John Morrison 2011-12 NBA Thread

[dallaswynn]

Please

Does any one have a JM PDF for V3? I have V2 and had no idea of another filter. I thought there was only one game played thus far????

[dlunc3]

guys... maybe im dumb for thinking it, but I am very worried about the jm systems this season...

This season is completely different from what we are used to, as these teams are playing sometimes b2b2b2b nights, or sometimes 7 or 8 out of 10 days.... Already we are playing all road teams, but now we have the added factor that these teams will be traveling and playing on the same day much more often, due to the condensed schedule. Maybe im out of my mind in my thinking... but personally, I think I may thread lightly where this system is concerned this yr.

BOL

[Win89]

I pretty sure the lines adjust for these factors and you have to keep in mind that our opponents are in the same boat playing similar schedules and are tired as well.

[dallaswynn]

Anybody

Hello?

[mcmister]

same as V1, V2 except V3 has no conference filter...

[dallaswynn]

Seriously?!?!

Why not have a Z bet!! Has anyone back tested this filter?

[Bugs Bunny]

JM January 5 V3 MIAMI +1 @ Atlanta (A) WIN *Unofficial* V1 MILWAUKEE -3 @ Sacramento (C) LOSS RESULTS PER VERSION Version 1 A: 2-2 B: 0-2 C: 2-0 Version 2 A: 0-1 B: 0-0 C: 0-0 Version 3 A: 5-6 B: 5-1 C: 1-0 Totals A: 7-9 B: 5-3 C: 3-0 This is also updated for the Cavs series, sorry for the mistake, they did not cover on the 4th.

So Cleveland should be a B bet tonight, right?

[thelimit0310]

Cleveland is a B bet tonight and is also a V1 A bet.

[Win89]

So Cleveland should be a B bet tonight, right?

I think Cleveland is a V2 B bet although as per system rules since they lost by more than 3 points against the spread to an in conference team prior to their 3 OOC they will be a V1 A bet and that's how I'm gonna look at it. V1 plays are first priority so should be an official V1 A.

[thelimit0310]

Why not have a Z bet!! Has anyone back tested this filter?

If you have the bankroll to make it to a Z bet then be my guest. But you most likely don't.

[thelimit0310]

JM January 6

V2 CLEVELAND +10 @ Minnesota (B)
V1 CLEVELAND +10 @ Minnesota (A)

*Unofficial* V3 HOUSTON +9 @ Oklahoma City (C)

Note: Cleveland is 2 plays today, a V2 B and a V1 A, and both will be counted separately on the record.

All official plays are posted with 3 points bought. ML will not be taken on favorites greater than -3.

[jcygts6]

Gracias

[Kev the Brit]

JM January 5 V3 MIAMI +1 @ Atlanta (A) WIN *Unofficial* V1 MILWAUKEE -3 @ Sacramento (C) LOSS

Which results in a loss of 8.3 units by the guys who do not buy points while trying to win 1 unit. Also, Wallco's new "Chase135" system (no point buying, but betting to win 1,3,5 units) has just lost 17 units.

[Kev the Brit]

Wallco NBA Chase 110 2011-12 System to date: 4-0 (fin. series) System profit/loss: +4.00 units (fin. series) Current open series: 0 v1 Plays (A) 3-1 (B) 1-0 (C) - (D) - V2 Plays In production Games for (1/6/12): #5 New Jersey (**) @ Toronto (A) (7:05 pm EST) ** Denotes line not out at time of post

Most folk probably already know this, but 5 Dimes gives reduced odds (-105) ATS to online bettors.

Thought I'd mention it.

[J.M. Disciple]

17 UNIT LOSS still put Wallco in the positive I believe because so many series went to B or C.

Just wanted to say hi. Still reading the thread cause im waiting for the 1/3/5 results of the back test Wallco is doing.

Keep up the good work
JMD

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 4-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +4.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0


v1 Plays
(A) 3-1
(B) 1-0
(C) -
(D) -

V2 Plays
In production


Games for (1/6/12):
#5 New Jersey (+6) @ Toronto (A) (7:05 pm EST)



We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

[Wallco99]

Long way to go

[Swan4brownlow]

Let's go rockets and cavs!

[stevex]

Lets redeem ourselves tonight with Houston and the Cavs. Make up for that Bucks loss.

[Swan4brownlow]

2 C bet losses in a row really hurts, particularly considering both really should have been no plays due to players being out injured (assuming Lowry is considered Houstons best player?) i guess the moral of the story is play the system according to the rules! Back into the positive tomorrow hopefully!

[dukipl]

cavs

[jackdean33]

tips for tonights games at all?

[Wallco99]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 5-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +5.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

(1/6/12):
#5 New Jersey (+6) (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 4-1
(B) 1-0
(C) -
(D) -

V2 Plays
In production


Games for (1/7/12):
#6 Milwaukee (+10½) @ L.A. Clippers (A) (10:35 pm EST)
#7 Oklahoma City @ Houston (+4 1/2) (A) (8:05 pm EST)


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

[Kev the Brit]

B & C Bets Stats

JM B & C Bet Only Stats:

16 JM series so far, to Jan 6:

Betting to win 1 unit each series from A Bet = 16 units profit (see posts from thelimit0310 for details)

Betting to win 3 units each series from B Bet = 27 units profit.

Early days, but already the B&C bettors have 11 units of additional profit to soften the blow in the event of a series failure.

History has proved, beyond doubt, that time and money is wasted by betting from the A Bet.

I'll provide these stats weekly.

Kev

[mcmister]

Nice to see you JMD, keep dropping in from time to time.

[mcmister]

JM B & C Bet Only Stats:

16 JM series so far, to Jan 6:

Betting to win 1 unit each series from A Bet = 16 units profit (see posts from thelimit0310 for details)

Betting to win 3 units each series from B Bet = 27 units profit.

Early days, but already the B&C bettors have 11 units of additional profit to soften the blow in the event of a series failure.

History has proved, beyond doubt, that time and money is wasted by betting from the A Bet.

I'll provide these stats weekly.

Kev

Kev, to be clear... B & C bettors are betting to win 3 units for the series whether or not the series goes to game C? Buying points y/n? i.e. Bet to win 3 on B... if loss, add all of the B loss to the C game to win 3 units?

[Wilba]

Kev, to be clear... B & C bettors are betting to win 3 units for the series whether or not the series goes to game C? Buying points y/n? i.e. Bet to win 3 on B... if loss, add all of the B loss to the C game to win 3 units?

I say always buy points, as a series win which is turned into a loss by not buying points (ie Houston today) is pretty unbearable if you ask me.. Up to the individual how they choose to play it though.

Well said above Kev the Brit, I am glad someone is still pushing my bandwagon about the strength of only playing B/C for additional units! Like you say, a ten year backtest can not and will not ever be proven wrong over the long term...

[Wilba]

and yes - betting to win 3 units gross on B bet, and betting to win 3 units PLUS what you lost on the B bet if it goes to C. For me, this statistical bet weighting perfectly reflects the added emphasis that the C bet should have over the B, and the B over the A. Doing it this way basically means that of a total series risk of 100 units, you are risking 0 units on the A bet, 27 units on the B bet, and 73 units on the C bet. What unit size you choose is up to you but IMO the "100 units" that you risk on ANY series, EVER, should never be more than 10% of your total bank roll. Hope this helps.

[mcmister]

and yes - betting to win 3 units gross on B bet, and betting to win 3 units PLUS what you lost on the B bet if it goes to C. For me, this statistical bet weighting perfectly reflects the added emphasis that the C bet should have over the B, and the B over the A. Doing it this way basically means that of a total series risk of 100 units, you are risking 0 units on the A bet, 27 units on the B bet, and 73 units on the C bet. What unit size you choose is up to you but IMO the "100 units" that you risk on ANY series, EVER, should never be more than 10% of your total bank roll. Hope this helps.

Wilba & Kev, yes, it helps very much. Crystal clear.

B/C for me from here on out. I am no longer confused by the facts.

Thanks a bunch

[sthrncross]

Wallco NBA Chase 110
2011-12 System to date: 5-0 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +5.00 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 0

(1/6/12):
#5 New Jersey (+6) (A) - Win

v1 Plays
(A) 4-1
(B) 1-0
(C) -
(D) -

V2 Plays
In production


Games for (1/7/12):
#6 Milwaukee (+10½) @ L.A. Clippers (A) (10:35 pm EST)
#7 Oklahoma City @ Houston (**) (A) (8:05 pm EST)

** Denotes line not available at time of post


We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a zero point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change, but it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from my post. On occasion, we will have plays that go head-head. The system will grade ALL bets, regardless of opponents, how you wish to play these games is your choice.

Wallco, just curious why the earlier game is not an A bet and then depending on the outcome the second game could be another A or B

[petters72]

and yes - betting to win 3 units gross on B bet, and betting to win 3 units PLUS what you lost on the B bet if it goes to C. For me, this statistical bet weighting perfectly reflects the added emphasis that the C bet should have over the B, and the B over the A. Doing it this way basically means that of a total series risk of 100 units, you are risking 0 units on the A bet, 27 units on the B bet, and 73 units on the C bet. What unit size you choose is up to you but IMO the "100 units" that you risk on ANY series, EVER, should never be more than 10% of your total bank roll. Hope this helps.

Ok, I have decided to follow along with this strategy. I have tried to follow along in the thread as much as possible but I need help with my bankroll so please help.

My bank is 1250...
so I skip the A-bet and wait for the B-bet. My B-bet should then be (125*0,27 equal 33,75) right? If it comes to a C-bet, I wager 125*0,73 equal 91.25) right? 10 % of my bankroll is 33,75 plus 91,25 equal 125.
So what do you do if C-bet looses?
If You win a serie, do you calculate a new unit size or does it remain the same? If so when do you change the unite size?
Thanks a lot for the thread
Petter
Comments?

[DollarBill10]

thelimit~ there are no plays today correct?

[stevex]

Kev you can say all you want about just betting the B and C bet, but just because it started out like that this year doesn't mean it won't even out in a week or so. That's just common sense buddy, c'mon now...

The A bet can go on a run just as easily, then what? So I wouldn't come in here and tell people to NOT bet the A bet when it will all even out in the end, and that my friend is a fact.

[thelimit0310]

JM January 6

V2 CLEVELAND +10 @ Minnesota (B) WIN
V1 CLEVELAND +10 @ Minnesota (A) WIN

*Unofficial* V3 HOUSTON +9 @ Oklahoma City (C) LOSS

RESULTS PER VERSION

Version 1
A: 3-2
B: 0-2
C: 2-0

Version 2
A: 0-1
B: 1-0
C: 0-0

Version 3
A: 5-6
B: 5-1
C: 1-0

Totals
A: 8-9
B: 6-3
C: 3-0

[stevex]

No plays today?