John Morrison 2012-13 NBA Thread

**Asset** · 11-29-12, 12:03 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

You like saying that don't you? And you refuse to spell it correctly.

LMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

**J.M. Disciple** · 11-29-12, 12:36 AM

I really hope your system doesn't fail on LAC today. They just lost the lead...

And you know the troll Kenny will come in here again LOL

rooting for LAC... MIN owns every team in Rebounds when Love plays.

Good night all.

**thelimit0310** · 11-29-12, 01:36 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

I actually had it done before the game but got tied up signing an agreement of sale and forgot to post it. I am playing the 7/5 myself, so believe me, I definitely want to see it higher on the list, and I'm sure it will be. All 5 strategies took a loss tonight, not just the one we are playing. If you want, I won't post the results any more if it upsets anyone, but that really was not my intention.

Don't worry about it man I was just joking around, post it whenever you want! Just a little sarcasm

**jackoffalltrades** · 11-29-12, 04:07 AM

Clippers win! The system works!!

**Kev the Brit** · 11-29-12, 05:04 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

1166-39, This overall stat is very intrigueing. If you do buy 3 points anyone know what the overall risk on the series is?

A) 2u to win 1u
B) 6u to win 3u
C) 18u to win 9u

26units risked

39 series losses x 26 units per series... ANYONE? That is right 1,014! units lost over the years, so with 1166 wins, that is only 152 units profit over past 7 years!!!

I hope everyone now understands why majority of people in this forum are thankful for the 7/5 strategy Thelimit post.

My understanding is that the table of JM stats so kindly provided by cmdyrds already includes the 3 point buy. Therefore, each of the above losses costs approx 22 units. Thats an overall loss of 858 from 1166 therefore returning a profit of 308 units over 8 years. Average annual profit is therefore approx 75 units. Its not that bad. However, the alternative staking strategies, within the system, espoused by Wilba, thelimit and Wallco clearly improve the profits to be made.

Kev

**Kev the Brit** · 11-29-12, 05:15 AM

Originally posted by Wallco99

I would hope no one played the last game, as I hope no one would lay that juice tonight on a (B) bet. Hopefully everyone skipped this series and for those who are playing, hopefully the (-110) is their choice.

I realize if this series happens to lose, the Chase 110 numbers will be so negative, that no recovery this season would be possible. But common sense and logic are saying that no person would be playing these bets, even though the "system calls for it". I will document the records according to the rules I have laid out. But in the case of a series loss, I would be confident in saying that no person in here would be down that amount.

I believe on future system plays, I may negate such series that start with an extremely high M/L in game 1, as the Clippers did Monday. As the system creator, I can make changes that I feel will improve the system, and until I can complete the new backtests that I was mentioning last week, this may seem to be the best option for now.

The system works. Yes, the odds can be very short but that is because the team in focus is an overwhelming favourite. Unless you are able to create a filter that is not too intrusive into the number of plays, my advice is that you do nothing different to what you just did with the LAC series: add a health warning at the A Bet and suggest bettors risk a much lower stake or pass on the series. Last night LAC proved the system is robust.

Kev

**Wallco99** · 11-29-12, 08:09 AM

Originally posted by Kev the Brit

My understanding is that the table of JM stats so kindly provided by cmdyrds already includes the 3 point buy. Therefore, each of the above losses costs approx 22 units. Thats an overall loss of 858 from 1166 therefore returning a profit of 308 units over 8 years. Average annual profit is therefore approx 75 units. Its not that bad. However, the alternative staking strategies, within the system, espoused by Wilba, thelimit and Wallco clearly improve the profits to be made.

Kev

Actually, 308 units profit over 8 years would be 38.5 units/season, not 75. Also, if getting three point buys @ -170 odds like some of us do, the losses are 18.68 units, and the average profit for 8 years would be 54.63 units. But I don't buy points anyway.

**wero76** · 11-29-12, 09:57 AM

keep posting Wallco... thanks for the time you invest ....

**thelimit0310** · 11-29-12, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by Kev the Brit

The system works. Yes, the odds can be very short but that is because the team in focus is an overwhelming favourite. Unless you are able to create a filter that is not too intrusive into the number of plays, my advice is that you do nothing different to what you just did with the LAC series: add a health warning at the A Bet and suggest bettors risk a much lower stake or pass on the series. Last night LAC proved the system is robust.

Can't help but wonder how many units came from large moneyline series? If we skip them what does that bring the unit count to? We've come across 2 instances of this already.

**thelimit0310** · 11-29-12, 10:51 AM

7/5 Plays NOV 28

Portland -3.5 vs Washington - Bet 2

7/5 Plays NOV 29

No Plays

Results: +6.66u
Bet 1: 5-5
Bet 2: 3-2
Utah 11/2
Portland 11/25

Note: There are no potential plays until December 2nd. I will continue posting updates on that date.

**alexknyc** · 11-29-12, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

Can't help but wonder how many units came from large moneyline series? If we skip them what does that bring the unit count to? We've come across 2 instances of this already.

I played the Clippers ATS like Wallco did. I lost both the A and B bets. I'm not continuing the series after the ML win. It's a small loss and I can make it up with better bets later on.

**clamchowder** · 11-29-12, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by NZT-48

and nice job Portland I really appreciate it a lot.....freaking pricks.......

ROFL! No kidding. I laid off this game last night because the openimg line was fishy. Wiz was 0 - 12 and the line was a pk. It was pushed up to blaz -3. I always purchase 2 points but decided not to touch the game.

**NZT-48** · 11-29-12, 12:31 PM

lol yeah no kidding what makes this whole thing even funnier is that JM says its a B Bet and will send out a C Bet email for it tomm like uh?....ok lol

Originally posted by clamchowder

ROFL! No kidding. I laid off this game last night because the openimg line was fishy. Wiz was 0 - 12 and the line was a pk. It was pushed up to blaz -3. I always purchase 2 points but decided not to touch the game.

**hagball52** · 11-29-12, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by NZT-48

lol yeah no kidding what makes this whole thing even funnier is that JM says its a B Bet and will send out a C Bet email for it tomm like uh?....ok lol

There's a good chance JM already is calling Portland a win because the line opened as a pick so if you would have bought 3 points at that time you would have won by a point. JM has always done that in the past. No matter what time of day if there was a favorable point spread he claimed it.

**hagball52** · 11-29-12, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

blueberry?

NO. Huckleberry.

**MARCUS** · 11-29-12, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

1166-39, This overall stat is very intrigueing. If you do buy 3 points anyone know what the overall risk on the series is?

A) 2u to win 1u
B) 6u to win 3u
C) 18u to win 9u

26units risked

39 series losses x 26 units per series... ANYONE? That is right 1,014! units lost over the years, so with 1166 wins, that is only 152 units profit over past 7 years!!!

I hope everyone now understands why majority of people in this forum are thankful for the 7/5 strategy Thelimit post.

...

...thanks jm..i'm surprised it's that good (bad)..plus all that risk to win 1 unit?..zero value!!..juice KILL$.

**jackoffalltrades** · 11-29-12, 03:16 PM

Are there any plays for the Wallaco system today?

**BCC585** · 11-29-12, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by jackoffalltrades

Are there any plays for the Wallaco system today?

I'm assuming no because none of the teams that are playing today are on three game losing streak.
But hey, I could be wrong.....

**Wallco99** · 11-29-12, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by thelimit0310

Can't help but wonder how many units came from large moneyline series? If we skip them what does that bring the unit count to? We've come across 2 instances of this already.

That is the whole premise of my re-backtest. Will definitely let you know.

**Wallco99** · 11-29-12, 03:56 PM

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2012-13 System to date: 13-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +13.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

(11/28/12):
#13 L.A. Clippers (M/L) (B) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 9-4
(B) 2-2
(C) 2-0
(D) 0-0

There are no system plays for (11/29/12)

We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post.
System rules and backtest can be found in post #219.

**Wallco99** · 11-29-12, 03:57 PM

Sorry the update was posted so late. Apparently I posted it in the wrong thread this morning. But here it is, no plays until tomorrow.

**Riceboi** · 11-29-12, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by jackoffalltrades

Clippers win! The system works!!

lol sure hope it works when betting money lines that high.

**NZT-48** · 11-29-12, 04:59 PM

yeah true to on that one hag he spins it out of sheer wanting to not mess with his mark of no losses.....you know what this reminds me of hag since u run the MLB thread of his.....that time he had the Angels back a couple of yrs ago as a C Bet when they started playing another team lol unreal

Originally posted by hagball52

There's a good chance JM already is calling Portland a win because the line opened as a pick so if you would have bought 3 points at that time you would have won by a point. JM has always done that in the past. No matter what time of day if there was a favorable point spread he claimed it.

**NZT-48** · 11-29-12, 05:07 PM

does anyone know why that the Spurs main stars are suddenly not playing tonight b/c the line is inflated now for obvious reasons but it must have just happened.....dont understand why there are not playing and cant find a good site that will show why either if anyone knows a good one let me know......

the site I used to see that they were out was scoresandodds.com but it doesnt give reasons though thanks

**Wallco99** · 11-29-12, 05:20 PM

Who cares!!!!!!
If they are out with broken toes, does that make the game more playable then if they were out with the flu?

Once again, who cares!!!!

**1gamer** · 11-29-12, 06:27 PM

What would you consider a Large Moneyline Series? I consider anything over -120 large.

**J.M. Disciple** · 11-29-12, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by NZT-48

does anyone know why that the Spurs main stars are suddenly not playing tonight b/c the line is inflated now for obvious reasons but it must have just happened.....dont understand why there are not playing and cant find a good site that will show why either if anyone knows a good one let me know......

the site I used to see that they were out was scoresandodds.com but it doesnt give reasons though thanks

covers.com/pageloader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/matchups/g5_summary_1.html

Covers updated and apparently its "coaches decision" just to rest those 3 players.

**J.M. Disciple** · 11-29-12, 07:26 PM

MIA did struggle some with CLE & MIL and spurs bench is pretty damn good if not one of the best in the league. I smell a easy back door cover

**NZT-48** · 11-29-12, 07:30 PM

hmmm maybe but definitely I dont believe is a betting game anymore it would have attractive just to bet it with those 3 in and they were +5.5 but no naw stay but I agree sounds like a sneaky cover

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

MIA did struggle some with CLE & MIL and spurs bench is pretty damn good if not one of the best in the league. I smell a easy back door cover

**NZT-48** · 11-29-12, 07:32 PM

thanks J.M. I mean geez this isnt the MLB here where u just rest players and so early in the season like really? wow man makes no sense plus its only 1 of 2 games tonight on TNT but ok lol

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

covers.com/pageloader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nba/matchups/g5_summary_1.html

Covers updated and apparently its "coaches decision" just to rest those 3 players.

**Wallco99** · 11-29-12, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by NZT-48

thanks J.M. I mean geez this isnt the MLB here where u just rest players and so early in the season like really? wow man makes no sense plus its only 1 of 2 games tonight on TNT but ok lol

Is this really how you speak every day? You must be a real success!

**J.M. Disciple** · 11-29-12, 08:42 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Is this really how you speak every day? You must be a real success!

Not everyone is American...

**Wallco99** · 11-29-12, 08:53 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Not everyone is American...

He's not even human, but he does reside in America. Trolls are their own breed!

**J.M. Disciple** · 11-29-12, 10:13 PM

Hows your family doing Wallco since the accident? I notice these past two weeks your still a dick, but more on the humorous side.

**Wallco99** · 11-29-12, 10:44 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Hows your family doing Wallco since the accident? I notice these past two weeks your still a dick, but more on the humorous side.

She's pretty much totally recovered, thanks for asking. Still problems with her shoulder, but believe me, we'll take that. Not really a dick, just keeping it fun and policing for trolls. Other than that, business ass usual. I meant to spell it that way!