John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[casdio]

Hey guys!

Let's all remortgage our houses and only play Bobcats BC 7/5!!!
It went 3-0

Why are you laughing? Isn't that true (in JM system, not chase -110)?

[DustyDiamond]

Quick question when it comes to playing 7/5, do you buy the 3 points like you would playing JM or stick to the -110 spread? I apologize in advance if this has been asked before.

[casdio]

Quick question when it comes to playing 7/5, do you buy the 3 points like you would playing JM or stick to the -110 spread? I apologize in advance if this has been asked before.

7/5 does not buy points

[Hunner24]

Quick question when it comes to playing 7/5, do you buy the 3 points like you would playing JM or stick to the -110 spread? I apologize in advance if this has been asked before.

-110 spreads. No buying points in the 7/5.

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 48-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +10.71 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

v1 Plays
(A) 28-22
(B) 9-12
(C) 8-5
(D) 3-2

V2 Plays
In production


There are no system plays for (3/14/12)

[Wilba]

Yes, it was part of the backtest. All versions were tested, including 1-3-5, and 7/5 prevailed.

Limit, Wallco or whoever can provide - I hope you don't mind me asking what was the total unit win comparison for 3/3 with points to 7/5 w/out points for the 5 year period?

If you don't want to post the info publicly I'd greatly appreciate a PM, I hope that I have contributed enough in terms of stats info etc in the past to be able to ask for this stat, but if you would rather not provide it to me no problem

[Wallco99]

Limit, Wallco or whoever can provide - I hope you don't mind me asking what was the total unit win comparison for 3/3 with points to 7/5 w/out points for the 5 year period?

If you don't want to post the info publicly I'd greatly appreciate a PM, I hope that I have contributed enough in terms of stats info etc in the past to be able to ask for this stat, but if you would rather not provide it to me no problem

Limit has those breakdowns, I believe.

[thelimit0310]

Maxi check your messages, I gave you my email I need to the odds calculator again.

[thelimit0310]

....

[thelimit0310]

You must be joking, right?

Are you really like all others here that justify their point by the outcome?
Further more, by ONE outcome.

That series was EV-, period.

If your playing traditional JM I can see why you would second guess the plays, but the 7/5 shows great profit consistently; there's absolutely no need to handicap a proven system.

I'm not "one of those people" and I'm not sure why you took it so personal. I base my points on facts and the fact is that it is not necessary to handicap a system. As many experienced people have stated many times already even the worst teams can pull through and possibly be the biggest source of wins for a season.

[thelimit0310]

JM MAR 13

V3 MIAMI -1.5 @ Orlando (A) LOSS
V3 TORONTO +7.5 @ Cleveland (A) WIN

JM MAR 14

V1 DETROIT +7 @ Sacramento (B) : 7/5 @ +4
V3 MIAMI +5.5 @ Chicago (B) : 7/5 @ +2.5

[casdio]

So, today we will have two 7/5 bets, right? Miami and Detroit?

[wero76]

isn't Portland a B bet also?

[J.M. Disciple]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 48-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +10.71 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

v1 Plays
(A) 28-22
(B) 9-12
(C) 8-5
(D) 3-2

V2 Plays
In production


There are no system plays for (3/14/12)

Not doing unofficial Dallas series any more?

[onacloud]

Not doing unofficial Dallas series any more?

Dallas won last night 107-98 wasn't the bet Dallas ML which was around -1300?

[Nino7]

isn't Portland a B bet also?

^...

[Kev the Brit]

You are absoluetly correct. I don't know why Kevin keeps using the 1 in 21 reference, when the majority of people don't seem to be playing traditional JM. Even the way he plays, 3/3, it is nowhere near 1 in 21, it can actually lose a lot more often and still be profitable in the end. If it loses 1 in 21, as he says, that would mean the other 20 were wins. If that were the case, and playing 3/3, he would net +60 units on the wins and -18 to -21 units on the loss. How does this justify skipping such bets? These stats are in the stone age, time to update to accomodate the new bet styles being utilized. Enough with all the crap, play them all, or don't play at all. Even the worst teams ATS do have victories ATS, which means, Yes, they do win games.

I have a total risk of 21 units from buying 3 points at Bet365. I think the majority of players buy the points and our bookies offer different odds.

I accept your logic about gaining 3 units over 20 winning series and losing only 21 units in one failed series, thus producing 39 units profit. However, that is the best case for the gambler: a filter that works once in 21 series. However, in the last 3 years I have seen a few worst road teams failing to win their series and there hasn't been 20 series on the worst road teams, so I think it works maybe once in 5 or 6 series. I will check my records, but archived daily League positions are difficult to dig up.

[J.M. Disciple]

Dallas won last night 107-98 wasn't the bet Dallas ML which was around -1300?

He made it unofficial due to the juice involved and was going to play it as unofficial bet ATS. he posted it a page back..

[onacloud]

He made it unofficial due to the juice involved and was going to play it as unofficial bet ATS. he posted it a page back..

Gotcha didn't catch that

[Nino7]

What about portland?

[thelimit0310]

Portland was never a system bet so it will not be posted along with any other bets that are "Continued From" an earlier series. The only reason those bets are on the schedule is because I put them there just in case anyone wanted extra action during the shortened season. I repeat "continued from" series are not part of the system. I even noted that they weren't at the bottom of the schedule! It seems every few days someone is asking about a series that falls under this category and it needs to stop as it's only adding extra clutter and confusion.

[Nino7]

thelimit plz,can you explain to me why its not a system play?its on a 6 road game trip so it should be split on two series?thx for ur patience

[Nino7]

ok thx thelimit

[Wallco99]

Not doing unofficial Dallas series any more?

There is no Dallas series, read yesterday's quote. And even if there was, they won M/L last night, I was playing it P/L on the side, no affiliation with the system.

[Wallco99]

I have a total risk of 21 units from buying 3 points at Bet365. I think the majority of players buy the points and our bookies offer different odds.

I accept your logic about gaining 3 units over 20 winning series and losing only 21 units in one failed series, thus producing 39 units profit. However, that is the best case for the gambler: a filter that works once in 21 series. However, in the last 3 years I have seen a few worst road teams failing to win their series and there hasn't been 20 series on the worst road teams, so I think it works maybe once in 5 or 6 series. I will check my records, but archived daily League positions are difficult to dig up.

It doesn't matter, it would have to fail once in every seven series to be worth it, not 21, and I doubt even the worst road teams are failing at that rate. And until you or someone else can show me that they are, instead of just assuming or guessing, I will stick to the principle that skipping the worst team is foolish.

[Wallco99]

He made it unofficial due to the juice involved and was going to play it as unofficial bet ATS. he posted it a page back..

It wasn't made unofficial, it was negated, which means I won't be posting anything about it again. Chase 110 has no "unofficial" plays associated with it.

[Wallco99]

thelimit plz,can you explain to me why its not a system play?its on a 6 road game trip so it should be split on two series?thx for ur patience

Because it's not. That's not how it works. Go back to the JM pdf for those answers.

[J.M. Disciple]

A couple of really good bets today.

NCAAB: Manhattan -1.5 vs Albany if you need the extra action.

--JMD

[J.M. Disciple]

There is no Dallas series, read yesterday's quote. And even if there was, they won M/L last night, I was playing it P/L on the side, no affiliation with the system.

I didn't know they had PL in the NBA.. Where Can i find this Just giving you hard time obviously...

I think with the Dallas series you should still count it in your system. Just because it is high juice should not negate wether the series should be played or not. NYK had like 80+units riding on that series correct? I would just note that Dallas should be followed at your own risk. 1:13 odds is terrible, but unless you did not count the -10pt favorites in the back test it should still be a system win. If you choose not to play it that is fine.

[J.M. Disciple]

It doesn't matter, it would have to fail once in every seven series to be worth it, not 21, and I doubt even the worst road teams are failing at that rate. And until you or someone else can show me that they are, instead of just assuming or guessing, I will stick to the principle that skipping the worst team is foolish.

I think all this fuss is about reducing variance. Long run it is more +EV to play the worse teams cause they will show a profit. Showing a profit is more +EV then skipping the series which shows 0 profit long run. It will be slightly higher variance because they will lose a series once in a while, but I seriously doubt they lose more then 2 out of 7 series.

This rule was put in by John Morrison to try in perfect his record. With the great minds in this forum though, we all put our minds together and try to maximize our profits not perfect our records. Perfect records are great, but most of the time they come with less profits because less games to choose from.

With the new betting strategies in place; 1-3-5 & 7/5 a perfect record will not occur, but our profits will be double that of John Morrison's traditional methods of betting to win 1 unit via ABC method.

I hope this helps.

Lets stop all the fuss and get back to making that cheddar che e

JMD

[Kev the Brit]

I didn't know they had PL in the NBA.. Where Can i find this Just giving you hard time obviously...

I think with the Dallas series you should still count it in your system. Just because it is high juice should not negate wether the series should be played or not. NYK had like 80+units riding on that series correct? I would just note that Dallas should be followed at your own risk. 1:13 odds is terrible, but unless you did not count the -10pt favorites in the back test it should still be a system win. If you choose not to play it that is fine.

I agree. Whatever was taken into account in backtests should be taken into account with the live results.

[Wallco99]

I agree. Whatever was taken into account in backtests should be taken into account with the live results.

Sorry, this one could have been off the charts if we lost. And had a similar situation come up during the backtest, I would have skipped it then too. That play is out.

[Wallco99]

I didn't know they had PL in the NBA.. Where Can i find this Just giving you hard time obviously...

I think with the Dallas series you should still count it in your system. Just because it is high juice should not negate wether the series should be played or not. NYK had like 80+units riding on that series correct? I would just note that Dallas should be followed at your own risk. 1:13 odds is terrible, but unless you did not count the -10pt favorites in the back test it should still be a system win. If you choose not to play it that is fine.

It was 60 units, not 80, but still, that is a lot. However, had Dallas lost this game @ -1250, and lost the next game to Charlotte, who we'll guess to be a -1000 dog also, and then proceeded to lose the C&D bets, even assuming both of those are -110, our total loss would have been -654 units. A $100 bettor would have lost $65,389. Some things are just beyond ridiculous, and because of this possibility, and the poor play of Dallas as of late, I really don't feel I need to further explain myself of why that one didn't count. So to further emphasise, the NY Knicks series isn't even remotely comparable.

[knugen]

Damn , what happen to Miami line, it was up to +5,5 then i thought i should wait some more, and then it dropped to +2,5 and because of that i lost My bet!?

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 48-2 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +10.71 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

v1 Plays
(A) 28-22
(B) 9-12
(C) 8-5
(D) 3-2

V2 Plays
In production


There are no system plays for (3/15/12)