LTA's NBA Plays

[Sport_Fish]

That's the stupidest idea I've ever heard. Giving the winner of the DUNK CONTEST a car and a million bucks? Yeah right.

Why is that stupid...u do realize a car and a million bucks is pocket change compared to what kind of money this shit generates.

[absolutkaos]

well it looks like the U is starting to steam now....down to 283.5...

East all the way to -4.0 now though

[Speedy88]

Lol at ppl trying to analyze and cap this game.

I'm thinking of taking the 1H over just because if the game gets close near the end we may just see some defense.

[apurvaas]

Lol at ppl trying to analyze and cap this game.

I'm thinking of taking the 1H over just because if the game gets close near the end we may just see some defense.

It was a tweet from b Leonard from pre game lol

[MrXYZ]

I got a small action play (x0.25) on the under 283.5.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 All Star Game Weekend

ALL ACTION PLAYS AND NOT FOR RECORDS WIN OR LOSE (recommended 1/4 of normal 1x)

Play #1

Rising Star Challenge over (271)(-120) (Locked)

This one is going to move. Great chance for a middle if you so choose. More to come. Good luck.

Play #2

Dunk Contest

Derrick Williams (+300) (Recommended 1/8th of your normal 1x)

Chase Buddinger (+200) (Recommended 1/8th of your normal 1x)

Our goal is to make profit and I think we accomplish that by playing both Williams and Buddinger. This dunk contest will be decided by fans on twitter so we have to put ourselves in their mindset. I think they vote for name value in Williams and novelty value in Buddinger. Williams is known from the NCAA tournament run last year and Buddinger will identify with many of pimply faced 12 year old suburban-born fans that will be voting. Williams is just as athletic as George and Evans, but may be able to have more dunking options because of his advantage in height. Buddinger is an athletic white-guy and that novelty always sparks some interest. At odds of +300 and +200, the books are giving us the ability to play both and still come out with a nice profit. I am rolling with Williams and Buddinger and I expect one of them to win and ensure us a profitable Saturday. Good luck.

Play #3

All-Star Game

Western Conference ML (+160) (Recommended 1/4 of your normal 1x)

For my third action play of All-Star Weekend, I am going to tail Suicidekings and play the Western Conference on the moneyline. I have been out all day with the fam having a great time and don't feel like looking into this game. I agree with SK that there is value at +160 in a game neither team will want to lose because of pride. SK is one of the best at spotting ML value in the NBA and I trust his perspective, so I am rolling with the Western Conference for 1x. Good luck.

[chief42]

What was that performance before tip off? Nikki Minaj is supposed to be entertainment?-was scary

[mikea33]

I feel so smart I locked this in before you did.

Makes me feel accomplished

[Love The Action]

What was that performance before tip off-was scary

I don't know...turned on for Mary J. Blige's national anthem and it was great. I really love that she did in a traditional manner rather than trying to butcher it by changing it up. I abhor singers that destroy our national anthem by trying to deviate too much from the way it was meant to be performed. There's a few songs you stick to the script with and the national anthem is one of them.

Say what you want about Whitney Houston, but her version in the 92 super bowl was definitely one of the best I ever heard.

However, there is no doubt that the the best national anthem can be heard in Chicago at Blackhawks games where Jim Corelison's version gives you goose-bumps.

Oh well, enough about that, God Bless America and let's make some money

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Is it just me or do they look more competitive than the past couple of seasons ?

[mikea33]

They do and dont. in the halfcourt set they seem to be playing defense, but on the break no one is getting back. i think the Under should hit

[Roto97]

They do and dont. in the halfcourt set they seem to be playing defense, but on the break no one is getting back. i think the Under should hit

Damn it...Nope. Oh well only had a small amount on it.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 All Star Game Weekend

ALL ACTION PLAYS AND NOT FOR RECORDS WIN OR LOSE (recommended 1/4 of normal 1x)

Play #1

Rising Star Challenge over (271)(-120) (Locked) WINNER

This one is going to move. Great chance for a middle if you so choose. More to come. Good luck.

Play #2

Dunk Contest LOSS

Derrick Williams (+300) (Recommended 1/8th of your normal 1x)

Chase Buddinger (+200) (Recommended 1/8th of your normal 1x)

Our goal is to make profit and I think we accomplish that by playing both Williams and Buddinger. This dunk contest will be decided by fans on twitter so we have to put ourselves in their mindset. I think they vote for name value in Williams and novelty value in Buddinger. Williams is known from the NCAA tournament run last year and Buddinger will identify with many of pimply faced 12 year old suburban-born fans that will be voting. Williams is just as athletic as George and Evans, but may be able to have more dunking options because of his advantage in height. Buddinger is an athletic white-guy and that novelty always sparks some interest. At odds of +300 and +200, the books are giving us the ability to play both and still come out with a nice profit. I am rolling with Williams and Buddinger and I expect one of them to win and ensure us a profitable Saturday. Good luck.

Play #3

All-Star Game

Western Conference ML (+160) (Recommended 1/4 of your normal 1x)WINNER

For my third action play of All-Star Weekend, I am going to tail Suicidekings and play the Western Conference on the moneyline. I have been out all day with the fam having a great time and don't feel like looking into this game. I agree with SK that there is value at +160 in a game neither team will want to lose because of pride. SK is one of the best at spotting ML value in the NBA and I trust his perspective, so I am rolling with the Western Conference for 1x. Good luck.

Here's to another profitable weekend. Time to get to work on Tuesday's card. GL

[BluexBlue]

Thank you, LTA

[suicidekings]

Here's to another profitable weekend. Time to get to work on Tuesday's card. GL

It was actually so scary back in the summer when it was really looking like we might lose the entire season to the lockout. Now to apply everything we learned in the first half to making money in the second half. I'm going to be going light for the first couple of days back though. Really weird things happen in those first two or three games back after the players have had a few days off.

Best of luck in the second half, LTA

[WVU9494]

What's the record for the nba season on lta's picks?

[bmur714]

What's the record for the nba season on lta's picks?

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 2/23/2012 Recap

1 - 0 = +1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

84 - 67 = +17.95x

He did not count All Star weekend towards his record but he was 2-2 = +.25x

[jas19illini]

However, there is no doubt that the the best national anthem can be heard in Chicago at Blackhawks games where Jim Corelison's version gives you goose-bumps.

That is the God darn truth. He is amazing, especially in person.

[Trivial]

LTA : just got my copy of Conquering Risk - used SBR points to buy a copy so it was "free". Great book. Thanks for the recommendation. Learning so much from the book and yourself. Really appreciate it.

[ClausensHands]

Kicking myself this morning for not pulling the trigger on the West -1.5 +180. Grats to yall who got on the ml

[Love The Action]

Who are the top 5 nba chmpionship contenders?

[Love The Action]

When your guys' books open up Tuesday's sides and totals, please cut and paste them here so we can get a jump on the rest of the market.

Please also remember to be conservative with the amount of plays immediately following the break as you often see inconsistent play and unpredictable results the first couple days back. GL.

[BigBurk]

Who are the top 5 nba chmpionship contenders?

Heat, Bulls, Thunder, In no particular order.

Can't even name two others..

[pokerwhiz90]

call me crazy but i think the bulls are going to beat the heat in the ecf - if you guys saw the last game, rip and brewer did a terrific job on wade who went 4/16. mind you deng didn't play this game so lebron was guarded by taj gibson and even noah at times, but mostly by brewer.

lebron will end up guarding drose, so basically its a tale of two benches - which i tip my cap off to the bulls, defensively and offensively. the best defensive player on the heat bench is battier, who isn't bad, but the bulls are much more superior individually and team bench defense wise

[R19]

Who are the top 5 nba chmpionship contenders?

Miami, Chicago, Oklahoma City, San Antonio, and Dallas. New York and both LA teams could surge and there should be some trades that stir things up before the playoffs roll around.

[Les_Nuts]

When your guys' books open up Tuesday's sides and totals, please cut and paste them here so we can get a jump on the rest of the market.

Please also remember to be conservative with the amount of plays immediately following the break as you often see inconsistent play and unpredictable results the first couple days back. GL.

Here are the opening sides from Pinnacle:

Tue 2/28 701 Boston Celtics -3.5 1.971
04:05 PM 702 Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5 1.935

Tue 2/28 703 Golden State Warriors +5.5 1.952
04:05 PM 704 Indiana Pacers -5.5 1.952

Tue 2/28 705 Philadelphia 76ers -3 2.000
04:35 PM 706 Detroit Pistons +3 1.909

Tue 2/28 707 Toronto Raptors +9.5 1.952
05:05 PM 708 Houston Rockets -9.5 1.952

Tue 2/28 709 New Orleans Hornets +12.5 1.952
05:05 PM 710 Chicago Bulls -12.5 1.952

Tue 2/28 711 Washington Wizards +8 1.909
05:05 PM 712 Milwaukee Bucks -8 2.000

Tue 2/28 713 New Jersey Nets +10.5 1.952
05:35 PM 714 Dallas Mavericks -10.5 1.952

Tue 2/28 715 Utah Jazz +2 2.000
07:05 PM 716 Sacramento Kings -2 1.909

Tue 2/28 717 Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5 1.952
07:35 PM 718 Los Angeles Clippers -6.5 1.952


Sorry odds are decimal, 1.952 is equivalent to -105

[smarotta09]

heat bulls knicks OKC spurs ... lakers could jump in there with a move and take over the knicks .. no way the bulls/knicks beat the heat in the finals...to much fire power, lebron shuts down rose, they lose .. heat/spurs in finals

[Les_Nuts]

A few totals aswell:

TOTAL POINTS MORE
Tue 2/28 701 Boston Celtics Over 184.5 1.952
04:05 PM 702 Cleveland Cavaliers Under 184.5 1.952

Tue 2/28 703 Golden State Warriors Over 202 1.952
04:05 PM 704 Indiana Pacers Under 202 1.952

Tue 2/28 705 Philadelphia 76ers Over 182 1.952
04:35 PM 706 Detroit Pistons Under 182 1.952

Tue 2/28 707 Toronto Raptors Over 190 2.000
05:05 PM 708 Houston Rockets Under 190 1.909

Tue 2/28 709 New Orleans Hornets Over 179 1.952
05:05 PM 710 Chicago Bulls Under 179 1.952

Tue 2/28 711 Washington Wizards Over 200 1.952
05:05 PM 712 Milwaukee Bucks Under 200 1.952

[JM92]

Who are the top 5 nba chmpionship contenders?

Hmm..

1. Miami heat
2. Miami Heat
3. Miami Heat
4. Miami Heat
5... The Mavs?

Honestly, I just cant see anyone beat the Heat. Not the Bulls for sure, sorry LTA hope you still let me into your picks eheh. They're playing amazing D, runin' everyone off the court and hey, when it comes to their shady half-court sets, they got Lebron, Bosh and Wade, so they will probably be fine just like last year. And guess what, 2 other big names peoples always talk about for a title: Thunder and Bulls. They might be even worse than Miami in what concerns half-court offense, and while the Thunder have 1x1 power with Durant, westbrook and Harden their defense is not good enough. And the Bulls only have Rose.

I got a couple outsiders in the West, I really feel like the Clippers and the Spurs motivated by last years short-comings might make a big run, but in the end I have it Bulls vs Heat and Mavericks vs Thunder (if possible). Just don't see it any other way. I've actually guessed right the 08, 09, and 11' champions so. And I had Boston to take it home in 2010 and we all know how that ended up.

[pokerwhiz90]

under chicago against new orleans looks like the best play on the board - chicago's defense will be rested, drose and rip are both going to play, cj watson is coming back so no more john lucas midget playing defense

[pokerwhiz90]

Hmm..

1. Miami heat
2. Miami Heat
3. Miami Heat
4. Miami Heat
5... The Mavs?

Honestly, I just cant see anyone beat the Heat. Not the Bulls for sure, sorry LTA hope you still let me into your picks eheh. They're playing amazing D, runin' everyone off the court and hey, when it comes to their shady half-court sets, they got Lebron, Bosh and Wade, so they will probably be fine just like last year. And guess what, 2 other big names peoples always talk about for a title: Thunder and Bulls. They might be even worse than Miami in what concerns half-court offense, and while the Thunder have 1x1 power with Durant, westbrook and Harden their defense is not good enough. And the Bulls only have Rose.

I got a couple outsiders in the West, I really feel like the Clippers and the Spurs motivated by last years short-comings might make a big run, but in the end I have it Bulls vs Heat and Mavericks vs Thunder (if possible). Just don't see it any other way. I've actually guessed right the 08, 09, and 11' champions so. And I had Boston to take it home in 2010 and we all know how that ended up.

did you even watch the bulls/heat game? luol didn't play and miami had all 3 starters - it was a freakn close game - and lebron was on fire, without arguably the best lebron defender in the league..... come on man, the nba is full of professionals, and the bulls can definitely run with miami

[NOREGRETS]

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%" align="center"><tbody><tr><td class="LeagueTitle" colspan="6" align="left">NBA</td><td colspan="2" align="right">Lines From:02-27-2012 14:57:13</td></tr><tr class="GameHeader"><td width="3%">
</td><td width="10%" align="left">Date</td><td width="5%">#</td><td colspan="2" width="30%" align="left">Team</td><td align="right">Spread</td><td align="right">Total</td><td align="right">M Line</td></tr><tr class="GameBanner" align="center"><td colspan="8">NBA - Feb 28</td></tr><tr class="TrGameOdd"><td align="center"></td><td align="left">Feb 28</td><td>701</td><td colspan="2" align="left">CELTICS (BOS)</td><td align="right">-3½-110<input name="text_" value="0_553864_-3.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">o184½-110<input name="text_" value="2_553864_-184.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameOdd"><td align="left">
</td><td align="left"> 6:05 PM </td><td>702</td><td colspan="2" align="left">CAVALIERS (CLE)</td><td align="right">+3½-110<input name="text_" value="1_553864_3.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">u184½-110<input name="text_" value="3_553864_184.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameEven"><td align="center"></td><td align="left">Feb 28</td><td>703</td><td colspan="2" align="left">WARRIORS (GST)</td><td align="right">+5½-110<input name="text_" value="0_553865_5.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">o202-110<input name="text_" value="2_553865_-202_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameEven"><td align="left">
</td><td align="left"> 6:05 PM </td><td>704</td><td colspan="2" align="left">PACERS (IND)</td><td align="right">-5½-110<input name="text_" value="1_553865_-5.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">u202-110<input name="text_" value="3_553865_202_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameOdd"><td align="center"></td><td align="left">Feb 28</td><td>705</td><td colspan="2" align="left">76ERS (PHI)</td><td align="right">-3-110<input name="text_" value="0_553866_-3_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">o182-110<input name="text_" value="2_553866_-182_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameOdd"><td align="left">
</td><td align="left"> 6:35 PM </td><td>706</td><td colspan="2" align="left">PISTONS (DET)</td><td align="right">+3-110<input name="text_" value="1_553866_3_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">u182-110<input name="text_" value="3_553866_182_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameEven"><td align="center"></td><td align="left">Feb 28</td><td>707</td><td colspan="2" align="left">RAPTORS (TOR)</td><td align="right">+9½-110<input name="text_" value="0_553867_9.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">o190½-110<input name="text_" value="2_553867_-190.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameEven"><td align="left">
</td><td align="left"> 7:05 PM </td><td>708</td><td colspan="2" align="left">ROCKETS (HOU)</td><td align="right">-9½-110<input name="text_" value="1_553867_-9.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">u190½-110<input name="text_" value="3_553867_190.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameOdd"><td align="center"></td><td align="left">Feb 28</td><td>709</td><td colspan="2" align="left">HORNETS (NO)</td><td align="right">+12½-110<input name="text_" value="0_553868_12.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">o179-110<input name="text_" value="2_553868_-179_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameOdd"><td align="left">
</td><td align="left"> 7:05 PM </td><td>710</td><td colspan="2" align="left">BULLS (CHI)</td><td align="right">-12½-110<input name="text_" value="1_553868_-12.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">u179-110<input name="text_" value="3_553868_179_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameEven"><td align="center"></td><td align="left">Feb 28</td><td>711</td><td colspan="2" align="left">WIZARDS (WAS)</td><td align="right">+8-110<input name="text_" value="0_553869_8_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">o200-110<input name="text_" value="2_553869_-200_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameEven"><td align="left">
</td><td align="left"> 7:05 PM </td><td>712</td><td colspan="2" align="left">BUCKS (MIL)</td><td align="right">-8-110<input name="text_" value="1_553869_-8_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">u200-110<input name="text_" value="3_553869_200_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameOdd"><td align="center"></td><td align="left">Feb 28</td><td>713</td><td colspan="2" align="left">NETS (NJ)</td><td align="right">+10½-110<input name="text_" value="0_553870_10.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">o187½-110<input name="text_" value="2_553870_-187.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameOdd"><td align="left">
</td><td align="left"> 7:35 PM </td><td>714</td><td colspan="2" align="left">MAVERICKS (DAL)</td><td align="right">-10½-110<input name="text_" value="1_553870_-10.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">u187½-110<input name="text_" value="3_553870_187.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameEven"><td align="center"></td><td align="left">Feb 28</td><td>715</td><td colspan="2" align="left">JAZZ (UTA)</td><td align="right">+2-110<input name="text_" value="0_553871_2_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">o203-110<input name="text_" value="2_553871_-203_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameEven"><td align="left">
</td><td align="left"> 9:05 PM </td><td>716</td><td colspan="2" align="left">KINGS (SAC)</td><td align="right">-2-110<input name="text_" value="1_553871_-2_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">u203-110<input name="text_" value="3_553871_203_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameOdd"><td align="center"></td><td align="left">Feb 28</td><td>717</td><td colspan="2" align="left">TIMBERWOLVES (MIN)</td><td align="right">+6½-110<input name="text_" value="0_553872_6.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">o196½-110<input name="text_" value="2_553872_-196.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr><tr class="TrGameOdd"><td align="left">
</td><td align="left"> 9:35 PM </td><td>718</td><td colspan="2" align="left">CLIPPERS (LAC)</td><td align="right">-6½-110<input name="text_" value="1_553872_-6.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">u196½-110<input name="text_" value="3_553872_196.5_-110" type="checkbox"></td><td align="right">
</td></tr></tbody></table>

[bmur714]

<table id="tblBasketballNBAGame" class="lines" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="auto"><tbody><tr><th colspan="3" class="linesHeader" align="LEFT">5 Dimes

NBA Basketball </th><th class="linesHeader" align="LEFT">Spread</th><th class="linesHeader" align="LEFT"> </th><th class="linesHeader" align="LEFT">Total Points</th><th colspan="2" class="linesHeader" nowrap="nowrap" align="LEFT"> </th></tr><tr class="linesSubHeader" valign="bottom"><td colspan="8"><small>Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers</small></td></tr><tr class="linesRow" valign="bottom"><td>Tue 2/28</td><td> </td><td>701 Boston Celtics</td><td><input id="editx" name="S1_0" size="4" maxlength="5"> -3½ -110</td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L1_0" size="4" maxlength="5"> o184½ -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesRowBot" valign="top"><td>7:05PM </td><td> </td><td>702 Cleveland Cavaliers</td><td><input id="editx" name="S2_0" size="4" maxlength="5"> +3½ -110 </td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L2_0" size="4" maxlength="5"> u184½ -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesSubHeader" valign="bottom"><td colspan="8"><small>Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers</small></td></tr><tr class="linesRow" valign="bottom"><td>Tue 2/28</td><td> </td><td>703 Golden State Warriors</td><td><input id="editx" name="S1_1" size="4" maxlength="5"> +5½ -110</td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L1_1" size="4" maxlength="5"> o202 -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesRowBot" valign="top"><td>7:05PM </td><td> </td><td>704 Indiana Pacers</td><td><input id="editx" name="S2_1" size="4" maxlength="5"> -5½ -110 </td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L2_1" size="4" maxlength="5"> u202 -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesSubHeader" valign="bottom"><td colspan="8"><small>Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons</small></td></tr><tr class="linesRow" valign="bottom"><td>Tue 2/28</td><td> </td><td>705 Philadelphia 76ers</td><td><input id="editx" name="S1_2" size="4" maxlength="5"> -3 -110</td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L1_2" size="4" maxlength="5"> o182 -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesRowBot" valign="top"><td>7:35PM </td><td> </td><td>706 Detroit Pistons</td><td><input id="editx" name="S2_2" size="4" maxlength="5"> +3 -110 </td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L2_2" size="4" maxlength="5"> u182 -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesSubHeader" valign="bottom"><td colspan="8"><small>Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets</small></td></tr><tr class="linesRow" valign="bottom"><td>Tue 2/28</td><td> </td><td>707 Toronto Raptors</td><td><input id="editx" name="S1_3" size="4" maxlength="5"> +9½ -110</td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L1_3" size="4" maxlength="5"> o190½ -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesRowBot" valign="top"><td>8:05PM </td><td> </td><td>708 Houston Rockets</td><td><input id="editx" name="S2_3" size="4" maxlength="5"> -9½ -110 </td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L2_3" size="4" maxlength="5"> u190½ -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesSubHeader" valign="bottom"><td colspan="8"><small>New Orleans Hornets at Chicago Bulls</small></td></tr><tr class="linesRow" valign="bottom"><td>Tue 2/28</td><td> </td><td>709 New Orleans Hornets</td><td><input id="editx" name="S1_4" size="4" maxlength="5"> +12½ -110</td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L1_4" size="4" maxlength="5"> o179½ -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesRowBot" valign="top"><td>8:05PM </td><td> </td><td>710 Chicago Bulls</td><td><input id="editx" name="S2_4" size="4" maxlength="5"> -12½ -110 </td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L2_4" size="4" maxlength="5"> u179½ -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesSubHeader" valign="bottom"><td colspan="8"><small>Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks</small></td></tr><tr class="linesRow" valign="bottom"><td>Tue 2/28</td><td> </td><td>711 Washington Wizards</td><td><input id="editx" name="S1_5" size="4" maxlength="5"> +7½ -110</td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L1_5" size="4" maxlength="5"> o200 -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesRowBot" valign="top"><td>8:05PM </td><td> </td><td>712 Milwaukee Bucks</td><td><input id="editx" name="S2_5" size="4" maxlength="5"> -7½ -110 </td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L2_5" size="4" maxlength="5"> u200 -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesSubHeader" valign="bottom"><td colspan="8"><small>New Jersey Nets at Dallas Mavericks</small></td></tr><tr class="linesRow" valign="bottom"><td>Tue 2/28</td><td> </td><td>713 New Jersey Nets</td><td><input id="editx" name="S1_6" size="4" maxlength="5"> +10½ -110</td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L1_6" size="4" maxlength="5"> o187½ -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesRowBot" valign="top"><td>8:35PM </td><td> </td><td>714 Dallas Mavericks</td><td><input id="editx" name="S2_6" size="4" maxlength="5"> -10½ -110 </td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L2_6" size="4" maxlength="5"> u187½ -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesSubHeader" valign="bottom"><td colspan="8"><small>Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings</small></td></tr><tr class="linesRow" valign="bottom"><td>Tue 2/28</td><td> </td><td>715 Utah Jazz</td><td><input id="editx" name="S1_7" size="4" maxlength="5"> +2 -110</td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L1_7" size="4" maxlength="5"> o203 -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesRowBot" valign="top"><td>10:05PM </td><td> </td><td>716 Sacramento Kings</td><td><input id="editx" name="S2_7" size="4" maxlength="5"> -2 -110 </td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L2_7" size="4" maxlength="5"> u203 -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesSubHeader" valign="bottom"><td colspan="8"><small>Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Clippers</small></td></tr><tr class="linesRow" valign="bottom"><td>Tue 2/28</td><td> </td><td>717 Minnesota Timberwolves</td><td><input id="editx" name="S1_8" size="4" maxlength="5"> +6½ -110</td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L1_8" size="4" maxlength="5"> o196½ -110 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr class="linesRowBot" valign="top"><td>10:35PM </td><td> </td><td>718 Los Angeles Clippers</td><td><input id="editx" name="S2_8" size="4" maxlength="5"> -6½ -110 </td><td> </td><td><input id="editx" name="L2_8" size="4" maxlength="5"> u196½ -110 </td><td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>

[fitguy67]

FWIW...


a quik way to convert from decimal (D) to american-style (A) odds

If D>=2.000 A=(D-1)*100 [ie. subtract one from the decimal odds and move the decimal two places to the right]

If D < 2.000 A= -100/(D-1) [ divide 100 by "one less than the decimal odds" and put a negative sign in front]

______________________

Again FWIW, one extremely useful feature of the Decimal format is that

1/D ["the reciprocal of the decimal odds"] tell us the implied win% of this bet

eg. for plays at -130 --> D=1.7692, so probability of the bet winning, implied by the book is 56.53% [1/(1.7692)]

meaning any win percentage above 56.53% on any number of -130 bets would beat the book, any win% less than that would lose.

(my two cents...actually 6 sbr-points...worth for the day)

__________________

So if you're looking for value, estimate as accurately as possible the % of times the event you like would occur if it could be played many times in identical "parallel universes"....then take the reciprocal of your estimated win%...that's the odds that you'd expect to "break even" with...and look for an "edge" =a book's decimal odds being considerably higher than what you just calculated...

<(your perceived win%)/(book's implied win%)-1> or equivalently [(book's decimal odds)/("your" perceived decimal odds) - 1]** tells you your expected yield if you took that bet repeatedly

btw, the %-edge that you reckon you have on this play at this odds is roughly (but not exactly...but close enough for my purposes here) equivalent to the full "kelly criterion" optimum bet-size..a bet with a bigger % edge=>a bigger bet...so when someone savvy like LTA puts on a 1.5x or 2x play you can bet his perceived edge is 50% or 100% larger than his usual play (eg. 4.5% or 6% perceived edge vs his usual 3%-ish edge for regular plays)...whether quantified explicitly like this or not, it is such considerations that constitute differing levels of "confidence"

Example time... you cap a game to win 60% of the time (ie. "your" implied break-even odds are thus 1/0.60=1.6667 or -150...the book odds are 1.7692 or -130 (ie. the book "figures" the probability to be 56.53%)...your perceived edge can easily be calculated as the ratio of the win% 60/56.53 less 1= a very attractive 6.1% (or alternatively, and even more handily...which is what I like about decimal odds format by 1.7692/1.6667).<you can="" also="" calculate="" this="" conveniently="" using="" decimal="" (but="" not="" american="" odds...thus,="" 1.7692="" 1.6667="" less="" 1="6.1%" again="">

side note: a full-kelly bettor would pound this at just about 6% bank (the optimal full-kelly percentage is under most circumstances very nearly the same thing as the edge that can be calculated as a simple ratio (of win%'s or of decimal odds as above)...a more conservative long-term more "crash-resistant" approach is a fraction of this edge...eg. a half-kelly bet would be 3%of bank, quarter-kelly 1.5% of the bank for this bet

nuff said for 6 measly sbr points (30c in "street value)...lol
</you>

[JM92]

did you even watch the bulls/heat game? luol didn't play and miami had all 3 starters - it was a freakn close game - and lebron was on fire, without arguably the best lebron defender in the league..... come on man, the nba is full of professionals, and the bulls can definitely run with miami

They lost 4-1 last season. Deng didn't play because he's got a bad injury that's not going anywhere soon. Im not saying they can't make it a series, I just don't see how they win it.