***** College Totals *****

[rgrant2214]

Good luck today

[doubledime]

The game doesn't start until 9

You're correct. I calculated the time zone incorrectly and maybe too much champagne last night.

[rgrant2214]

lol it's all good

[doubledime]

Yeah 137.5 at will hill

This will show you what several books have plus you can go back and look at the line movement history.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/totals/

[rgrant2214]

Thanks

[HeeluvaGuy]

Happy New Year DD and friends!!!

Wishing everyone a terrific 2017!

[fataliz]

hi doubledime, just letting you know your work is appreciated

[doubledime]

Happy New Year DD and friends!!!

Wishing everyone a terrific 2017!

Thanks buddy I appreciate all your hard work. Happy New Year!!

[doubledime]

hi doubledime, just letting you know your work is appreciated

Thank you sir

[cmatth1326]

Took the 1st half under MD game. I Think you're on to something. Taking the full game (which I did btw), you run the risk of OT or a foul fest on close games.

[doubledime]

Took the 1st half under MD game. I Think you're on to something. Taking the full game (which I did btw), you run the risk of OT or a foul fest on close games.

It was a bit of a nail biter. Also at the end of the first half, the team that's ahead tends to hold the ball for the "last shot" plus the other team has no reason to foul.

[HeeluvaGuy]

If I may, I'd like to point out that there's nothing inherently riskier about playing a full game under versus an over. Things like late-game fouling are part of the numbers posted by the books, and are one reason you see first half lines 5-10 points lower than implied second half lines.

Interstingly, over 53% of all games so far have gone under the closing total. In other words, if you had blindly played $100 on every under this year, you would be up over $1900. I would love to compare that to how first half totals have done, but I don't have that data readily available.

[doubledime]

If I may, I'd like to point out that there's nothing inherently riskier about playing a full game under versus an over. Things like late-game fouling are part of the numbers posted by the books, and are one reason you see first half lines 5-10 points lower than implied second half lines.

Interstingly, over 53% of all games so far have gone under the closing total. In other words, if you had blindly played $100 on every under this year, you would be up over $1900. I would love to compare that to how first half totals have done, but I don't have that data readily available.

Some good info. It would be great if there was a program out there that could go back and calculate first half unders vs full game unders. I do not know of any. The 53% number you talk about, is it the opening or closing line? These lines change so fast, and sometimes so drastically, it's hard to get a handle on it.

[doubledime]

I won't be posting this each time, but since IL St/Loy went over in the first half the 2nd half play would be under 73 in the second half if you choose to play these. Now if the game goes under 140 we win the second half play.

Good luck DD

[HeeluvaGuy]

Some good info. It would be great if there was a program out there that could go back and calculate first half unders vs full game unders. I do not know of any. The 53% number you talk about, is it the opening or closing line? These lines change so fast, and sometimes so drastically, it's hard to get a handle on it.

I assume they are closing numbers, but I'm not positive. That info is from covers.com.

[doubledime]

Interesting game......

We were not involved in the game, but Louisiana Tech/Southern Miss scored 43 points in the first half and 91 (over twice as much) in the second half, but still stayed under.

[Flea Hotel]

That's what I do DD. I leave so many "just misses" off SBR (I personally play them at .5 unit) because I figure people would rather tail fewer winners than more volume but more losers. I hit NHL totals at 71% in December playing about 3 a night but I only posted 1 or so a day here, the best of the best of the best. If it were up to me, I'd want your best picks. I have countless variables and metrics that I run my plays through and then the ones that clear that go through a second system which essentially gives me a projected final score, and from that and the line value, I decide what to play and what to post. Just my two.

That's my quandary, when I use other filters, at least so far this season, it produces less plays but leaves winners on the table.

[Flea Hotel]

EDIT: Disregard, I misread your post, I thought you were implying unders were riskier. Indeed, I mis-understood and wasn't even really on topic in essence. I'm having a helluvaday.

You don't think late game fouling and OT is offset by slowed down pressure in blowouts or close-games. Moreover, in NCAAB, especially the crappier D1 schools, free throws aren't necessarily a hindrance to an under. I can't count how many games I've won having the under with 5 points left to kill my play with 2mins left just to watch high school level free throw shooting.

Not sure where I got the data but to settle a similar argument from last year, I found data showing historically, over/unders typically even out almost exactly at 50/50, juice factored in. If unders were riskier inherently, people would bet overs blind. Sportsbooks are quite good at making playing an over equally as risky as an under.

If I may, I'd like to point out that there's nothing inherently riskier about playing a full game under versus an over. Things like late-game fouling are part of the numbers posted by the books, and are one reason you see first half lines 5-10 points lower than implied second half lines.

Interstingly, over 53% of all games so far have gone under the closing total. In other words, if you had blindly played $100 on every under this year, you would be up over $1900. I would love to compare that to how first half totals have done, but I don't have that data readily available.

[cooperman]

Interstingly, over 53% of all games so far have gone under the closing total. In other words, if you had blindly played $100 on every under this year, you would be up over $1900. I would love to compare that to how first half totals have done, but I don't have that data readily available.

1st half under have hit at 53.07% (using SBR odds closing lines) Nov saw under hit at a really good clip. In december the books adjusted and now we are slipping back towards 50%

[doubledime]

Good morning,

Regular Plays: 3-5

First Half Unders: 2-3

Second Half Unders When First Half Goes Over: 2-0-1

YTD:

Regular Plays: 35-25

First Half Unders: 15-9

Second Half Unders: 5-1 (combining record from Saturday since these are for tracking only)

Good luck

[knicksrulez]

Hey DD, what are the official plays, I'm kinda lost, you still playing the first half unders?

The Second half unders are an official play?

Thanks

[HeeluvaGuy]

1st half under have hit at 53.07% (using SBR odds closing lines) Nov saw under hit at a really good clip. In december the books adjusted and now we are slipping back towards 50%

Thanks for that. Not surprised that there's a strong correlation in the first half and game percentages.
I would love to know the percentage of games that went under in the first half and stayed under for the game. But that would take a ton of work.

[doubledime]

Hey DD, what are the official plays, I'm kinda lost, you still playing the first half unders?

The Second half unders are an official play?

Thanks

I realize there are a lot of moving parts right now. After I do some more work, I will post a better explanation a littler later today.

DD

[DU46]

DD - it seems like when looking at all of your plays this year, the 1H under of your full game under picks is hitting at the highest winning %...maybe worth just playing those?

[Flea Hotel]

Not to be a dick but I mentioned this in post 220 almost a week ago. In fact, I'm the one who started this whole playing the first half under thing. People might want to go back and read a few pages of the thread before posting stuff that's already been addressed. When I get an email notificiation from this thread, I'm hoping it's DD's winners, not stuff we've been going on since, well, my post #220 on December 27th.

DD - it seems like when looking at all of your plays this year, the 1H under of your full game under picks is hitting at the highest winning %...maybe worth just playing those?

[DU46]

I've read the entire thread, my post was more about the 1H's are doing well, which you pointed out, maybe he should focus on those plays only.

[matt711]

Whats wrong with a 35-25 record

[doubledime]

Okay, let's clear the air....

In Post 217 I said the following:

Good evening,

We lost our under today but..............

Once again, (it's happened at least 3 times this season) the first 1/2 was well under the total but the game goes over because of crazy scoring in the second half. Starting tomorrow I will be tracking a side play of betting the first half under any time I am posting the game to go under. I know full well 3 games is not a good sample size, but that's why I'll track it for all to see.

Good luck
DD

After that IK mentioned he was playing the first half and then Flea said he was also and making money from playing the under first half when I posted an under play. I then went back to see how the the first half unders we doing since I start posting, and they were doing quite well. What made me feel stronger about first half under plays was the input from these other posters, and for that I thank them. We all have the same motive here, or at least I hope so, and that is to make some $$$$$.

DD

[matt711]

Great thread!..........and a better capper.......Ty DD

[DU46]

Whats wrong with a 35-25 record

Nothing at all, just asking the question, higher winning % and lower volume seems like a good formula.

[thekoreanmang]

The below thread uses this 1H/2H under mini-chase approach to great effect for the current CFB bowl season. A few people have applied the method to NFL, NBA and NCAAB although it seems like it works best on CFB bowls as far as I can tell.

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=102367555&page=15

[doubledime]

Points Awarded:

matt711 gave doubledime 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

Always appreciate the points Thanks Matt

[doubledime]

Good afternoon,

Monday's Plays:

529 WK/FL Int under 133
549 Iona/FF over 157
551 Tenn Chat/NC Grn under 137.5
561 Sam/WC under 133

Everyone, of course can play these as they wish. I will be playing the first half under on my under plays, the full game and if the first half goes over on my under plays, I will play the second half under. All three are presently showing a profit. Since this way leads to making more plays I will be reducing my unit size. I have enough stress in my life.

Good luck

[doubledime]

The below thread uses this 1H/2H under mini-chase approach to great effect for the current CFB bowl season. A few people have applied the method to NFL, NBA and NCAAB although it seems like it works best on CFB bowls as far as I can tell.

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/P...367555&page=15

As you mentioned this is link is for football. I am not a big fan of a chase system but from what I read, it's been profitable most years. When I play the second half to go under I am not doubling my unit size. If you decide to do this let me know your results.

[thekoreanmang]

I'll be looking to apply a mini-chase to losing 1H unders. Hopefully, I'll be by my computer/phone to do so. I have a 1-year old making my life a living heaven so sometimes I can't. Haha.