Big bet for me Wednesday

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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #1
    Big bet for me Wednesday
    Horrible night tonight -- hoping to bounce back.

    ATL -1

    If you hate it, fade it.

  • $Burm$
    Restricted User
    • 12-03-09
    • 3019

    #2
    like it NC
    Comment
    • lunchbawks
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-31-10
      • 12873

      #3
      how big of a play?
      Comment
      • No coincidences
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-18-10
        • 76300

        #4
        Originally posted by lunchbawks
        how big of a play?
        For me NBA-wise, pretty big (though I'm admittedly not a big gambler bankroll wise -- this is much more recreation and much less of an income).

        ODU ML on Thursday is bigger.

        This is likely my only NBA play Wednesday.
        Comment
        • NYSportsGuy210
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-07-09
          • 11347

          #5
          Orlando (-5) is the safer bet.
          Comment
          • No coincidences
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-18-10
            • 76300

            #6
            I love this new-look Denver team, BTW. I just think the Hawks get the job done on Wednesday.

            As for Orlando, why are they only -5 (after opening at 5.5)? Bucks have been atrocious in their last two games, and they should be tired. Magic were favored by more in Phoenix against a much better Suns team (even sans Nash). Doesn't make any sense; I don't like it.
            Comment
            • lunchbawks
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-31-10
              • 12873

              #7
              this game will be good.
              Comment
              • No coincidences
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 01-18-10
                • 76300

                #8
                I do like ORL/MIL under 180 a lot:

                Under is 7-1 in ORL last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
                Under is 14-4 in ORL last 18 overall.
                Under is 6-2 in ORL last 8 road games.
                Under is 24-8 in MIL last 32 home games.
                Under is 6-2 in MIL last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
                Under is 19-7 in MIL last 26 overall.

                Comment
                • NYSportsGuy210
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-07-09
                  • 11347

                  #9
                  I think Magic getting blown out at Los Angeles was cause for concern. It's a buy low-sell high type of line here....perception of Orlando is that they are weak and out of sync. They are still better than Milwaukee however.
                  Comment
                  • twelvejewelz
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-29-11
                    • 2388

                    #10
                    I wont bet against this denver team right now. I was on Atlanta tonight but denver is deep. They can start their entire bench..How is atlanta on b2b?
                    Comment
                    • NYSportsGuy210
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-07-09
                      • 11347

                      #11
                      Originally posted by No coincidences
                      I do like ORL/MIL under 180 a lot:

                      Under is 7-1 in ORL last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
                      Under is 14-4 in ORL last 18 overall.
                      Under is 6-2 in ORL last 8 road games.
                      Under is 24-8 in MIL last 32 home games.
                      Under is 6-2 in MIL last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
                      Under is 19-7 in MIL last 26 overall.


                      Yes, I was also leaning towards this. However I think the Magic come out and need to make a statement after their Lakers bashing. This is why I favor the spread more.
                      Comment
                      • No coincidences
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 01-18-10
                        • 76300

                        #12
                        Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210
                        I think Magic getting blown out at Los Angeles was cause for concern. It's a buy low-sell high type of line here....perception of Orlando is that they are weak and out of sync. They are still better than Milwaukee however.
                        And what would the perception be of Milwaukee after their last two performances?

                        IMHO, this should be at least -6.5.
                        Comment
                        • NYSportsGuy210
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-07-09
                          • 11347

                          #13
                          This is a classic case of arbitrage. You need to take advantage of it. Magic (-5.5) or (-5) is the play here.
                          Comment
                          • lunchbawks
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 01-31-10
                            • 12873

                            #14
                            milwaukee has never looked worse. magic 1H -3 is likely my POD.
                            Comment
                            • No coincidences
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 01-18-10
                              • 76300

                              #15
                              Originally posted by NYSportsGuy210
                              This is a classic case of arbitrage. You need to take advantage of it. Magic (-5.5) or (-5) is the play here.
                              Good luck. I'm not touching it. Magic just lost to the Lakers -- they weren't blown out, and it was one game against the champs on their court. If they'd lost 5 in a row or something, you'd have me convinced. The line stinks IMHO.
                              Comment
                              • No coincidences
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 01-18-10
                                • 76300

                                #16
                                Originally posted by lunchbawks
                                milwaukee has never looked worse. magic 1H -3 is likely my POD.
                                They were outstanding Saturday night.
                                Comment
                                • NYSportsGuy210
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-07-09
                                  • 11347

                                  #17
                                  Also because the Magic lost at Milwaukee earlier this season by like 10.

                                  That played into the spread too.
                                  Comment
                                  • Goat Milk
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 03-24-10
                                    • 25850

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by No coincidences

                                    They were outstanding Saturday night.
                                    no philly was just tired
                                    Cause Sleep is the Cousin of Death
                                    Comment
                                    • NBA_Brosuf
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 02-14-11
                                      • 2489

                                      #19
                                      I'm not betting on this one but I'm liking Denver. Just sharing to stir up the pot a little bit. LOL
                                      Comment
                                      • ThingsFallApart
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 12-24-10
                                        • 880

                                        #20
                                        Thank you, I did like Denver now I can stick with it



                                        Please don't switch to Denver because the line is moving though.
                                        Comment
                                        • dchung53
                                          SBR Rookie
                                          • 11-23-10
                                          • 11

                                          #21
                                          hawks blow out denver
                                          Comment
                                          • Degenerate
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 06-25-07
                                            • 159

                                            #22
                                            I like ATL, but I haven't bet it yet.
                                            GL with your bet
                                            Comment
                                            • thebestthereis
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 03-01-09
                                              • 11459

                                              #23
                                              bucks have dominated orlando ats in milwaukee for years, the line is too high (not too low) in that game but adjusted for the situation, hence -5.5. it isn't like orlando has won 10 straight. it's the bucks 4th game in 5 nights are they have only scored 8 points in two games including 4 garbage buckets. throw the last two games out (way out) and the line is too high. good luck!
                                              Comment
                                              • doe
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 07-09-09
                                                • 114

                                                #24
                                                Denver ml
                                                Comment
                                                • Jerm3462
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-09-09
                                                  • 4454

                                                  #25
                                                  .....waiting for dynamite
                                                  Comment
                                                  • begsy
                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                    • 03-16-11
                                                    • 2

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by thebestthereis
                                                    bucks 4th game in 5 nights are they have only scored 8 points in two games including 4 garbage buckets. throw the last two games out (way out) and the line is too high. good luck!
                                                    what does this mean?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • No coincidences
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 01-18-10
                                                      • 76300

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Goat Milk
                                                      no philly was just tired
                                                      Philly was tired, but it's not like Milwaukee skated by. They blew them out.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • CHAZ
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-09-09
                                                        • 4978

                                                        #28
                                                        Why do you like ATL so much tonight?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • gv12
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 08-05-10
                                                          • 459

                                                          #29
                                                          good luck today noco, really like the Atlanta play as well
                                                          Comment
                                                          • No coincidences
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 01-18-10
                                                            • 76300

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by CHAZ
                                                            Why do you like ATL so much tonight?
                                                            Hawks are still a very solid home team who plays up to their competition. Denver's on an ATS tear, but this is still a 13-20 road squad we're talking about here. I know they've played well on the road since the trade, but a lot of games have been against inferior competition and this game isn't it.

                                                            Denver hasn't won in Atlanta since I believe '07-08, and they're 2-18 L-20 there. They also have the Magic and Heat on deck. I just think this is a bad spot for them.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • soxwin
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-05-10
                                                              • 1885

                                                              #31
                                                              Atlanta -1 seems to be the popular play. Make the cash!!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JR007
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 02-21-10
                                                                • 5279

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Goat Milk
                                                                no philly was just tired
                                                                thought it was all about matchups...are you admiting that fatigue comes into play when capping the NBA ????...lets stay consistent
                                                                Comment
                                                                • suicidekings
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 03-23-09
                                                                  • 9962

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by No coincidences

                                                                  Hawks are still a very solid home team who plays up to their competition. Denver's on an ATS tear, but this is still a 13-20 road squad we're talking about here. I know they've played well on the road since the trade, but a lot of games have been against inferior competition and this game isn't it.

                                                                  Denver hasn't won in Atlanta since I believe '07-08, and they're 2-18 L-20 there. They also have the Magic and Heat on deck. I just think this is a bad spot for them.
                                                                  This is the same logic that made so many people on here so confident about the Pistons when the Nuggets went to Detroit on Jan 26th... Denver was a shit road team, on a B2B, that hadn't won at the Palace in a LONG time, and the Nuggets still beat them by 9. Such trends are worse than worthless because they're misleading.

                                                                  It seems odd to me that with the factors contributing to the matchup: Hawks having this good home track record against the Nuggets and in a revenge situation (albeit not from a big blowout), while Denver is supposedly a shit team on the road, missing Arron Afflalo, and with the Magic & Heat coming up next... With all that, ATL is only a pk at open?

                                                                  I like the Nuggets. Not a big bet, but I really wouldn't describe the Hawks as being in a favourable spot. More like neutral. Be careful going big, especially chasing yesterday's losses...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • No coincidences
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 01-18-10
                                                                    • 76300

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                                    This is the same logic that made so many people on here so confident about the Pistons when the Nuggets went to Detroit on Jan 26th... Denver was a shit road team, on a B2B, that hadn't won at the Palace in a LONG time, and the Nuggets still beat them by 9. Such trends are worse than worthless because they're misleading.

                                                                    It seems odd to me that with the factors contributing to the matchup: Hawks having this good home track record against the Nuggets and in a revenge situation (albeit not from a big blowout), while Denver is supposedly a shit team on the road, missing Arron Afflalo, and with the Magic & Heat coming up next... With all that, ATL is only a pk at open?

                                                                    I like the Nuggets. Not a big bet, but I really wouldn't describe the Hawks as being in a favourable spot. More like neutral. Be careful going big, especially chasing yesterday's losses...
                                                                    I appreciate and respect your thoughts, SK.

                                                                    With that being said, the Hawks aren't the Pistons.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • lakerboy
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 04-02-09
                                                                      • 94379

                                                                      #35
                                                                      NO COIN how big is the bet?
                                                                      Comment
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