EP36's Dance Card

[EaglesPhan36]

Big Dance: 14-12 [+0.86]
Little Dances: 3-3 [-0.10]
Beaver Ball: 5-1 [+4.35]

Love that live in-play option. In the black because of it. Thanks 5Dimes!

[EaglesPhan36]

Some wild ass line moves for the Women's games today already. Wow -2.5 pt swings on totals in less than an hour. Gonna let these sort out for awhile before deciding if I want any part of that today. It's obvious the books are not great at setting some of these and they knee jerk their reactions on early money.

[The_Kid]

Some wild ass line moves for the Women's games today already. Wow -2.5 pt swings on totals in less than an hour. Gonna let these sort out for awhile before deciding if I want any part of that today. It's obvious the books are not great at setting some of these and they knee jerk their reactions on early money.

Which games were you eyeing? I'm still thinking about laying big chalk with Tennessee and Stanford. I saw the Zags are favorites over UCLA, although they are at home. That should be an interesting matchup. Great offense vs stingy defense.

[EaglesPhan36]

The two totals I was looking for went totally ape shit once they got posted. DePaul-Penn State I was looking for an over at anything around 140. Started at 142.5 and is now at 147. Gonzaga-UCLA under at 142.5, down to 137. Just ridiculous. Probably stick to sides if anything as a result. Not sure about the big spreads tonight. Probably more comfortable with Tennessee's chances. Marquette almost blew their game against Texas. Tennessee beat Texas by 15 on the road in the regular season. Gonna keep an eye out for another hour or two and then go ahead and book something. Got one early and one late game that I think I like, but we'll see where the lines move. Still cannot believe the movement on those totals.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAAW: GEORGIA TECH +6 [-110]
Georgia Tech poses a unique threat to the home-standing higher seed Ohio State tonight. The Yellow Jackets are one of the few teams that plays a full court press from the beginning to the end of the game. Given the short turn-around from winning in the 1st round two days ago and not having seen this sort of press, the Buckeyes could struggle to adjust. This will feature a team in Georgia Tech that averages 22 turnovers forced vs. Ohio State who ranked 17th in assists per game. The assist-turnover ratio for Ohio State will likely yield everything tonight. If it's 1:1 or worse, Georgia Tech has done their job and should have Buckeyes fans biting their nails. Ohio State has not been immune from flopping early in tournaments either, going out big last year in this round.

[EaglesPhan36]

NIT: NEW MEXICO-ALABAMA UNDER 129.5 [-105]
Alabama's defense at home has been borderline absurd. They allow just 51 ppg on 34% shooting. The Tide have only allowed 60 points or more in just five of 17 games. New Mexico did not exactly light it up in their first NIT game at just 40% from the field, but ended with 67 points thanks to 17 FTs and eight three pointers. Alabama crushed Coastal Carolina 68-44, but have not scored more than 70 in their last nine games. The Lobos defense has been adequate on the road, allowing 43% shooting but 69 ppg. This will be their 2nd game without G Dariese Gary who was their leading scorer. On the road against a stiff defense, that should spell trouble and less points. Four of Bama's last five at home have gone UNDERs.

[EaglesPhan36]

Lady Vols on choke alert, up 3 with 5:30 left. That's why I say again, those big spreads are tough to fathom as being great for the most part.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAAW: NOTRE DAME-TEMPLE OVER 125.5 [-110]
Both teams do play good defense, but both teams also have solid scorers/shooters. Temple tested itself against some of the toughest teams in the country and acquitted itself well with 61 against a lethal UCLA defense & 64 against a gnarly Duke defense. Notre Dame has been solid all year, averaging 77 ppg. They put up points on EVERYONE, including UConn & Baylor. They were a little sluggish against Utah in the opener, perhaps some of that was getting acclimated to the altitude in game conditions in a 67-54 win. Temple rarely gets held below 60 & if Temple holds Notre Dame under 60 - they be the only team not named UConn to do it this season [57].

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAAW: GEORGIA TECH +6 [-110]

Lost 67-60. Had the lead at the half, but really did not defend well other than causing a boatload of turnovers which kept them in the game. They could not defend Ohio State in the half court.

[EaglesPhan36]

Big Dance: 14-12 [+0.86]
Little Dances: 3-4 [-1.15]
Beaver Ball: 6-2 [+4.25]

Split the Beaver Ball. Figures there's a bunch of stupid fouling in the NM-Bama game that add to the total. Ah well. More Beaver on tap tomorrow. Know one for sure I like, will look more.

[The_Kid]

Lady Vols on choke alert, up 3 with 5:30 left. That's why I say again, those big spreads are tough to fathom as being great for the most part.

Yeah, I missed out on this one. I will probably stay away from big spreads the rest of the way. Will look into it more closely now that the field has been narrowed down a bit.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAAW: OKLAHOMA-MIAMI OVER 140.5 [-110]
Locking this one up early because this total should rise several points. Miami likes to pressure and cause turnovers which should lead to more easy buckets. OU turned it over 22 times in round one against James Madison. Miami averages 25 forced turnovers per game. OU has scored and given up points against the better teams it has played all season and I expect more of the same today.

[EaglesPhan36]

And there goes the ridiculous line movement on these women's games again. OU-Miami total now 146.5, rose big as expected. Lots of the spread have shifted a few points as well. Will keep monitoring for other plays as there are another one or two games I am thinking about depending on what these crazy fukking lines do.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAAW: TEXAS A&M -13 [-110]
This one is hard to look past as the #2 seed Lady Aggies draw Rutgers. Rutgers scored a fine win in their 1st round over Louisiana Tech, while A&M destroyed McNeese State. This is a rematch from during the season where the Aggies absolutely stymied Rutgers to the tune of 79-50. This is a quality program in A&M that has beaten some good teams by wide margins this season. Rutgers has had a tough time when they've faced their best competition as they lost to NCAA tournament teams from the Big East in UConn by 24 & 19, Notre Dame by 22 and out of conference against Tennessee by 36. They are not an incapable squad as they beat West Virginia & Marquette, two solid tourney teams. However this match-up looks tough. On a neutral floor, Rutgers shot just 27% against A&M in that regular season meeting and really would have been beaten by more if not for getting to the FT line. A&M shot 47% and their all-everything post Danielle Adams led the way with 24 points as three Aggies scored 17 or more. Rutgers certainly might be a better team now than they were back in December, but so might A&M.

[Rick22]

Thanks for the nice write-ups EP. I know less about women's than men's - if that's possible.

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't know a ton about women's either - but if you read enough and crunch some stats, you can try to decipher things. What I think is great about this time of year is that as I said yesterday the books are at a disadvantage here because they don't set many women's lines during the year so they put out a lot of lazy shit here solely based on past results and perceived "home court" edges.

[EaglesPhan36]

Big Dance: 14-12 [+0.86]
Little Dances: 3-4 [-1.15]
Beaver Ball: 8-2 [+6.25]

Beaver Ball!

[EaglesPhan36]

NIT: CHARLESTON +8.5 [-104]
Charleston is on the road to take on a tough Wichita State squad. This match-up pits two solid offenses against two solid defenses. The offenses do their things differently with Charleston relying on their superstar Andrew Goudelock and a transition attack to score. Wichita State is an efficient half-court club with six players who score seven or more points per game. Defensively, the Shockers allow just 41% shooting and 61 ppg. Charleston allows almost 69 ppg on 43% shooting, but has been solid lately - allowing just 39% shooting in their last five. Charleston is road tested with close losses to North Carolina and Maryland + a win over Tennessee. Both teams have remained efficient in the NIT on offense and have played good defense for the most part. If Goudelock gets loose, Charleston stays in this one and might even steal it outright.

[EaglesPhan36]

NIT: NORTHWESTERN'S MICHAEL THOMPSON OVER 16 POINTS [-115]
**TWO UNIT MAKE ME PLAU CUZ HOMEY DON'T BREAK**

Thompson has been superb over the last month. He has scored at least 16 in nine of his last eleven. No need for explanation, dude gonna go off.

[EaglesPhan36]

Big Dance: 14-12 [+0.86]
Little Dances: 5-4 [+1.85]
Beaver Ball: 8-2 [+6.25]

Thompson with a big three at the end to hit the double sized bet!

[EaglesPhan36]

WEST REGIONAL

UCONN-SAN DIEGO STATE 1st HALF OVER 59.5 [-110]
Defense is being hyped as a big thing for this match-up and well it should be, you have two defenses ranked in the Top 20 as far as the least amount of points given up per possession. SD state ranks 2nd at 0.82 per possession which is tremendous. still, this number is beatable with the quality of offensive talent on the floor. The Aztecs & Temple played to a 67 point first half in a game where the Owls looked to slow the tempo. UConn although not playing a particularly up tempo game can engage more in that style and I think both teams would actually prefer a bit more transition game to get out of having to grind it out against tough opposing man-to-man defense in the half court. Kemba Walker will be a key either as a scorer or facilitator to jump start UConn from the opening tip. He must have his fingerprints on this game if the Huskies are to win. Kawhi Leonard needs to be a force for the Aztects as well. His combination of size and athletic ability will be tough for any of the Huskies to guard. He needs to be active. DJ Gay, Tapley and company have shown they can score. They will be huge X-factors today with the interior expected to resemble a war zone with Oriakhi up against the athletic White & Thomas.


DERRICK WILLIAMS OVER 18.5 POINTS [-115]
Williams has scored at least 19 points in half of Arizona's 36 games this season and I think anyone who believes Arizona can beat Duke - knows he'll need to score 20+ to give them a shot tonight. He should be a mismatch for Duke's bigs. Not that Duke doesn't have quality bigs, but who do you put on Williams? Singler has the length perhaps, but will get beat down in the post. Putting either of the Plumlees on Williams seems like the best bet, but that will open Williams to use his face up game to get to the rack and beat Duke with his quickness. It should also allow plenty of free throw opportunities if he is aggressive, but not so much that he gets caught into taking some offensive fouls against a Duke club drilled on drawing them. I expect Coach K will use a combination of people on Williams as a result. Williams is a unique foe for most teams facing him for the first time and I think that will work out for plenty of scoring opps for him today. Considering his game against Texas was his worst in the last few weeks and he still managed 17 - Looking for improvement from that game which should yield a shot to win this prop and see Williams with 20 or better.

**FYI this is available at an even better deal at the SBR book if so inclined at 18 points**

[EaglesPhan36]

Big Dance: 15-12 [+1.86]
Little Dances: 5-4 [+1.85]
Beaver Ball: 8-2 [+6.25]

Let's go Derrick Williams!

[EaglesPhan36]

Big Dance: 16-12 [+2.86]
Little Dances: 5-4 [+1.85]
Beaver Ball: 8-2 [+6.25]

[EaglesPhan36]

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL

MARKIEFF MORRIS TOTAL REBOUNDS OVER 8.5 [+110]
While Marcus gets the publicity due to his more consistent scoring, Markieff Morris might be the real glue to the interior of this Kansas team. Markieff has tallied at least eight rebounds in 21 of KU's 36 games this season. He has only failed eleven times to secure at least one block. Since the postseason began, Markieff has tallied 42 rebounds in five games. He has eight or better in four straight and is coming off a solid 12 rebound game vs. Illinois. He should really have a shot to clean up against a Richmond team that doesn't rebound that well. The Spiders are -2.2 in rebounding margin, while KU is +8.6. The Jayhawks average almost 37 boards per game, while Richmond's opponents average close to 33. Faried dominated the paint for Morehead from a rebounding standpoint against Richmond with 13 rebounds. Vanderbilt had three different players snatch at least eight boards vs. Richmond. A similar rebounding squad stats-wise to KU, Old Dominion dominated Richmond in the regular season 40-27 on the boards with their man guy snagging 12 boards and two others with seven each. Minutes figure to be a key for this prop, but Markieff has gotten rebounds in bulk in short minutes. He averages 24 minutes per game, but has played at least 28 minutes in both NCAA games. Kenpom.com has Markieff ranked as the 26th best defensive rebounder in D1 according to the stats. The Jayhawks must clean the glass tonight to control Richmond from getting second shots, especially kick outs for open threes - so I expect Markieff to be the Windex Man tonight.

**This is one you can snag even better at the SBR book at an O/U of 8**

VCU +4 [-105]
Double digit darlings VCU & Florida State meet tonight. Two very different, but effective defenses. VCU uses their quickness and a trapping pressure style to cause turnovers, while FSU is an in-your-face hard noses defensive stalwart. FSU was a total surprise not for their defense, but for their offense against Notre Dame. The Seminoles hit 9/19 from deep, uncharacteristic of their 33% for the season. Defensively, the Irish shot just 19/62 from the floor. In VCU, they face a threat as the Rams come in red hot from beyond the arc at 41% over their last five. FSU holds opponents to just 30% and that will be a key battle tonight. Key for VCU will be their pressure because they need turnovers to get easier chances and to speed the tempo. Jamie Skeen will be the man charged again with providing some inside presence for VCU to give the shooters some room to operate against this stingy D. Rebounding + tempo. VCU must keep the rebounding margin close and they must continue to throw waves of players into the mix to press FSU into turnovers. If they do both, they should have this game close and a chance to win against an inconsistent FSU offense.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks refs, gotta figure out how to get 9 rebounds in a half now. Nice ticky tack BS foul calls on my man Markieff.

[EaglesPhan36]

Big Dance: 17-13 [+2.86]
Little Dances: 5-4 [+1.85]
Beaver Ball: 8-2 [+6.25]

Will be playing all the Elite 8 games this weekend.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAAW: OHIO STATE-TENNESSEE OVER 143 [-110]
Two teams here who love the transition game, especially the Lady Vols. Tennessee has size, speed and length that is tough for most teams to match. Their PG Meighan Simmons will be a key here. If she is out and running and making correct decisions, the Vols usually put up a lot of points. Ohio State for their part have said too that they won't be afraid to play transition basketball because that is one of their strengths. So much so that they forced Georgia Tech to back off of their full court press some in the last round because the Buckeyes were beating it for easier opportunities. In the half court, Tennessee should have a chance for plenty of 2nd chance opportunities with a decided size advantage and that hopefully means more easy buckets. The Lady Vols have scored 77 or better in nine straight and had 19 games of 80+ points this season. Ohio State has scored at least 70 in 22 of 33 games this season.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAAW: OKLAHOMA +8.5 [-110]
Oklahoma meets Notre Dame in this one. These two teams have grown accustomed to playing one another. They met twice last year with OU bouncing ND from the tournament in overtime after the Irish had defeated OU 81-71 in the regular season. This OU team got a low seed to get into the tournament that probably does not accurately reflect their talent. They have shown that talent so far in wins against James Madison & Miami. This is also a team that played Baylor to a one point loss & generally has the talent to stick with most teams when all cylinders are firing. They are younger than last year's squad that knocked ND off, while the Irish boast the experience and slight edge defensively. OU needs to rebound well and they must limit ND's penetration into the lane as the Irish have a real knack for getting to the FT line. Consistency determines if OU has a shot in the end.

[EaglesPhan36]

Big Dance: 17-13 [+2.86]
Little Dances: 5-4 [+1.85]
Beaver Ball: 9-2 [+7.25]

Bangin' the beave. Over hits.

[EaglesPhan36]

NCAAW: GONZAGA -2 [-110]
Gonzaga was severely underseeded to enter this tournament as a #11. They have shown well all season against the toughest teams they have played, losing by just six to Stanford & nine to Notre Dame. They continue their tremendous scoring against one of the toughest defenses in D1 by beating UCLA 89-75. They shot 55% from the floor which is unbelievable. They are playing in Spokane, not on their home court, but in their home city and will have a big crowd. Louisville is a quality team that showed great poise in beating Xavier, but it's a team they knew from a previous meeting. Gonzaga is unlike any team in D1 as they will push, push, push the tempo. PG Courtney Vandersloot is the real deal. This is basically a home game and I think the better team regardless of setting is Gonzaga. This line is already on the move as Gonzaga started as a +1 dog and is now -2. Expect that line to rise a little more even.

[EaglesPhan36]

ELITE 8

FLORIDA-BUTLER OVER 133 [-105]
Both teams stand about even for the year defensively, allowing 42% shooting and around 64 ppg. Lost in the hoopla of how well Butler did against Wisconsin defensively was the simple fact that the Badgers played like crap & missed a ton of open shots. Let's remember that Pitt shot 57% from the field against the Bulldogs & Florida is streaking right now, shooting 47% over their last five while putting up 73 ppg. They have scored 70 or more in each of their NCAA tournament games and in eight of their last ten. Butler has not been a great shooting team most of the year at 43%, so I think the onus is on them to find ways to score tonight. Getting to the FT line would probably be a good start. OVERs have been solid away from home for Florida with 12 of 18 hitting in that direction and nine of their last ten overall going OVERs.

ARIZONA +140
Arizona played almost perfect against Duke as they blew the doors off the Blue Devils with their speed and plenty of Derrick Williams. I still think Arizona's defense is a bit soft, but their offense I think may actually serve as their best defense in that when they execute and score - it frustrates opponents by how easy it can look. PG Momo Jones had a big game against Duke and figures to be key here as he's likely to draw Kemba Walker. Jones certainly has the quickness to stay with him. Derrick Williams again will be a mismatch for the opposition. Oraikhi certainly has the size in the post to go against Williams, but he's no match for his quickness if Williams goes to his face-up game. If they put a less bulky player on him like Roscoe Smith, Williams will back him down and maul him to the basket. The key could be how Williams responds to double teams because UConn may resort to that. If they do, it could be deadly as Arizona's shooters have been rock solid. The Cats shoot 40% from deep for the season and they've been even better in the tournament at 22/48. They have multiple threats from deep including Williams who might be their best three point shooter. Rebounding figures big here as Arizona has stood up well in that category in the postseason. UConn rebounds well, so the Cats will need to keep the margin close. UConn did not want to engage in an up tempo battle with San Diego State, but they found that their best offense was in transition. I think if the Huskies play half court basketball, they'll play into Arizona's favor as UConn really seemed to bog down in the half court albeit against one of the better man-2-man teams in San Diego State.

[EaglesPhan36]

It's fun to watch these women's lines move. Cannot believe they started Gonzaga at +1, now -4.5. I don't even know how they come up with some of these.

[vietphatty]

Followed u on okla and the over =(

[EaglesPhan36]

OU didn't show up today. I almost was going to go under instead of OU, but really expected them to show better today. Oh well, party on.

[The_Kid]

NCAAW: GONZAGA -2 [-110]

Like the Zags today too. Will tail you on this one, EP