LTA's NBA Plays

[JM92]

Love this play. Grabbed it at -4 earlier. At -5.5 now! Hope you got on early

When it was 3.5. Should've added an extra unit in the morning (PT TIME) when it was 4.

Also LTA, other game that's coming out for me, GSW + 10.5? This was at 11 and now is back to the opening line of 10.5. The warriors always fight at home, if the game is a fast paced the one, they will be able to hang with the Spurs. Just the other day they were down big early to LAC and then fought back and the crowd was with them the whole game. I don't see no reason for the Spurs to get a big blowout specially going into LA tommorow after losing the last one. I should've taken the Lakers that time and I just feel I should take the Warriors now.

[bleedtoledo]

Dirk : 43 min, Kidd 39, Terry 37 min in OT loss

[Love The Action]

Rose and deng most likely out (deng for sure) tonight according to local media sources....

[JM92]

I wanted to take the Wizards all day bu instead took Warriors + 10.5 while I could get advantage of the market which is now at 10. Guess what? Wizards down to 11.5. Damn

[bonestock]

Damn 62 pt 1st qtr. Geez.

[remypom]

Whoever missed 183 can get 196 at the half

[JM92]

Get it... even though the pace has picked up a bit now that only happened because of the strangely high shooting percentages. I was on these same play last nite and trust me that was one of the worst beats ever not only because of the shooting percentages but also because of the 25 in the last 4 minutes. tonight they are once again shooting way better than they should but these two teams are still a 30 point quarer waiting to happen.

[Crofta]

We had our chance there....7 pts through 5 minutes and they end up with 42.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 4/16/2012

0 - 1 = -1.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

134 - 117 = +10.35x

One bad quarter killed us...onto the next one. Possible multi-unit play tomorrow. 9-3 on the year in multi-unit plays so let's hope we can increase on that record. Good luck on Tuesday.

[meader99]

This is actually 4 games in 5 nights for DAL and not only is it a b2b but they are playing in Utah in higher altitude. Just to throw it out there teams that are playing their 4th game in 5 nights have not covered the spread 56.8% this season

Additionally, teams that are playing in UTH/DEN on a b2b when UTH/DEN has 1 day of rest have not covered the spread 56.2% this season. (thanks Dex!)

Is this an auto second half bet on the Jazz?

[SlickRick1382]

After last nights game with the Grizzlies, I was dead-set on putting down some money on the Hornets / Bobcats Under and missed it due to clients. Seeing that the score ended in a disgustingly 142 total makes me sick to knowing I should of killed that line ....

[JM92]

After last nights game with the Grizzlies, I was dead-set on putting down some money on the Hornets / Bobcats Under and missed it due to clients. Seeing that the score ended in a disgustingly 142 total makes me sick to knowing I should of killed that line ....

I killed the Sixers line by three points. See how that turned out. disgusting. these fuckers raptors/hawks also losing me 2 unders. how unlucky can we be?

[meader99]

Yeah, it was a whoppin 12-8 third quarter. Don't know if anybody actually showed up for the game, but if they did they deserve a refund.

[remypom]

W u 100%

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season Recap 4/16/2012

0 - 1 = -1.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

134 - 117 = +10.35x

One bad quarter killed us...onto the next one. Possible multi-unit play tomorrow. 9-3 on the year in multi-unit plays so let's hope we can increase on that record. Good luck on Tuesday.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 4/17/2012

Play #1

Pacers/76'ers under (185)(-120) 2x (Locked)

I'm not going to take a chance on a multiple unit play of getting "hooked". The number 185 is one of the 20 most common final scores in the NBA and we all know how "sharp" the bookmakers can be. I can't recommend that others pay -120 on an NBA total, but I am buying the insurance on this one. With Pinny starting to juice the under 184.5 at -109, a move to 184 may not be far off and there's no reason to take a chance. Nevertheless, I don't think it even matters I expect this game to stay somewhere below the 180 that my model projects. The key to this game is that both offenses are relatively slow-paced, jump shooting teams, while both defenses excel against the jump shot. Both offenses take a large percentage of their shots from 10-23 feet from the basket and that is exactly where these defenses rank top 5 in FG%. In addition, even though Indy has been scoring quite a bit lately, they remain relatively inefficient on offense and these high scoring games have come against weaker defenses. Philly presents a unique challenge in their top 3 defense. Indy itself has a solid defense ranked 9th in DEFF. Both teams had high scoring games on Monday and I expect the opposite on Tuesday as both offenses can just fall into a black hole at times with very poor shooting percentages against upper echelon defenses. I am hoping the refs are released before any steam so I may be able to add to this play tomorrow if I can still pay the -120 for 185. I expect this one to close at 183, but my model has this at 180. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

[Pick'nParlays]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 4/17/2012

Play #1

Pacers/76'ers under (185)(-120) 2x (Locked)

I'm not going to take a chance on a multiple unit play of getting "hooked". The number 185 is one of the 20 most common final scores in the NBA and we all know how "sharp" the bookmakers can be. I can't recommend that others pay -120 on an NBA total, but I am buying the insurance on this one. With Pinny starting to juice the under 184.5 at -109, a move to 184 may not be far off and there's no reason to take a chance. Nevertheless, I don't think it even matters I expect this game to stay somewhere below the 180 that my model projects. The key to this game is that both offenses are relatively slow-paced, jump shooting teams, while both defenses excel against the jump shot. Both offenses take a large percentage of their shots from 10-23 feet from the basket and that is exactly where these defenses rank top 5 in FG%. In addition, even though Indy has been scoring quite a bit lately, they remain relatively inefficient on offense and these high scoring games have come against weaker defenses. Philly presents a unique challenge in their top 3 defense. Indy itself has a solid defense ranked 9th in DEFF. Both teams had high scoring games on Monday and I expect the opposite on Tuesday as both offenses can just fall into a black hole at times with very poor shooting percentages against upper echelon defenses. I am hoping the refs are released before any steam so I may be able to add to this play tomorrow if I can still pay the -120 for 185. I expect this one to close at 183, but my model has this at 180. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

get it LTA

[Catchn_Picks]

Bol lta!

[Love The Action]

We have good ref assignments with callahan, stafford and richardson. I wont add to the play now, because its already down to 184 as we predicted. However, if it goes back up I may add another taste. Good luck tonight.

[JM92]

Thanks for the play LTA. I like it as usual.

I think im going to pass on capping games tonight, really starting to feel down about this. Might take in time to just go back to the old ways of enjoying games by what they are at least until thursday.

[Les_Nuts]

Thanks for the play LTA. I like it as usual.

I think im going to pass on capping games tonight, really starting to feel down about this. Might take in time to just go back to the old ways of enjoying games by what they are at least until thursday.

Last night was tough. We killed the closer with Philly but just played garbage, nothing you can do about that, you did your part. I got a real bad beat with Utah -3.5 as Delonte West hits a garbage 3 with 1 second left with Dallas down 5. Similar thing to how we pushed with Dallas the other night. Taking a break may be a good idea but make sure you keep at it as seem to be making the right plays, GL tonight

[speez11]

Safe to play at 184u or try to wait out to see if it gets pushed back up?

[dmitean]

Took it big last night already. Teams playing their second leg of B2B2B are with 9 Under results from the 10 games played this year.
Hope we get this one!

[SlickRick1382]

Safe to play at 184u or try to wait out to see if it gets pushed back up?

He says his model predicts a score of 180 and that the market should close around 182-183 if I'm not mistaken so should still be safe to play .....

[speez11]

He says his model predicts a score of 180 and that the market should close around 182-183 if I'm not mistaken so should still be safe to play .....

Thanks for the clarification! Sounds good to me

[meader99]

Thanks for the play LTA. I like it as usual.

I think im going to pass on capping games tonight, really starting to feel down about this. Might take in time to just go back to the old ways of enjoying games by what they are at least until thursday.

Keep your head up. I'm a firm believer that things even out over the long haul between bad beats and lucky breaks. It sure seems like the bad beats streaks hang around, but you always have to try and forge ahead to the next day. Not to high on the wins, not to low on the losses. I would never tell anyone what to do with their money, so if you take a break, enjoy it, otherwise gl on the grind ahead.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 4/17/2012

Play #1

Pacers/76'ers under (185)(-120) 2x (Locked)

I'm not going to take a chance on a multiple unit play of getting "hooked". The number 185 is one of the 20 most common final scores in the NBA and we all know how "sharp" the bookmakers can be. I can't recommend that others pay -120 on an NBA total, but I am buying the insurance on this one. With Pinny starting to juice the under 184.5 at -109, a move to 184 may not be far off and there's no reason to take a chance. Nevertheless, I don't think it even matters I expect this game to stay somewhere below the 180 that my model projects. The key to this game is that both offenses are relatively slow-paced, jump shooting teams, while both defenses excel against the jump shot. Both offenses take a large percentage of their shots from 10-23 feet from the basket and that is exactly where these defenses rank top 5 in FG%. In addition, even though Indy has been scoring quite a bit lately, they remain relatively inefficient on offense and these high scoring games have come against weaker defenses. Philly presents a unique challenge in their top 3 defense. Indy itself has a solid defense ranked 9th in DEFF. Both teams had high scoring games on Monday and I expect the opposite on Tuesday as both offenses can just fall into a black hole at times with very poor shooting percentages against upper echelon defenses. I am hoping the refs are released before any steam so I may be able to add to this play tomorrow if I can still pay the -120 for 185. I expect this one to close at 183, but my model has this at 180. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #2

Celtics/Knicks under (183) 2x (Locked)

Its time to step out a bit as I think we have a high probability of cashing both plays today so I am rolling with two multiple unit plays. Although not as much value in this play, I rank it right up there with Play #1. No time for a full writeup, but just like with the first play, I think the books are tipping their hands with this low number despite the fact that the previous game went way over on a total set higher than this one. The knicks are playing great defense and a slow pace which is exaxtly what we want in this game. The refs are also favorable. I have this game set at a hair under 180 giving us some nice value and I am rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

[Vasco]

I like the play with both teams playing great defense and playing to the under a lot lately. I wanted to play the Knicks/Heat under the other night and regretted not doing so. This one could be a slow paced playoff-like game. Last game they played was around 200 at the end of regulation, but back in February they played a 91-89 game. I agree this game will be more like the latter.

[JM92]

Keep your head up. I'm a firm believer that things even out over the long haul between bad beats and lucky breaks. It sure seems like the bad beats streaks hang around, but you always have to try and forge ahead to the next day. Not to high on the wins, not to low on the losses. I would never tell anyone what to do with their money, so if you take a break, enjoy it, otherwise gl on the grind ahead.

Thanks for your post and also thanks to Les Nuts. I did only say I was doing this until thursday, only two days and to be fair, my biggest lean of last night was the pacers/76ers under so as soon as I got lta units on that one I didn't have anything more. I did reconsider though and I'm now looking at the card. I agree that it all evens out in the end, I've just been betting for a year or so now and seriously doing so for 4 months, so I'm just yet to be proven of that.

With this said, I leaned to the Pistons and the Spurs as well. Both those lines but to what they were and now I'm actually second guessing. I though Kobe was playing because the line seemed to low for me without him but obviously they wouldn't even be favorites if he played probably. I don't see the Spurs dealing well with the LA size once again but, and this is what most people don't recognize, that last game did end up 32-32 in points in the paint.

[CheeseHead]

All of the late money going on the over in the Indiana/Philly game...all the way up to 184.5 again when it was just at 183..

[Les_Nuts]

All of the late money going on the over in the Indiana/Philly game...all the way up to 184.5 again when it was just at 183..

Could be sharps buying the total up for a better number on the under, like what happened to one of our Hawks totals a while ago. Not sure though

[CheeseHead]

Could be sharps buying the total up for a better number on the under, like what happened to one of our Hawks totals a while ago. Not sure though

That's what I'm hoping for...still don't like to see when it happens though

[alamo]

That's what I'm hoping for...still don't like to see when it happens though

We still beat the closing line by .5pt which is all that matters

[CheeseHead]

Tied it you mean..we bought a .5 point to get to 185. You can still do that at the current line..

[Les_Nuts]

We still beat the closing line by .5pt which is all that matters

That was actually the opener as we had to buy the half point. I expected it go back down but it hasn't. Anyway lets see how the game plays out, I feel a +4 unit night

[dlunc3]

wow... how disappointing was that first quarter in philly? the score was 2-2 five minutes into the quarter... then the teams combined for 5.7 points per minute the rest of the quarter