Sj55 nba playoff picks

[No coincidences]

I am highly considering playing Boston 2Q -0.5. LA lost their last 1st quarter but don't lose too many 1Q's in a row. Boston is far from a great 1Q team but are the best 2Q team in the NBA. Boston is 3-0 SU their last 3 2nd quarters at home vs LA. LA has not been a good 2Q team at all in the playoffs. Boston has been great overall in the 2Q in the playoffs. If someone can come up with LA's 2Q numbers and Boston's 2Q numbers for these playoffs that would be great, if not I will get to that tomorrow morning. If someone does do it please factor in the fact that LA was favored by 1.5 on a lot of 2Q's at home against PHX, OKC, and Utah. The line won't be out for a while so it's not too big a deal. I can just see LA probably coming out and putting pressure on the Celtics and winning the 1Q as they usually do and then Boston coming out and doing what they do in the 2Q and winning it.

The big thing with 2Q's is a lot of it rides on the benches/role players and these particular players play much, much better at home than they do on the road. Players like Tony Allen, Big Baby, Nate Robinson, even Perkins play soo much better at home. Lamar Odom is a much better home player than road player as is Vujacic and Shannon Brown. Kobe Bryant plays the full 1Q but sits out the first 6 minutes of the 2Q so that's another + to this bet. Boston doesn't sit it's starters for as much of the 2Q as the Lakeshow does. I haven't taken this 2Q bet yet but I have been banging myself on the head soooo much because I always want to play it but just don't because I haven't played much 2Q's all year long. I have been mostly a 1Q guy.

Last night was definitely an aberration with LAL losing the 1Q and Boston losing the 2nd.

[sweetjones55]

SJ, after watching last night's game, how are you feeling about your other official pick -- Lakers for the series?

Boston is a very good team. I expected to win one out of four on the road. They will have to close out LA on the road though bc the Lakers will take one in Boston and I don't see the Celtics getting crowned in the Staples Center

[Goat Milk]

Boston is a very good team. I expected to win one out of four on the road. They will have to close out LA on the road though bc the Lakers will take one in Boston and I don't see the Celtics getting crowned in the Staples Center

You might want to rephrase that. Game 6 in LA will be Boston's game 7 just like in 08.

[fly fisher]

Last night was definitely an aberration with LAL losing the 1Q and Boston losing the 2nd.

you are right NC but fortunately Celtics were getting +1.5 in 2nd so I won that one to cover my Laker first qtr loss.

[sweetjones55]

You might want to rephrase that. Game 6 in LA will be Boston's game 7 just like in 08.

LA will not lose two straight at home to close off the season. They will win game 6.

[sweetjones55]

Amazing stats, SJ, no doubt that you are one of the best, if not the best, capper on this forum. Keep up the good work!

I try my best. Thanks for the shout out.

[fly fisher]

LA will not lose two straight at home to close off the season. They will win game 6.

[sweetjones55]

Ok so hopefully this is of some use. I wanted to just make sure I wasn't crazy and that Boston was continuing their 2Q domination through the playoffs. Here are the stats. Boston is 14-5 ATS in the 2Q so far in these playoffs, that's hitting at a cool 74%! They are 6-3 ATS at home hitting at 67% in the 2Q. Sorry if it is a bit confusing. You got the score, then the team that covered the 2Q and then if it was a home or away game for Boston.

15-13 heat home
26-10 boson home
21-20 boston road
25-18 boston road
19-17 boston home
4-1 Boston 2Q, 2-1 Boston 2Q at home, 2-0 Boston road 2Q

28-23 boston road
26-26 boston road (covered)
29-26 cleav home (smokejob game 3)
23-23 boston home (covered were +1.5, +0.5 2Q)
30-21 boston road
27-26 cleave home
4-2 Boston 2Q, 1-2 2Q at home, 3-0 Boston road 2Q

19-18 boston road
26-23 boston road
24-22 boston home
21-20 boston home
22-26 orlando road
25-23 boston home
5-1 Boston 2Q, 3-0 Boston 2Q at home, 2-1 Boston 2Q on road

24-20 LA road
26-25 Boston road
1-1 Boston 2Q, 1-1 Boston 2Q on road

[lakerboy]

SJ la wont win the title without winning two games in Boston. The good thing is they will win 2 games in Boston.

[sweetjones55]

LA is just 4-4 in the 2Q so far in the playoffs on the road. Two of those wins came against a weak 2Q team in Utah. Discredit that series and they are just 2-4 in the playoffs so far on the road in the 2Q. Here are those results thanks to suited pair.
Lakers 2nd quarter. Their points are in bold.

Oklahoma Series
Game 1: 26-20
Game 2: 29-19
Game 3: 23-21
Game 4: 25-26
Game 5: 18-24
Game 6: 27-20

Utah Series
Game 1: 22-23
Game 2: 23-31
Game 3: 33-32
Game 4: 29-17

Phoenix Series
Game 1: 29-27
Game 2: 33-29
Game 3: 15-25
Game 4: 32-41
Game 5: 24-29
Game 6: 28-19

Boston Series
Game 1 26-25
Game 2 24-20

[sweetjones55]

SJ la wont win the title without winning two games in Boston. The good thing is they will win 2 games in Boston.

I completely disagree with you on that. I think LA will win game 6 no matter what and will definitely win at least one (maybe 2) in Boston. That leaves it at Game 7 in LA. They will not lose that game because they are the better team with the best player in the world, best coach in the world, arguably the best PF in the world and the best 6th man in the world.

You may be saying that now but let's see where you're money is really at if LA only wins one in Boston. You will not bet Boston ML in Game 6 and you sure as hell won't bet Boston ML in Game 7.

Everyone is making it seem impossible for LA to win 3 out of 4 at home, I don't understand it. They are by far right now the best home team in the NBA and it's not even close.

[lakerboy]

I completely disagree with you on that. I think LA will win game 6 no matter what and will definitely win one in Boston. That leaves it at Game 7 in LA. They will not lose that game because they are the better team with the best player in the world, best coach in the world, arguably the best PF in the world and the best 6th man in the world.

I disagree. They wont come home down 3-2 and win the series. They will take games 3 and 5 in beantown. This isn the first time a Phil coached team is 1-1 heading for 3 on the road in the finals. His record in those spots is impeccable.

1991- won all 3 in la after 1-1 split
1992- won 3 and 5 in rip city after 1-1 split
1998- won 2 of 3 in salt lake after 1-1 split
2001 - won all 3 in philly after 1-1 split



he did get clobbered by the pistons after a 1-1 split in 04 but i like the lakers to win 2 of 3 there.

[Goat Milk]

Bro Boston is winning game 6 in LA

[sweetjones55]

I disagree. They wont come home down 3-2 and win the series. They will take games 3 and 5 in beantown. This isn the first time a Phil coached team is 1-1 heading for 3 on the road in the finals. His record in those spots is impeccable.

1991- won all 3 in la after 1-1 split
1992- won 3 and 5 in rip city after 1-1 split
1998- won 2 of 3 in salt lake after 1-1 split
2001 - won all 3 in philly after 1-1 split



he did get clobbered by the pistons after a 1-1 split in 04 but i like the lakers to win 2 of 3 there.

We have to agree to disagree to an extent on the LA coming home down 3-2 and winning but in the end you and I both think LA wins it all so that's all that matters.

[t-wizzle]

I disagree. They wont come home down 3-2 and win the series. They will take games 3 and 5 in beantown. This isn the first time a Phil coached team is 1-1 heading for 3 on the road in the finals. His record in those spots is impeccable.

1991- won all 3 in la after 1-1 split
1992- won 3 and 5 in rip city after 1-1 split
1998- won 2 of 3 in salt lake after 1-1 split
2001 - won all 3 in philly after 1-1 split



he did get clobbered by the pistons after a 1-1 split in 04 but i like the lakers to win 2 of 3 there.

LB, don't you think you kinda manipulated the '98 and '01 series? In 1998, the Jazz had the home court so Games 3, 4, and 5 were in Chicago. In 2001, the Lakers were by far the superior team and by far the best team in the league. I loved that Sixers team and they played their hearts out but they if they were going to win a game that series, it was gonna be by stealing Game 1. After that, there was no way LA was going to lose a game.

[sweetjones55]

Bro Boston is winning game 6 in LA

We'll see about that, LA loses two straight home playoff games? I don't think so. I'd like to know the last time that happened. I'd also like to know when was the last time they lost two straight home NBA finals games.

[lakerboy]

LB, don't you think you kinda manipulated the '98 and '01 series? In 1998, the Jazz had the home court so Games 3, 4, and 5 were in Chicago. In 2001, the Lakers were by far the superior team and by far the best team in the league. I loved that Sixers team and they played their hearts out but they if they were going to win a game that series, it was gonna be by stealing Game 1. After that, there was no way LA was going to lose a game.

My mistake for the 98 series. I guess you can tell me that Boston is better than all those other teams as well and say the Bulls had MJ.

[t-wizzle]

My mistake for the 98 series. I guess you can tell me that Boston is better than all those other teams as well and say the Bulls had MJ.

No, I like seeing these past finals series for Phil. It's very useful to see how he has done in prior circumstances because scenarios seem to repeat when it comes to Phil.

[sweetjones55]

Guys let's be serious, Boston got lucky in game 2 bottomline. Boston shot 68% from 3 point land, that is 26% better than what they should from the field, 42%. That is unheard of and will not happen again. Even with that 3 point barrage, the Lakers could have easily won that game shooting 40% from the field and only 22% from 3's. Ron Artest, Derrick Fisher, and Lamar Odom easily had their worst games of the playoffs and again they still had a great chance to win.

LA is just a way better team. Everyone is hopping off the LA bandwagon as usual after one bad night, watch what they do once you start doubting them.

I just went in and put another 10 Units on Los Angeles Lakers Series Price. I now have

Lakers -190 Series Price (10X) LOCKED
Lakers -135 Series Price (10X) LOCKED

[sweetjones55]

NBA FINALS CARD
Lakers -190 Series Price (10X) LOCKED
Lakers -135 Series Price (10X)LOCKED
Lakers -1.5 1st Quarter Game 1 BIG (4X) LOCKED WINNER!!
Celtics Team Total OVER 92.5 (3X) LOCKED WINNER!!

+7 UNITS NBA Finals
(My biggest plays are about 5 units, occasional 10-15 on game of the year kind of plays that are like once every two months to give you an idea of what those units mean)

[t-wizzle]

Let me guess, Boston has been lucky this entire playoffs and they were lucky back in '08 right?

Let's face it, when the Lakers are on, they are unbeatable. But who's to say they didn't get lucky in Game 5 vs. Phoenix? The suns badly outplayed them in the fourth only to get beat on the putback by Artest. Why is it that when the Lakers lose, the other team was lucky? Boston made the big plays and they deserved to win. Their defense isn't as good as it was in '08, but they still did some very subtle things that made things difficult for the Lakers. I think the biggest problem the Celtics D posed for LA was when Pau would get the ball down low; when he tried to post up, the Celtics would wait for him to make a move and then quickly double-team him when he wasn't ready and it cause a lot of chaos and resulted in some turnovers/bad shots.

[sweetjones55]

Let me guess, Boston has been lucky this entire playoffs and they were lucky back in '08 right?

Let's face it, when the Lakers are on, they are unbeatable. But who's to say they didn't get lucky in Game 5 vs. Phoenix? The suns badly outplayed them in the fourth only to get beat on the putback by Artest. Why is it that when the Lakers lose, the other team was lucky? Boston made the big plays and they deserved to win. Their defense isn't as good as it was in '08, but they still did some very subtle things that made things difficult for the Lakers. I think the biggest problem the Celtics D posed for LA was when Pau would get the ball down low; when he tried to post up, the Celtics would wait for him to make a move and then quickly double-team him when he wasn't ready and it cause a lot of chaos and resulted in some turnovers/bad shots.

When the Lakers lose I don't always say the other team got lucky. The Thunder straight up beat the Lakers in game 3 and 4. The Suns beat them straight up in their wins also. But this one was just straight up lucky. No team in the NBA can shoot 68% from 3's without getting lucky, that never happens.

Not only did they shoot 68% but three of the Lakers key players had their worst game of the playoffs all in the same game. That is something else that is rare to happen. OK, if one guy has his worst game in one game then that's fine. Maybe two guys have absolutely horrendous games. But three key guys all having their worst game of the playoffs in the same game is not normal, Boston got lucky.

[dume walker]

Thanks for the analysis, SJ. Let us know if and when you're ready to pull the trigger on Boston 2Q and what kind of spread you'd feel comfortable with on that.

[t-wizzle]

Ok and what about the insane free throw disparity? If not for the last minute and a half when the Lakers had to have intentionally fouled at least 5 times, they would have shot about 25 more free throws. There's a reason the Celtics shot so well from 3... most of the shots were pretty wide open and made when Rondo would drive then kick out. Also, a guy named Ray Allen (probably the best 3-point shooter of all time) made 8 of them. You give Ray Allen open 3s and he's going to kill you. Even if Fisher was there, it doesn't matter because of the height advantage.

[sweetjones55]

Thanks for the analysis, SJ. Let us know if and when you're ready to pull the trigger on Boston 2Q and what kind of spread you'd feel comfortable with on that.

The spread is dropping for the full game so I will probably wait a while to see if I can get a better 2Q line. I fully expect a Boston -0.5 line though, I don't see how it could possibly be -1 and it definitely can't be a PK line.

I just really don't see Boston losing three straight 2Q's with them being the best 2Q team in the regular season and now in the playoffs as well.

[sweetjones55]

Ok and what about the insane free throw disparity? If not for the last minute and a half when the Lakers had to have intentionally fouled at least 5 times, they would have shot about 25 more free throws. There's a reason the Celtics shot so well from 3... most of the shots were pretty wide open and made when Rondo would drive then kick out. Also, a guy named Ray Allen (probably the best 3-point shooter of all time) made 8 of them. You give Ray Allen open 3s and he's going to kill you. Even if Fisher was there, it doesn't matter because of the height advantage.

I absolutely knew someone was going to put out the free throw discrepancy card but that is something that will continue for the Lakers every game. The Lakers did not get lucky to go to the line more often. They attack the basket more often and will always go to the line more with their huge height advantage. If you didn't expect a huge free throw discrepancy in this series then you don't know these teams that well.

Let's see if the Celtics ever shoot 67% again, I will give you 5-1 odds and match any amount you want that the Celtics don't shoot 67%+ again with that guy named Ray Allen and Rondo causing havoc getting into the lane. The Lakers are the best team in the NBA when it comes to closing out on three pointers IMO. They had one bad game defending the 3, it won't happen again to that extent.

[Goat Milk]

We'll see about that, LA loses two straight home playoff games? I don't think so. I'd like to know the last time that happened. I'd also like to know when was the last time they lost two straight home NBA finals games.

SJ whatever the circumstance. Game 6 in LA will be Bostons game 7 no matter what. They're gonna win that game. If LA doesn't win 2 in Bos then they will lose game 6 probably and lose the series. I still like LA in 7. We'll see how it plays out.

[t-wizzle]

SJ, i don't think we will see a 67% shooting performance again, but it's not like they made 15-20 3s. They only made 11. I'd say it's a safe bet to say that Boston will have another game where they make double-digit 3s.

[sweetjones55]

SJ whatever the circumstance. Game 6 in LA will be Bostons game 7 no matter what. They're gonna win that game. If LA doesn't win 2 in Bos then they will lose game 6 probably and lose the series. I still like LA in 7. We'll see how it plays out.

I think you guys are dead wrong, how can you see LA losing two straight home playoff games to an inferior team? LA is clearly the better team. They got the two best players on the court, a better coach, a better center, and the best bench player.

[sweetjones55]

I am liking the conversation in here by the way guys, this should happen more often. All opinions are always welcomed in here as long as you give a little bit of reasoning behind what you say.

[t-wizzle]

They have the best player on the court, not necessarily a better x's and o's coach, a wash at center, and a good bench that is much better at home.

[t-wizzle]

I am liking the conversation in here by the way guys, this should happen more often. All opinions are always welcomed in here.

[Goat Milk]

I think you guys are dead wrong, how can you see LA losing two straight home playoff games to an inferior team? LA is clearly the better team. They got the two best players on the court, a better coach, a better center, and the best bench player.

I know Phil's move step by step my man and I am a nba hood rat the guy is a great coach but Rivers is way better at motivating his guys. Phil's adjustments are easy to read if you watch nba your whole life.

Kobe will win this series on his own. Celtics will win game 6 and I will put a lot of money on that game.

Nate Robinson will have a few big games at home. Odom has been the biggest scrub thus far. Will he play well in a place where he never plays well?

[Pauulzcappin]

I'm watching the tape of the 2nd game right now, for the second time... it's amazing how many times Rondo drove in the paint.

If Phil doesn't make some adjustments regarding that, Lakers might lose again.

[sweetjones55]

I know Phil's move step by step my man and I am a nba hood rat the guy is a great coach but Rivers is way better at motivating his guys. Phil's adjustments are easy to read if you watch nba your whole life.

It almost sounds like you think you can outcoach Phil Jackson. Doc Rivers is a very good coach but he isn't on Phil's level.