Now these Miami fuks fumble at mid field after getting the score 16-10 and holding Houston on the ensuing drive. Man, I did not expect Miami to play so poor against such a bad road team...damn.
LTA's NFL PLays
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Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#106Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#107I can't believe I wasted my money on the fuking Dolphins and 49ers under.
This is the second week in a row that games I added on during Sunday cost me a winning day. For now on, I sticking to all plays that book during the week. If it's not booked by Saturday, I'm not fuking playing it. God damn I am really pissed about adding those late plays.Comment -
815SoxSBR MVP
- 09-13-10
- 1078
#108I played the Bengals, so that will cover the Dolphins, but I am surprised Miami looked that damn bad.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#110NFL Week 2 (9/18/11-9/19/11)
Play #1
KC/Detroit over (44.5) 1x (Locked)
Play #2
Oakland/Buffalo over (41.5) 1x (Locked)
Play #3
Seattle/Pittsburgh over (38.5) 1x (Locked)
Play #4
Baltimore/Tennessee over (37.5) 1x (Locked)
Play #5
6 point teaser
Dolphins (+9)/Colts (+8) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)
Play #6
Bears/Saints under (48) 1x (Locked)
Play #7
Cowboys/49ers under (41) 1x (Locked)
Play #8
Miami (+3)(-105) 1x (Locked)
Play #9
Eagles/Falcons over (49) 1x (Locked)
I had to take it once I could get 49 and shoot for a profitable day in nfl. Good luck.Comment -
RedscotSBR MVP
- 05-16-11
- 2571
#111. Take Miami out of the equation and it was a pretty big day, finished in the black though
Next week you take the books to the cleaners.
Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#112
I have my eyes on a total for week 3, that if I can get the current number when my local opens, may just be a 2x or 3x play.
Any leans for tonight? I tend to think the under hits tonight. not sure about the side.
Big week ahead!Last edited by Love The Action; 09-19-11, 08:46 AM.Comment -
RedscotSBR MVP
- 05-16-11
- 2571
#113I would lean under as well here, two conservative coaches. Giants should have Tuck back and that may remedy some their pass defense which got picked apart last week by none other than Rex Grossman. Also, Bradfordwill be wearing a special glove on his throwing hand supposedly which could hinder him. So many injuries on both sides makes this game a little hard to read honestly. Doesn't seem like weather or wind will be a factor. End of the day, based on the limited offensive options, and the coaches familiarity and defensive/ball control philosophies my only play on this game would be under. Gonna wait till this evening though for any injury updates.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#114Agreed...it's just tough taking unders these days until ther books start adjusting and adding on an extra fg to most totals. I think they have started this for week 3, but I still think I've spotted a few nice over opportunities.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#115NFL Week 3
Play #1
Broncos/Titans over (41) 2x (Locked)
I love this play. Lloyd will play... first multiple unit play of the year...writeup to come...good luck.Comment -
alamoSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-21-09
- 7131
#116Good job LTAComment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#11841 is a very important key number for nfl totals...perhaps the most important.
With that said, I would probably take this even at 43....I specifically ran the numbers on this one last night and have it at 49. Therefore, I think we have quite a bit of value here. This is my highest rated play of the season so far and wish I would have hit it harder than 2x. I didnt think it would go up so fast......Comment -
815SoxSBR MVP
- 09-13-10
- 1078
#119
41 is a very important key number for nfl totals...perhaps the most important.
With that said, I would probably take this even at 43....I specifically ran the numbers on this one last night and have it at 49. Therefore, I think we have quite a bit of value here. This is my highest rated play of the season so far and wish I would have hit it harder than 2x. I didnt think it would go up so fast......Comment -
RedscotSBR MVP
- 05-16-11
- 2571
#121Yup, I am at 42 here as well. I notice that Pinny is already juicing the over 42 to as well, definitely encourage playing it now if you are gonna be on it peeps. If LTA has it at 49 the books will almost surely keep moving in that direction.
Early Wong candidates for Week 3:
San Fran
Miami
Atlanta (depending on book)
Tennessee, New England and Seattle are also on the cusp.
Comment -
RedscotSBR MVP
- 05-16-11
- 2571
#122Gabbert getting the start for Jacksonville against Carolina.Comment -
odog11SBR MVP
- 02-14-11
- 3874
#12341 is a very important key number for nfl totals...perhaps the most important. With that said, I would probably take this even at 43....I specifically ran the numbers on this one last night and have it at 49. Therefore, I think we have quite a bit of value here. This is my highest rated play of the season so far and wish I would have hit it harder than 2x. I didnt think it would go up so fast......Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#124NFL Week 3
Play #1
Broncos/Titans over (41) 2x (Locked)
I have this one at 49, so I have to jump on it for multiple units. This should be Chris Johnson's break out game against a banged up Denver defense. Moreover, he has now gotten caught up physically and football shape-wise after the holdout. With Hassleback playing so well and Britt emerging as a legitimate number one receiver threat, I think this total is way too low. On the other side, Orton will be forced to pass early and often because I expect Tennessee to jump out to the early lead. Because they held Brandon Lloyd out last week, the should be 100% and ready to go full speed. With Decker emerging out of need, I think we will see a more pass happy Broncos on Sunday. I think Orton is up for this challenge. I see Tennessee scoring at least four touchdowns on Sunday, which will require at least two touchdowns from the Broncos to cash this one. Although Tennessee's defense was impressive against Baltimore, the NFL fluctuates from week to week and you need to be able to anticipate how teams react after certain situations. I think Tennessee's defense ends up being a bit vulnerable through the air and the Broncos defense to just get shredded. I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.
Packers/Bears under (46) 1x (Locked)
I think this line will close around 45 or less. I have it at 43, but you may see an even lower scoring game. First, Cutler's favorite target Earl Bennett is out with an injury after taking a helmet to the chest last week. Second, the Bears offensive line was exposed last week by the Saints' complicated blitz scheme and losing Karimi at right tackle is going to kill the Bears and their ability to pass protect. Green Bay will follow the Saints blue print and bring constant pressure to fluster Cutler and force him away from his footwork and fundamentals. To counteract this, Lovie has ordered Martz to begin running the football more and using Forte as much as possible. This will lead to more carries and the Bears' desire to keep Rodgers and that dangerous offense off the field. On the other side, the Bears defense is solid with a front four highlighted by Peppers and an up and comer in Melton, a linebackers corps which is one of the best in the league and a weaker secondary compensated for by the cover 2 scheme. I think the Bears will be able to keep the Packers to 24 points or less and the Bears are not getting more than 21. Consequently, I see this one as being one of rare few unders so far this season and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
815SoxSBR MVP
- 09-13-10
- 1078
#125Just FYI, Its "Carimi".I like this pick. I think the Bears D shows up big, but I also think that the offense continues its struggles. That offensive line might just be worse than last year, and it was the worst in the league last year. Also, the line has dropped to 45.5
Last edited by 815Sox; 09-22-11, 01:08 AM.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#126
You can still get 46 if you have access to a book with similar lines to Legends, BoDog, Greek, BM...
Good luck!Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#127
Also, if you go to the site "cleanuphitter", they provide the percentages of games that end in particular final scores.
However, I don't understand why you would want to play a total at -130 juice? That's not profitable. Did you mean +130?Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#128NFL Week 3
Play #1
Broncos/Titans over (41) 2x (Locked)
I have this one at 49, so I have to jump on it for multiple units. This should be Chris Johnson's break out game against a banged up Denver defense. Moreover, he has now gotten caught up physically and football shape-wise after the holdout. With Hassleback playing so well and Britt emerging as a legitimate number one receiver threat, I think this total is way too low. On the other side, Orton will be forced to pass early and often because I expect Tennessee to jump out to the early lead. Because they held Brandon Lloyd out last week, the should be 100% and ready to go full speed. With Decker emerging out of need, I think we will see a more pass happy Broncos on Sunday. I think Orton is up for this challenge. I see Tennessee scoring at least four touchdowns on Sunday, which will require at least two touchdowns from the Broncos to cash this one. Although Tennessee's defense was impressive against Baltimore, the NFL fluctuates from week to week and you need to be able to anticipate how teams react after certain situations. I think Tennessee's defense ends up being a bit vulnerable through the air and the Broncos defense to just get shredded. I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.
Play #2
Packers/Bears under (46) 1x (Locked)
I think this line will close around 45 or less. I have it at 43, but you may see an even lower scoring game. First, Cutler's favorite target Earl Bennett is out with an injury after taking a helmet to the chest last week. Second, the Bears offensive line was exposed last week by the Saints' complicated blitz scheme and losing Karimi at right tackle is going to kill the Bears and their ability to pass protect. Green Bay will follow the Saints blue print and bring constant pressure to fluster Cutler and force him away from his footwork and fundamentals. To counteract this, Lovie has ordered Martz to begin running the football more and using Forte as much as possible. This will lead to more carries and the Bears' desire to keep Rodgers and that dangerous offense off the field. On the other side, the Bears defense is solid with a front four highlighted by Peppers and an up and comer in Melton, a linebackers corps which is one of the best in the league and a weaker secondary compensated for by the cover 2 scheme. I think the Bears will be able to keep the Packers to 24 points or less and the Bears are not getting more than 21. Consequently, I see this one as being one of rare few unders so far this season and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.
Cardinals (-3.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)
I could have gotten this at -3 for -130, but screw that. I don't think this one is even close. All you have to do is look for playmakers on both sides of the ball and go position by position between the two teams. It's not even close on offense. The Cardinals have the better quarterback, wide receivers, running backs and line for that matter. I would also argue the Cardinals have the better defensive groups as well, although both teams defense has gotten shredded. Finally, I always like to look at coaching. In this game, you have Whisenhut versus Carroll. At this point, I have the Cardinals coaching staff the clear edge in that matchup with respect to coordination, play calling and clock management. I have the Cardinals as -5 on the road, so I'm not going to sweat the hook on this one. I'm rolling with the Cardinals for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
ScullySBR MVP
- 09-21-06
- 1276
#12941 is a very important key number for nfl totals...perhaps the most important.
With that said, I would probably take this even at 43....I specifically ran the numbers on this one last night and have it at 49. Therefore, I think we have quite a bit of value here. This is my highest rated play of the season so far and wish I would have hit it harder than 2x. I didnt think it would go up so fast......
So my question to you is why not hit it harder now? I mean it's still only 42.4 and you said you would probably play this game even at 43.
So I'm simply curious why you're not hitting it harder now?Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#130Action you said this play (Denver-Tennessee) is your highest rated play todate and yet it's only 2x. With that said you mentioned you wished you would have hit it harder.
So my question to you is why not hit it harder now? I mean it's still only 42.4 and you said you would probably play this game even at 43.
So I'm simply curious why you're not hitting it harder now?
Anyway, my units are not $100....my one unit plays fluctuate depending on my overall bankroll. My current BR is pretty high so I'm playing a full 2% of BR per unit which puts my current per unit bet at between $325 and $400 depending if I'm running hot or cold. I am more of flat bettor and operate on a 1x-5x scale. Therefore, a 2x play is a pretty big bet for me anyway. I'm not one of these guys betting 5x per play and then bragging about my huge winnings. I'm looking to win about 20x on the year, which will make this a solid NFL season. Anything over 20x is gravy.
Good luck this season!Comment -
tonyp0387SBR Wise Guy
- 01-11-10
- 617
#131Play #3
Cardinals (-3.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)
I could have gotten this at -3 for -130, but screw that. I don't think this one is even close. All you have to do is look for playmakers on both sides of the ball and go position by position between the two teams. It's not even close on offense. The Cardinals have the better quarterback, wide receivers, running backs and line for that matter. I would also argue the Cardinals have the better defensive groups as well, although both teams defense has gotten shredded. Finally, I always like to look at coaching. In this game, you have Whisenhut versus Carroll. At this point, I have the Cardinals coaching staff the clear edge in that matchup with respect to coordination, play calling and clock management. I have the Cardinals as -5 on the road, so I'm not going to sweat the hook on this one. I'm rolling with the Cardinals for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#132NFL Week 3
Play #1
Broncos/Titans over (41) 2x (Locked)
I have this one at 49, so I have to jump on it for multiple units. This should be Chris Johnson's break out game against a banged up Denver defense. Moreover, he has now gotten caught up physically and football shape-wise after the holdout. With Hassleback playing so well and Britt emerging as a legitimate number one receiver threat, I think this total is way too low. On the other side, Orton will be forced to pass early and often because I expect Tennessee to jump out to the early lead. Because they held Brandon Lloyd out last week, the should be 100% and ready to go full speed. With Decker emerging out of need, I think we will see a more pass happy Broncos on Sunday. I think Orton is up for this challenge. I see Tennessee scoring at least four touchdowns on Sunday, which will require at least two touchdowns from the Broncos to cash this one. Although Tennessee's defense was impressive against Baltimore, the NFL fluctuates from week to week and you need to be able to anticipate how teams react after certain situations. I think Tennessee's defense ends up being a bit vulnerable through the air and the Broncos defense to just get shredded. I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.
Play #2
Packers/Bears under (46) 1x (Locked)
I think this line will close around 45 or less. I have it at 43, but you may see an even lower scoring game. First, Cutler's favorite target Earl Bennett is out with an injury after taking a helmet to the chest last week. Second, the Bears offensive line was exposed last week by the Saints' complicated blitz scheme and losing Karimi at right tackle is going to kill the Bears and their ability to pass protect. Green Bay will follow the Saints blue print and bring constant pressure to fluster Cutler and force him away from his footwork and fundamentals. To counteract this, Lovie has ordered Martz to begin running the football more and using Forte as much as possible. This will lead to more carries and the Bears' desire to keep Rodgers and that dangerous offense off the field. On the other side, the Bears defense is solid with a front four highlighted by Peppers and an up and comer in Melton, a linebackers corps which is one of the best in the league and a weaker secondary compensated for by the cover 2 scheme. I think the Bears will be able to keep the Packers to 24 points or less and the Bears are not getting more than 21. Consequently, I see this one as being one of rare few unders so far this season and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3
Cardinals (-3.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)
I could have gotten this at -3 for -130, but screw that. I don't think this one is even close. All you have to do is look for playmakers on both sides of the ball and go position by position between the two teams. It's not even close on offense. The Cardinals have the better quarterback, wide receivers, running backs and line for that matter. I would also argue the Cardinals have the better defensive groups as well, although both teams defense has gotten shredded. Finally, I always like to look at coaching. In this game, you have Whisenhut versus Carroll. At this point, I have the Cardinals coaching staff the clear edge in that matchup with respect to coordination, play calling and clock management. I have the Cardinals as -5 on the road, so I'm not going to sweat the hook on this one. I'm rolling with the Cardinals for 1x. Good luck.
Tampa Bay (-1) 1x (Locked)
This number is a steal. The Falcons beat the Bucs in some close games last year and I expect the Bucs to exact some revenge this week. I have the Bucs at -3, so I think we have some nice value here. Atlanta was a bit lucky this year and that luck did not carry over to this year. We all know Matty Ice is crucial to Atlanta's success and with his knee injury, you might just end up seeing Chris Redmond a little bit on Sunday. Tampa's young defense should pounce on that opportunity. However, I expect TB's offense to eat the Falcons up on Sunday. I use a lot of advanced efficiency stats in my NFL capping and TB's offense is way more efficient than the Falcons. With Tampa playing at home, rocking the revenge angle and outplaying Atl on offense, I see a win in TB's near future. I'm rolling with the Bucs for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#133
Have they even made it in an opponents red zone yet this season
Seriously though, I have no confidence in Jackson. If you want to back them, go right ahead. I think Seattle is great fade material and will be lucky to win 4 games. The Cardinals have probably the three best offensive players and two best defensive players on either team. Seattle just doesn't have the horses or coaching to keep up.
Good luck with the ML bet on Seattle thoughComment -
815SoxSBR MVP
- 09-13-10
- 1078
#134That is the smart way to do it, so many people blow their entire bankroll before the halfway point of the season (in any sport). Than they end up having nothing to play or chasing (which is I assume is where people with control issues get themselves into fiscal problems).Comment -
RedscotSBR MVP
- 05-16-11
- 2571
#135What's cookin' Doc?
Comment -
homosayswhatRestricted User
- 06-11-11
- 1009
#136BOL TO YA LTA...
I have watched, sadly, both BUCS games and they truly suck....them beating the Viks is no indication. Falcons flying high over their big win....this one will be a tough one...but I just think the Falcons have too many play makers to the Bucs squad....
not saying i would play either way...but just some thoughts....
Best of luck to ya
Enjoy your day
PEACEComment -
CyMarkSBR Hustler
- 11-07-10
- 50
#137I hafta agree with Homo....Detroit was dominating TB in week 1 until they came out in the 2nd half and played pre-vent D for the last 2 quarters letting TB back into that game.
You'll notice Schwartz learned his lesson with KC and kept the pedal down for 3 quarters before easing off in the 4th.Comment -
BigDanRestricted User
- 04-28-11
- 5104
#138Play #4
Tampa Bay (-1) 1x (Locked)
This number is a steal. The Falcons beat the Bucs in some close games last year and I expect the Bucs to exact some revenge this week. I have the Bucs at -3, so I think we have some nice value here. Atlanta was a bit lucky this year and that luck did not carry over to this year. We all know Matty Ice is crucial to Atlanta's success and with his knee injury, you might just end up seeing Chris Redmond a little bit on Sunday. Tampa's young defense should pounce on that opportunity. However, I expect TB's offense to eat the Falcons up on Sunday. I use a lot of advanced efficiency stats in my NFL capping and TB's offense is way more efficient than the Falcons. With Tampa playing at home, rocking the revenge angle and outplaying Atl on offense, I see a win in TB's near future. I'm rolling with the Bucs for 1x. Good luck.
like this one a lot brother...ive read so much the last few days about atl being the superior team in this gm and i just dont see it that way, both gms last year came down to the wire with atl having to stop tb late drives to hold on to the win. A yr later i expect a more experienced tb team to figure out a way to win some of these close gms against the better teams.
BOl today my friend...Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#139BOL TO YA LTA...
I have watched, sadly, both BUCS games and they truly suck....them beating the Viks is no indication. Falcons flying high over their big win....this one will be a tough one...but I just think the Falcons have too many play makers to the Bucs squad....
not saying i would play either way...but just some thoughts....
Best of luck to ya
Enjoy your day
PEACE
I hafta agree with Homo....Detroit was dominating TB in week 1 until they came out in the 2nd half and played pre-vent D for the last 2 quarters letting TB back into that game.
You'll notice Schwartz learned his lesson with KC and kept the pedal down for 3 quarters before easing off in the 4th.
I actually like the over in this game as well and still might play that, but I LOVE TB in this spot. They are ready for a signature win like this. GL in whatever you choose.Comment -
Love The ActionSBR Posting Legend
- 11-08-10
- 10952
#140like this one a lot brother...ive read so much the last few days about atl being the superior team in this gm and i just dont see it that way, both gms last year came down to the wire with atl having to stop tb late drives to hold on to the win. A yr later i expect a more experienced tb team to figure out a way to win some of these close gms against the better teams.
BOl today my friend...
Good luck Danny boy!!!Comment
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