and the Raiders defense has proven to vulnerable in both games so far. My worry is that both teams get bogged down in a running-ball-control-punt-fest, but the offensive output set forth so far this season makes me think we see at least 43 today and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Seahawks are gonna win divisional games at home this year. This is just like last year week 1 when everyone was on 49ers -3.5 and they lost by like 20 . This has sucker bet written all over it. +170 on the ML is a nice price for Seattle at home against a sh*t team,

Nice call TonyP

[Love The Action]

NFL Recap Week 3

4 - 2 = +0.8x

NFL 2011 Season

13 - 13 = -1.6x

A tough loss with our 2x play on the Denver/Tenn over. However, we bought it at 41 and it closed at 44. So if we can do that on all of our plays we will end up rich. At least we made a little profit for back to back weeks and 2 out of 3 weeks so far. The record is back to .500, but remains slightly in the red because of the loss on our bigger plays. Time to make a move for week 4. Expect some plays to be locked in on Tuesday. I might have a play tonight or tomorrow depending on line movement.

Good luck.

[815Sox]

Thanks as always LTA. I jumped on a few of your picks. I did okay today.

[Love The Action]

Thanks as always LTA. I jumped on a few of your picks. I did okay today.

Plenty of time my friend...

[Love The Action]

NFL Week 3 Action Teaser (Not for records win or lose)

Steelers (-5.5)/Over 33.5

To win 0.20x

I want a little action on tonight's game. I like the Steelers to rock and roll all over the Colts. I actually was gong to play the Steelers if I was able to get -10. That never materialized, so I'll take a shot with a fun teaser. I have the total at 39 on this one, so there's plenty of value 6 points less. The Steelers will run all over the Colts week run defense and I see this one ending 24-13. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

Kenny Britt of the Titans most likely out for the year...that's going to hurt Hasselback...ouch.

[fly fisher]

I am on the colts at 11 and 11.5 for the game and a team total of 7 for 1H and also on the team total of 14.5 for the game, I really hope you get your total, and I hope I can get the colts to cover these numbers.

[fly fisher]

Kenny Britt of the Titans most likely out for the year...that's going to hurt Hasselback...ouch.

Damn, that was one of my FF recievers, I hope he heals well for his career. For me, I better get busy on the waiver wire.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011 Week 4

Play #1

Patriots/Raiders over (53) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Jets/Ravens over (40) 1x (Locked)

Writeups to come later in the week....might have a few more early ones as well. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011 Week 3

Play #7

Redskins (+3.5) 1x (Locked)

I can't believe I was able to get 3.5 in this one when you consider all of the cowboys injuries. I expect a close divisional game decided by three points or less. If I have time, I will post a full writeup. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

I got 4 earlier in week and jumped! Bol!

[815Sox]

LTA, what do you think about the Pats/Raiders at 53.5? Would you still play it?

[gambling god]

Goodluck LTA i am on it with you

[815Sox]

Like the Skins play, didn't put in a bet, but may try to at halftime! Sexy Rexy may be reaching some of the potential that we expected to see in Chicago.

[815Sox]

Just out a small one on the Skins, thinking about putting some on the money line depending on value.

[Love The Action]

NFL Recap Week 3

5 - 2 = +1.8x

NFL 2011 Season

14 - 13 = -0.6x

A nice Redskins cover for back to back profitable weeks, to put our rough week one behind us. Onto Week 4. Here is what we have so far:

NFL 2011 Week 4

Play #1

Patriots/Raiders over (53) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Jets/Ravens over (40) 1x (Locked)

Writeups to come....GL.

[815Sox]

opps, realized I already asked the question above.

[Love The Action]

opps, realized I already asked the question above.

Yes...i would play the pats/raiders over at 53.5...

[Love The Action]

NFL 2011 Week 4

Play #1

Patriots/Raiders over (53) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Jets/Ravens over (40) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Jets (+3.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Teaser
Steelers (+10)/Lions (+8) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Writeups to come...good luck.

[blumpkin]

LTA Thoughts on Pitt/Houst Over 44.5 and NyG/Zona over 44
thx