Astro's NCAA Plays

idontlikerocks · 11-29-07, 02:12 AM

OK we're watching now , you have a good start keep it going!

astro61200 · 11-29-07, 02:20 AM

As always, these are the plays that I will most likely make *'d plays, line movement and such will determine how high for most:
Temple -5.5
Gonzaga PK
Alabama State +12
Oregon -2.5
Air Force -6.5
Oklahoma +6

May also use these as plays, depends on line movement and how I feel about them after I look a little more in-depth into them, not just glancing over:
Santa Clara -8
Charlotte +5.5
George Mason -7

Actual card with completed revisions and final plays will be up, probably, around 5 pm EST

astro61200 · 11-29-07, 05:51 PM

1* UNC Charlotte +5
The 49ers are a solid team, they have played some better competition this year and held their own, if not won... a win over Appalachian State at home, a win over Illinois-Chicago, only a 5 point loss to Georgia Tech and a 2 point loss at Monmouth, an underrated school... Wake Forest, on the other hand, has played no one of consequence... a not so great Iowa squad is their best win, only by 9... I expect this game to be close and Charlotte to pull out the win, getting the 5 points is just a bonus... not to mention that 74% of the public is on Wake, and the line has dropped from -5.5 to -4.5.. the books want you to take Wake Forest

1* South Alabama +12
1* Air Force -7
1* Oregon -2.5

Not too many games tonight, and only 1*'s, so nothing really jumps out at me...

Good luck to everyone today!

astro61200 · 11-30-07, 01:23 AM

3-1 on the day, not bad considering I didnt really LOVE any of the games out there... Friday not too many games either, Saturday, however, should be a great day

2-0 Monday, +3 Units
4-0 Tuesday, +5 Units
6-1-1 Wednesday, +7.9 Units
3-1 Thursday, +1.9 Units

YTD ATS: 15-2-1, +17.80 Units

Originally posted by astro61200

1* UNC Charlotte +5
The 49ers are a solid team, they have played some better competition this year and held their own, if not won... a win over Appalachian State at home, a win over Illinois-Chicago, only a 5 point loss to Georgia Tech and a 2 point loss at Monmouth, an underrated school... Wake Forest, on the other hand, has played no one of consequence... a not so great Iowa squad is their best win, only by 9... I expect this game to be close and Charlotte to pull out the win, getting the 5 points is just a bonus... not to mention that 74% of the public is on Wake, and the line has dropped from -5.5 to -4.5.. the books want you to take Wake Forest

1* South Alabama +12
1* Air Force -7
1* Oregon -2.5

Not too many games tonight, and only 1*'s, so nothing really jumps out at me...

Good luck to everyone today!

idontlikerocks · 11-30-07, 02:49 AM

missed your plays today as i went to a friends house who had the nfl game. looking forward to the weekend seeing what you come up with

astro61200 · 11-30-07, 02:50 AM

Most likely to be a play:
Marquette -18.5
Duquense/CS Northridge Over (No line yet)
Delware +2
Drake -26.5

Depending on line movement and such, may be a play:
Tennessee -26.5
Oregon State -3.5
Duquense -7
UL Monroe +7.5
Montana -7.5
Montana State -23

Final card should be up around 5 or 6 pm

astro61200 · 11-30-07, 04:28 PM

1* Pepperdine -5
1* Oregon State -4
1* Delaware +3

Still dont see a total for the Duquense/CS Northridge game... will probably be my top play if the total is anything below 190, check back before tip, 6 pm est, for my final card with the total on there

EaglesPhan36 · 11-30-07, 04:39 PM

That total was around 175 at Bookmaker bro and on the rise.

astro61200 · 11-30-07, 04:44 PM

3* Duquense/CS Northridge Over 177
Here you have to teams that play almost the exact same style of offense... high pressure, high risk, high reward defense... they attempt to force turnovers while also having a lot themselves, and they refuse to let the shot clock run down... at all, just looking at the team statistics for each you'll see they are remarkably the same... the Dukes average 95.2 points a game, shoot 49.4% and score an average of 1.43 points per shot, the Matardors average 90.8 points a game, 49.4% from the field and average 1.42 points per shot... the turnovers per game are within 1.3 of each other (18.8/17.5) the steals per game within 1.2 of each other (10/8.8)... this game is going to end up being extremly high scoring, and could very well go to overtime... I could see a final score of 100-95 or something to that extent... even a 93-88 game could happen, and that would still be over the total... should be an entertaining game to watch, too bad it probably isnt on too many television sets tonight

astro61200 · 11-30-07, 04:53 PM

Also, while this isnt CBB, I love UCF tonight vs Tulsa... UCF playing for the conference title, at home where they murder teams, only giving up 8 is a gift... the Golden Knights are going to ravage the Golden Hurricane tonight in Orlando, blowout city

Louisvillekid1 · 11-30-07, 05:19 PM

GL and congrats on the great start

The Seer · 11-30-07, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by astro61200

Also, while this isnt CBB, I love UCF tonight vs Tulsa... UCF playing for the conference title, at home where they murder teams, only giving up 8 is a gift... the Golden Knights are going to ravage the Golden Hurricane tonight in Orlando, blowout city

That game is tommorrow at noon.

kdmfox · 11-30-07, 05:55 PM

Congrats on the start astro ... Went with the under 179 on the Duq/CSN game ... That's a boatload of points.

astro61200 · 11-30-07, 08:02 PM

What a disgrace Northridge is, they shot well below their season average and jacked up dumb shot after dumb shot over and over again at the end, add that in with Duquense missing their final 5 FTs, when they were shooting around 85% before that for the game, and this game makes me sick

Should have been around 195 or 200 total, instead it goes under... sickening to make the right call and have these bums screw it up

astro61200 · 12-01-07, 04:05 AM

Yikes, took a beating going 0-4 today and losing 6.6 units, but still up for the week and the loses weren't really horrible calls... Duquesne game didnt go over because of 5 missed FTs at the end and a number of missed open shots, Delaware was leading with 1:40 left then blows it and loses by 5, Pepperdine wins but only by 2, Oregon State loses in OT... so very easily could have been a 2-2 day, if not even a 4-0 day with a few breaks... I love the slate for Saturday, a lot of good teams at home not giving up nearly enough points

2-0 Monday, +3 Units
4-0 Tuesday, +5 Units
6-1-1 Wednesday, +7.9 Units
3-1 Thursday, +1.9 Units
0-4 Friday, -6.6 Units

YTD ATS: 15-6-1, +11.20 Units

6* North Carolina -7 at Kentucky
Is this a joke? This line made me laugh, then it made me think of all that money I'm going to be making off of it... UNC only giving up 7 I find very hard to believe... granted they have not played like they are capable of yet, but Kentucky is putrid... this team is rancid, they are missing their best scorer, and most likely best player, Jodie Meeks, they have struggled with awful teams, such as beating Stony Brook by only 10, trailing to them 10 minutes into the game, allowing them to get within 6 with 6 minutes left, and only scoring 62 points on them... North Carolina will probably be missing Lawson for the second straight game, but they still dispatched of a much better Ohio State team by 11 in Columbus... I really do not understand this line, and if I was not around Kentucky basketball so much I'd maybe stay away from it because it just seems so fishy... but I know UK basketball and this team is not good, hell even a UK fan thought the spread would be around 15-20 points... they are taking too much into Kentucky's blowout wins against extreme low division 1 teams... Tar Heels win this one in a romp, by 15+ points

3* Northern Iowa -12.5
2* Pittsburgh -21.5
2* Saint Mary's -9
2* BYU -12
1* Saint Louis -15.5
1* UNC Greensboro +3.5

May add some more games as the day goes, but if I dont add any games before 1 pm EST I wont be adding any until atleast 5 or 6 pm EST, I will be at the Louisville/Miami OH game

Jpound21 · 12-01-07, 04:11 AM

im with ya on the pitt and unc game astro... goodluck!

astro61200 · 12-01-07, 04:56 AM

Originally posted by Jpound21

im with ya on the pitt and unc game astro... goodluck!

Thanks, you too... should take a look at the UNI game, they play at home, where they usually dominate anyway, against a very bad Loyola team that got light up in a 31 point defeat at Purdue, then stomped on at home by Bradley to the tune of a 17 point L, this game could end up being a 30 point UNI W

I'm parlaying the UNI and UNC games with UCF and Troy in football...

Might also do a 5 teamer with those 4 and Saint Mary's, or a 6 with them, Saint Mary's and Pittsburgh or BYU

I love the games today, have a feeling its going to be a great day

astro61200 · 12-01-07, 05:36 PM

Added: 2* Cal State Northridge -18.5 - The Matadors arent as bad as they looked yesterday, and now they play the worst team in D-I in NC Central, outside of the game the Eagles somehow won, they are 1-8 and their closest defeat is by 17 points against Wake Forest, outside of that game they are losing by around 35 points a game

astro61200 · 12-03-07, 02:07 AM

Will be working a lot this week so will try, when I can, to get games up and cap... but might not be too often this week

idontlikerocks · 12-03-07, 02:16 AM

what are you doing when you are working?

astro61200 · 12-04-07, 12:03 AM

6* North Carolina -7 at Kentucky - W
3* Northern Iowa -12.5 - L
2* Cal State Northridge -18.5 - W
2* Pittsburgh -21.5 - W
2* Saint Mary's -9 - W
2* BYU -12 - W
1* Saint Louis -15.5 - L
1* UNC Greensboro +3.5 - L

2-0 Monday, +3 Units
4-0 Tuesday, +5 Units
6-1-1 Wednesday, +7.9 Units
3-1 Thursday, +1.9 Units
0-4 Friday, -6.6 Units
5-3 Saturday, +8.5 Units

YTD ATS: 20-9-1, +19.70 Units

astro61200 · 12-04-07, 03:52 AM

Not sure if I'll have time to cap it fully enough to make it a *'d play, but Rhode Island -2.5 is probably a good bet, the Rams are very good at home and they should be too much for Providence

astro61200 · 12-05-07, 01:16 AM

Since I dont have time to cap right now, might have some night games up for Wednesday around 7 or 8 pm tomorrow night, I decided to start tracking the wrong line movements, when a team gets a majority of the bets coming in on them, and their line drops

There were 7 cases of this on Tuesday, and the results may seem shocking to some:

Notre Dame - W (66% on K-State, went from ND -5.5 to -6)
Northern Illinois - W (80% on AFA, went from AFA -5.5 to -4.5)
New Mexico State - W (59% on New Mexico, went from NMSU -1.5 to -2.5)
Cal Riverside - W (68% on SDSU, went from SDSU -23.5 to -20)
UNC Greensboro - L (61% on VT, went from VT -9.5 to -8)
Yale - W (93% on Fairfield, went from Fairfield -2.5 to -2)
St. Peter's - W (59% on Seton Hall, went from SH -16.5 to -15.5)

Record for day: 6-1
Since I started tracking on 12/4: 6-1

They want you to take those games when the lines drop even tho the money is coming in on those teams anyway, and Tuesday they made a killing

idontlikerocks · 12-05-07, 01:54 AM

i don't find this surprising. the line moves when big money is put on one side. the big money plays are winning.

astro61200 · 12-05-07, 01:58 AM

Originally posted by idontlikerocks

i don't find this surprising. the line moves when big money is put on one side. the big money plays are winning.

The percentages are based on the amount of money going on each team, not the people betting on them... for instance if you have a team with a 65% spread trend (which is listed above) then for every $100 bet, $65 is on that team...

So for the Yale game:

Yale - W (93% on Fairfield, went from Fairfield -2.5 to -2)

Fairfield was getting $93 for every $100 bet, and the line dropped from -2.5 to -2... Yale covered and the books made a killing

The game closed with Fairfield getting 93% of the spread money, and 87% of the moneyline money

idontlikerocks · 12-05-07, 02:34 AM

if the line moves from fairfield - 2 1/2 to fairfield -2 then that means somebody has bet big on the underdog. the line moves to attract money on the opposite play. if this happens and somebody is telling you that all the money is going on the favorite then that person or service is lying

astro61200 · 12-05-07, 02:52 AM

Originally posted by idontlikerocks

if the line moves from fairfield - 2 1/2 to fairfield -2 then that means somebody has bet big on the underdog. the line moves to attract money on the opposite play. if this happens and somebody is telling you that all the money is going on the favorite then that person or service is lying

Haha, right...

Anyway, might have a few plays up for tomorrow night's late games, tomorrow night... also will continue to track the incorrect line movement games (as I explained how it works earlier), the link used to see the line movements is: http://www.sports.com/vegaslines/lines_nfl.html

Betting Trends: "Side" is the percentage of money bet on the point spread of the game. "Money" is the amount bet on the money line of the game. "Total" is percentage on the over/under; the upper number being the percentage on the over and the lower, the under. All percentages are calculated in real time.

So if you see a game where the money is in favor of a team, yet the line is moving the wrong way, despite what idontlikerocks thinks about how it works, you may want to take the other side... I know I've used this in the past to adjust my plays, if it fell under the system I'd move it up and bet more, if it didnt I'd get rid of it or lower it

alexda[] · 12-05-07, 07:55 PM

its sharp vs square. but the sharps arent always sharp

astro61200 · 12-05-07, 09:24 PM

Didnt have time to cap, but am taking 2 ILM System plays with San Jose State and Utah... SJSU opened at +9 at San Diego, since then 83% of the money has gone on SD, 96% on the SD ML, and the line has dropped to -7.5 and -7

Utah opened at -8, 74% of the money going on Utah State and the line has moved to -9

astro61200 · 12-06-07, 12:13 AM

Quickly scanning over the games tomorrow, some early leans:

Villanova -9.5
Providence -3.5
Valparaiso +1.5
Morehead State +17

Will update card tomorrow before the games

astro61200 · 12-07-07, 05:14 AM

Again, sorry that I wont be posting much on my card for a week or so... of the games I posted that I was thinking about making plays, but didnt have the time to cap them, they went 2-2... with the 2 Big East teams losing, Valpo winning by 5 in a close game, and Morehead covering easily, losing by 6 as a 17 point dog

Of the games on the slate tomorrow, my leans would be toward:

Siena -2.5
Loyola MD -3.5
Montana -11.5
UC Davis +3

I'd probably make Loyola my top play right now, wait for UC Davis' line to move up some since everyone will be all over Oregon State... watch Montana and take them if the line dropped to around -10 or better and probably wait with Siena to see if the public was taking them or not, since Fairfield kept it close with G'town the public might take them heavily

Will be gone all day so wont have anymore time to cap these games, so no *'d plays again today

Hopefully I can get some plays for Saturday, we'll see... hate to miss the best day of the week CBB wise so will try

All I'll probably play today will be a parlay of Ben Burn's NHL pick and Golden State minus the points vs the Miami Heat

louisvillekid · 12-08-07, 03:26 AM

Originally posted by astro61200

The percentages are based on the amount of money going on each team, not the people betting on them... for instance if you have a team with a 65% spread trend (which is listed above) then for every $100 bet, $65 is on that team...

So for the Yale game:

Fairfield was getting $93 for every $100 bet, and the line dropped from -2.5 to -2... Yale covered and the books made a killing

The game closed with Fairfield getting 93% of the spread money, and 87% of the moneyline money

where can you find a service that has that info? what i mean is, the percentage of money going one way or the other that you quoted. every service i know can only give you the percentage of bets going one way or the other, NOT the money going each way.

astro61200 · 12-11-07, 01:46 AM

Games that will, most likely, be a play:
Central Florida -12.5
Valparasio -11.5

Other possible games that could be plays:
Oregon -32

The Seer · 12-11-07, 04:07 PM

Astro, what's up with this thread? You should delete that post that runs all the way across the screen so people don't have to scroll over to read everything.