Bartek's NBA post all-star break picks

[JR007]

I have a question Bro.......do you have a( MOS)...margin of safety....built in to your model.....I have seen a modeler do this for bases...in another...venue.factored.in( 2%)....you had phoenix yesterday....but the team was dealing with a fatigue factor, and how about injury situations.....again like yesterday......what if that worked against your play.....read your 1st post.....but injury info...sometimes gametime decisions

starting to see the components.....but have yet to learn how they all interact together....Thanks....Nice Job.

[bolekblues]

I have a question Bro.......do you have a( MOS)...margin of safety....built in to your model.....I have seen a modeler do this for bases...in another...venue.factored.in( 2%)....you had phoenix yesterday....but the team was dealing with a fatigue factor, and how about injury situations.....again like yesterday......what if that worked against your play..... starting to see the components.....but have yet to learn how they all interact together....Thanks....Nice Job.

There are a lot of factors that are taken into account when forming a line, and those include injuries and rest as well. Phoenix would not have been a play at -9 but the betting public apparently overreacted to them coming off a triple overtime and the line of -7 became playable.

One thing I try not to do is to handicap the game myself and interrupt the way model works. I have developed something that seems to be picking winners on a nice clip and i think it includes enough factors so i just let it generate plays automatically, updating injuries only. I have not had success in handicapping the games myself. not that i do not know the game or the way it works. but if u asked me i would have probably played celitcs at -6 yesterday, as i thought they have to start asserting themselves on their court. but instead i followed a model which said the line was right were it should be.

I do not claim that i can't increase my win% and that the model is picking up all the best plays, but i think it is reflected in both winning % and line movement (majority of lines are in accord with the model). the best example is today. i thought the hornets game was off the board (yesterday) and did not check again whether the line was not put up, and i missed a play. had i waited by the computer i would have got -1 and instead i played it today at -3. hope this doesn't bite me, but i will have to try to catch those line - obviously i cannot always be at the computer at the proper time, but still have to do sth to figure this out.

[JR007]

thanks.....looks like you have some sort of accounting for unforseen variables.....in the model....

[bolekblues]

2011-03-24
New Orleans -3 (-110), 5%

wow just as i was writing the previous post the line jumped to -4,5 across the board

[JR007]

2011-03-24
New Orleans -3 (-110), 5%

wow just as i was writing the previous post the line jumped to -4,5 across the board

convinced the oddsmakers watch these forums

[bolekblues]

convinced the oddsmakers watch these forums

i am not stating i or anyone posting here move the lines, but this are quite strong plays and more often than not if u are not quick to jump on a play you might have to take worse line

[bolekblues]

Dallas -15,5 (-105), 2,5%

plays for tomorrow

2011-03-25
Chicago -8 (-110), 3,5%
Detroit -2,5 (-105), 6,5%
Indiana -7,5 (-105), 5%
LA Lakers -9,5 (-105), 5%
New York -6 (+100), 3,5%
Oklahoma City -16 (-105), 3,5%

[JR007]

[quote=bolekblues;9343373]Dallas -15,5 (-105), 2,5%

plays for tomorrow

2011-03-25
Chicago -8 (-110), 3,5%
Detroit -2,5 (-105), 6,5%
Indiana -7,5 (-105), 5%
LA Lakers -9,5 (-105), 5%
New York -6 (+100), 3,5%
Oklahoma City -16 (-105), 3,5%

/quote]

chalk city today dude.......seems like the model likes it too....interesting...similiar to the other site
I pm'ed you about

[bolekblues]

Yes a lot of favorites (actually only favs by now) but as i stated earlier will not try to 'improve' it through my own subjective beliefs.

[bolekblues]

2011-03-24 results: 1-1
YTD: 84-63-2 (57,1%), +94,62%

[bolekblues]

New Orleans +4 (-103), 3,5%

[bolekblues]

Boston -13 (-105), 3,5%
San Antonio +3,5 (-107), 3,5%

[bolekblues]

Orlando -13 (-105), 3,5%

[bolekblues]

terrible night. favorites got literally killed today. funny thing that the two bets that cashed were underdogs. unbelievable i just got killed

[bolekblues]

2011-03-25 results: 2-8
YTD: 86-71-2 (54,1%), +40,37%

[JR007]

will you still play..that amount of chalk......if it calls for that many plays again ????...

[bolekblues]

i guess so. that was just this kind of night. favorites were killed. nothing you can do about it. would you predtict boston losing to CHA at home? i guess no. but those things happen, this is nba and this is gambling. i have to stick to what works, even if this looks unrational at first glance.

[JR007]

[bolekblues]

2011-03-26
New York -4 (-105), 5%
Indiana +2 (-103), 5%
Toronto +11 (-107), 3,5%
Chicago -5,5 (-105), 8%
Dallas -6 (-105), 3,5%

[bolekblues]

2011-03-26 results: 3-2
YTD: 89-73-2 (54,9%), +46,69%

[bolekblues]

2011-03-27
LA Lakers -8,5 (-110), 3,5%
San Antonio +2,5 (-104), 5%
Miami -8,5 (-104), 3,5%
Philadelphia -9 (-108), 3,5%

[JR007]

[bolekblues]

Atlanta -5 (-105), 5%
Boston -8 (-110), 3,5%

[bolekblues]

2011-03-27 results: 2-4
YTD: 91-77-2 (54,2%), +35%

[bolekblues]

2011-03-28
Milwaukee +1,5 (-107), 5%
Chicago -10 (-105), 5%
Utah -11,5 (-110), 3,5%

[JR007]

still at 54%.....which is good........

[bolekblues]

the long term win % is right above 54%, so to be honest i wasn't exoecting it to hit way above it, like 57%. the higher ranked plays will hit a higher % (in the long run), though.

[bolekblues]

New York +2 (-103), 2,5%

[bolekblues]

2011-03-28 results: 2-2
YTD: 93-79-2 (54,1%), +32,84%

[JR007]

Limping back from my March madness beatdown.......that is just too tough...notice how those lines 4,4.5...etc...set up so fouling down the stretch would be a factor......watch how you will see the same in the NBA playoffs as well...............

[bolekblues]

Limping back from my March madness beatdown.......that is just too tough...notice how those lines 4,4.5...etc...set up so fouling down the stretch would be a factor......watch how you will see the same in the NBA playoffs as well...............

yes i know, this can get tricky.

as for march madness, there are some huge upsets but i cheer for no particular team so this has been fun. butler and vcu, who could have predicted that..?

[bolekblues]

2011-03-29
Phoenix -1 (+100), 3,5%
Oklahoma City -10 (-105), 3,5%

[bolekblues]

Miami -13,5 (-104), 3,5%

[bolekblues]

booked already for tomorrow
Denver -11,5 (-110), 3,5%
Philadelphia -3,5 (-105), 3,5%
Dallas -4,5 (-105), 3,5%

[MysteryMung]

best of luck my friend i hate taking 13.5 but i think my money is on MIA tonight