RLM System Plays

[crockje]

Hmm, probably going to stay away from it. But in my opinion my favorite bet is the under... next would be byu on the spread. Probably won't play it though. If anything I'll play that under, I know they both get a ton of possessions but I just don't see them both hitting 80 points against each other. Why... is your system telling you something cause if it is I wanna hear it!

I jumped on the under early in this one too.

[crockje]

I'm not sure exactly how to explain the technique because I literally wake up in the morning...plug in two teams to a few algorithms (of which I do not understand)...and examine the results....I really trust in the equation that my friends (who work for Microsoft and Apple) have developed..the parameters are the usual...FG %, home/away wins, strength of schedule, FT %, margin on the offensive and defensive boards, turnover margin, etc.... I do not mind posting these plays when I do get a chance in the mornings if you'd like...sorry if that didn't answer your question

Yeah I have a spreadsheet that I use for similar situations, although I'm sure it's not as in depth as yours is, I would be interested in hearing more about their formulas though. PM me the spreadsheet? haha have to try.

Do either of you have a spreadsheet that works with nba? The ncaa ones seem to work well when used

[Night-Tripper]

How do you find the "static" lines? Can you please give me a simple example? Greatly appreciated!

As previously answered... a static line is one with a heavy percentage of bets on one team, but the line isn't moving.

Also... as previously stated... wiseguy is doing a good job of posting the *official tracking plays* and I will usually post my plays and state which are official RLM and which are RLM based on the original concept.

Welcome aboard!

[Night-Tripper]

Hey RLM followers, and especially Night Tripper..I just want to apologize for losing my cool last night...thats not the way I am and just want to wish you guys all the luck, and winning times..

No apology needed dude... it's all good.

I needed something/someone to vent on after tossing away 7,800 last night and you filled the bill. For that... I thank you!

[Joe D. 416]

Much appreciated my friend.

[Night-Tripper]

I just need an example of what to do..

Okay... don't worry... you'll get the hang of it. But, if you're unsure of yourself... don't worry. wiseguy will post the revised version of RLM plays in this thread... exclusively. We're going to stay in this thread no matter the season/no matter the sport. You'll need to either check back, or check the freesports site to make sure that nothing has changed as far as line movement or betting percentages. Officially, we use:

• at least 63% on one side
• at least a .5 change in line in the wrong direction
• at least 3,000 bets on one team

I still use the original formula for some of my plays, although I will stray with percentages and betting action:

• 63% on one side
• 3,000 total bets
• static or line movement in wrong direction

Here is an example for the *RLM Official Tracking*:

76% of the action of freesports is on Duke/7,534 bets.
24% of the action on freesports is on N.C. State/2,413 bets
Line opened at 10.5 and has dropped to 10
Shoulda gone up with all of the action on Duke... but it's going down
The play is NC State

Here is an example of a RLM play that meets the original criteria that I use for myself. (May become an official play later.)

65% of the action is on North Texas/2,177 bets
35% of the action is on UL Monroe/1,189 bets
Line opened with North Texas -14.5 and has dropped to -13
Shoulda gone up, but is going the other way
The play is UL Monroe

Hope this helps

Just look for wiseguy's posts and you'll be fine.

I'm liable to get you in trouble

[Joe D. 416]

Hahahahah. You're the man night tripper. So much generosity..

[Night-Tripper]

Hahahahah. You're the man night tripper. So much generosity..

Nah... everyone here is more than willing to help. I'm an idealist and this thread fits in with my view of what SBR should be. We should be helping each other to trash the sports books... not knocking everyone else. We were all new to this less than two months ago... and now... look at us!

(Don't do as I do... do as I say!)

[Night-Tripper]

UPDATE 3:16PM

Games to Watch 2/15/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS & 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)


NCAAB

9:00pm 729 North Carolina State Wolfpack OPEN +10.5 NOW +10

9:00pm 733 West Virginia Mountaineers OPEN +3.5 NOW +3


O/U: NONE


2/15/12: 0-1

2/14/12: 2-1

2/13/12: 1-0

2/11/12: 0-1

2/10/12: 1-0

NCAAB O/U YTD: 3-2


NBA

10:35pm 706 Portland Trailblazers OPEN +2.5 NOW +2


O/U:


2/14/12: 2-0

2/10-2/12: 2-3

NBA O/U YTD: 6-3


2/15/12: 3-7

2/14/12: 2-1

2/13/12: 1-0

2/12/12: 5-3

WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22

YTD: 98-82-1 54%


NHL PK LINE: 5-3 -$20 AS A 100 BETTOR


NHL ML: 0-2

7:05pm 51 Chicago Blackhawks ML OPEN +150 NOW +140

You might wanna check on WVU... line is actually moving the right way.

[Joe D. 416]

Hahaha. I've been in the "service plays" section all this time. They're like sharks compared to this section.

[detroitigerz]

Do either of you have a spreadsheet that works with nba? The ncaa ones seem to work well when used

I don't have one for the NBA, although if you were able to find whatever stats you'd like to compare on a website that updates everyday I'd be more than happy to make one.

In other news, this NCAA spreadsheet IS helping me alot. Went 8-3 last night and one loss was missing an over by 1 point. STUPID WYOMING AIRFORCE

Colorado Avalanche +1.5 LOSS STUPID OPEN NET RULE IM DONE WITH HOCKEY
Montreal Canadians +1.5 WIN
Purdue +3 WIN
Richmond +14.5 WIN
Arkansas +7.5 LOSS STUPID SEC I CANT EVER WIN IN SEC
Iona -8.5 WIN
St. Joseph's -7 WIN
Wyoming OVER 112 LOSS STUPID TEAMS CANT COVER 112 BY ONE POINT AGGHHHH
Rutgers OVER 123.5 WIN
UNC -6 WIN
New Mexico -1 WIN

gunna stick with this method tonight... don't particularly love any of these bets and I know it's dumb to play games you're not in love with but WHATEVER

Tonight's Card:
Washington -13.5
BYU UNDER 159
West Virginia +3

BOL ALL!

[Night-Tripper]

Hahaha. I've been in the "service plays" section all this time. They're like sharks compared to this section.

You're in luck... you've hit the one thread that's going to cover every sport that can be RLM'd. Come September... this will probably be the only thread getting any action on the CBB site... because everyone else will be on the NFL, CFB and Basaballa boards.

[darkenergy]

I got whacked hard last night too.

I was gonna asked this question yesterday, but for some reason forgot to post.
I always have a thought that RML games often not work as good during weekdays as they are during weekends, especially Fridays - Sundays for most early games on board. I can never be able to keep track all the games due to nature of my work in order to confirm whether this theory is correct or not.
I also feel that early games that fit RLM often cashing at higher rates than later games on board (say those games out the west).
Since we are together on this, please pay attention on different angles, we might figured out something/sometime that shouldn't go too hard to control the damage.
Couple years ago I often use matchbook's juice as a guideline and cross-reference with RML theory (I wish I knew much detail about RLM as NT's system back then), and some if the game fit AND the juice is 1 cent only, dogs ruled. For example, say 5dimes, and Pinny has favor at -107, dog -103, other books set it at -110, all the sudden matchbook set favorite -104, and dog +103. Those games are goldmine.
Sorry for this lengthy, and best of luck to all tonight.

[Joe D. 416]

Awesome! What's your best play tonight of them all? I'm just flat betting because my bankroll is screwed post- Super Bowl.

[DirkDiggs]

So to give some perspective on how bad last night was for RLM. I had the day off yesterday so I compiled a spreadsheet of potential plays using a criteria of 60% and static line movement. For static lines the percentage had to be 70%. A couple of these ended up being no plays by game time, but my initial watch list went wait for it, wait for it....



16-41.


Wow, thank god the number of games made me cull the selection. That is just impossibly bad...

[Night-Tripper]

Awesome! What's your best play tonight of them all? I'm just flat betting because my bankroll is screwed post- Super Bowl.

Don't be mislead... flat betting is the way to go... especially until you have built a large bankroll... and even then, I wouldn't go berserk. What I love about this system is, that it's mostly dogs. What I do, is play basic flat bets and then take advantage of the + moneylines and toss 30% -> 50% of my flat bet on the moneyline. (But, that's just my method.) My base bet is 350 (+ juice) and I go up in steps to 450 and 550. A large play for me on a spread is 750, which I have already placed on UL Monroe this evening.

I'll be posting my plays as well as the amounts in just a bit.

Whatever you do, don't become impatient (as I did last night). The 7,800 dollar loss hurt, but it was spread out amoung 31 bets... last night was a bad, bad night. But, I was still only betting 2% on my largest play, which was 750, so I wasn't risking an unreasonable amount of my bankroll.

Sorry to hear that you took a hit on the Patriots. I guess I was one of the few idiots who was playing the Giants + points heavy and them really loading up once the Patriots got them down on the money line.

[Night-Tripper]

So to give some perspective on how bad last night was for RLM. I had the day off yesterday so I compiled a spreadsheet of potential plays using a criteria of 60% and static line movement. For static lines the percentage had to be 70%. A couple of these ended up being no plays by game time, but my initial watch list went wait for it, wait for it....



16-41.


Wow, thank god the number of games made me cull the selection. That is just impossibly bad...

Out of all of my losses yesterday, the Tulsa loss is the one that really pizzed me off. Hurricanes getting 6 and up 3 with milliseconds left and gave up a 3 to USM and ended up getting trashed in OT.

[Joe D. 416]

I appreciate your sympathy, however I'm a die-hard Giants fan and had them throughout the playoffs and Super Bowl. In regard to "Post-Super Bowl", I meant after the Super Bowl.. I'm still in ectasy because of that amazing run (possibly clouding my judgement) hahaha.

[wiseguy007]

UPDATE 5:57PM

Games to Watch 2/16/12

Based on this:

1. 3000 bets on one side with 63% & up. (3000 TOTAL BETS & 63% ON ONE SIDE IF YOU WANT)

2. Atleast .5pt Reverse Line Movement.

3. Using OPENING/CURRENT Lines from http://www.freesportsbet.com/consensus/NBA.html then comparing them to your book.

4. NCAAB SPREADS 8PTS & UNDER, NBA SPREADS 11PTS & UNDER (IF YOU WANT)


NCAAB

8:30pm 723 Portland Pilots open +6 now +5.5

9:00pm 729 North Carolina State Wolfpack OPEN +10.5 NOW +10


O/U: NONE


2/15/12: 0-1

2/14/12: 2-1

2/13/12: 1-0

2/11/12: 0-1

2/10/12: 1-0

NCAAB O/U YTD: 3-2


NBA

10:35pm 706 Portland Trailblazers OPEN +2.5 NOW +2


O/U:


2/14/12: 2-0

2/10-2/12: 2-3

NBA O/U YTD: 6-3


2/15/12: 3-7

2/14/12: 2-1

2/13/12: 1-0

2/12/12: 5-3

WEEK TOTAL: 2/6-2/11: 17-22

YTD: 98-82-1 54%


NHL PK LINE: 5-3 -$20 AS A 100 BETTOR

[Night-Tripper]

I got whacked hard last night too.

I was gonna asked this question yesterday, but for some reason forgot to post.
I always have a thought that RML games often not work as good during weekdays as they are during weekends, especially Fridays - Sundays for most early games on board. I can never be able to keep track all the games due to nature of my work in order to confirm whether this theory is correct or not.
I also feel that early games that fit RLM often cashing at higher rates than later games on board (say those games out the west).
Since we are together on this, please pay attention on different angles, we might figured out something/sometime that shouldn't go too hard to control the damage.
Couple years ago I often use matchbook's juice as a guideline and cross-reference with RML theory (I wish I knew much detail about RLM as NT's system back then), and some if the game fit AND the juice is 1 cent only, dogs ruled. For example, say 5dimes, and Pinny has favor at -107, dog -103, other books set it at -110, all the sudden matchbook set favorite -104, and dog +103. Those games are goldmine.
Sorry for this lengthy, and best of luck to all tonight.

Agreed... I love nothing better than to not only have a nice-sized dog as a RLM play, but to have the book offering me reduced juice to play it. On top of that, I'm always going to toss another 200 on the dog if I feel it has a good chance to win outright.

I don't believe the weekday/weekend theme has as much to do with RLM success as it is the number of games being offered. On slow nights (as is tonight), there aren't many options for bettors, so any change in a line will usually attract the opposite side. On big cards, there are so many options, that most bettors are looking to play their favorite teams (and we all know that the public LOVES to bet on televised games), which leaves the low-profile games to us.

Now... here's a thought... I wonder if someone with time could cross-check RLM success percentages on low profile games versus nationally televised games.

As far as the left coast goes, I'm about to leave them alone... too much strange shyt happening.

[Night-Tripper]

I appreciate your sympathy, however I'm a die-hard Giants fan and had them throughout the playoffs and Super Bowl. In regard to "Post-Super Bowl", I meant after the Super Bowl.. I'm still in ectasy because of that amazing run (possibly clouding my judgement) hahaha.

Cool... we'll see if we can help you make some money!

[Laissez Faire]

Hmm, probably going to stay away from it. But in my opinion my favorite bet is the under... next would be byu on the spread. Probably won't play it though. If anything I'll play that under, I know they both get a ton of possessions but I just don't see them both hitting 80 points against each other.

Why... is your system telling you something cause if it is I wanna hear it!

everyone and their mom and is telling me to take San Fran...I think i will stay away too...

my system gave me these results this morning..sorry i didn't share earlier, but it's been hectic day...

nc st +10
Arizona -2.5
washington -13.5
penn st -2.5
san diego -5.5
VA tech +10
Ark-LR -5.5
oregon st +4
NC St / Duke under 149


Wild -120
Flyers -1.5
Rangers -1.5

[Laissez Faire]

As far as the left coast goers, I'm about to leave them alone... too much strange shyt happening.

haha

[Joe D. 416]

Sounds good to me.. Seems like you guys like NC ST. A lot..

[Reno Gambler]

Plays tonight:
CBB:
NC ST. +11 to +10
Portland +6.5 to +5.5

NHL:
Chicago +150 to +135
Buffalo +150 to +135

[Night-Tripper]

UL Monroe +13/750
Nets&Pacers O194/450
Clippers&Trailblazers U188.5/450
Portland +5.5/450
Portland +200/200
NC State +10/450
NC State +450/200

Will probably be a few more later.

[darkenergy]

This is the list I came up with base on this thread criteria as of 6:11pm EST
RML plays
Nets
Portland
NCAA
UL Monroe Warhawks
Portland
NC State
Santa Clara

[R19]

Looking at Portland Pilots and Portland Trailblazers. Interesting.

[R19]

Couple years ago I often use matchbook's juice as a guideline and cross-reference with RML theory (I wish I knew much detail about RLM as NT's system back then), and some if the game fit AND the juice is 1 cent only, dogs ruled. For example, say 5dimes, and Pinny has favor at -107, dog -103, other books set it at -110, all the sudden matchbook set favorite -104, and dog +103. Those games are goldmine.

darkenergy, do you mind clarifying your example? Thanks.

[crockje]

I don't have one for the NBA, although if you were able to find whatever stats you'd like to compare on a website that updates everyday I'd be more than happy to make one. In other news, this NCAA spreadsheet IS helping me alot. Went 8-3 last night and one loss was missing an over by 1 point. STUPID WYOMING AIRFORCE Colorado Avalanche +1.5 LOSS STUPID OPEN NET RULE IM DONE WITH HOCKEY Montreal Canadians +1.5 WINPurdue +3 WINRichmond +14.5 WINArkansas +7.5 LOSS STUPID SEC I CANT EVER WIN IN SEC Iona -8.5 WINSt. Joseph's -7 WIN Wyoming OVER 112 LOSS STUPID TEAMS CANT COVER 112 BY ONE POINT AGGHHHHRutgers OVER 123.5 WINUNC -6 WIN New Mexico -1 WIN gunna stick with this method tonight... don't particularly love any of these bets and I know it's dumb to play games you're not in love with but WHATEVER Tonight's Card: Washington -13.5 BYU UNDER 159 West Virginia +3 BOL ALL!

Detroit check this website out let me know if this works appears to update everyday. http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/team...oring-category

[Joe D. 416]

What's the best single play of all those you guys think? My apoligies, as I am rook when it comes to this system/thread.

[R19]

Regarding hockey and late in the game, just like when a down team in basketball starts shooting 3's and fouling the wrong way. It can really turn the score upside down.

[Joe D. 416]

Of course I ended up playing a Round Robin.. UL Monroe, Portland, and NC ST.

[detroitigerz]

Awesome! What's your best play tonight of them all? I'm just flat betting because my bankroll is screwed post- Super Bowl.

If I had to pick one RLM tonight, gotta be between Portland and NC State. But I don't LOVE both of them so staying away... Probably would lean more toward Portland rather than NC State. GL dude

[detroitigerz]

A large play for me on a spread is 750, which I have already placed on UL Monroe this evening.

Eeek good luck with that one brother