Math man NBA 2011 Picks

[million2one]

Math man here, trying my best to create a winning thread.
I've done parlays, money lines, teasers, but all in all haven't found much success.
It seems when I create a thread, I start to lose, so you may want to fade me.

I'll be making straight wagers on the team I think will win that day and has the lowest spread.

I'll also have a mini chase system where I buy three points on the opening line for the team I feel has the most value in the spread.

Fade Away

[million2one]

1/5/:

Straight Bet 1 = Chicago Bulls (-4) risking 1.1 to win 1


System Bet 1 = Atlanta Hawks (+9) risking 1.7 to win 1

[million2one]

1/5/:

Straight Bet 1 = Chicago Bulls (-4) risking 1.1 to win 1


System Bet 1 = Atlanta Hawks (+9) risking 1.7 to win 1

YTD:

Straight Bets = 0 - 1 for -1.1 units

System Bets = 1 - 0 for +1 unit


On another note, why is it that when people keep threads and track their units they are not subtracting the juice? or maybe they are and I am not aware.

[million2one]

1/7:

Straight Bet 2 = Washington Wizards (-4.5) risking 1.1 to win 1


System Bet 2 = Cleveland Cavs (+13.5) risking 1.7 to win 1

[million2one]

1/7:

Straight Bet 2 = Washington Wizards (-4.5) risking 1.1 to win 1


System Bet 2 = Cleveland Cavs (+13.5) risking 1.7 to win 1

1/8:

Straight Bet 3 = Atlanta Hawks (-6.5) risking 1.1 to win 1

System Bet 3 = Memphis Grizzlies (+10) risking 3.4 to win 2

[million2one]

YTD:

Straight Bets = 1 - 1 for -0.1 units

System Bets = 1 - 1 for -0.7 units

[million2one]

1/8:

Straight Bet 3 = Atlanta Hawks (-6.5) risking 1.1 to win 1

System Bet 3 = Memphis Grizzlies (+10) risking 3.4 to win 2

1/9:

Straight Bet 4 = Phoenix Suns (-10) risking 1.1 to win 1

System Bet 4 = Sacramento Kings (+10) risking 1.7 to win 1



YTD:

Straight Bets = 2 - 1 for +0.9 units

System Bets = 2 - 1 for +1.3 units

[million2one]

1/9:

Straight Bet 4 = Phoenix Suns (-10) risking 1.1 to win 1

System Bet 4 = Sacramento Kings (+10) risking 1.7 to win 1

1/10:

Straight Bet 5 = Boston Celtics (-8.5) risking 1.1 to win 1

[million2one]

YTD:

Straight Bets = 2 - 2 for -0.2 units

System Bets = 3 - 1 for +2.3 units

[million2one]

1/10:

Straight Bet 5 = Boston Celtics (-8.5) risking 1.1 to win 1

1/11:

Straight Bet 6 = Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5) risking 1.1 to win 1

System Bet 5 = Cleveland Cavs (+18) risking 1.7 to win 1

[million2one]

YTD:

Straight Bets = 2 - 3 for -1.3 units

System Bets = 3 - 1 for +2.3 units

[jim844]

good luck with the plays tonight
what's the system thinking?

[freeagent]

million, lets get some winners going cuz. I'll check in regularly, my account is in full force now i think. Sixers look like they turned a corner, like the play tonight. Doug Collins is a tremendous coach.

[million2one]

Nice man, cool pic as well.
Iggy is back and I have a feeling they will not play as well tonight, he needs to be traded.

[million2one]

good luck with the plays tonight
what's the system thinking?

My thinking here is I use some basic points scored and allowed statistics to find what I feel is the biggest differential, or value, in the point spread, and then add 3 points on top of that for even more value. Still in its infantile stages.

[freeagent]

thought i'd bring you some good luck chiming in, no sweat we'll get back on the wagon tonight

[million2one]

1/11:

Straight Bet 6 = Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5) risking 1.1 to win 1

System Bet 5 = Cleveland Cavs (+18) risking 1.7 to win 1

Tough night, How does an NBA team score under 60 points, that's an embarrassment.
I think Iggy messed up the rhythm and chemistry of this young Sixers team.
As a sixers fan he needs to be traded.




1/12:

Straight Bet 7: LA Lakers (-4.5) risking 1.3 units to win 1 (Had to buy the point back here)


System Bet 6: NY Knicks (+9.5) risking 3.4 to win 2 units

[million2one]

YTD:

Straight Bet = 2 - 4 for -2.4 units

System Bet = 3 - 2 for +0.6 units


My system pick was a toss up between NYK and Sac-town getting 13, I like the value in both these lines, and am willing to change if anyone can talk me into it. My cash bet may just be a two-team teaser with NYK and SAC.

Thoughts and opinions are much appreciated. Good Luck.

[nah0228]

I like the Knicks tonight. best of luck

[million2one]

1/12:

Straight Bet 7: LA Lakers (-4.5) risking 1.3 units to win 1 (Had to buy the point back here)


System Bet 6: NY Knicks (+9.5) risking 3.4 to win 2 units

That's more like it. The Knickerbockers came through for me and the point that I bought on the Lakers was HUGE. Feels good.

Nothing for today

YTD:

Straight Bet = 3 - 4 for -1.4 units

System Bet = 4 - 2 for +2.6 units

[freeagent]

Good hit yesterday. TNT night in NBA not much action, Barkley's great on there. Keep it rolling my man.

[million2one]

1/14:

Straight Bet 8: Toronto Raptors (-4.5) risking 1.2 units to win 1 unit (Bought the hook to get back to the opening line)

System Bet 7: Dallas Mavericks (+13) risking 1.7 units to win 1 unit

[freeagent]

Wow Mavs line inflated big time with Dirk being out. Division battle of Texas, good rivalry should be a close one.

[million2one]

1/14:

Straight Bet 8: Toronto Raptors (-4.5) risking 1.2 units to win 1 unit (Bought the hook to get back to the opening line)

System Bet 7: Dallas Mavericks (+13) risking 1.7 units to win 1 unit

Wow miracle cover with the Mavs, who else is hurt for them? They have no shot without Dirk.
I am looking to make a big time play today on Chi-town, any thoughts? I'll look at a few more things first

YTD:


Straight Bet = 3 - 5 for -2.6 units

System Bet = 5 - 2 for +3.6 units

[freeagent]

LeBron's doubtful for the chicago game i think. Denver took them apart, 2 straight losses, did LeBron's karma tweet about the Cavs turn on him, haha good drama. You like anything in the NFL, I was gonna go to the Park and put in a BAL +12.5/ GB +11.5/ NE +0.5, a 3 team 10pt teaser wanted to hit it big to ease the pain of that NO ml play. How could that not hit, although i know nothings easy wanted to hammer that big time. Last 7 games Pit/Bal decided like an avg of 4pts, GB hasn't lost a game all year by like 4pts, don't see NE losing.

[million2one]

1/15:

Straight Bet 9: Chicago Bulls (+3) risking 2.2 units to win 2 units

System Bet 8: Minnesota T-wolves (+10.5) risking 1.7 units to win 1 unit

[million2one]

Damn line changed to Bulls -2.5, wish I would of gotten them at the opener.
So in actuality in did a teaser with the Bulls +3 and Baltimore Ravens at +10.
Should be a fun day.

[million2one]

1/15:

Straight Bet 9: Chicago Bulls (+3) risking 2.2 units to win 2 units

System Bet 8: Minnesota T-wolves (+10.5) risking 1.7 units to win 1 unit

Nice day for me, Bulls even covered if you had them at -2.5, I should of taken them bigger on the ML as well, no need to get greedy though, just keep pluggin' away.

Only two games today, but I actually am making a play on both games.

1/16:

Straight Bet 10: LA Lakers (-5.5) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 9: Denver Nuggets (+10.5) risking 1.7 units to win 1 unit

[million2one]

YTD:


Straight Bet = 4 - 5 for -0.6 units

System Bet = 6 - 2 for +4.6 units

[million2one]

LeBron's doubtful for the chicago game i think. Denver took them apart, 2 straight losses, did LeBron's karma tweet about the Cavs turn on him, haha good drama. You like anything in the NFL, I was gonna go to the Park and put in a BAL +12.5/ GB +11.5/ NE +0.5, a 3 team 10pt teaser wanted to hit it big to ease the pain of that NO ml play. How could that not hit, although i know nothings easy wanted to hammer that big time. Last 7 games Pit/Bal decided like an avg of 4pts, GB hasn't lost a game all year by like 4pts, don't see NE losing.

So far so good, lets go New England.

You see I teased the Bulls with Baltimore yesterday, thanks to your advice

[million2one]

1/16:

Straight Bet 10: LA Lakers (-5.5) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 9: Denver Nuggets (+10.5) risking 1.7 units to win 1 unit

Tough night after a fast start by the Nugs, trying again with the Lake show

1/17:

Straight Bet 11: LA Lakers (-4) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 10: Detroit Pistons (+7.5) risking 3.4 units to win 2 units

[million2one]

YTD:

Straight Bets = 4 - 6 for -1.7 units

System Bets = 6 - 3 for +2.9 units

[freeagent]

Looking good for the Pistons up big in the 4th as of now, nice capping. Glad I didn't get to the Park would have been disaster huh, lost all my sbr pts on them damn Patriots, didn't see that coming. Happy MLK Day, keep it rolling!

[million2one]

1/17:

Straight Bet 11: LA Lakers (-4) risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit

System Bet 10: Detroit Pistons (+7.5) risking 3.4 units to win 2 units

Great night going 2 - 0, Detroit was a big time play and would of cashed on the money line
Not much action today so I should just pass, although I am tempted to take the Hawks as a system play, and Chicago at -7, still mulling it
over, and will make official if I decide to play.


YTD:

Straight Bets = 5 - 6 for -0.7 units

System Bets = 7 - 3 for +4.9 units

[million2one]

Looking good for the Pistons up big in the 4th as of now, nice capping. Glad I didn't get to the Park would have been disaster huh, lost all my sbr pts on them damn Patriots, didn't see that coming. Happy MLK Day, keep it rolling!

Thanks man, I have to learn to trust my own numbers and stay away from the NFL and big ML favorites.
My line had Seattle at +3 playing New Orleans, but what do I do, take New Orleans ML like a jackass, and I capped the Jets this past Sunday at +5, but I went and took New England ML.

Let's keep it rolling I am feeling confident right now and determined to make this work.
If I could ever find time I want to start capping NCAA hoops.