NBA picks

adam3248 · 11-17-10, 11:48 AM

will be posting tonight's picks up shortly...

adam3248 · 11-17-10, 12:32 PM

NEW YORK KNICKS @ SACREMENTO KINGS

The total has gone OVER in 10 of New York's last 14 games when playing Sacramento and 5 of the last 7 when playing them on the road .. The Knicks are scoring an average of 101.8ppg so far this season (ranked 12th in NBA) They have an uptempo offense with Amare Stoudemire and young playmaker Ray Felton. They face a Sacremento team that will prefer an uptempo pace to attack a Knicks defense on B2B games off a road trip to Denver last night .. Neither team is impressive on the defensive end (both allowing an average of 105+ ppg and 47+% shooting)

PICK: NY KNICKS @ SAC KINGS OVER 209

Thanks and good luck!

adam3248 · 11-17-10, 12:49 PM

LOS ANGELES LAKERS @ DETROIT PISTONS

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the Lakers last 8 games vs the Pistons and UNDER in 5 of the last 6 when playing on the road vs the Pistons.

In the last 10 games involing these two teams, the total has gone UNDER tonight's posted total of 202.5 10-0! .. The Lakers over this span have averaged 93.7 ppg and the Pistons 92.4 ppg for a combined average total of 186.1 ppg over the last 10 matches.

In the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Detroit we have seen scores of 93-81, 92-77, 89-90, 78-93 and 93-102 creating a combined average total of just 177.6 points!!

We are getting good value with the UNDER here.

PICK: LA LAKERS @ DET PISTONS UNDER 202.5

Thanks and good luck!!

adam3248 · 11-17-10, 01:03 PM

CHICAGO BULLS @ SAN ANTONIO SPURS

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games overall and 4 of the last 5 games on the road vs San Antonio.

Over the last 10 games between these two teams, 9 have gone UNDER tonight's posted total of 204.5 and 1 has gone over (hitting 205). Over this span the Bulls have averaged 90.7 ppg and the Spurs 95.4 ppg combining for an average total of 186.1 ppg!!

In the last 5 games between these two teams in San Antonio we have seen scores of 98-93, 88-98, 79-94, 83-100 and 106-99 combining for an average total of 187.6 ppg!!

Getting good value with the UNDER here.

PICK: CHI BULLS @ SA SPURS UNDER 204.5

thanks and good luck!!

adam3248 · 11-17-10, 01:24 PM

DALLAS MAVERICKS @ NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

I made this same pick the last time these two teams met earlier on this week which resulted in a push (Under 48, and finished on 48) and I see no reason why I shouldn't back it again here for the same reasons as the other night ..

In all 9 games involving the Dallas Mavericks this season the 4th Quarter total has not suppased 42 points (APART FROM last game vs NO Hornets which hit 48 points) .. therefore with Dallas's games going 8-0-1 UNDER tonight's posted 4th Quarter total of 48 so far this season, I see no reason whatsoever as to why I shouldn't jump on board again.

The average 4th quarter total in the 9 games involving Dallas this season is 39.3 points! Getting good value with the 4th Quarter UNDER again here.

PICK: DAL MAVERICKS @ NO HORNETS 4TH QUARTER TOTAL UNDER 48

thanks and good luck!!

adam3248 · 11-17-10, 01:28 PM

HOUSTON ROCKETS @ OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

I think the Thunder are being over-valued here tonight at home and here's why..

Oklahoma are just 3-3 SU at home this season, and its last two home wins came by 6 points & 2 points respectively.

Houston are 71-37 ATS in their last 108 road games after a loss by 6 points or less in their previous game.

Additionally, the Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home matches and 0-7 ATS their last 7 games as favourites.

Finally, the Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.

PICK: HOU Rockets +7 @ OKC Thunder

thanks and good luck!!

figue · 11-17-10, 04:45 PM

adam3248 · 11-17-10, 05:19 PM

NY KNICKS @ SACREMENTO KINGS

There's a nice trend supporting the Knicks in this matchup tonight..

Play against home favourites with a win percentage between 25-40% (Sacremento) after 4 or more consecutive losses coming up against a team with a losing record. This trend is 65-28 ATS cashing 69.9% over the last 5 seasons. (Currently 2-0 ATS this season)

The Knicks are 35-19 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are an impressive 14-3 ATS in road games, following a road game where both teams scored 100+ points over the last 3 seasons.

Additionally, Sacremento is 14-31 ATS in home games after having lost 5 or 6 of their previous 7 games over the last 3 seasons.

(The Kings have failed to cover the spread in 6 consecutive games)

PICK: NY Knicks +4 @ SAC Kings

Thanks and good luck

adam3248 · 11-17-10, 05:20 PM

Quite a few picks I like for tonight.. Don't usually make this many picks in a night but these ones stand out for me.

Here are my final picks for tonight's games:

NY Knicks @ SAC Kings OVER 209
LA Lakers @ DET Pistons UNDER 202.5
CHI Bulls @ SA Spurs UNDER 204.5
DAL Mavericks @ NO Hornets 4th Quarter Total UNDER 48
Houston Rockets +7 @ OKC Thunder
NY Knicks +4 @ SAC Kings

Feel free to post your thoughts..

Lets extend this 21-10-1 winning NBA record with another profitable night tonight!!

Enjoy!!

adam3248 · 11-17-10, 07:06 PM

Bring on tonight's games!

adam3248 · 11-18-10, 04:46 AM

Another profitable night last night as my picks went 4-2, extending my NBA record to 25-12-1 (+10.5 units) 67.57%

Cash 'em in and lets get back on it tonight!!

figue · 11-18-10, 11:56 AM

what do we have for tonigth ??

cario · 11-18-10, 05:27 PM

Hey mate,

just wanted to let u know, that your picks are greatly appreciated here in Amsterdam. Actually,I registered extra for this post. Keep up the good work!!

adam3248 · 11-18-10, 06:49 PM

No picks for tonight

.. Nothing stands out for me in tonight's games and I don't want to force any picks so will pass on tonight's card.

Will be back tomorrow!!

Thanks for all your support

sweetjones55 · 11-18-10, 06:53 PM

Good luck on your plays tonight.

adam3248 · 11-18-10, 06:59 PM

thanks SJ .. not posting tonight though

would be silly for me to post picks 'just for the sake of it' when nothing stands out for me.
I understand you've made picks for tonight..? Orlando -9 I think i noticed on your thread earlier if I remember right and Clippers game OVER?
..Whatever your picks, I wish you the best of luck.

thanks for your support

keep up the good work

adam3248 · 11-19-10, 08:50 AM

Los Angeles Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the last 4 games between these two teams. Although some trends may indicate that the 'over' should be the play for tonight's game, I believe the UNDER is the selection to take, and here's why..

During the last 10 games between these two teams, the Lakers have averaged 108.8 ppg and the Wolves have averaged 96 ppg combining for an average total of 204.8 ppg across this span.

The game total has been set between 210-219 in 5 of the last 10 games between these two teams resulting in 4-0-1 to the UNDER with scores of 219, 200, 193, 200 & 184 averaging a total of 199.2 points in this spot.

Additionally I have seen nothing during the last 10 days (since they last played 94-99) to indicate that this game will go a further 25 points over the previous game total.

I predict a Lakers 111-98 Wolves sort of scoreline.

PICK: LA Lakers @ MIN T'Wolves UNDER 217.5

feel free to post your thoughts..

best of luck!

adam3248 · 11-19-10, 11:44 AM

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Boston Celtics

Oklahoma are 7-4 SU this year. However, they are 0-5 ATS when their opponent scored 100+ points in their previous game. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS when playing with one day of rest and 3-7 ATS their last 10 games overall.

Boston are 9-2 SU this year and 10-4 ATS their last 14 when playing at home vs a team with a winning record on the road. The Celtics are 8-3 ATS when their opponents scored 100+ points in the previous game. Finally, Boston is 7-2 ATS at home vs Oklahoma in their last 9 meetings.

Pick: OKC Thunder @ BOS Celtics -6.5

thanks & good luck!

TheDood · 11-19-10, 12:14 PM

Adam, i've been following you, and you picks seem solid, keep up the good work!

adam3248 · 11-19-10, 12:21 PM

Thanks for your support.. will hopefully have another profitable night tonight

.. one more pick on the way soon to complete my card for tonight's games.

Let's cash 'em in!

TheDood · 11-19-10, 12:29 PM

Definitely!

How many Units are you putting down on each of these tonight?

adam3248 · 11-19-10, 12:33 PM

one unit on each play unless stated otherwise .. BOL

figue · 11-19-10, 01:04 PM

1 unit = ????

TheDood · 11-19-10, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by figue

1 unit = ????

A unit is your flat betting rate... From your bankroll, take 5% - 10% of it, and that's 1 unit. It's pretty much, the amount you put on each bet. If you much know it's a easy win, and you're feel'n pretty crazy that day, you might put down two or three units on a team.

figue · 11-19-10, 01:30 PM

Originally posted by TheDood

A unit is your flat betting rate... From your bankroll, take 5% - 10% of it, and that's 1 unit. It's pretty much, the amount you put on each bet. If you much know it's a easy win, and you're feel'n pretty crazy that day, you might put down two or three units on a team.

adam3248 · 11-19-10, 03:01 PM

Chicago Bulls @ Dallas Mavericks

I will be following the same trend for this matchup that has been so profitable so far this season with games involving the Mavs. Looking at 4th Quarter scores so far this season for Dallas, this is how they read..

24-13 vs DEN
18-21 @ DEN
21-17 @ LAC
15-22 vs MEM
21-19 vs CHA
19-18 vs BOS
20-22 @ MEM
21-15 vs PHI
29-19 vs NOH
28-24 @ NOH

In these 10 games involving the Mavs, the 4th Quarter total has only supassed tonight's posted total of 48.5 once hitting 9-1 UNDER in relation to this total.

The highest 4th Quarter total across this span has been 52 with the average hitting just 40.6 points.

When we look at the 4th Quarter scores for games involving the Mavs playing at home, they have gone 6-0 UNDER tonight's posted total of 48.5 with 48 points being the highest and an average 39.1 points across these games!

Good value again here with the UNDER.

Pick: CHI Bulls @ DAL Mavericks 4th Quarter total UNDER 48.5

thanks and best of luck!

adam3248 · 11-19-10, 03:06 PM

Here is my final card for tonight's games ..

LA Lakers @ MIN T'Wolves UNDER 217.5
OKC Thunder @ BOS Celtics -6.5
CHI Bulls @ DAL Mavericks 4Q total UNDER 48.5

Lets extend this winning record with another profitable night!

Best of luck all! Enjoy!

TheDood · 11-19-10, 03:16 PM

Good Luck!! I've put all of my points down in my SBR Book, If they will, I'll send the winnings your way. (Can't do the under on 4th Q because SBR book doesn't do quarters)

figue · 11-19-10, 03:23 PM

boston is -9 on my book ,is a play ??

adam3248 · 11-19-10, 03:28 PM

Boston -9 is hugely dependant on whether Kevin Durant plays for OKC. He is currently listed as doubtful. If he doesn't play, im confident Boston will win by more than 10. If he does play then Boston -9 is a tough call. Even if Durant does play for the Thunder he will not be 100% for sure so maybe Boston is still the play, BUT, my advice would be to hold fire, wait and see if Durant is playing, if he's not I think it's worth betting Boston -9 and if he does play i'd be tempted to stay away from -9.

figue · 11-19-10, 03:40 PM

thanks

Fresno · 11-19-10, 03:41 PM

STRAIGHT BET
[502] BOS CELTICS -5½-170 (B+3) 3 Units

STRAIGHT BET
[313] FRESNO STATE +31-120 (B+½) 2 Units

STRAIGHT BET
[512] TOTAL u217½-140 (B+1½) 2 Units
(LA LAKERS vrs MIN TIMBERWOLVES

STRAIGHT BET 1 Unit
[6518] TOTAL u48-110
(4Q CHI BULLS vrs 4Q DAL MAVERICKS)

I like to buy points when the numbers align in our favor as you can see. Has paid dividends for me so far the past week when betitng 1 and 2 unit plays. Taking a juicy shot in the Dark with Boston...!

Bought Chicago to +10 the other night, Paid off..... Thanks again for the great capping...

adam3248 · 11-19-10, 04:35 PM

thanks everyone for your support! good luck with all your plays!

figue · 11-19-10, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by adam3248

Boston -9 is hugely dependant on whether Kevin Durant plays for OKC. He is currently listed as doubtful. If he doesn't play, im confident Boston will win by more than 10. If he does play then Boston -9 is a tough call. Even if Durant does play for the Thunder he will not be 100% for sure so maybe Boston is still the play, BUT, my advice would be to hold fire, wait and see if Durant is playing, if he's not I think it's worth betting Boston -9 and if he does play i'd be tempted to stay away from -9.

Oklahoma City Thunder star Kevin Durant is listed as "questionable" for tonight's game against the Celtics at TD Garden, but Oklahoman beat writer Darnell Mayberry wrote that "Durant doesn't seem likely to play." Durant suffered a spraned ankle Wednesday against the Rockets. Durant played through it, but said that it got worse as the game went on.

Forward Jeff Green is also out for Oklahoma City. He has missed five of the last six games with an ankle injury of his own. The Thunder had only four games missed by starters all of last season. Heading into tonight's game that number is already at 13 and rising.

If Durant can't play, this would be the second straight game the Celtics will have missed a marquee opponent. Rookie John Wall sat out Wednesday's game for the Wizards.

adam3248 · 11-19-10, 05:04 PM

I was fortunate enough to get on this early at boston -6.5 and if Durant does't play (looks unlikely that he will) then -6.5 was very good value and I believe -9 will still be worth a bet. However, even if Durant plays and isn't 100% he's such a key player for OKC that i think it would be better to stay clear of this one.

It's entirely up to you of course (whether to risk it and hope he doesn't play), but I would base my decision of taking boston -9 on whether Durant is given the all clear or not.

If Durant is out.. I see a double digit win for the Celtics a high possibility, if he does play then the probability of a double-digit win is significantly reduced.

Are you considering taking them now at -9 then?