John Morrison 2012-13 NBA Thread

[Wallco99]

LOL I know I will get bashed for this because it has not been fully back tested, but I am trying to think out side the box as usual and came up with a reverse theory. Instead of 1-3-5 what about 5-3-1. Since over half of the plays are won on the A level, I figure we should be betting to win majority of the money on A. I know A has by far the lower winning percentage, but this would pull in the most profits. Would have to adjust the numbers some, but this is what it looks like this year based on -110 odds (not buying points).

5-3-1
5.5 to win 5
9.35 To win 8.5
17.44 To win 15.85
Total risk 32.29

Profit this season: 26units. *this is after 1 series loss as well of 32 units. Had Utah covered their C wager we would be up 60 units!

Maybe we been thinking of this system wrong... shouldn't base it on the fact A-bets have a bad rep, but where most of the winning games come from. Maybe we are trying to avoid variance too much instead of maximizing profits. Also with a higher risk on the series, I would always advocate 200 units bankroll.

I am starting this method tomorrow.

Don't like it. You still need 7 wins on (A) or 11 wins on (B) to make up for any loss. I like our 7/5 method much better, great profit and only 3-4 wins to make up for a loss. Don't want to be sweating out too many 17 unit (C) bets for 1 unit profit, when I can sweat out 13 unit (C) bets for 5 units profit. I am not giving you sh!t, just spelling out the math.

[J.M. Disciple]

I appreciate it. I know it is more risk, but profit "seems" greater. I will definitely have to back test this. I was in process of back testing 1-3-5 myself, but now may have to switch it to compare results. I didn't think you were giving me shit. That seemed like a honest answer and not a troll response.

I was just thinking of this method, since there are only 6 or 7 losses per season anyways with out buying points. Would just have to figure out how often a C wager comes around after a C wager loss. Might do a quick back test of A = 5 B = 8 & C = 16. To get a quick summary of what the results look like.

[CrazyCarl]

Before I would use that, I would need to see the records of A, B, and C of previous seasons. I don't remember the exact details of the 7/5 (testament to how well this thread is run that I forgot the rules since the last time I felt the need to check for myself the plays), but I was able to find these records for v1, v2, and v3 from a couple seasons ago:

V1record so far (finished series): 57-3
(A): 30-30
(B): 22-8
(C): 5-3
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10
UTA 01/17-21

V2 record so far (finished series): 30-1
(A): 17-14
(B): 5-9
(C): 8-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03

V3 record so far (finished series): 65-3
(A): 39-28-1 (W-L-P)
(B): 22-7-1 (W-L-P)
(C): 5-2-1 (W-L-P)


I believe 7/5 included v1 v2 and v3 but if not please just stop me right here. If that's the case, then it seems that the A bets, from this significant, but not large enough to be ideal, sample size is about 54%. With this information, you can calculate a much better estimate about how this works out than just the first few plays of the season we're looking at here, without doing a full backtest.

[J.M. Disciple]

Thanks a millioN! I already gave away my 2 points or i would give them to you. I was looking for those records earlier. Would save me a lot of back testing. Bankroll management will definitely be key since a larger portion of your bankroll is at risk for each series. Would have to use .5% instead of 1% as a unit size, but the profits should come rolling in.

were these the records all from a single season and also what year? I can get a quick estimate in a second.

[J.M. Disciple]

V1record so far (finished series): 57-3
(A): 30-30
(B): 22-8
(C): 5-3
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10
UTA 01/17-21

V2 record so far (finished series): 30-1
(A): 17-14
(B): 5-9
(C): 8-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03

V3 record so far (finished series): 65-3
(A): 39-28-1 (W-L-P)
(B): 22-7-1 (W-L-P)
(C): 5-2-1 (W-L-P)

A) 86 – 72
B) 49 – 24
C) 18 – 5
*1 push; mean a series loss on A & B
A= 86 x 5 = 430units
B = 49 x 3 = 147 units
C = 18 x 1 = 18 units

Tally: 430 + 147 + 18 = 595 units
Loss is approx 33 units x 5 = 165 units

Units earned: 430 units! (595 – 165) over 153 series. Oh ya minus
The 15 units loss from A & B with a C bet push. 415 units

now the question is what time period did these results occur on? I think with a 400 unit season it is definitely worth looking into. For Wallco and limit who have previous back tested records; if you may lend them to me? Guess im asking to be spoon fed with overall record of each year broke down into A-B-C if you have it. If not it may take me a while to dig up the past 5 years or so when I have time on the weekends.

[Wallco99]

Before I would use that, I would need to see the records of A, B, and C of previous seasons. I don't remember the exact details of the 7/5 (testament to how well this thread is run that I forgot the rules since the last time I felt the need to check for myself the plays), but I was able to find these records for v1, v2, and v3 from a couple seasons ago:

V1record so far (finished series): 57-3
(A): 30-30
(B): 22-8
(C): 5-3
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10
UTA 01/17-21

V2 record so far (finished series): 30-1
(A): 17-14
(B): 5-9
(C): 8-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03

V3 record so far (finished series): 65-3
(A): 39-28-1 (W-L-P)
(B): 22-7-1 (W-L-P)
(C): 5-2-1 (W-L-P)


I believe 7/5 included v1 v2 and v3 but if not please just stop me right here. If that's the case, then it seems that the A bets, from this significant, but not large enough to be ideal, sample size is about 54%. With this information, you can calculate a much better estimate about how this works out than just the first few plays of the season we're looking at here, without doing a full backtest.

Keep in mind, these records you have here are most likely buying 3 points results. These in no way reflect playing all the games at -110, which is the major premise of 1-3-5, as well as the newly mentioned 5-3-1. A new backtest will have to be done. If it proved effective, I would love to know about it. No less than 10 seasons backtest in order to generate confident results. With that season quoted, there are 25 C bets alone. That is a lot of sitting on the edge of the seat on a 17+ unit C bet to win 1 unit. Though my system (Chase 110) has these bets on occasion, usually when favorite M/L are involved, they happen a lot less frequently than they will in this JM bet strategy.

[Wallco99]

V1record so far (finished series): 57-3
(A): 30-30
(B): 22-8
(C): 5-3
Lost series:
PHO 11/17-20
DET 12/07-10
UTA 01/17-21

V2 record so far (finished series): 30-1
(A): 17-14
(B): 5-9
(C): 8-1
Lost series:
MIN 10/30-11/03

V3 record so far (finished series): 65-3
(A): 39-28-1 (W-L-P)
(B): 22-7-1 (W-L-P)
(C): 5-2-1 (W-L-P)

A) 86 – 72
B) 49 – 24
C) 18 – 5
*1 push; mean a series loss on A & B
A= 86 x 5 = 430units
B = 49 x 3 = 147 units
C = 18 x 1 = 18 units

Tally: 430 + 147 + 18 = 595 units
Loss is approx 33 units x 5 = 165 units

Units earned: 430 units! (595 – 165) over 153 series. Oh ya minus
The 15 units loss from A & B with a C bet push. 415 units

now the question is what time period did these results occur on? I think with a 400 unit season it is definitely worth looking into. For Wallco and limit who have previous back tested records; if you may lend them to me? Guess im asking to be spoon fed with overall record of each year broke down into A-B-C if you have it. If not it may take me a while to dig up the past 5 years or so when I have time on the weekends.

I'll see what I can find, but these results you quoted are based on Buy 3 points records. Several more losses occur each season by playing games at -110. There are no shortcuts when you are talking about this kind of money. A thorough backtest MUST be done, and it should not be from records sent to you from other people, it should be done by that person him(her)self. This is the ONLY way you can gaurantee the records are accurate. Then save those records for future backtests.

** Note: Be thorough with your math - very critical. The reason I say this is because in your example you based record on 5 losses when there were actually 7, probably several more if all games are played @ -110. Bad numbers = DEATH.

[BETTOR'S EDGE]

I would only apply such a filter if backtest proves these series to be costly and non productive. I will keep a lot of notes during the test, something will come out of it.

Here is only a suggestion that might prove worth considering:

In the NBA never play ML on favorites, are buy more than .5 point on favorites or dogs except on a 'C' play, and then only if they would not have covered the spread with the additional 2 points in either of the 'A' or 'B' games. This way you play at -110 or -120 until final wager.

[Wallco99]

Here is only a suggestion that might prove worth considering:

In the NBA never play ML on favorites, are buy more than .5 point on favorites or dogs except on a 'C' play, and then only if they would not have covered the spread with the additional 2 points in either of the 'A' or 'B' games. This way you play at -110 or -120 until final wager.

My backtest said otherwise, but as I have said nine times now, hopefully my new test can eliminate such plays, and find a better way to play those games without sacrificing too much profit.

[BETTOR'S EDGE]

My backtest said otherwise, but as I have said nine times now, hopefully my new test can eliminate such plays, and find a better way to play those games without sacrificing too much profit.

Well, I tried...lol. Anyway, we appreciate your due diligence in the product of your labor that you share with us.

[CrazyCarl]

Keep in mind, these records you have here are most likely buying 3 points results. These in no way reflect playing all the games at -110, which is the major premise of 1-3-5, as well as the newly mentioned 5-3-1.

Oh yeah.


@JM, I pulled it from one of the last pages of the 2010-2011 season I believe. It may actually not have been the very final record, but it was very close to it if not. Just put it there to help with a very quick estimate, rather than a thorough test of extreme accuracy, so that's why I wasn't too concerned if it was missing a game or two.

In any case, I was going to give you my points for your earlier post in here but already gave them to Stifler. So I guess it worked out

[thelimit0310]

A few points on this 5-3-1 idea

The record CrazyCarl posted is with a 3 point buy. During my 7/5 backtest there were a few seasons that had as much as 13 losses. Also, 3 seasons initially went negative (out of 9). I had to come up with a filter to bring that down to 1. This filter wouldn't be present in 5-3-1 as you play the A bets. The A bets are long run losers w/o 3 point buy so it makes sense the losing 3 seasons would still exist and be exacerbated by the extra bet level.

Another point, at 33 units risk per series you better hope there aren't 3 losses in even remotely close proximity. Because it potentially takes more than triple the amount of wins to break a loss than the 7/5 does, it can't endure more losses or losses in closer proximity. You'd have to win up to 17 or so bets on average for every 1 loss to stay even (7 if all As, 11 if all Bs, 33 if all Cs).

Lastly, if you reduce your unit size to cope with this - you may not make as much money even if you make more units. If you're playing 1% and move to .5%, you need twice as many units as you did before. So all those extra units would be for nothing.

I'd stick to the 7/5, and I say that objectively, it's just safer and more effective. Just my 2 cents. I still encourage a proper backtest of any new method, of course.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2012-13 System to date: 6-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +6.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0


v1 Plays
(A) 6-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0


Games for (11/16/12):
#7 Atlanta @ Sacramento (+2) (A) (10:05 pm EST)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. System rules and backtest can be found in post #219.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

Can someone direct me to a forum where I can post 19 more times (this is my first) so I can PM people. I don't want to clutter. Sorry for this clutter.

[thelimit0310]

7/5 Plays NOV 15

No Plays

7/5 Plays NOV 16

No Plays

Results:
Bet 1: 4-2
Bet 2: 1-1
Utah 11/2

[alexknyc]

Can someone direct me to a forum where I can post 19 more times (this is my first) so I can PM people. I don't want to clutter. Sorry for this clutter.

Can you start your own thread for that?

[hagball52]

Can someone direct me to a forum where I can post 19 more times (this is my first) so I can PM people. I don't want to clutter. Sorry for this clutter.

You can go to the JM MLB thread. Its done for the season so post away.

[J.M. Disciple]

Thanks limit and Wallco for the break down.

@limit -- do you remember what season had those 13 losses? That Way i can start off with that year and either deem the system fail or continue back testing from there.

[thelimit0310]

The seasons with the most losses are: 2003-4, 2005-6, and 2006-7. 2005-6 has the most with 16. Make sure you include the dates of the losses in your testing. If you have 3+ losses in close proximity your bankroll could be wiped despite an eventual recovery.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2012-13 System to date: 6-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +6.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0


v1 Plays
(A) 6-0
(B) 0-0
(C) 0-0
(D) 0-0


Games for (11/16/12):
#7 Atlanta @ Sacramento (+2) (A) (10:05 pm EST)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. System rules and backtest can be found in post #219.

[Wallco99]

Can someone direct me to a forum where I can post 19 more times (this is my first) so I can PM people. I don't want to clutter. Sorry for this clutter.

Use my NHL Gold thread. I am only using it to post Chase 110 plays for now until hockey resumes.

[Wallco99]

Can someone direct me to a forum where I can post 19 more times (this is my first) so I can PM people. I don't want to clutter. Sorry for this clutter.

Hey fella', I see that you PM'ed me, but for some unknown reason, I can't open it. Either try again or post your question.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

copied and pasted..
I've read the whole forum, and I believe you said you didn't mind questions through PM. I'm gonna research the systems before I ask any questions, but I do have a Q.

what the heck is labbying? I've googled it and all I've come up with is that it's something with roulette.
Thanx in advance

[J.M. Disciple]

copied and pasted..
I've read the whole forum, and I believe you said you didn't mind questions through PM. I'm gonna research the systems before I ask any questions, but I do have a Q.

what the heck is labbying? I've googled it and all I've come up with is that it's something with roulette.
Thanx in advance

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/prog1.htm

might help you out. "cancellation system," "labby," etc.

[Wallco99]

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/prog1.htm

might help you out. "cancellation system," "labby," etc.

Thank you for responding, you know my take on the labby.

[J.M. Disciple]

3 games today for JM. Check your schedules if you are following the A bets. STiff has a play today as well. Total of 5 A bets for the three systems.

JM all three are v3 plays.

[J.M. Disciple]

Thank you for responding, you know my take on the labby.

I know you and I both love the labby wallco

[wero76]

where can I see the plays for JM V3 for today?

[stevex]

Fellas...

Have to pull a late night at work and for obvious reasons SBR is blocked. Could someone post the plays tn. Id appreciate it

[Wallco99]

I know you and I both love the labby wallco

Love it like a hernia!

[Wallco99]

Duplicate

[Wallco99]

where can I see the plays for JM V3 for today?

Post #107

stevex, please include this post number (#107) in your updates. Then people will have NO excuses for not having the plays. Those of us who chose to post plays do get busy on occasion, which is completely understandable. People are just going to have to fend for themselves sometimes, it won't kill them. Thanks.

[wero76]

tks wallco99

[J.M. Disciple]

JM schedule & update

4 game chase @ -110
A) 1.1 to win 1
B) 2.31 to win 2.1
C) 4.85 to win 4.41
D) 10.19 To win 9.26

1-3-5 strategy @ -110
A) 1.1 to win 1
B) 4.51 to win 4.1
C) 11.67 to win 10.61

Traditional @ -200 (Buying 3 points)
A) 2 to win 1
B) 6 to win 3
C) 18 to win 9

7/5 strategy @ -110
bet 1: 7.7 to win 7
bet 2:13.97 to win 12.7

Now everyone has the schedule and unit amounts to bet for whatever strategy they choose to follow. Please wait for Stevex, wallco, or Thelimit to post the plays.

Since Steve is tied up at work here are the plays today posted in traditional format.

TODAYS PLAYS 11/16/2012
V3 ORL (A) +8 [3 points bought]
V3 Hou (A)+5 [3 points bought]
V3 GSW (A)+4 [3 points bought]

current record is up to date via attachment.

[J.M. Disciple]

sorry one more post because I have another question. If we are suggesting steve post the plays with the favorites as ML plays, should we also apply the other filters such as injury or worse road team?