John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[thelimit0310]

I use the Covers line, as krzychu did last year, and it was +9.5 at the time of posting which was midday. Though if the consensus is that it should be ruled a loss I will change it.

[thelimit0310]

If you are going to focus on backtesting JM, then I will concentrate on bet strategy for Chase 110, and find a way to eliminate the M/L bets. It will take a while, but do it both ways, as I plan to do. On A/B, and on B/C, see which ends up better, and I guess for your B/C, only play the games that also lost the (A) bet with buying the 3 points, as you suggested earlier. It would be very interesting to know how many times buying and not buying actually made a difference in the (A) bet position vs. when it happened in (B) and (C). Keep me informed as you complete each season, and I will do the same.

This will take some time as my free time has been limited the past few weeks but I will definitely work on it. If anyone wants to chip it to help finish it quicker can PM me and we can discuss it.

Wallco, this would be my first time I've extensively backtested, so if you could PM me any tips or pointers and resources you have as an experienced backtester I would appreciate it! And of course I will fill you in on results as they become available.

[thelimit0310]

JM January 23

V3 MEMPHIS +4.5 @ Golden State (A)
V3 NEW JERSEY +16.5 @ Chicago (A)
V3 ATLANTA +2 @ Milwaukee (A)

All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

[pagodo]

I'm not convinced that the A Bet won. Sure, Toronto opened at +9.5 but the line quickly reduced and never went back above +9. I think it was a push at best. Each to his own (JM will count it as a win, cos he has his own self-promoting rules), but I'm playing the B Bet. Did anyone here win the A bet yesterday, and what time did you bet?

Kev

Kev, I had the Raptors at +9 four hours before tip-off, so I registered this (A) bet as a push and will consider tomorrow's TOR@PHX as another (A).

If I had +8.5, I would still consider this a series loss since the line did in fact open at +9.5 (as per thelimit's rundown). It's always murky waters with those 1-point/line-movement JM losses and it's entirely up to the bettor how to continue in a case like this. I'm playing high unit values and I try to keep myself on the safe side of things, so I would rather suffer a small loss and move on to the next series than keep playing an "unofficial" series with lots at stake.

[petters72]

I use pinnacle and I got +11 with Toronto and lost the bet. I wonder now what to do? Should I take the loss or play the B-bet...thanks. And I must say that I really appriceate this thread. I have learned a lot about betting and would really like to learn more. So please dont pm eachother to much because when you discuss forward and back I learn more and more about betting. Thank You all and please advice me...

[Wallco99]

This will take some time as my free time has been limited the past few weeks but I will definitely work on it. If anyone wants to chip it to help finish it quicker can PM me and we can discuss it.

Wallco, this would be my first time I've extensively backtested, so if you could PM me any tips or pointers and resources you have as an experienced backtester I would appreciate it! And of course I will fill you in on results as they become available.

It almost seems we would have an easier time doing a lot of this on the phone.

[adidas-b 88]

Pls who can tell me the JM Nba version 2&3 rules

This should help!

[Wallco99]

This will take some time as my free time has been limited the past few weeks but I will definitely work on it. If anyone wants to chip it to help finish it quicker can PM me and we can discuss it.

Wallco, this would be my first time I've extensively backtested, so if you could PM me any tips or pointers and resources you have as an experienced backtester I would appreciate it! And of course I will fill you in on results as they become available.

No doubt, this takes a very long time if you want accuracy. Covers.com will probably be the best source for this, since their data goes back about 15 years or so. The only problem with them is you have to work each team's schedule backwards, since they list the most recent game first. It is a pain in the ass at the beginning, but once you get used to it, all will move a little quicker. Test a couple different theories at once on seperate sheets of paper. It takes a little longer as you are going, but it is quicker than going through every schedule 2 or 3 times. I am currently testing three different bet strategies for Chase 110. Instead of going through each team each year three times, I am doing all three at once, on seperate sheets, also I'm marking which bets won on M/L and would have won anyway ATS, this will allow me to compare those #'s to the already published Chase 110 backtest.

If the A bets really aren't in your interest right now, then I would do 4 seperate tests, if I were you, on 4 seperate sheets.
1) 5/7 method on B/C bets, excluding the series that would have won the A bet buying 3 points.
2) 5/7 method on B/C bets including those series
3) 7/5 method on B/C bets, excluding the series that would have won the A bet buying 3 points.
4) 7/5 method on B/C bets including those series

* I have a feeling #3 & #4 are going to produce more.
** Keep in mind, a 5/7 loss costs 19.25 units, a 7/5 loss costs 21.65 units, but there will be a lot more wins @ 7 units.

You may get through a few seasons and see that one particular bet method ALWAYS ends ahead of the others, if this is the case, only continue on with 1 or 2. When I was initially doing Chase 110, I was doing 6 different scenarios at once. By the third season, I was able to weed out 4 of them.

I have the results for 2010-11 and 2009-10 for the 5/7 and 7/5 already done for JM, however, my results include ALL series, even the ones that were a JM victory by buying the 3 points on the A bet. You would still have to test again to remove those plays, I didn't keep track of how many games lost ATS on the A bet and would have won if I purchased 3 points.

You were also asking before how the last strike shortened season did in 1998-99, the results suck no matter which bet strategy we would have used playing games @ -110, I am not sure how the traditional system did that year, and if anyone knows, I would love to hear it.

[norseman23]

Hey guys, long time lurker first time posting here

Thanks for the awesome discussion, especially from wallco, thelimit, etc. The talks this morning have certainly been intense.

Now that the dust has finally settled a bit, just to clarify, our best course right now is 1-3-5 until further testing on 5-7 proves otherwise, correct?

[Wallco99]

Hey guys, long time lurker first time posting here

Thanks for the awesome discussion, especially from wallco, thelimit, etc. The talks this morning have certainly been intense.

Now that the dust has finally settled a bit, just to clarify, our best course right now is 1-3-5 until further testing on 5-7 proves otherwise, correct?

I didn't say it was the best, this is one of the areas I am testing. I only said that I played it for 1/2 a season last year and I am playing it currently, I have tested two seasons prior, and it performed very well. However, my test of 7/5 outperformed it by a pretty good margin for those 2 seasons. Keep in mind, this is only two years of test, and playing ALL JM series, regardless of whether or not buying points would have won an A bet that lost ATS. My advice would be, play it the way you always have until we can hammer out the most profitable bet strategy, which believe me, we are working on.

[Maxi_EV]

Ok guys! For those following Wallco in Chase 110:

NyKnicks will be FAVORITE tomorrow. It is our HUGE (D) bet...
I won't be playing ML for sure...
Might stay on -110...

What will you guys do?

Also, do you think we should bet early since a lot of money should be laid down on NY for this game?

[knugen]

Knicks game are up on pinnacle already, -4,5.. Maybe put that bet in already now?

[Maxi_EV]

Knicks game are up on pinnacle already, -4,5.. Maybe put that bet in already now?

See? It was -4 on pinnacle 1 hour ago

[knugen]

ok.. thne i will put my bet in now...

[Wallco99]

Ok guys! For those following Wallco in Chase 110:

NyKnicks will be FAVORITE tomorrow. It is our HUGE (D) bet...
I won't be playing ML for sure...
Might stay on -110...

What will you guys do?

Also, do you think we should bet early since a lot of money should be laid down on NY for this game?

I think I am with you on that one, I am also trying to find a way to eliminate all future M/L plays in this system.

[Wilba]

This post confuses me. I thought you advocated buying the 3 points. You appear to be critical of buying the points. Or is the above message critical of playing the A bets?

Kev

I do buy points.. I am critical of people thinking that short winning/losing streaks on a certain bet type (A bets for example) has any relevance on their overall profitability. It doesn't

[Wilba]

Wilba thanks for your post, I tried to give you points but it wouldn't let me! I guess you'll have to settle for a "thank you"!

You are correct on all fronts and I hope anyone who was still confused over the whole unit deal regarding 5/7 understands now that it is not just an "inflated" unit. If it stands with other management systems it must be taken as 5 and 7 units for relation purposes. Thanks again for helping me make that clear!

Last season the victor was playing the 7/5 method on the A/B bets. It was sloppy but it profited the most. Long term I would say you are correct however. Especially with the possibility of having extra unofficial losses, the A bets are too sloppy to play at -110. Even for the years that the A/B way comes out on top - playing the B/C way will still be more efficient in that there will be less losses to sit through and less series to risk money on. Playing 7/5 instead of 5/7 looks to be the better way so far as well for JM, but I am still tinkering around with it!

Thanks again!

You are most welcome. And for all I know, the increased number of bets on the A level may win out over the higher quality but lessor number of bets on the C level profit wise. Definitely do not write your idea off based on what I think, I do not think it would be more profitable but I definitely can not be positive about that. Good luck with it and please share longer term results if/when you research them

[Wilba]

Good to hear from you again, as always. I agree with you on many points, I just suggested something that I planned to test to see if it was good or not and several people took it as play it that way now. Even as far as my 1-3-5, and my thoughts on 7/5 instaed of 5/7, I specifically said that even though I may be playing some of the systems this way, I wouldn't suggest anyone else doing so until I have had proper time to backtest. I, like you, am a 100% believer in thorough extensive backtesting, and don't believe in throwing out ideas based on current season, small sample size, results. I believe there is a way I can make 7/5 work with some of these systems, either A/B, B/C, or C/D, but even like limit's 5/7, it is just a theory until I can find a way to make it work and prove it will be successful. I completely agree that 7/5 and 5/7 is not just an inflation of units. It is the same principle I used for 1-3-5, the total risk of series is 17.28 units, which is actually less than a JM loss. Actually I can do 1-3-6, and still be 1/2 unit less than JM, which actually, is what I may do. Granted, I will have more losses, but it will take a hell of a lot fewer wins to make up for those losses than a Jm series would require.

absolutely. See my above post, I think the idea definitely has merit and would be very interested to see the resulting back test when it is available. Thanks on behalf of everyone for all the work you put in

[knugen]

wilba, i using labbyline and not buying points, but u meant thats not a good idea?

[Wilba]

wilba, i using labbyline and not buying points, but u meant thats not a good idea?

I can't comment on labby without buying points as I have very little experience with it. Many people do it this way and like it though. Maybe Stevex would be a better person to ask as I know he religiously uses this method with good success

[knugen]

STEVEX, hope u see this message and can answear me, are you using labbyline wit no buying points?
that is what i have start doing and wonder if that is any good?

[Maxi_EV]

ok.. thne i will put my bet in now...

Mine is placed.
I took -4 @ -112

Pretty sure early betting is the way to go here.

[J.M. Disciple]

Great discussion guys, looking forward to next season once we have all the 5/7, 7/5, 4/6, 1-3-5, all back tested properly.

Its up to each individual what they want to follow. 7/5 and 1-3-5 both perform well over past 2 seasons. Follow at your own risk until back tested is finished.

--JMD

[stevex]

knugen. Yes I'm labbying and just playing ML with all 3 versions of JM NBA and SBP Original and Updated Systems. Worked great for me last year and is this year as well...

[stickbit]

stevex - have you considered staggering your labby lines? do you play multiple lines? I might switch my lines up and do something like this...got me thinking after seeing the 1-3-5 thing...this might be a better way to go than traditional one line labby:
line 1: 20-20-20-20
line 2: 40-40-40-40
line 3: 60-60-60-60

[Maxi_EV]

To Wallco and TheLimit:

This 7/5 thing is simply sick! I have a system under construction involving another sport. I have 5 seasons backtest completed and I was pretty satisfied with the results. It was a 4 games chase system.
Result were after 5 seasons:
Total : 145 units
Average: 29 units

Then I took a look at the winning % and realized that (C) & (D) bets show the highest percentages. I then backtested again applying 7/5 on (C) & (D).

New results:
Total: 238 units
Average: 47.52 units

All seasons comfortably in the green!

[manutd19]

To Wallco and TheLimit:

This 7/5 thing is simply sick! I have a system under construction involving another sport. I have 5 seasons backtest completed and I was pretty satisfied with the results. It was a 4 games chase system.
Result were after 5 seasons:
Total : 145 units
Average: 29 units

Then I took a look at the winning % and realized that (C) & (D) bets show the highest percentages. I then backtested again applying 7/5 on (C) & (D).

New results:
Total: 238 units
Average: 47.52 units

All seasons comfortably in the green!

do you want to share it? What sport is it and are you going to open a thread for it?

[XS$z]

JM 3-0 tonight!

Memphis with a hell of a comeback.

Love it!

[XS$z]

deleted.

[knugen]

knugen. Yes I'm labbying and just playing ML with all 3 versions of JM NBA and SBP Original and Updated Systems. Worked great for me last year and is this year as well...

Ok! But are you continue with a serie if the bet win with 3 point bought, like the NETS tonight, do u gonna play their B bet?

[manutd19]

I was hoping we would have at least a game going to the B bet, but they all won. Congrats to the A bets bettors.

[COBRA31]

I am not buying points....just taking the spread. I had Nets at +13, so they'll be moving on to "B" bet.

[COBRA31]

I have a spreadsheet below that I think is very helpful for keeping track of the 3 different Version JM System bets. This is based on the 1,3,5 bet strategy and can be easily changed to reflect "5,7", "7,5", or Whatever.

It will automatically calculate your bet size based on your starting unit. It will automatically keep track of your BankRoll as well. You can use it to see what Wins/Loses will look like and the overall change to your total account.

The 1,3,5 strategy buys no points and plays the spread, so you will see all the juice at -110. I've added an instructions tab to the sheet that explains the different cells.

I like it and thought i'd share...seemed too nice & spent too much time on it to just keep it to myself.

Any questions or feedback...let me know.

P.S = I think the series bets are all accurate...but let me know if you happen to see any errors.

[COBRA31]

The Raptors Series showing on the spreadsheet for 24th is technically an unofficial B bet for those not buying points. I was thinking of just starting and playing it as an "A" tomorrow. Not sure if there is any wisdom one way or the other on that. Sorry any confusion.

[Kev the Brit]

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