Filmoz's NCAA BB 2011-2012

**panikpoker** · 12-09-11, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by blackout31

Am i reading this correctly?!? Iowa/iowa state total is at 146 right now?!?

correct one capper said the under is a lock but i see this game in the 80's

**blackout31** · 12-09-11, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by panikpoker

correct one capper said the under is a lock but i see this game in the 80's

I'm leaning to the under too.

I've been trying something with solid success. I add the Team A's point's avg with Team B's Points Against Avg and average that out. to find Team A's probable TT. I do that for Team B to find their probable TT, and use that info for the O/U.

Thoughts? It's been working for me, but games like rivalry games, where stats can sometimes be thrown out the window, might not work. I want a seasoned capper to critique.

**allidoiswin89** · 12-09-11, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by schism79

Ooops, sorry to call you an accountant, bro. Either way, you certainly have more math background than me, an English major...thanks for your thoughts. Here's to a profitable Friday & weekend!

If your looking for an accounttant than your talking to one

I wanted to go on wall street but wasn't man enough to take the risk. Looking back on iit, I think I made the right decision with seeing how bad this economy is. Poker has always kept my math skills sharp

**Filmoz** · 12-09-11, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by blackout31

I'm leaning to the under too.

I've been trying something with solid success. I add the Team A's point's avg with Team B's Points Against Avg and average that out. to find Team A's probable TT. I do that for Team B to find their probable TT, and use that info for the O/U.

Thoughts? It's been working for me, but games like rivalry games, where stats can sometimes be thrown out the window, might not work. I want a seasoned capper to critique.

Not to seem rude, but don't you think the books have figured that one out? Just averaging those two numbers is about the most basic thing you can possibly do. It's not likely to be successful long term.

**blackout31** · 12-09-11, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by Filmoz

Not to seem rude, but don't you think the books have figured that one out? Just averaging those two numbers is about the most basic thing you can possibly do. It's not likely to be successful long term.

I thought about that, which is why I use it as a tool, not the end-all be-all. Maybe I've been lucky. Honestly, I've just been testing out the concept with little 1u bets here and there. Moz, your opinion matters, so thanks for the input.

**Filmoz** · 12-09-11, 02:26 PM

You should use those numbers as a starting point. Then, on a piece of paper, write down pros and cons for why a given team's number is likely to go under or over their average for that particular game. I.e. does Team A typically do well when Player 1 does well, and is Player 1 more or less likely to do well in this particular game based on who he is matched up against from the Team B? Stuff like that.

**rb3b3** · 12-09-11, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by Filmoz

You should use those numbers as a starting point. Then, on a piece of paper, write down pros and cons for why a given team's number is likely to go under or over their average for that particular game. I.e. does Team A typically do well when Player 1 does well, and is Player 1 more or less likely to do well in this particular game based on who he is matched up against from the Team B? Stuff like that.

lovin it!!!!!!!

**allidoiswin89** · 12-09-11, 02:32 PM

Originally posted by panikpoker

correct one capper said the under is a lock but i see this game in the 80's

Yea RB all led us to that over under caper. He's got a good winning %. Not jaw droping though.when you find a capper who has 500+ plays with w winning % then he is good. Plus true capers don't really vary their units by up to 30x

That's like saying when I had 7 in a row I was betting 30 units and would be up 210 units..just not realistic for long term success

The guy does seem intelligent though and I will follow him and make plays i agree with. Like I said earlier, I am much better at o/unders s for college so I am interest.ed to see this guy going forward. Word of advice to any that follow, tread lightly on his 20x+ games

BOL

**blackout31** · 12-09-11, 02:35 PM

Originally posted by Filmoz

You should use those numbers as a starting point. Then, on a piece of paper, write down pros and cons for why a given team's number is likely to go under or over their average for that particular game. I.e. does Team A typically do well when Player 1 does well, and is Player 1 more or less likely to do well in this particular game based on who he is matched up against from the Team B? Stuff like that.

Love the advice, Moz. Big-time advice.

**MatthewPV** · 12-09-11, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by Filmoz

Wyoming +5 -105 3x

I'm all over this one with you!

**Filmoz** · 12-09-11, 04:48 PM

ODU +2.5 -105 5x

**Filmoz** · 12-09-11, 04:51 PM

Today's card:

Richmond +4 -109 3x
Wyoming +5 -105 3x
ODU +2.5 -105 5x

**TrajaD** · 12-09-11, 05:32 PM

To have maximum karma on our side. Everybody here must donate money to a homeless person.

**blackout31** · 12-09-11, 05:55 PM

Originally posted by TrajaD

To have maximum karma on our side. Everybody here must donate money to a homeless person.

I believe all gamblers should do some form of charity for two reasons;
1.) It's a good thing to do always.
2.) It never hurts to balance karma out.

Also, I was interested in looking at Florida and am not making a bet, simply because 26.5 points is a lot of chalk to eat, but Rider is really bad.

**aunty jack** · 12-09-11, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by TrajaD

To have maximum karma on our side. Everybody here must donate money to a homeless person.

There's a fair chance that some of them are living in cardboard boxes because of gambling, but I take your point.

God Bless us all...

**Dexter** · 12-09-11, 11:37 PM

Originally posted by allidoiswin89

Plus true capers don't really vary their units by up to 30x

you love those emoticons

yeah, i guess billy walters isn't a "true" capper.

whats your unit range - 1 to 1.7x?

**allidoiswin89** · 12-09-11, 11:45 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

you love those emoticons

yeah, i guess billy walters isn't a "true" capper.

whats your unit range - 1 to 1.7x?

I never said cappers don't vary there plays but just not up to a 30x variance... Seriously man, you are getting straight up annoying now. If you want to talk, maybe learn a thing or two, message me. I'm not going to clutter up this thread anymore with your nonsense posts. Good Cappers have winning percentages on picks with roughly the same units. If its all about units, I'm just gonna play a 8 game chase, I bet you I never lose 8 in a row, therefore I will always make units lol. It is the stupidest logic ever.....I want to reiterate, some cappers do vary there plays....but 30x is just laughable - maybe those "cappers" are playing $5/unit

**shocktopme** · 12-09-11, 11:54 PM

.

Film doin hard work and getting questioned???

**Dexter** · 12-09-11, 11:58 PM

nm....

**Ab34** · 12-09-11, 11:59 PM

Dex i think gambling is my dark passenger lol

**cohbull** · 12-10-11, 12:05 AM

Originally posted by Ab34

Dex i think gambling is my dark passenger lol

well played sir..

**Filmoz** · 12-10-11, 12:42 AM

Today's results:

Richmond +4 -109 3x L
Wyoming +5 -105 3x W
ODU +2.5 -105 5x L

1-2-0, -5.52x

Yikes. Rough night tonight guys. We'll get em tomorrow.

**Filmoz** · 12-10-11, 12:43 AM

YTD 124-97-4, +62.22x

**Filmoz** · 12-10-11, 12:53 AM

12/10/11

Kentucky -5.5 -110 5x

That's a YoungBuck/Filmoz consensus play, by the way. Gambling gods be good

**YOUNGBUCK** · 12-10-11, 12:53 AM

Jus released my first 10x play Moz

**YOUNGBUCK** · 12-10-11, 12:54 AM

Wow u posted that at same time as me haha lets get it fam!

**blackeyeshamus** · 12-10-11, 01:40 AM

word is bond.
slimedog millionaire right here...
kentucky 4x good luck!

**mp5070** · 12-10-11, 07:59 AM

**SimonSayz** · 12-10-11, 08:29 AM

It is time that the Bookie gets deatroyed today....for sone reason, ge has taken advantage of me for the past 3 days....lets kill it today.

I like Creighton which has jumped from pk to -2 overnight...

**Ca$hfloW** · 12-10-11, 08:56 AM

Let's have a big day today filmoz, I'm already on Kentucky with you. Let's see if we can find some more winners... I am siding with creighton

**Ca$hfloW** · 12-10-11, 08:56 AM

And any thoughts on Toledo -5?

**Jhyun** · 12-10-11, 09:18 AM

Hey, been tailing this thread for a while now and thanks for the picks. I've a quick question that may be a bit dumb so I apologize in advance.

I'm one of those kids that got screwed by the internet poker debacle so I'm already aware of things like BR management. From my understanding, in sports betting, a unit is suppose to be about 2% of your bankroll right? Once in a while I see people posting 10x plays and I'm wondering if it actually means to bet 20% of your BR... Just seems a bit ridiculous to me.

**Ch Br** · 12-10-11, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by Jhyun

Hey, been tailing this thread for a while now and thanks for the picks. I've a quick question that may be a bit dumb so I apologize in advance.

I'm one of those kids that got screwed by the internet poker debacle so I'm already aware of things like BR management. From my understanding, in sports betting, a unit is suppose to be about 2% of your bankroll right? Once in a while I see people posting 10x plays and I'm wondering if it actually means to bet 20% of your BR... Just seems a bit ridiculous to me.

1st rule: DONT EVER FUCKIN APOLOGIZE for asking questions that advance your understanding and knowledge. Lol ok, just kidding...... less aggressive now.... Seriously so many ppl on here should have asked that ???? a billion times but are too proud or assume they know it all e.g.>>>>> ["hey i dont even need to look at this game (NE -21.5 last week) SURE np over the colts"]... LOL LOL LOL

For real though, Dont let ppl dictate your BRM... do what YOU feel is comfortable and profitable for VALUE.....

instead of blindly tailing ppls projections, instead use the 5x, 10x, 30x, 40 dime, 100dime, 8* indicators as strength of selection indicators FOR THAT CAPPER ONLY....... Then, when youve establish confidence in a cappers winning % or what have you, [with an increased bankroll, one would hope] you can adjust your units with or against particular cappers [against Lang (fading) aahahahah is usually a winner...]

but yea anywhere from 2-5% of ur bankroll is the benchmark or rule of thumb for those looking to make money in the longhaul... IMO thats the only way to win, over the long haul, be it month, season, year....cuz the bookies, the juice, and the GODDAMN hook are difficult ENEMIES all tryin to catch me lucky charms...... sooooooo tilting or betting the farm on a pick, or even betting a high % of games, such as yesterday on a limited GARBAGE card is a surefire way to lose...Pick your spots.... its like any sort of betting proposition: the less time you have your money out on the table, exposed to the house, the more you lessen your chances ass raped like in a federal pound me in the ass prison

i realize ill get some flack from that last comment [betting a lot on yesterdays GARBAGE card] but a lot of us are degenerate action CHASERS here..... if were were'nt Degenerates why else be on here... esp at 3-6:47am

**cough** **cough**I mean were all here to gain knowledge and beat the book intelligently

hope that helps

BOL all!!

**Filmoz** · 12-10-11, 11:45 AM

Creighton -2.5 -103 4x

**Filmoz** · 12-10-11, 11:48 AM

Duke TT U81 -110 5x