John Morrison 2010 NBA

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  • r4z0r1199
    SBR Rookie
    • 12-02-09
    • 22

    #2416
    this system is funny, you invest so lot and you actually can earn so small units of profit while you can lose much.I dont know how you guys even want to bother with it!

    Gl to all today!!
    Comment
    • DustyDiamond
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 12-19-09
      • 772

      #2417
      What is the REAL record for the V1 system?
      Comment
      • MakeItRain14
        SBR High Roller
        • 12-13-10
        • 101

        #2418
        Is jm C plays the strongest? Sorry if I'm a newbi here
        Comment
        • r4z0r1199
          SBR Rookie
          • 12-02-09
          • 22

          #2419
          Originally posted by MakeItRain14
          Is jm C plays the strongest? Sorry if I'm a newbi here
          It should be. But I belive that it has same chance to go like any other.
          Comment
          • JW Cash
            SBR MVP
            • 12-31-08
            • 4453

            #2420
            SweetJones Rocks Big Time.....

            John Morrison couldnt shine his shoes............................
            Comment
            • Wilba
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 10-29-10
              • 702

              #2421
              Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
              Very good Info! I give 10pts for it. No one cares about points, but ill make sure i give you a winning bet in the near future. Let me find one that i can nearly gaurentee first though.

              My own bets went 2-1 today *Dallas lost my parlay. Double digit under dogs went 0-2 for the system, however they would of qualified as TPS and if you were to buy 3pts would of added to more wins to the TPS.

              I Really should start following that system. I just dont know when A B or C is. GSW would of been C wager i think, but looking at past games they lost like 5 games or something as Double digit underdogs.
              i) there is no double digit dog 'system'. There is a double digit dog FACT (that they win a lot more than double digit fav's), but no system.

              ii) if you bought 3 pts (as i suggested quite a while back with heavy dogs) you went 2-0 yesterday on the double digits. lost by 1/2 pt today on wash which was a little unfortunate.

              iii) in the games that I play for the double digit dogs, I am considering stopping playing 10, 10.5, or 11 pt dogs. I am thinking I will only play >11.5 from here on. Thats just me though. My gut says that it is better for greater than 11.5, but I need to look at that further as this is based on my gut feeling over the winners/losers I have seen ONLY this season, so it's not backtested at all.

              Personally though, I know that I am def not gonna play any double digit dogs without getting the spread to 13 or more. For the bigger dogs i might not buy points, but for anything less than 13 I will def buy points tog et to at least 13, personally. My reasoning is, you see so many games won by 11-12-13 points. The coaches tend to take starters out of game if leading by 16-20 points with 1/2 a quarter left.
              Comment
              • soldier1047
                SBR Sharp
                • 10-26-10
                • 332

                #2422
                Originally posted by JW Cash
                I am getting a lot of PM's about what is better .......chasing or Labourchere....



                Check this out....


                I am testing different ways to implement labby...
                -----------------------------------


                OK


                One test had 50% 3 Wins and 3 Losses

                and it had +1.99 Units of Profit!
                --------------

                Another test had 10 Wins and 8 Losses

                and it had +7.5 Units of Profit

                ------------------

                And still another test had 14 Wins and 8 Losses
                and this baby had +13.5 Units of Profit...........

                --------------------


                Cool, huh ????????
                Hey JWcash,

                Can you englighten us on your experiment? Is it using the 3 line labby?
                Comment
                • Wilba
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 10-29-10
                  • 702

                  #2423
                  Originally posted by Kev the Brit
                  ghislaine, If you have to make a choice, and its not always necessary to do so, it is better to play level (flat) bets if your BR is in its early days. Chase betting should be conducted with a very small percentage of the BR. So if your BR is less than $1K, you should only chase $20 (max) at a time, but with the same small BR, you can flat bet $100 and win $150 at a time. You need to follow a good capper when flat betting.

                  GL

                  Kev the bet
                  IMO flat betting for $100 bets with a bankroll under 1K is suicide. There is no way you will not go bankrupt within a relatively short space of time when betting >10% of your roll on every bet.

                  ps Kev - I used the wrong wording in my previous ML filter stats post saying 'any DISPUTE is over'. Well I didnt use the wrong wording, but it was not directed at the recent discussion we had in this thread about the ML filter, just a general comment for anyone who was wondering if it was worth it. Not in anyway directed at you as I realise that all you were asking for was the ML excluded plays be posted with a * or something (which I agreed with anyway. cheers,

                  pps you should all thank krzychu78 for the ML research he did. Stuff like that is quite time consuming (fyi for those who have never backtested) and clearly it was very useful info to us all. GOOD ON YOU krzychu78 !!!

                  ppps JM disciple - I think maybe the other guys have a point about posting personal plays. I think that you and your plays are great, but the admin guys tend to get a little shitty if the threads stray off topic. Do you know how to set your own thread up? you should do that because you plays seem quite decent.

                  pppps GGplayer I completely agree with u about your twolves 1-10 on road comment. In the NBA, SU wins/losses have no relevance to anything whatsoever betting wise. The ATS really is all that is relevant for betting purposes. Unless you are playing ML's of course! but who plays ML's in NBA??? (to emphasize this point, 2 years ago OKC were pretty mjuch the worst team in the league SU, but were nearly the very best ATS! Often see this, also see good teams with bad ATS records all the time)

                  Twolves going shot for shot at the moment with GS. Go Twolves!
                  Comment
                  • Wilba
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 10-29-10
                    • 702

                    #2424
                    Originally posted by r4z0r1199
                    It should be. But I belive that it has same chance to go like any other.
                    a decade of stats says otherwise



                    thats why books make money from ppl like you
                    Comment
                    • Wilba
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 10-29-10
                      • 702

                      #2425
                      Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                      no one is argueing that.
                      didnt you argue just a few posts ago that if a team has a top player out that the series should be abandoned?

                      you do realise that this was the same as the ML filter - JM just brought it in to protect his record and erase a system loss (after the fact)

                      none of the provided backtesting takes into account this filter, and it is part of JM's 'NBA loss erasing system', not part of the NBA 3 game roadtrip system.

                      I just play the system. I never worry about capping, I never worry about if the line looks good or not, I never worry about if JM does/doesnt send an email, or whether he sends the system play with or without a 'this is a lock' message attached just below it. And guess what....

                      the system works!
                      Comment
                      • JW Cash
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-31-08
                        • 4453

                        #2426
                        Originally posted by soldier1047
                        Hey JWcash,

                        Can you englighten us on your experiment? Is it using the 3 line labby?


                        No soldier......this was done on a 1 Line Labby.....



                        I see huge possibilities with this..........
                        Comment
                        • JW Cash
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-31-08
                          • 4453

                          #2427
                          Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                          50-26 (66%) +31.8 units

                          50-26 (66%) +31.8 units
                          for Sweet Jones..............
                          I will start following.

                          JM is on Min, SBP is on gsw.




                          SJ wins again tonight with Denver 2H !!!!
                          Comment
                          • Andy3568
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 01-17-10
                            • 615

                            #2428
                            Originally posted by Wilba
                            didnt you argue just a few posts ago that if a team has a top player out that the series should be abandoned?

                            you do realise that this was the same as the ML filter - JM just brought it in to protect his record and erase a system loss (after the fact)

                            none of the provided backtesting takes into account this filter, and it is part of JM's 'NBA loss erasing system', not part of the NBA 3 game roadtrip system.

                            I just play the system. I never worry about capping, I never worry about if the line looks good or not, I never worry about if JM does/doesnt send an email, or whether he sends the system play with or without a 'this is a lock' message attached just below it. And guess what....

                            the system works!
                            Which system? V1, V2 or V3?

                            Also, all systems (V1, V2 & V3) say to bet the A-B-C in a 3-game chase. You posted earlier that playing only the B and C games is more profitable. Is this still the case? How about playing only the C games?
                            Comment
                            • JW Cash
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-31-08
                              • 4453

                              #2429
                              Anyone else getting dizzy with all this V 1...V 2.....V3 stuff
                              basically asked over and over again, day after day, week after week ?????

                              And its 2 months into the season........why dont people have a handle on it yet.........
                              Comment
                              • chilidog
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 04-05-09
                                • 10305

                                #2430
                                Originally posted by JW Cash
                                Anyone else getting dizzy with all this V 1...V 2.....V3 stuff
                                basically asked over and over again, day after day, week after week ?????

                                And its 2 months into the season........why dont people have a handle on it yet.........
                                Yah, I don't get it. And people trying to complicate the system already. It doesn't need any modifications. It works. It's been backtested. Our bankrolls reflect that it works. K.I.S.S.
                                Comment
                                • kcDdegenerate
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-07-09
                                  • 3157

                                  #2431
                                  Comment
                                  • JW Cash
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-31-08
                                    • 4453

                                    #2432
                                    Originally posted by stevex
                                    I don't understand why there's such confusion in here. A team has 3 road games in a row, you buy 3 points on the spread or you don't buy the points, whats the problem?


                                    I agree...........I dont get it



                                    .............will be throwing you some points soon!
                                    Comment
                                    • Wilba
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 10-29-10
                                      • 702

                                      #2433
                                      Originally posted by Andy3568
                                      Which system? V1, V2 or V3?

                                      Also, all systems (V1, V2 & V3) say to bet the A-B-C in a 3-game chase. You posted earlier that playing only the B and C games is more profitable. Is this still the case? How about playing only the C games?
                                      If it was the case over a decade, it can not possibly change over a few weeks. A decade's stats can not be changed by a few weeks results.

                                      I would not play only C personally. You would get so little action + risk hitting a statistical anomoly with so few bets.

                                      all of your questions are answered by simply reading the thread. I won't post the same thing more than 3 times sorry
                                      Comment
                                      • shermanator
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 02-27-10
                                        • 510

                                        #2434
                                        Minnesota [C] bet tomorrow
                                        Comment
                                        • imotiv8
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 12-28-09
                                          • 892

                                          #2435
                                          Isnt clev a c bet too
                                          Comment
                                          • Wilba
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 10-29-10
                                            • 702

                                            #2436
                                            UPCOMING BETS TOMORROW:

                                            #1: V2 Cleveland Cavaliers C bet: wow what an unbelievable bet! because..

                                            it is 'Stanley77 approved!' which means that by his rules the series will definitely not lose (but only if you make it a 4 game chase!)

                                            but anyway, the main reason why I say what a great bet is a) it is a V2 C bet, and b) the spread is +17.5!!!!! +17.5 road dogs have covered 63.2% of games ALL TIME! (w/ no points!!!) I am prepared to say with high confidence that SBP will have this as his C bet tomorrow as well as JM, if my understanding of him is right - that he plays key point spread. +17.5 road dog is THE best point spread of all time that I am aware of, statistically. 63.2% for blind betting a point spread really is an incredible number. This is close to 2 out of every 3 winning w/ no points!

                                            Please note though that there is no such thing as a 'lock!'. though IMO this is as close a thing as there ever is to a 'lock'. The only thing which makes me at all cautious is the cleveland/Lebron factor. Even if Miami up by 20 late in 4th, Lebron will wanna win by 30. outstanding value in this IMO though. not that opinion is relevant to anything with JM sys tho!

                                            #2: V3 Minnesota Timberwolves C bet: no spread released yet, (will be +9.5 or +10 tho) good because
                                            i) it's a C bet (although V3 C's not as strong statistically as V1/2), and
                                            ii)it is a Stanley77 approved series which means that you can play it without risk of being chastized by Stanley if the bet does not cover!

                                            #3: V3 Sacramento Kings B bet. no spread released. as far as unreliable series' go this is as unreliable as it comes, statistically speaking of course.

                                            heavy action tomorrow. Lets hope for 3/3 and a nice bankroll boost! Or at least 2/2 on the ones that really matter!
                                            Comment
                                            • ghislaine
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-14-10
                                              • 1131

                                              #2437
                                              so I said earlier that I am basically following
                                              JM sports betting champ
                                              JM sports picks buffet
                                              Sports Betting Professor
                                              SJ55

                                              but seriously, if we lose these two C bets tonight, I will be dropping JM sports betting champ as unprofitable
                                              This is just for me, but sports picks buffet and SBR have been somewhat profitable, as for Sweet Jones, well You all know whats going
                                              on there - this guy is on FIRE
                                              Comment
                                              • J.M. Disciple
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 11-16-10
                                                • 5154

                                                #2438
                                                I wont post any more of my plays, since it is clogging the thread.

                                                I will argue the fact that i do agree with most people here about not playing the ML and buying 3pts instead, that much i can agree with.

                                                However, I think the efficiency rule for the best player on the team is a good filter. I do not believe the lines change big enough to cover most spreads especially for teams that are under .500. This is just my opinion though. I only say below .500 because Denver was one of the few C bets that covered with the best player on the team out.

                                                If some one has this efficiency filtered back tested like the ML was back tested and proved wrong, then ill will respectfully apologize once again.

                                                As for the Double digit under dogs wilba i believe you said around 58% with out buying points. Ill check my messages again, but i do believe that is what i read. Ill start buying 3pts for now on to get it above +13 though.

                                                Minnesota [C] +12.5 bet vs Phoenix ............80% to win
                                                Cleveland [C] +20 bet vs Miami.................80% to win
                                                SAC [B] vs NOH...............................67% to win **Evans is still out for Wed should not bet on this.

                                                Charlotte [A] vs Memphis............Losing play at 61% after buying 3pts @ -170 odds. Need at least 63%
                                                L.A. Clippers [A] vs Philadelphia ...Losing play at 61% after buying 3pts @ -170 odds. Need at least 63%
                                                Comment
                                                • J.M. Disciple
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 11-16-10
                                                  • 5154

                                                  #2439
                                                  Originally posted by ghislaine
                                                  so I said earlier that I am basically following
                                                  JM sports betting champ
                                                  JM sports picks buffet
                                                  Sports Betting Professor
                                                  SJ55

                                                  but seriously, if we lose these two C bets tonight, I will be dropping JM sports betting champ as unprofitable
                                                  This is just for me, but sports picks buffet and SBR have been somewhat profitable, as for Sweet Jones, well You all know whats going
                                                  on there - this guy is on FIRE
                                                  the tripple play system is great also. i believe wilba said not to follow the buffet picks from JM because they have been unprofitable in the past. I also found this true from the little time i used it. He was often hitting only 50% which will net you a good loss by end of the season.

                                                  Tripple play system is betting on double digit under dogs and buying 3pts against the spread. Also the money line must be at least +500 for this system to hold true. It is a chase system, so some times the series might drag on for a while. I heard you have to continue to bet on the same team for the chase to be effective.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • J.M. Disciple
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 11-16-10
                                                    • 5154

                                                    #2440
                                                    Sj55 has Boston -3 for tomorrow. So we have two C bets and SJ55 for tomorrow. Stay away from A bets and bet to win 2 units on B bets and cover your losses and show a 2 unit profit on C. Its more profitable then betting on A b and C.

                                                    so 3bets for tomorrow.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Wilba
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 10-29-10
                                                      • 702

                                                      #2441
                                                      Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

                                                      As for the Double digit under dogs wilba i believe you said around 58% with out buying points. Ill check my messages again, but i do believe that is what i read. Ill start buying 3pts for now on to get it above +13 though.
                                                      Yup that is absolutely right. For the period I tested they hit 58.1% with no points. And that other stats posted about the exact pointspreads (which I think were from SBP) back up that number exactly. But of course if u buy points the win % increases by a fair bit. Cant give the exact numbers as I have not tested, but at a guess I would estimate 67-70% when buying 3 points. If/when i do test that and can give an exact figure ill post what i find
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Wilba
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 10-29-10
                                                        • 702

                                                        #2442
                                                        Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                                                        i believe wilba said not to follow the buffet picks from JM because they have been unprofitable in the past. I also found this true from the little time i used it. He was often hitting only 50% which will net you a good loss by end of the season.
                                                        nope must have been someone else that said that, wasnt me. But I have been tracking them this season and they are actually hitting well below 50%. Fairly big loss if you played every buffet pick this season. The MLB buffet in MLB season was good however, that did quite well (about +30 units off top of my head)

                                                        cheers
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Wilba
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 10-29-10
                                                          • 702

                                                          #2443
                                                          Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                                                          Sj55 has Boston -3 for tomorrow. So we have two C bets and SJ55 for tomorrow. Stay away from A bets and bet to win 2 units on B bets and cover your losses and show a 2 unit profit on C. Its more profitable then betting on A b and C.

                                                          so 3bets for tomorrow.
                                                          sorry but thats not entirely true - only betting B/C is only more profitable if you risk the same amount on the series as if you played all the way from A. Risking the same amount on each series when playing from B for most people equates to playing to win 3 units from B. Depending on the juice you pay for 3 points. As a general rule, if you only play from B and play to win 3 units, you will risk about the same as playing from A to win 1 unit.

                                                          Clearly if you risk less on the series you will win less, even if only play from B. But if you have the SAME series risk, you make more playing only from B.

                                                          cheers JM, please let us know if/when you set up a thread for your picks as I would be interested in tracking
                                                          Comment
                                                          • cmdyrds
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 08-20-09
                                                            • 522

                                                            #2444
                                                            i trust everyone is on the clippers today as a V1 a bet?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • hagball52
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 09-22-10
                                                              • 3053

                                                              #2445
                                                              Originally posted by cmdyrds
                                                              i trust everyone is on the clippers today as a V1 a bet?
                                                              Yeah, although no email from jm yet. He might still be trying to shake off that last [C] bet loss.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • krzychu78
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 01-08-10
                                                                • 291

                                                                #2446
                                                                JM's NBA V3 system:
                                                                12/14/2010 Minnesota @ Golden State - V3, B bet - LOSS
                                                                12/14/2010 Sacramento @ Houston - V3, A bet - unofficial - PUSH

                                                                V3 record so far (finished series): 17-1
                                                                (A): 11-7
                                                                (B): 6-1
                                                                (C): 0-1

                                                                V3 plays for today:
                                                                12/15/2010 Minnesota @ Phoenix - V3, C bet
                                                                12/15/2010 Sacramento @ New Orleans - V3, B bet - Sacramento is unofficial because of absence of Tyreke Evans
                                                                12/15/2010 Charlotte @ Memphis - V3, A bet
                                                                Comment
                                                                • J.M. Disciple
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 11-16-10
                                                                  • 5154

                                                                  #2447
                                                                  Was Sac really a push yesterday? On Covers.com vs houston i see the spread at +9.5, so 12.5 after buying 3pts which would make it a loss.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • krzychu78
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 01-08-10
                                                                    • 291

                                                                    #2448
                                                                    Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
                                                                    Was Sac really a push yesterday? On Covers.com vs houston i see the spread at +9.5, so 12.5 after buying 3pts which would make it a loss.
                                                                    I think it was. I didn't play it but i've checked lines and opening spread was +10 at several bookies.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • J.M. Disciple
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 11-16-10
                                                                      • 5154

                                                                      #2449
                                                                      Originally posted by Wilba
                                                                      sorry but thats not entirely true - only betting B/C is only more profitable if you risk the same amount on the series as if you played all the way from A. Risking the same amount on each series when playing from B for most people equates to playing to win 3 units from B. Depending on the juice you pay for 3 points. As a general rule, if you only play from B and play to win 3 units, you will risk about the same as playing from A to win 1 unit.

                                                                      Clearly if you risk less on the series you will win less, even if only play from B. But if you have the SAME series risk, you make more playing only from B.

                                                                      cheers JM, please let us know if/when you set up a thread for your picks as I would be interested in tracking

                                                                      Ok I set up my own thread.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • jmjj
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 11-17-10
                                                                        • 172

                                                                        #2450
                                                                        anyone been sent the official email yet or he hasnt gotten it done yet?
                                                                        Comment
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