LTA's NBA Plays

[Love The Action]

i dont think anyone has ever used the phrase "odom to much down low" before...personally i think this the kind of meaningless gm bron will shine in, no Chandler is a huge deal and i just dont think mavs gel all that fast...honestly feel like im flipping coins in 1st of season so hell if i really know but im already down on Heat-4... bol

Agreed. At this point, -4 is a really bad number but still certainly coverable for the Heat. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Wow, the Clippers total is down to 208. As I stated in my writeup above, that is where I have this game set. Even if you didn't get my number of 214 and the 6 points of value, any number at 210 or better is a great number for this play and should cash.

The Bulls are now -4.5 and we got down at +3 and a PK. Those are great numbers and we area also way ahead of the market with that play.

We should kill the closing numbers with both plays.

[Overbettor]

Merry christmas Lta. I am curious as to your thoughts on the knicks/celtics game being that I don't know the first thing about nba ball but want to take a stab at it.

[Exxpresso]

BOL LTA and Merry Xmas
Do you like the Knicks today ?

I missed your Bulls +3 play and will now take your teaser.

[brownie11228]

Good luck. Instead of the teaser you could parlay mia/chi ML for better odds.

[BIGPOPPA144]

watch the game he has!!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 12/25/2011

Play #1

Bulls (+3) 1x and Bulls (PK) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)

I love the Bulls in this spot and it's all about continuity. The Bulls have been quiet in the free agent market, instead deciding to tweak the team and make it better by adding Hamilton. Led by Rose, the Bulls are the silent assassin of top caliber teams that is always underrated compared to the Heat, Lakers, etc. However, on this opening day, I expect the Bulls to run all over the Lake Show. As I said, this one is about continuity of players and knowing how to play together. The Bulls have that, while the Lakers are a mess right now. Players are on eggshells in fear of being traded and even if they made a blockbuster trade, they won't have enough time before Christmas Day to come together as a team in order to beat the Bulls. The Lakers are already without Odom because of their off-season mess and McRobers is nothing more than a role player -- he does not possess anywhere near the skillset to replace Odom. The Bulls stay humble and quiet led by Rose and are just getting ready to attack. Without Andrew Bynum, the Lakers will struggle inside with only Gasol, McRobers and Murphy the only real threats down low. Artest is a wack job that Kobe is over dealing with and Brown is a new head coach struggling to earn the respect of his players. The key to this play is really Bynum though, because without him they will struggle with the Bulls front court. Obviously, no one can guard Kobe or D.Rose, but with Kobe's injury and the young hustle and work ethic that Rose employs, I think the superstar edge also goes to the Bulls. Brown is not anywhere near as good a coach as Thibodeaux and the Bulls have the edge in that department. At this point of the season, the Bulls have the better offense, defense, coaching and team chemistry. I love the Bulls to win this game and have the game set at a PK. The market agreed and we were ahead of the curve by getting great numbers. I am rolling with the Bulls for 2x, with 1x at (+3) and 1x at a PK. Good luck.

Play #2

Clippers/Warriors under (214) 1x (Locked)

The numbers are jumping all over the place between 215 and 211 at the open. I was able to get 214 before it started moving lower to the 213 it's at while I type. I just think this game is set too high for the late Christmas game where the Warriors will be playing a more defensive minded style and the Clippers have yet to gel as a team. I think the under is the play in all the games for Christmas, but especially this one. I have this game set at 208 and I'm getting 214. However, with this being the first day of the season, I'm not going bigger than 1x on a total. However, I do think we're getting great value at this number and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Teaser

Heat (PK)/Bulls (PK) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

As you know, I love the Bulls to win this game and my thoughts on that one are above. I also really think the Heat win today as well. I should played the Heat upon the open at a PK. However, I wanted to see where this Maverick roster ended up after losing Butler, Chandler and Barrea. While Odom is a great role player, he does not make up for the lack of fire power provided by the three players the Mavs lost. Therefore, on this opening day, I think the Mavs are worse off offensively by losing Butler, defensively by losing Chandler and in their backcourt depth by losing Barrea. While Odom sort of fills the void lost by Chandler and Butler, I just don't think that's enough for an already-old team that just got older. Plus, there are more distractions for the Mavs in this game than the Heat. After all, this will be the day that the Mavs get their championship rings and raise the banner, plus it's Christmas with the Mavs playing at home where they will have familial distractions. The Heat don't have to worry about the familial distractions and they have been stewing all offseason waiting for this rematch. I think we see a razor sharp focus from the Heat today which will lead to great games from the Big-3 and an especially big game from Bron-Bron. I have the Heat set at -1 and the Bulls set at a PK. I will tease them down for 1x and bank on both road team pulling out the victory. Good luck.

Play #4

Celtics/Knicks under (192) 1x (Locked)

We're getting a horrible number, three points less than the opener of 195. However, I still like this play for multiple reasons and will risk the bad number in this rare spot. In addition, I suspect we see a closing number around 191 and we should beat the closer. First, I think the Celtics know the only way they win this game is by slowing down the pace and winning with team defense and half court sets. They will not be able to outgun the Knicks today, especially with a hobbled Paul Pierce who I suspect will play, but will only see about 15-20 minutes. That's not going to be enough with a healthy Stoudemire and Melo on the other end. However, I don't necessarily think this year's Knicks will employ the "outscore-em" mentality like last year and will instead try to play a little defense. Even if I am wrong and Dantoni plays it stupid by trying to outgun everyone, I still think the Celtics have trouble scoring today and will slow the game down to keep it close. Plus, with this game going off so early in the morning for the first game of the season on Christmas day, I think the players' body clocks will be off in this game and they will be just a bit distracted by familial stuff as is usually the case for NBA Christmas day games. I have this game set at 190 and we're getting it at 192 which still is enough value to play this game, so I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Good luck. Instead of the teaser you could parlay mia/chi ML for better odds.

You are 100% correct. Still a little groggy this morning, but that was really stupid of me. Too late now, but I appreciate the wake up call. Good luck sir.

[Overbettor]

That answers my question. Thanks bro and happy holidays.

[Love The Action]

watch the game he has!!

You should play some props on Odom if you really think he will have a great game!

[IceSlipper]

Good to be back for another season! Ready to roll, thanks for the write ups LTA. You were a great help to me last season, and im backing you in to get it done again this time around! Didn't have alot of time to look into these games (thanks christmas!), but like the look of what you posted and have tailed plays 1, 2 and 4! Lets cash early! BOL everyone!

[fly fisher]

hey LTA, now that the lakers are at a +5, do you think Chicago blows them out, or do you think this is a great middle chance?

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 12/25/2011

Play #1

Bulls (+3) 1x and Bulls (PK) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)

I love the Bulls in this spot and it's all about continuity. The Bulls have been quiet in the free agent market, instead deciding to tweak the team and make it better by adding Hamilton. Led by Rose, the Bulls are the silent assassin of top caliber teams that is always underrated compared to the Heat, Lakers, etc. However, on this opening day, I expect the Bulls to run all over the Lake Show. As I said, this one is about continuity of players and knowing how to play together. The Bulls have that, while the Lakers are a mess right now. Players are on eggshells in fear of being traded and even if they made a blockbuster trade, they won't have enough time before Christmas Day to come together as a team in order to beat the Bulls. The Lakers are already without Odom because of their off-season mess and McRobers is nothing more than a role player -- he does not possess anywhere near the skillset to replace Odom. The Bulls stay humble and quiet led by Rose and are just getting ready to attack. Without Andrew Bynum, the Lakers will struggle inside with only Gasol, McRobers and Murphy the only real threats down low. Artest is a wack job that Kobe is over dealing with and Brown is a new head coach struggling to earn the respect of his players. The key to this play is really Bynum though, because without him they will struggle with the Bulls front court. Obviously, no one can guard Kobe or D.Rose, but with Kobe's injury and the young hustle and work ethic that Rose employs, I think the superstar edge also goes to the Bulls. Brown is not anywhere near as good a coach as Thibodeaux and the Bulls have the edge in that department. At this point of the season, the Bulls have the better offense, defense, coaching and team chemistry. I love the Bulls to win this game and have the game set at a PK. The market agreed and we were ahead of the curve by getting great numbers. I am rolling with the Bulls for 2x, with 1x at (+3) and 1x at a PK. Good luck.

Play #2

Clippers/Warriors under (214) 1x (Locked)

The numbers are jumping all over the place between 215 and 211 at the open. I was able to get 214 before it started moving lower to the 213 it's at while I type. I just think this game is set too high for the late Christmas game where the Warriors will be playing a more defensive minded style and the Clippers have yet to gel as a team. I think the under is the play in all the games for Christmas, but especially this one. I have this game set at 208 and I'm getting 214. However, with this being the first day of the season, I'm not going bigger than 1x on a total. However, I do think we're getting great value at this number and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Teaser

Heat (PK)/Bulls (PK) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

As you know, I love the Bulls to win this game and my thoughts on that one are above. I also really think the Heat win today as well. I should played the Heat upon the open at a PK. However, I wanted to see where this Maverick roster ended up after losing Butler, Chandler and Barrea. While Odom is a great role player, he does not make up for the lack of fire power provided by the three players the Mavs lost. Therefore, on this opening day, I think the Mavs are worse off offensively by losing Butler, defensively by losing Chandler and in their backcourt depth by losing Barrea. While Odom sort of fills the void lost by Chandler and Butler, I just don't think that's enough for an already-old team that just got older. Plus, there are more distractions for the Mavs in this game than the Heat. After all, this will be the day that the Mavs get their championship rings and raise the banner, plus it's Christmas with the Mavs playing at home where they will have familial distractions. The Heat don't have to worry about the familial distractions and they have been stewing all offseason waiting for this rematch. I think we see a razor sharp focus from the Heat today which will lead to great games from the Big-3 and an especially big game from Bron-Bron. I have the Heat set at -1 and the Bulls set at a PK. I will tease them down for 1x and bank on both road team pulling out the victory. Good luck.

Play #4

Celtics/Knicks under (192) 1x (Locked)

We're getting a horrible number, three points less than the opener of 195. However, I still like this play for multiple reasons and will risk the bad number in this rare spot. In addition, I suspect we see a closing number around 191 and we should beat the closer. First, I think the Celtics know the only way they win this game is by slowing down the pace and winning with team defense and half court sets. They will not be able to outgun the Knicks today, especially with a hobbled Paul Pierce who I suspect will play, but will only see about 15-20 minutes. That's not going to be enough with a healthy Stoudemire and Melo on the other end. However, I don't necessarily think this year's Knicks will employ the "outscore-em" mentality like last year and will instead try to play a little defense. Even if I am wrong and Dantoni plays it stupid by trying to outgun everyone, I still think the Celtics have trouble scoring today and will slow the game down to keep it close. Plus, with this game going off so early in the morning for the first game of the season on Christmas day, I think the players' body clocks will be off in this game and they will be just a bit distracted by familial stuff as is usually the case for NBA Christmas day games. I have this game set at 190 and we're getting it at 192 which still is enough value to play this game, so I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

ACTION TEASER (Not for Records Win or Lose)

Celtics/Knicks under (196)
Heat (PK)
Heat/Mavs under (192)
Bulls (PK)
Bulls/Lakers under (189.5)
Magic/Thunder under (201)
Clippers/Warriors under (212.5)

0.20x (+800) (Locked)

I have each game set under the posted totals (or at least the openers) and I love the Heat and the Bulls today. Therefore, I am going to tease them all for the added value as a fun little action wager. I am already playing the Celtics/Knicks under (192) and the Clippers/Warriors under (214) for 1x each and have plays on the Bulls for 2x and another teaser (that should have been a ML parlay if I was thinking) with the Bulls/Heat for 1x. Consequently, I think we're getting great value by adding all of these plays together with the remaining game totals. I have the Knicks game set at 190 and this tease gives us 196; I have the Mavs game set at 189 and this tease gives us 192; I have the Lakers game set at 185 and this tease gives us 189.5; I have the Thunder game set at 196.5 and this tease gives us 201; and I have the Warriors game set at 208 and this tease gives us 212.5. With the distractions that occur on the first game of the year and Christmas day games, combined with the shortened preseason, I think we see all of the games stay under. As long as the Bulls and Heat win, this teaser should hit. If not, then at least we had action on all the games and something to root for as we watch the with our families. Good luck and Merry Christmas to all!

[Trivial]

Thanks LTA. I got in on your other two plays. Best of luck to us all giving us a Merry Xmas!

Weird though. Two of my books took Bulls off the board. Very weird. Luckily I could do the teaser at Pinny.

[Love The Action]

Good to be back for another season! Ready to roll, thanks for the write ups LTA. You were a great help to me last season, and im backing you in to get it done again this time around! Didn't have alot of time to look into these games (thanks christmas!), but like the look of what you posted and have tailed plays 1, 2 and 4! Lets cash early! BOL everyone!

Good luck Ice! Let's have a big year buddy!

[Love The Action]

hey LTA, now that the lakers are at a +5, do you think Chicago blows them out, or do you think this is a great middle chance?

If you have +3 and bet big on it, then I think this is a great middle opportunity. It's hard to believe the Lakers would get blown out by more than 5 at home on Christmas. However, I do think the Bulls win this one with ease. If the Lakers would cover, it's going to be by back door cover and not because the game was in doubt.

I only put 1x down on the Bulls at +3, so I'm not going to shoot for the middle. If I were going to arb, then I would make a conscience effort to just do that. However, proper arbitrage wagering requires as many book and outlets as possible (i.e. 13-20) in order to properly make money via arbing. Plus, there is much more that goes into it. Therefore, unless I specifically look to arb a game from the outset, I generally just let a great bet like the Bulls -- where there was a 8 point market shift in my favor after I bet -- play out. I'm going to let it fly and watch the Bulls win this one. Good luck FF

[Love The Action]

Thanks LTA. I got in on your other two plays. Best of luck to us all giving us a Merry Xmas!

Weird though. Two of my books took Bulls off the board. Very weird. Luckily I could do the teaser at Pinny.

I wouldn't worry about the Bulls coming off, that's been happening for the last two weeks. Probably Kobe concerns. Good luck bud!

[fly fisher]

thanks for the response. I did get the bulls at +2.5 so feel real good about that. I took the lakers at +6 for a small wager, so either I win big with the middle or win a little with the bulls. thanks again and Merry Christmas. I used a free play with the lakers.

[Love The Action]

thanks for the response. I did get the bulls at +2.5 so feel real good about that. I took the lakers at +6 for a small wager, so either I win big with the middle or win a little with the bulls. thanks again and Merry Christmas. I used a free play with the lakers.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 12/25/2011

Play #1

Bulls (+3) 1x and Bulls (PK) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)

I love the Bulls in this spot and it's all about continuity. The Bulls have been quiet in the free agent market, instead deciding to tweak the team and make it better by adding Hamilton. Led by Rose, the Bulls are the silent assassin of top caliber teams that is always underrated compared to the Heat, Lakers, etc. However, on this opening day, I expect the Bulls to run all over the Lake Show. As I said, this one is about continuity of players and knowing how to play together. The Bulls have that, while the Lakers are a mess right now. Players are on eggshells in fear of being traded and even if they made a blockbuster trade, they won't have enough time before Christmas Day to come together as a team in order to beat the Bulls. The Lakers are already without Odom because of their off-season mess and McRobers is nothing more than a role player -- he does not possess anywhere near the skillset to replace Odom. The Bulls stay humble and quiet led by Rose and are just getting ready to attack. Without Andrew Bynum, the Lakers will struggle inside with only Gasol, McRobers and Murphy the only real threats down low. Artest is a wack job that Kobe is over dealing with and Brown is a new head coach struggling to earn the respect of his players. The key to this play is really Bynum though, because without him they will struggle with the Bulls front court. Obviously, no one can guard Kobe or D.Rose, but with Kobe's injury and the young hustle and work ethic that Rose employs, I think the superstar edge also goes to the Bulls. Brown is not anywhere near as good a coach as Thibodeaux and the Bulls have the edge in that department. At this point of the season, the Bulls have the better offense, defense, coaching and team chemistry. I love the Bulls to win this game and have the game set at a PK. The market agreed and we were ahead of the curve by getting great numbers. I am rolling with the Bulls for 2x, with 1x at (+3) and 1x at a PK. Good luck.

Play #2

Clippers/Warriors under (214) 1x (Locked)

The numbers are jumping all over the place between 215 and 211 at the open. I was able to get 214 before it started moving lower to the 213 it's at while I type. I just think this game is set too high for the late Christmas game where the Warriors will be playing a more defensive minded style and the Clippers have yet to gel as a team. I think the under is the play in all the games for Christmas, but especially this one. I have this game set at 208 and I'm getting 214. However, with this being the first day of the season, I'm not going bigger than 1x on a total. However, I do think we're getting great value at this number and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Teaser

Heat (PK)/Bulls (PK) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

As you know, I love the Bulls to win this game and my thoughts on that one are above. I also really think the Heat win today as well. I should played the Heat upon the open at a PK. However, I wanted to see where this Maverick roster ended up after losing Butler, Chandler and Barrea. While Odom is a great role player, he does not make up for the lack of fire power provided by the three players the Mavs lost. Therefore, on this opening day, I think the Mavs are worse off offensively by losing Butler, defensively by losing Chandler and in their backcourt depth by losing Barrea. While Odom sort of fills the void lost by Chandler and Butler, I just don't think that's enough for an already-old team that just got older. Plus, there are more distractions for the Mavs in this game than the Heat. After all, this will be the day that the Mavs get their championship rings and raise the banner, plus it's Christmas with the Mavs playing at home where they will have familial distractions. The Heat don't have to worry about the familial distractions and they have been stewing all offseason waiting for this rematch. I think we see a razor sharp focus from the Heat today which will lead to great games from the Big-3 and an especially big game from Bron-Bron. I have the Heat set at -1 and the Bulls set at a PK. I will tease them down for 1x and bank on both road team pulling out the victory. Good luck.

Play #4

Celtics/Knicks under (192) 1x (Locked)

We're getting a horrible number, three points less than the opener of 195. However, I still like this play for multiple reasons and will risk the bad number in this rare spot. In addition, I suspect we see a closing number around 191 and we should beat the closer. First, I think the Celtics know the only way they win this game is by slowing down the pace and winning with team defense and half court sets. They will not be able to outgun the Knicks today, especially with a hobbled Paul Pierce who I suspect will play, but will only see about 15-20 minutes. That's not going to be enough with a healthy Stoudemire and Melo on the other end. However, I don't necessarily think this year's Knicks will employ the "outscore-em" mentality like last year and will instead try to play a little defense. Even if I am wrong and Dantoni plays it stupid by trying to outgun everyone, I still think the Celtics have trouble scoring today and will slow the game down to keep it close. Plus, with this game going off so early in the morning for the first game of the season on Christmas day, I think the players' body clocks will be off in this game and they will be just a bit distracted by familial stuff as is usually the case for NBA Christmas day games. I have this game set at 190 and we're getting it at 192 which still is enough value to play this game, so I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

ACTION TEASER (Not for Records Win or Lose)

Celtics/Knicks under (196)
Heat (PK)
Heat/Mavs under (192)
Bulls (PK)
Bulls/Lakers under (189.5)
Magic/Thunder under (201)
Clippers/Warriors under (212.5)

0.20x (+800) (Locked)

I have each game set under the posted totals (or at least the openers) and I love the Heat and the Bulls today. Therefore, I am going to tease them all for the added value as a fun little action wager. I am already playing the Celtics/Knicks under (192) and the Clippers/Warriors under (214) for 1x each and have plays on the Bulls for 2x and another teaser (that should have been a ML parlay if I was thinking) with the Bulls/Heat for 1x. Consequently, I think we're getting great value by adding all of these plays together with the remaining game totals. I have the Knicks game set at 190 and this tease gives us 196; I have the Mavs game set at 189 and this tease gives us 192; I have the Lakers game set at 185 and this tease gives us 189.5; I have the Thunder game set at 196.5 and this tease gives us 201; and I have the Warriors game set at 208 and this tease gives us 212.5. With the distractions that occur on the first game of the year and Christmas day games, combined with the shortened preseason, I think we see all of the games stay under. As long as the Bulls and Heat win, this teaser should hit. If not, then at least we had action on all the games and something to root for as we watch the with our families. Good luck and Merry Christmas to all!

My opening day card is final with the above plays. We are on schedule to demolish the closing numbers. We bought the Celts/Knicks under at 192 and its at 189 right now. We had an 8 point line move in our favor in the Bulls game from +3 to -4.5 (or -5 in some spots). Plus, we killed the Clippers/Warriors total by buying the under at 214 and its currently at 208, which is a full 6 point move and is also the number I predicted we would see in my writeup.

I'm off to spend the day with family for whole day. The women and kids will be opening presents, while the guys will be boozing and watching the early games! Let's start the season off with a big opening day and keep the positive vibes flowing in here. Good luck and Merry Christmas to all!

[Trivial]

I wouldn't worry about the Bulls coming off, that's been happening for the last two weeks. Probably Kobe concerns. Good luck bud!

Thanks LTA. Was not worried at all. Just wondering what is up.

Good luck to us all. Merry xmas and enjoy the games. On the road now (wife driving) to the wife's family 2 hours away.

Wishing best of luck to my first day ever NBA betting.

[Overbettor]

I can get 183 in the bulls game with my local right now Lta. You stated you have it set at 185 so im wondering if you think a play on the over would be advisable?

[815Sox]

Merry Xmas, Hanukkah, Kwanza, Winter Solstice, ... whatever you celebrate!! I am playing that Teaser... cannot get the rest of the numbers really.

[jas19illini]

is kobe playing today?

[GChild]

There getting tired

[KuLaPhU]

is kobe playing today?

I think he'll play

[Love The Action]

D.Rose and the Bulls defense....nice

[BernardMadoff]

How did I know you were on the unders, hehe.

[Love The Action]

How did I know you were on the unders, hehe.

Bernie! Merry Christmas buddy!

[No coincidences]

So tempted to take the Warriors at +6 LTA.

Do you have a side lean there?

[BernardMadoff]

Bernie! Merry Christmas buddy!

Merry Christmas bro, was just teasing, hope you kill it this year.

[H-Diesel503]

I think Clips win in a blowout tonight with Monte and Curry limping.....

[wguan2]

BOL this year LTA. I'll be following closely and offering my opinion whenever I can. I'm fairly new to capping but NBA is by far my best sport. I've been following my entire life.

Hope you had a great Christmas

[H-Diesel503]

Playing 12/26

Blazers -4
OKC -4.5
Orlando -4

Each of these plays is based on the fact that the teams were relatively intact throughout the prior season and have teh chemistry to win games. Meanwhile, their opponents have been cobbled together and have relatively no chemistry and suck just in general.

BOL!

[Love The Action]

BOL this year LTA. I'll be following closely and offering my opinion whenever I can. I'm fairly new to capping but NBA is by far my best sport. I've been following my entire life.

Hope you had a great Christmas

Good luck WG!