Bartek's NBA post all-star break picks

[bolekblues]

2011-03-18
San Antonio +2 (-105), 3,5%
New York -3 (-110), 3,5%
Oklahoma City -9,5 (-110), 3,5%
Denver +6 (-104), 2,5%
Philadelphia -5 (-102), 6,5%

[bolekblues]

Boston -1 (-105), 3,5%
Chicago -4 (-105), 3,5%

[JR007]

Looks consistent so far.... dude

[bolekblues]

damn. 4 more model plays and i lost value in all 4 because i waited (not sure why), and line moved in all of them. wow

[bolekblues]

Miami -6 (-103), 2,5%
Milwaukee -6,5 (-107), 2,5%
Phoenix -5,5 (-105), 3,5%
Toronto -8 (-103), 2,5%

too many favs tonite. i have a bad feeling

[bolekblues]

great day yesterday. will have updated record later.

passing on the first game. would have been quite a big clippers play but i didnt have the access to the internet earlier and now the line has moved like 3 points

[bolekblues]

2011-03-18 results: 8-3-0
YTD: 66-52-2 (55,9%), +43,06%

2011-03-19
Memphis -9 (-110), 2,5%
Philadelphia +7 (-108), 2,5%
San Antonio -12,5 (-102), 3,5%

[bolekblues]

2011-03-19 results: 1-2
YTD: 67-54-2 (55,4%), +37,67%

did not play LAC because of line movement but made a play LAC-8 for the 2nd half (which corresdponds to LAC-12 for a game). Guess i should have just passed up. Cleveland really hung on. On to the next day.

2011-03-20
Atlanta -7 (-105), 3,5%
Dallas -9,5 (+100), 2,5%
New York +1 (-105), 3,5%

[bolekblues]

just looked at the box scores and it easily could have been a 3-0 nite, because philly hung on nicely throughout and the spurs blew the bobcats out and just let it go in the 4th, allowing them to score 30points

anyway, rest of the plays for tonite

Phoenix +1,5 (-105), 3,5%
LA Lakers -6,5 (-109), 3,5%
Minnesota -3,5 (-108), 5%

[bolekblues]

Washington +2,5 (-107), 2,5%

[mehow]

on pho and min too. i also took nyk and okc. LOL (lots of luck) ;p

[bolekblues]

on pho and min too. i also took nyk and okc. LOL (lots of luck) ;p

GL to you as well

[bolekblues]

Toronto +14,5 (-108), 2,5%

[JR007]

good luck tonight

[bolekblues]

2011-03-20 results: 5-3
YTD: 72-57-2 (55,8%), 39,88%

[JR007]

nice efficiency..over 54%

bloke..why are the games "weighted" differently ???
logically, would not all plays have the same chance of winning or losing ?//

[bolekblues]

nice efficiency..over 54% bloke..why are the games "weighted" differently ??? logically, would not all plays have the same chance of winning or losing ?//

all the plays come from a model which predicts MOV using different variables. When a predicted (model) line is different (by a certain number) than a market line, then a play is made. The reason the plays are weighted is warranted by the historic win rate of plays, mainly: the plays which vary more from a makret line (say, those that are 3,5% of a current BR) have a higher sample win% than those with that vary less (eg 2,5%). The winning historic win % of '3,5%' or more is about 55%, '5%' or more is about 57% and so on. There data shows that it would be wise to put more at stake on those 'stronger' plays. I use fraction kelly to determine the stakes. BTW, it is all briefly described in the first post.

Hope this helped.

Thanks for kind words

[bolekblues]

2011-03-21
Chicago -15,5 (-105), 5%
Indiana -3 (-105), 8%
Boston -2 (-105), 3,5%
San Antonio -10,5 (-110), 5%

[JR007]

thanks for responding ....

[bolekblues]

Orlando -12 (-105), 5%

[bolekblues]

2011-03-21 results: 4-1
YTD: 76-58-2 (56,7%), 64,71%

great night. would have been a clean sweep but magic were yet another team that blew out their opponent and then decided to just get through the last quarter. if i got the opener i would have pushed. oh well, cannot complain though i guess

[bolekblues]

2011-03-22
LA Lakers -7,5 (+100), 3,5%
Chicago -4 (-105), 5%

i played both yesterday near the openers and got beat (so far) by the line movement. hopefully LA will bring their A game.

[JR007]

Nice Job...Bolek............question for you ??? is MOV the same thing as binominal distribution ???? Thanks..read this stuff but still puzzled

[bolekblues]

Nice Job...Bolek............question for you ??? is MOV the same thing as binominal distribution ???? Thanks..read this stuff but still puzzled

no no.. MOV is margin of victory, ie model's predicted line (spread). i use binomial distribution for tests but only in backtesting, not in making plays when the model has already been defined

[JR007]

thought it was margin of variance....careless reading on my part..... isn't there sometning called regression analysis...in backtesting a model ????........

[bolekblues]

thought it was margin of variance....careless reading on my part..... isn't there sometning called regression analysis...in backtesting a model ????........

yes there is regression analysis, you try to predict MOV usingh different explanatory variables, but this approach has not worked well for me. I tried to put different stats (especially Four Factors), but the result were not as good as i expected. I use it but not as a base, have something else instead.

[bolekblues]

Portland -15,5 (-110), 3,5%

[bolekblues]

2011-03-23 results: 2-1
YTD: 78-59-2 (56,9%), +72,95%

[bolekblues]

2011-03-23
New Jersey -3 (-110)
San Antonio +3,5 (+100)
Miami -8,5 (+100)
Milwaukee -8,5 (-105)
Oklahoma City -9,5 (-105)

all 5plays above are 3,5% (to win of the current bankroll, which is 172,95% of the starting BR)
played them all yesterday, at or right near the openers. the line movement is against me in spurs case, but the rest of the lines look fine thus far

[JR007]

the model has stayed consistent so far......no extended losing streaks.............

[bolekblues]

the model has stayed consistent so far......no extended losing streaks.............

Yes it has. I regret i have started betting only after the all-star break when there was about only a 1/3 of a season left, but being confident in its efficiency i was still able to make some nice profit (over 70units, if one wants to convert those into units).

No let's not talk too much about it because everytime i get happy because of something like this it seems to bite me and remind me not to be too complacent too early. we still have some work to do for the remaining 3 weeks.

[JR007]

.......you will have to give me a "quick" lesson in modeling..after the season....

[bolekblues]

.......you will have to give me a "quick" lesson in modeling..after the season....

[bolekblues]

Indiana +2,5 (-105), 9%
LA Clippers -13,5 (-110), 3,5%
Phoenix -7 (-107), 2,5%

[bolekblues]

2011-03-23 results: 5-3
YTD: 83-62-2 (57,2%), +90,1%