LTA's NFL PLays

[Love The Action]

Now these Miami fuks fumble at mid field after getting the score 16-10 and holding Houston on the ensuing drive. Man, I did not expect Miami to play so poor against such a bad road team...damn.

[Love The Action]

I can't believe I wasted my money on the fuking Dolphins and 49ers under.

This is the second week in a row that games I added on during Sunday cost me a winning day. For now on, I sticking to all plays that book during the week. If it's not booked by Saturday, I'm not fuking playing it. God damn I am really pissed about adding those late plays.

[815Sox]

I played the Bengals, so that will cover the Dolphins, but I am surprised Miami looked that damn bad.

[Love The Action]

I played the Bengals, so that will cover the Dolphins, but I am surprised Miami looked that damn bad.

2 turnovers and two missed fg's for miami..sparano needs to be fired.

[Love The Action]

NFL Week 2 (9/18/11-9/19/11)

Play #1

KC/Detroit over (44.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Oakland/Buffalo over (41.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Seattle/Pittsburgh over (38.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Baltimore/Tennessee over (37.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

6 point teaser
Dolphins (+9)/Colts (+8) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

Play #6

Bears/Saints under (48) 1x (Locked)


Play #7

Cowboys/49ers under (41) 1x (Locked)

Play #8

Miami (+3)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Play #9

Eagles/Falcons over (49) 1x (Locked)

I had to take it once I could get 49 and shoot for a profitable day in nfl. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Play #9

Eagles/Falcons over (49) 1x (Locked)

I had to take it once I could get 49 and shoot for a profitable day in nfl. Good luck.

Nice hit on the late game bud. Take Miami out of the equation and it was a pretty big day, finished in the black though Next week you take the books to the cleaners.

[Love The Action]

Nice hit on the late game bud. Take Miami out of the equation and it was a pretty big day, finished in the black though Next week you take the books to the cleaners.

Yeah...the the dolphins screwed us...thats ok though...i am very excited about week 3 in football. That's right around when I start playing more aggressively because I have more current data.

I have my eyes on a total for week 3, that if I can get the current number when my local opens, may just be a 2x or 3x play.

Any leans for tonight? I tend to think the under hits tonight. not sure about the side.

Big week ahead!

[Redscot]

I would lean under as well here, two conservative coaches. Giants should have Tuck back and that may remedy some their pass defense which got picked apart last week by none other than Rex Grossman. Also, Bradfordwill be wearing a special glove on his throwing hand supposedly which could hinder him. So many injuries on both sides makes this game a little hard to read honestly. Doesn't seem like weather or wind will be a factor. End of the day, based on the limited offensive options, and the coaches familiarity and defensive/ball control philosophies my only play on this game would be under. Gonna wait till this evening though for any injury updates.

[Love The Action]

Agreed...it's just tough taking unders these days until ther books start adjusting and adding on an extra fg to most totals. I think they have started this for week 3, but I still think I've spotted a few nice over opportunities.

[Love The Action]

NFL Week 3

Play #1

Broncos/Titans over (41) 2x (Locked)

I love this play. Lloyd will play... first multiple unit play of the year...writeup to come...good luck.

[alamo]

Good job LTA

[815Sox]

NFL Week 3

Play #1

Broncos/Titans over (41) 2x (Locked)

I love this play. Lloyd will play... first multiple unit play of the year...writeup to come...good luck.

Its up to 42 in many places, would you still go for it?

[Love The Action]

Its up to 42 in many places, would you still go for it?

41 is a very important key number for nfl totals...perhaps the most important.
With that said, I would probably take this even at 43....I specifically ran the numbers on this one last night and have it at 49. Therefore, I think we have quite a bit of value here. This is my highest rated play of the season so far and wish I would have hit it harder than 2x. I didnt think it would go up so fast......

[815Sox]

41 is a very important key number for nfl totals...perhaps the most important.
With that said, I would probably take this even at 43....I specifically ran the numbers on this one last night and have it at 49. Therefore, I think we have quite a bit of value here. This is my highest rated play of the season so far and wish I would have hit it harder than 2x. I didnt think it would go up so fast......

Thanks for the info and the tutelage! I am still learning when it comes to football. Still learning about lots of things capping related actually..

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the info and the tutelage! I am still learning when it comes to football. Still learning about lots of things capping related actually..

[Redscot]

Yup, I am at 42 here as well. I notice that Pinny is already juicing the over 42 to as well, definitely encourage playing it now if you are gonna be on it peeps. If LTA has it at 49 the books will almost surely keep moving in that direction.

Early Wong candidates for Week 3:

San Fran
Miami
Atlanta (depending on book)

Tennessee, New England and Seattle are also on the cusp.

[Redscot]

Gabbert getting the start for Jacksonville against Carolina.

[odog11]

41 is a very important key number for nfl totals...perhaps the most important. With that said, I would probably take this even at 43....I specifically ran the numbers on this one last night and have it at 49. Therefore, I think we have quite a bit of value here. This is my highest rated play of the season so far and wish I would have hit it harder than 2x. I didnt think it would go up so fast......

LTA do you(or anyone else) know a site that has the stats on total probabilities? I played this at 42, but could have had under 41 at -130.

[Love The Action]

NFL Week 3

Play #1

Broncos/Titans over (41) 2x (Locked)

I have this one at 49, so I have to jump on it for multiple units. This should be Chris Johnson's break out game against a banged up Denver defense. Moreover, he has now gotten caught up physically and football shape-wise after the holdout. With Hassleback playing so well and Britt emerging as a legitimate number one receiver threat, I think this total is way too low. On the other side, Orton will be forced to pass early and often because I expect Tennessee to jump out to the early lead. Because they held Brandon Lloyd out last week, the should be 100% and ready to go full speed. With Decker emerging out of need, I think we will see a more pass happy Broncos on Sunday. I think Orton is up for this challenge. I see Tennessee scoring at least four touchdowns on Sunday, which will require at least two touchdowns from the Broncos to cash this one. Although Tennessee's defense was impressive against Baltimore, the NFL fluctuates from week to week and you need to be able to anticipate how teams react after certain situations. I think Tennessee's defense ends up being a bit vulnerable through the air and the Broncos defense to just get shredded. I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Packers/Bears under (46) 1x (Locked)

I think this line will close around 45 or less. I have it at 43, but you may see an even lower scoring game. First, Cutler's favorite target Earl Bennett is out with an injury after taking a helmet to the chest last week. Second, the Bears offensive line was exposed last week by the Saints' complicated blitz scheme and losing Karimi at right tackle is going to kill the Bears and their ability to pass protect. Green Bay will follow the Saints blue print and bring constant pressure to fluster Cutler and force him away from his footwork and fundamentals. To counteract this, Lovie has ordered Martz to begin running the football more and using Forte as much as possible. This will lead to more carries and the Bears' desire to keep Rodgers and that dangerous offense off the field. On the other side, the Bears defense is solid with a front four highlighted by Peppers and an up and comer in Melton, a linebackers corps which is one of the best in the league and a weaker secondary compensated for by the cover 2 scheme. I think the Bears will be able to keep the Packers to 24 points or less and the Bears are not getting more than 21. Consequently, I see this one as being one of rare few unders so far this season and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

[815Sox]

Just FYI, Its "Carimi". I like this pick. I think the Bears D shows up big, but I also think that the offense continues its struggles. That offensive line might just be worse than last year, and it was the worst in the league last year. Also, the line has dropped to 45.5

[Love The Action]

Just FYI, Its "Carimi". I like this pick. I think the Bears D shows up big, but I also think that the offense continues its struggles. That offensive line might just be worse than last year, and it was the worst in the league last year. Also, the line has dropped to 45.5

I know...it was late at night and I was falling asleep as I typed
You can still get 46 if you have access to a book with similar lines to Legends, BoDog, Greek, BM...

Good luck!

[Love The Action]

LTA do you(or anyone else) know a site that has the stats on total probabilities? I played this at 42, but could have had under 41 at -130.

Just google "NFL totals key numbers"...there's a ton of stuff out there to sift through.

Also, if you go to the site "cleanuphitter", they provide the percentages of games that end in particular final scores.

However, I don't understand why you would want to play a total at -130 juice? That's not profitable. Did you mean +130?

[Love The Action]

NFL Week 3

Play #1

Broncos/Titans over (41) 2x (Locked)

I have this one at 49, so I have to jump on it for multiple units. This should be Chris Johnson's break out game against a banged up Denver defense. Moreover, he has now gotten caught up physically and football shape-wise after the holdout. With Hassleback playing so well and Britt emerging as a legitimate number one receiver threat, I think this total is way too low. On the other side, Orton will be forced to pass early and often because I expect Tennessee to jump out to the early lead. Because they held Brandon Lloyd out last week, the should be 100% and ready to go full speed. With Decker emerging out of need, I think we will see a more pass happy Broncos on Sunday. I think Orton is up for this challenge. I see Tennessee scoring at least four touchdowns on Sunday, which will require at least two touchdowns from the Broncos to cash this one. Although Tennessee's defense was impressive against Baltimore, the NFL fluctuates from week to week and you need to be able to anticipate how teams react after certain situations. I think Tennessee's defense ends up being a bit vulnerable through the air and the Broncos defense to just get shredded. I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Packers/Bears under (46) 1x (Locked)

I think this line will close around 45 or less. I have it at 43, but you may see an even lower scoring game. First, Cutler's favorite target Earl Bennett is out with an injury after taking a helmet to the chest last week. Second, the Bears offensive line was exposed last week by the Saints' complicated blitz scheme and losing Karimi at right tackle is going to kill the Bears and their ability to pass protect. Green Bay will follow the Saints blue print and bring constant pressure to fluster Cutler and force him away from his footwork and fundamentals. To counteract this, Lovie has ordered Martz to begin running the football more and using Forte as much as possible. This will lead to more carries and the Bears' desire to keep Rodgers and that dangerous offense off the field. On the other side, the Bears defense is solid with a front four highlighted by Peppers and an up and comer in Melton, a linebackers corps which is one of the best in the league and a weaker secondary compensated for by the cover 2 scheme. I think the Bears will be able to keep the Packers to 24 points or less and the Bears are not getting more than 21. Consequently, I see this one as being one of rare few unders so far this season and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cardinals (-3.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten this at -3 for -130, but screw that. I don't think this one is even close. All you have to do is look for playmakers on both sides of the ball and go position by position between the two teams. It's not even close on offense. The Cardinals have the better quarterback, wide receivers, running backs and line for that matter. I would also argue the Cardinals have the better defensive groups as well, although both teams defense has gotten shredded. Finally, I always like to look at coaching. In this game, you have Whisenhut versus Carroll. At this point, I have the Cardinals coaching staff the clear edge in that matchup with respect to coordination, play calling and clock management. I have the Cardinals as -5 on the road, so I'm not going to sweat the hook on this one. I'm rolling with the Cardinals for 1x. Good luck.

[Scully]

41 is a very important key number for nfl totals...perhaps the most important.
With that said, I would probably take this even at 43....I specifically ran the numbers on this one last night and have it at 49. Therefore, I think we have quite a bit of value here. This is my highest rated play of the season so far and wish I would have hit it harder than 2x. I didnt think it would go up so fast......

Action you said this play (Denver-Tennessee) is your highest rated play todate and yet it's only 2x. With that said you mentioned you wished you would have hit it harder.
So my question to you is why not hit it harder now? I mean it's still only 42.4 and you said you would probably play this game even at 43.
So I'm simply curious why you're not hitting it harder now?

[Love The Action]

Action you said this play (Denver-Tennessee) is your highest rated play todate and yet it's only 2x. With that said you mentioned you wished you would have hit it harder.
So my question to you is why not hit it harder now? I mean it's still only 42.4 and you said you would probably play this game even at 43.
So I'm simply curious why you're not hitting it harder now?

Because it's still early in the season and I play more conservatively until the advanced stats I use start to take shape. I got the opening number at 41 which is a very important, if not the most important, key total number in pro football. I already hit it for 2x at the open. While I wish I would have hit it for 3x at the open, I'm not about to add another unit now where I have a worse odds to win. The play is still +ev, but is less +ev than it was at 41...does that make sense?

Anyway, my units are not $100....my one unit plays fluctuate depending on my overall bankroll. My current BR is pretty high so I'm playing a full 2% of BR per unit which puts my current per unit bet at between $325 and $400 depending if I'm running hot or cold. I am more of flat bettor and operate on a 1x-5x scale. Therefore, a 2x play is a pretty big bet for me anyway. I'm not one of these guys betting 5x per play and then bragging about my huge winnings. I'm looking to win about 20x on the year, which will make this a solid NFL season. Anything over 20x is gravy.

Good luck this season!

[tonyp0387]

Play #3

Cardinals (-3.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten this at -3 for -130, but screw that. I don't think this one is even close. All you have to do is look for playmakers on both sides of the ball and go position by position between the two teams. It's not even close on offense. The Cardinals have the better quarterback, wide receivers, running backs and line for that matter. I would also argue the Cardinals have the better defensive groups as well, although both teams defense has gotten shredded. Finally, I always like to look at coaching. In this game, you have Whisenhut versus Carroll. At this point, I have the Cardinals coaching staff the clear edge in that matchup with respect to coordination, play calling and clock management. I have the Cardinals as -5 on the road, so I'm not going to sweat the hook on this one. I'm rolling with the Cardinals for 1x. Good luck.

Seahawks are gonna win divisional games at home this year. This is just like last year week 1 when everyone was on 49ers -3.5 and they lost by like 20 . This has sucker bet written all over it. +170 on the ML is a nice price for Seattle at home against a sh*t team,

[Love The Action]

NFL Week 3

Play #1

Broncos/Titans over (41) 2x (Locked)

I have this one at 49, so I have to jump on it for multiple units. This should be Chris Johnson's break out game against a banged up Denver defense. Moreover, he has now gotten caught up physically and football shape-wise after the holdout. With Hassleback playing so well and Britt emerging as a legitimate number one receiver threat, I think this total is way too low. On the other side, Orton will be forced to pass early and often because I expect Tennessee to jump out to the early lead. Because they held Brandon Lloyd out last week, the should be 100% and ready to go full speed. With Decker emerging out of need, I think we will see a more pass happy Broncos on Sunday. I think Orton is up for this challenge. I see Tennessee scoring at least four touchdowns on Sunday, which will require at least two touchdowns from the Broncos to cash this one. Although Tennessee's defense was impressive against Baltimore, the NFL fluctuates from week to week and you need to be able to anticipate how teams react after certain situations. I think Tennessee's defense ends up being a bit vulnerable through the air and the Broncos defense to just get shredded. I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Packers/Bears under (46) 1x (Locked)

I think this line will close around 45 or less. I have it at 43, but you may see an even lower scoring game. First, Cutler's favorite target Earl Bennett is out with an injury after taking a helmet to the chest last week. Second, the Bears offensive line was exposed last week by the Saints' complicated blitz scheme and losing Karimi at right tackle is going to kill the Bears and their ability to pass protect. Green Bay will follow the Saints blue print and bring constant pressure to fluster Cutler and force him away from his footwork and fundamentals. To counteract this, Lovie has ordered Martz to begin running the football more and using Forte as much as possible. This will lead to more carries and the Bears' desire to keep Rodgers and that dangerous offense off the field. On the other side, the Bears defense is solid with a front four highlighted by Peppers and an up and comer in Melton, a linebackers corps which is one of the best in the league and a weaker secondary compensated for by the cover 2 scheme. I think the Bears will be able to keep the Packers to 24 points or less and the Bears are not getting more than 21. Consequently, I see this one as being one of rare few unders so far this season and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cardinals (-3.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten this at -3 for -130, but screw that. I don't think this one is even close. All you have to do is look for playmakers on both sides of the ball and go position by position between the two teams. It's not even close on offense. The Cardinals have the better quarterback, wide receivers, running backs and line for that matter. I would also argue the Cardinals have the better defensive groups as well, although both teams defense has gotten shredded. Finally, I always like to look at coaching. In this game, you have Whisenhut versus Carroll. At this point, I have the Cardinals coaching staff the clear edge in that matchup with respect to coordination, play calling and clock management. I have the Cardinals as -5 on the road, so I'm not going to sweat the hook on this one. I'm rolling with the Cardinals for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Tampa Bay (-1) 1x (Locked)

This number is a steal. The Falcons beat the Bucs in some close games last year and I expect the Bucs to exact some revenge this week. I have the Bucs at -3, so I think we have some nice value here. Atlanta was a bit lucky this year and that luck did not carry over to this year. We all know Matty Ice is crucial to Atlanta's success and with his knee injury, you might just end up seeing Chris Redmond a little bit on Sunday. Tampa's young defense should pounce on that opportunity. However, I expect TB's offense to eat the Falcons up on Sunday. I use a lot of advanced efficiency stats in my NFL capping and TB's offense is way more efficient than the Falcons. With Tampa playing at home, rocking the revenge angle and outplaying Atl on offense, I see a win in TB's near future. I'm rolling with the Bucs for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Seahawks are gonna win divisional games at home this year. This is just like last year week 1 when everyone was on 49ers -3.5 and they lost by like 20 . This has sucker bet written all over it. +170 on the ML is a nice price for Seattle at home against a sh*t team,

It's always possible. Seattle is a tough place to play. However, if you just look at playmakers, who is going to score for Seattle outside of a special teams return?

Have they even made it in an opponents red zone yet this season

Seriously though, I have no confidence in Jackson. If you want to back them, go right ahead. I think Seattle is great fade material and will be lucky to win 4 games. The Cardinals have probably the three best offensive players and two best defensive players on either team. Seattle just doesn't have the horses or coaching to keep up.

Good luck with the ML bet on Seattle though

[815Sox]

I'm not one of these guys betting 5x per play and then bragging about my huge winnings. I'm looking to win about 20x on the year, which will make this a solid NFL season. Anything over 20x is gravy.

That is the smart way to do it, so many people blow their entire bankroll before the halfway point of the season (in any sport). Than they end up having nothing to play or chasing (which is I assume is where people with control issues get themselves into fiscal problems).

[Redscot]

What's cookin' Doc?

[homosayswhat]

BOL TO YA LTA...

I have watched, sadly, both BUCS games and they truly suck....them beating the Viks is no indication. Falcons flying high over their big win....this one will be a tough one...but I just think the Falcons have too many play makers to the Bucs squad....

not saying i would play either way...but just some thoughts....

Best of luck to ya
Enjoy your day
PEACE

[CyMark]

I hafta agree with Homo....Detroit was dominating TB in week 1 until they came out in the 2nd half and played pre-vent D for the last 2 quarters letting TB back into that game.


You'll notice Schwartz learned his lesson with KC and kept the pedal down for 3 quarters before easing off in the 4th.

[BigDan]

Play #4

Tampa Bay (-1) 1x (Locked)

This number is a steal. The Falcons beat the Bucs in some close games last year and I expect the Bucs to exact some revenge this week. I have the Bucs at -3, so I think we have some nice value here. Atlanta was a bit lucky this year and that luck did not carry over to this year. We all know Matty Ice is crucial to Atlanta's success and with his knee injury, you might just end up seeing Chris Redmond a little bit on Sunday. Tampa's young defense should pounce on that opportunity. However, I expect TB's offense to eat the Falcons up on Sunday. I use a lot of advanced efficiency stats in my NFL capping and TB's offense is way more efficient than the Falcons. With Tampa playing at home, rocking the revenge angle and outplaying Atl on offense, I see a win in TB's near future. I'm rolling with the Bucs for 1x. Good luck.

like this one a lot brother...ive read so much the last few days about atl being the superior team in this gm and i just dont see it that way, both gms last year came down to the wire with atl having to stop tb late drives to hold on to the win. A yr later i expect a more experienced tb team to figure out a way to win some of these close gms against the better teams.

BOl today my friend...

[Love The Action]

BOL TO YA LTA...

I have watched, sadly, both BUCS games and they truly suck....them beating the Viks is no indication. Falcons flying high over their big win....this one will be a tough one...but I just think the Falcons have too many play makers to the Bucs squad....

not saying i would play either way...but just some thoughts....

Best of luck to ya
Enjoy your day
PEACE

I hafta agree with Homo....Detroit was dominating TB in week 1 until they came out in the 2nd half and played pre-vent D for the last 2 quarters letting TB back into that game.


You'll notice Schwartz learned his lesson with KC and kept the pedal down for 3 quarters before easing off in the 4th.

Thanks for the input...but I think you guys are missing a few things. Last year, Atlanta got lucky to beat TB both games. Even though TB's defense is lacking this year, so it Atlanta's defense. When you add a gimpy Matty Ice to the equation with his bad knee, I think you have slight edge to a HUNGRY TB team at home. This is a huge game for TB and unlike baseball where motivational angles don't really come into play, in NFL motivation does help. Raheem Morris will have this team ready to roll today.

I actually like the over in this game as well and still might play that, but I LOVE TB in this spot. They are ready for a signature win like this. GL in whatever you choose.

[Love The Action]

like this one a lot brother...ive read so much the last few days about atl being the superior team in this gm and i just dont see it that way, both gms last year came down to the wire with atl having to stop tb late drives to hold on to the win. A yr later i expect a more experienced tb team to figure out a way to win some of these close gms against the better teams.

BOl today my friend...

Exactly

Good luck Danny boy!!!