Sj55 nba playoff picks

[sweetjones55]

Honestly, I really don't have a read on the series, I have a hard time with laker games. Boston plus the points though in gm 1 seems to be my only lean so far.

Ok, I really don't have any feel for the full game but for that 1Q I think the Lakers will be themselves in game 1's at home and take care of business early. Phil Jackson ALWAYS stresses winning that 1Q and setting the tempo and it shows with the Lakers at home so far in the playoffs. They have yet to lose a 1Q at home have won by 3 or more in every 1Q. Boston is the best 2Q team so I think they make a run back in that quarter

[dume walker]

So you think Boston makes a good run in the 2nd Q but not so confident that you're willing to put some coin on it?

As for your handicapping withdrawal symptoms... What happened to your capping the WNBA?

[lyon804]

Man this no basketball business sucks so badly, I got nothing to do this late at night. Usually I am up looking at the next nights game right now.

Just read this quote I liked, post your favorite quotes now til thursday. If I like it I'll throw you ten points.

"Only a life lived for others is a life worthwhile"

I got one for you SJ



So much of our time is preparation, so much is routine, and so much retrospect, that the path of each man's genius contracts itself to a very few hours...



Emerson-Author

[shoebox]

Here you go SJ my favorite quote



"Give every man thy ear, but few thy voice."


William Shakespeare

[dume walker]

"Adversity excites the talent that lies waiting within you."

Unknown football coach

"Become the change you want to bring about in the world."

Gandhi

[sweetjones55]

"Adversity excites the talent that lies waiting within you."

I wish most bettors felt this way. You see so many people face adversity and just start to lose all faith in their talent instead of realizing the mistake you made and learning from it to make you much better in the long run.

[sweetjones55]

Another question for everyone, What lesson did you learn this year in the NBA?

I think the biggest lesson I learned is when you are betting on an inferior team at home against a better team to always consider the inferior home team for the 1H instead of full game.

A good example would be the Menphis Grizzles -1 at home against the Lakers.. If Memphis wants a chance late they have to play well in the 1H. But the inferior teams usually crumble late in the game.

[sweetjones55]

I also learned to ALWAYS consider the 1Q and 1H of every team I like. Early in my betting days I would always just play full game lines.

[sweetjones55]

One more thing, any +1.5 team just take the moneyline 99% of the time.

[lyon804]

Another question for everyone, What lesson did you learn this year in the NBA?

I think the biggest lesson I learned is when you are betting on an inferior team at home against a better team to always consider the inferior home team for the 1H instead of full game.

A good example would be the Menphis Grizzles -1 at home against the Lakers.. If Memphis wants a chance late they have to play well in the 1H. But the inferior teams usually crumble late in the game.

I agree with the bolded statement..Also thanks for the points..



What lesson did I learn this NBA season? Well, it is a constant evolution for me day in and day out.. I study my loses and see if there was a reason I should have layed off. Sometimes there is and sometimes you just get the raw end of a good pick. So many things go into it all that my mind feels cluttered at the moment.

[dume walker]

The biggest lesson I learned was to follow your picks and to heed the reasoning behind them. And I'm not saying that in any sycophantic, kiss-ass, fan-boy way. If I had just followed your NBA picks and locked out almost all other influences, including my own judgments from time to time, I would have done very well. I also gained an education as to what to look for by reading your reasonings, which I very much appreciated your including along with your picks. And I did not always agree with them -- at least not at first. Case in point, I sometimes thought you relied a little too much on referee bias. Where it cost me was in Game 5 of Lakers/Suns. Donaghy called that game for the Lakers. You had Lakers as well though you weren't able to post it. That was also the first time I laid off taking Lakers in the first quarter, much to my chagrin. You and Donaghy really opened my eyes to referee bias. I've ordered Donaghy's book and will be paying much more attention to that in the future. Also... Thanks for the points.

[lakerboy]

I learned that you dont bet on the heat for or against.

[sweetjones55]

I learned that you dont bet on the heat for or against.

I'm going to teach you one thing. Sacramento takes a trip down south every year to play Atlanta, Orlando and then Miami. Bet the Heat against Kings during that road trip every year. Thank me later.

[sweetjones55]

The biggest lesson I learned was to follow your picks and to heed the reasoning behind them. And I'm not saying that in any sycophantic, kiss-ass, fan-boy way. If I had just followed your NBA picks and locked out almost all other influences, including my own judgments from time to time, I would have done very well. I also gained an education as to what to look for by reading your reasonings, which I very much appreciated your including along with your picks. And I did not always agree with them -- at least not at first. Case in point, I sometimes thought you relied a little too much on referee bias. Where it cost me was in Game 5 of Lakers/Suns. Donaghy called that game for the Lakers. You had Lakers as well though you weren't able to post it. That was also the first time I laid off taking Lakers in the first quarter, much to my chagrin. You and Donaghy really opened my eyes to referee bias. I've ordered Donaghy's book and will be paying much more attention to that in the future. Also... Thanks for the points.

honestly refs are the very last thing I look at when I decide on a game. They rarely ever make or break my pick unless it's 3 refs who heavilyyy all favor a side or total or if Brothers/Bavetta are the head refs. You want to stay away from home teams with those guys.

[sweetjones55]

I learned that you dont bet on the heat for or against.

The all-time best writeup I have ever read in my life via NEVADASIDE on that other forum.

1/23/10
SAC/MIA-7 (Hm line -4.5 - 6.5 projected)
My target line to play on MIA is -5.5 or better.

SAC 3-18 away as of 1/22/10
MIA 12-10 @ home as of 1/19/10

Last games prior to 1/23:
SAC last game @ ORL on 1/22/10 4P.M
MIA last game @ WAS on 1/22/10 4P.M

MIAMI owns SACRAMENTO SU & ATS.
MIAMI IS 9-1 SU AND 9-1 ATS last 10 @ HOME
MIAMI IS 13-2 SU AND 13-2 ATS last 20 @ HOME

Facts leading into this game:
SAC is a sub .500 team with a win pct=.375.
SAC is #13 WEST conf. & #4 PACIFIC div.
MIA is a .500+ team with a win pct=.525.
MIA is a Top 8 EAST conf. team: currently #6 EAST conf. & #4 SOUTHEAST div.
SAC & MIA will both be playing on 0 days rest.
SAC will be playing @ ORL the day before playing @ MIA which has lead to a larger margin of victory for MIA over the years as explained later on in this write up.
SAC will be playing a B2B for their last leg of a 6 game EAST coast road trip when they square off @ MIA.
MIA will be returning home from a 2 game EAST coast road trip to CHA & WAS.
SAC has lost the first 5 games of their current 6 game road trip, the last 4 losses to SOUTHEAST teams going 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS (ATS cover by 4.5 as a 6.5 pt dog).
SAC has already lost SU & ATS @ home to MIA this year 102-115.
NO key injuries reported for either team as of 1/22/10.


Since '97, MIA is 5-1 SU & ATS in games where SAC has played @ ORL 1-2 days prior to playing @ MIA......

in those games MIA won by 13 in '97, by 10 on 3/13/01, by 21 in '05, by 20 in '06, by 21 in '08........

during this period the only MIA loss SU & ATS hosting SAC came on 11/10/01 when SAC won by 15 on 0 days rest with MIA on 2 days rest.
Of these six games where SAC played @ ORL prior to playing @ MIA, MIA only played one game on 0 days rest where SAC had 1 days rest with MIA winning 104-83 on 3/4/05. The other five games had SAC on 0 days rest & MIA with 2-3 days rest.

Historical data provides no EDGE with the amount of days rest or no rest in this match up.

This is INCREDIBLE:
Since 1996, SAC has only won SU & ATS @ MIA ONCE which took place in the '01 - '02 season on 11/10/01, MIA's 6th game into the season.

Lets look at some facts for the '01 - '02 season:
SAC #1 overall in NBA: 61-21, pct=.744, 25-16 overall road record.
SAC #1 vs. EAST: 24-6, pct=.800, 10-5 road record.
SAC #2 vs. sub .500 teams: 31-5, pct=.861, 13-5 road record.
in comparison
MIA #20 overall in NBA: 36-46, pct=.439,18-23 overall home record.
MIA #10 vs. WEST: 14-14, pct=.500, 6-8 @ home.
MIA #19 vs. .500+ teams: 16-30, pct=.348, 7-16 @ home.
MIA #11 vs. WEST Top 8 teams: 6-10 SU & 7-9 ATS, pct=.375, 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS @ home.
Pretty clear why SAC won @ MIA that particular year.



Since '93 in games that MIA won while hosting SAC 1-2 days after SAC played ORL, MIA has won by an average of 17 pts with an average score of 109-92.
Since '93 in games that MIA won while hosting SAC where SAC did NOT play ORL prior to playing @ MIA, MIA won by an avg. of 12.75 pts with an avg. score of 100.8-88.1

Since '02 MIA is 3-0 SU & ATS with 0 days rest @ home vs. SAC (one game SAC played ORL prior to MIA, the other two SAC did not play @ ORL prior to MIA).......in 2 of the games SAC had 1 days rest with MIA winning those by 6 & 21. The other game had both teams on 0 days rest with MIA winning SU & ATS 88-78 on 11/3/02......however, SAC did NOT play @ ORL 1-2 days prior to this one.

What is interesting here is that in this ’02 – ’03 season with MIA beating SAC 88-78, SAC was #3 NBA overall, 24-17 overall road, & 8-7 vs. EAST on the road. MIA was #26 NBA overall, 16-25 @ home, & 5-9 @ home vs. WEST……yet MIA still won @ home as a DOG beating SAC once again as they have done for so many years.

In the last 5 games where MIA hosted SAC 1-2 days after SAC played @ ORL, MIA has dominated these categories vs. SAC averaging: AST 24.2-17.8, STL 9-4.6, BLK 6.4-2.2, TO 9.6-13.2.
The last time SAC lost @ MIA: MIA avg.: AST 21-10, STL 15-7, BLK 8-2, TO 14-25.
Last game @ SAC on 12/6/09 MIA avg.: AST 30-19, STL 9-6, BLK 8-1, TO 13-17.


Historical data shows there is no "Revenge Factor" with this match up, as MIA has won SU & ATS @ home over the years regardless of whether or not they won SU & or ATS @ SAC previous to playing @ MIA within a single season.

As of 1/22:
MIA #8 overall vs. sub .500 teams. 12-3 SU vs. sub .500 overall, 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS vs. sub .500 @ home, & 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS vs. sub .500 last 10.
MIA only has one home loss this season to a sub .500 team. They avg. ATS wins @ home as a fav of 6.5 pts or less, & avg. ATS losses @ home as a fav of 9.5 pts or more.

MIA is 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS vs. PACIFIC overall last 10.......& 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS vs. PACIFIC last 5 overall, the last 5 were all road games (only losing road games SU & ATS @ LAC 84-94 on 1/10/10 & losing SU @ LAL 107-108 but winning ATS as a 12.5 dog).
MIA @ home vs. PACIFIC is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS last 5 (one SU & ATS loss to PHX this season & one ATS loss to GS in '08).

MIA vs. Div last 20 overall:
PACIFIC 11-9 SU: 12-8 ATS
CENTRAL 12-8 SU: 13-7 ATS
ATLANTIC 11-9 SU: 9-11 ATS
SOUTHEAST 10-10 SU: 11-8 ATS
NORTHWEST 9-11 SU: 9-11 ATS
SOUTHWEST 4-16 SU: 4-15-1 ATS

As of 1/20:
SAC #23 overall vs. .500+ teams. They are 7-21 SU & 13-11-3 ATS vs. .500+ overall, 1-14 SU & 8-5-2 ATS vs. .500+ on the road, & 2-8 SU & 3-6-1 ATS vs. .500+ last 10.
SAC #29 overall vs. EAST Top 8. They are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS vs. EAST Top 8 overall, 0-5 SU vs. EAST Top 8 @ home, 1-2 SU & 2-1 ATS vs. EAST Top 8 on the road (won SU & ATS @ CHI, but lost SU & ATS SOUTHEAST road games @ CHA & ATL), & 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS vs. EAST Top 8 last 10 (2-6 ATS breakdown.......winning ATS when averaging +5.5 pts or more: losing ATS when avgeraging +4.8 or less, & this may be a key guage number for the MIA game).
SAC is 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS vs. SOUTHEAST overall last 10.......& 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS vs. SOUTHEAST last 5 overall (only SU win was @ home hosting WASH on 12/16/09 112-109 but lost ATS as a 3.5 pt fav......only ATS win @ CHA as 6.5 dog losing 103-105 on 1/18/10). SAC on the road vs. SOUTHEAST is 0-10 SU & 2-8 ATS last 10.......& 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS last 5.
SAC is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS vs. SOUTHEAST teams within the EAST Top 8. One ATS win as a 6.5pt dog, & 4 ATS losses when getting an avg. +5.1 pts.

SAC vs. Div last 20 overall:
SOUTHEAST 2-19 SU: 4-16 ATS
NORTHWEST 9-11 SU: 10-9-1 ATS
CENTRAL 6-14 SU: 12-8 ATS
PACIFIC 6-14 SU: 11-9 ATS
ATLANTIC 6-14 SU: 6-14 ATS
SOUTHWEST 4-16 SU: 12-7-1 ATS


We already have the advantage of knowing how MIA matches up with SAC this year since MIA won SU @ SAC on 12/6/09 115-102.

With SAC's consistently BAD road record vs. SOUTHEAST teams......I believe that SAC is just NOT a team that travels well clear across the country....pure & simple. A good example is in '08, SAC beat ATL, ORL, & MIA all @ hm......yet still LOST to ALL 3 teams on the road.

I also believe this factor is HUGE.........SAC will be on the last leg of a SIX game EAST coast road trip when they face MIAMI.......PLUS, SAC will have played ORL the day prior to this game........the last time SAC went to MIA for their 6th leg of an EAST coast road trip directly after playing @ ORL, SAC LOST 83-104 with MIA on 0 days rest.

SAC on B2B road games vs. SOUTHEAST: is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS last 5 losing by an avg. of 12.6 pts with losses by 10 @ WAS, 16 @ CHA, 18 @ ORL, 6 @ ATL, 13 @ WAS. Also 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS last 8 dating back to 01/2006 losing by an avg. of 12 pts.

SAC on B2B road games last 5 overall: is 1-4 SU & 2-2-1 ATS losing by an avg. of 12 pts (lost SU & ATS @ WAS(SOUTHEAST) 86-96, lost SU & PUSH ATS 2nd game @ SA 106-118, lost SU & ATS 1st game @ SA 94-113, lost SU & won ATS @ HOU 106-113, & won SU & ATS @ MIL 96-95).


EXTRA NOTE:
Since '91 in games @ ORL 1-2 days prior to playing @ MIA, SAC has gone 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS vs. ORL.....getting beat by an avg. of 12.6 pts in the 5 SU losses........SAC's one win @ ORL coming in '01 114-108.
Also, this game @ ORL will be the front end of a B2B for SAC where they are a lousy 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS last 5 on the front end of a B2B.


Summary:
I believe the following key factors provide a strong probability for another MIAMI SU & ATS win situation with a line of -5.5 or better:
SAC is a sub .500 team ranked 23rd against .500+ teams going to face a team ranked #5 against sub .500 teams.
SAC is 29th overall in the NBA vs. Top 8 EAST conf. teams.
SAC currently has a HORRIBLE overall road record.
SAC has a current & long steady history of a HORRIBLE road record vs. the SOUTHEAST.
SAC has a current & long steady history of a HORRIBLE road record vs. MIA.
SAC already showed their card in failing to match up with MIA @ SAC earlier in the year when MIA won there 115-102.
SAC playing @ ORL 1-2 days prior to playing @ MIA......as MIA wins by a larger avg. number of pts under this condition.
SAC will be on the 6th & final leg of an EAST coast road trip with 0 days rest when they face MIA.

[FR3SH like UgHH]

i know this is wierd but i think over is the best play for the game...

i see LA scoring 110 or even more and BOS hitting atleast 100....

[sweetjones55]

i know this is wierd but i think over is the best play for the game...

i see LA scoring 110 or even more and BOS hitting atleast 100....

I really don't think so. LA is going to have a hard time scoring 110 points on Boston with Bynum nursing that injury. They would need big points from Odom (very feasible) and the rest of the bench (not feasible). Boston has been playing solid defense and blowing very, very few assignments. LA will need to try to get out in transition to score that much but that really isn't there game and I don't see them doing it that often, they like to get in the triangle and pick you apart that way. But then again I gave up on totals for the playoffs because I couldn't read them very well so you may very well have a great play on your hands lol

[FR3SH like UgHH]

thnx for the imput jones...

i still take alot of ur capping into consideration(even tho u laid of playing)...btw u playing this series at all or u done completely?

i just HAVE A FEELING...but will only play prob 1x on it then somethin at half time...

[sweetjones55]

thnx for the imput jones...

i still take alot of ur capping into consideration(even tho u laid of playing)...btw u playing this series at all or u done completely?

i just HAVE A FEELING...but will only play prob 1x on it then somethin at half time...

I am fully handicapping every game this series. I got Lakers for the Series for 10 units and Lakers 1Q for 4 units game 1.

[spal2811]

gl sweetjones on boston myself for the + money

[krazey47409]

All men dream but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that it was vanity; but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dream with open eyes to make it possible.
T.E. Lawrence

Hold fast to dreams, for if dreams die, life is a broken winged bird that cannot fly.
Lanston Hughes

To win without risk is to triumph without glory.
Corneille

They wil rise highest who strive for the highest place



The more difficulties one has to encounter, within and without, the more significant and the higher in inspiration his life will be.
Horace Bushnell

Life has no smooth road for any of us; and in the bracing atmosphere of a high aim the very roughness stimulates the climber to steadier steps, till the legend, over steep ways to the stars, fulfills itself.
W. C. Doane
Success is sweet: the sweeter if long delayed and attained through manifold struggles and defeats.
A. Branson Alcott
You are the handicap you must face.
You are the one who must choose your place.
James Lane Allen

here some quotes 4 u

[sweetjones55]

To win without risk is to triumph without glory.
Corneille

The more difficulties one has to encounter, within and without, the more significant and the higher in inspiration his life will be.
Horace Bushnell

I like those two a lot, points sent.

[Goat Milk]

I really don't think so. LA is going to have a hard time scoring 110 points on Boston with Bynum nursing that injury. They would need big points from Odom (very feasible) and the rest of the bench (not feasible). Boston has been playing solid defense and blowing very, very few assignments. LA will need to try to get out in transition to score that much but that really isn't there game and I don't see them doing it that often, they like to get in the triangle and pick you apart that way. But then again I gave up on totals for the playoffs because I couldn't read them very well so you may very well have a great play on your hands lol

1. Lakers will push the tempo a lot in this series
2. Lakers will fade the triangle offense in this series

[krazey47409]

thanks 4 the points

[sweetjones55]

GoatMilk, you really think the Lakers are going to abandon their offensive game plan that has won them 4 championships? They can beat Boston at their own game.

[actionaddict86]

Let go lakers!!! Payback a bitch

[Goat Milk]

GoatMilk, you really think the Lakers are going to abandon their offensive game plan that has won them 4 championships? They can beat Boston at their own game.

They're not going to use it as much because it didn't work in 08 and Phil knows it. The offense is going to be simple two man game Bryant and Gasol or Bryant and Odom pick and role and lots of iso sets for Bryant on the elbow. Bryant will not be driving to start games he's going to start every game knocking down his jumper to get the defense to bite eventually, hence creating more space (driving lanes)

Lakers are going to push the tempo a lot in this series, watch. Even the Lakers masterful triangle offense can't touch the Celtics half court defense. The only way to beat the Celts is to push the ball, they're way too slow in transition.

[sweetjones55]

We shall see, either way we are both on the Lakers so GL to us

[sweetjones55]

NBA FINALS CARD

Lakers for the Series -190 10X HEAVY LOCKED
Lakers 1Q -1.5 Game 1 4X BIG LOCKED

[brumbies]

The all-time best writeup I have ever read in my life via NEVADASIDE on that other forum. 1/23/10 SAC/MIA-7 (Hm line -4.5 - 6.5 projected) My target line to play on MIA is -5.5 or better. SAC 3-18 away as of 1/22/10 MIA 12-10 @ home as of 1/19/10 Last games prior to 1/23: SAC last game @ ORL on 1/22/10 4P.M MIA last game @ WAS on 1/22/10 4P.M MIAMI owns SACRAMENTO SU & ATS. MIAMI IS 9-1 SU AND 9-1 ATS last 10 @ HOME MIAMI IS 13-2 SU AND 13-2 ATS last 20 @ HOME Facts leading into this game: SAC is a sub .500 team with a win pct=.375. SAC is #13 WEST conf. & #4 PACIFIC div. MIA is a .500+ team with a win pct=.525. MIA is a Top 8 EAST conf. team: currently #6 EAST conf. & #4 SOUTHEAST div. SAC & MIA will both be playing on 0 days rest. SAC will be playing @ ORL the day before playing @ MIA which has lead to a larger margin of victory for MIA over the years as explained later on in this write up. SAC will be playing a B2B for their last leg of a 6 game EAST coast road trip when they square off @ MIA. MIA will be returning home from a 2 game EAST coast road trip to CHA & WAS. SAC has lost the first 5 games of their current 6 game road trip, the last 4 losses to SOUTHEAST teams going 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS (ATS cover by 4.5 as a 6.5 pt dog). SAC has already lost SU & ATS @ home to MIA this year 102-115. NO key injuries reported for either team as of 1/22/10. Since '97, MIA is 5-1 SU & ATS in games where SAC has played @ ORL 1-2 days prior to playing @ MIA...... in those games MIA won by 13 in '97, by 10 on 3/13/01, by 21 in '05, by 20 in '06, by 21 in '08........ during this period the only MIA loss SU & ATS hosting SAC came on 11/10/01 when SAC won by 15 on 0 days rest with MIA on 2 days rest. Of these six games where SAC played @ ORL prior to playing @ MIA, MIA only played one game on 0 days rest where SAC had 1 days rest with MIA winning 104-83 on 3/4/05. The other five games had SAC on 0 days rest & MIA with 2-3 days rest. Historical data provides no EDGE with the amount of days rest or no rest in this match up. This is INCREDIBLE: Since 1996, SAC has only won SU & ATS @ MIA ONCE which took place in the '01 - '02 season on 11/10/01, MIA's 6th game into the season. Lets look at some facts for the '01 - '02 season: SAC #1 overall in NBA: 61-21, pct=.744, 25-16 overall road record. SAC #1 vs. EAST: 24-6, pct=.800, 10-5 road record. SAC #2 vs. sub .500 teams: 31-5, pct=.861, 13-5 road record. in comparison MIA #20 overall in NBA: 36-46, pct=.439,18-23 overall home record. MIA #10 vs. WEST: 14-14, pct=.500, 6-8 @ home. MIA #19 vs. .500+ teams: 16-30, pct=.348, 7-16 @ home. MIA #11 vs. WEST Top 8 teams: 6-10 SU & 7-9 ATS, pct=.375, 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS @ home. Pretty clear why SAC won @ MIA that particular year. Since '93 in games that MIA won while hosting SAC 1-2 days after SAC played ORL, MIA has won by an average of 17 pts with an average score of 109-92. Since '93 in games that MIA won while hosting SAC where SAC did NOT play ORL prior to playing @ MIA, MIA won by an avg. of 12.75 pts with an avg. score of 100.8-88.1 Since '02 MIA is 3-0 SU & ATS with 0 days rest @ home vs. SAC (one game SAC played ORL prior to MIA, the other two SAC did not play @ ORL prior to MIA).......in 2 of the games SAC had 1 days rest with MIA winning those by 6 & 21. The other game had both teams on 0 days rest with MIA winning SU & ATS 88-78 on 11/3/02......however, SAC did NOT play @ ORL 1-2 days prior to this one. What is interesting here is that in this ’02 – ’03 season with MIA beating SAC 88-78, SAC was #3 NBA overall, 24-17 overall road, & 8-7 vs. EAST on the road. MIA was #26 NBA overall, 16-25 @ home, & 5-9 @ home vs. WEST……yet MIA still won @ home as a DOG beating SAC once again as they have done for so many years. In the last 5 games where MIA hosted SAC 1-2 days after SAC played @ ORL, MIA has dominated these categories vs. SAC averaging: AST 24.2-17.8, STL 9-4.6, BLK 6.4-2.2, TO 9.6-13.2. The last time SAC lost @ MIA: MIA avg.: AST 21-10, STL 15-7, BLK 8-2, TO 14-25. Last game @ SAC on 12/6/09 MIA avg.: AST 30-19, STL 9-6, BLK 8-1, TO 13-17. Historical data shows there is no "Revenge Factor" with this match up, as MIA has won SU & ATS @ home over the years regardless of whether or not they won SU & or ATS @ SAC previous to playing @ MIA within a single season. As of 1/22: MIA #8 overall vs. sub .500 teams. 12-3 SU vs. sub .500 overall, 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS vs. sub .500 @ home, & 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS vs. sub .500 last 10. MIA only has one home loss this season to a sub .500 team. They avg. ATS wins @ home as a fav of 6.5 pts or less, & avg. ATS losses @ home as a fav of 9.5 pts or more. MIA is 6-4 SU & 8-2 ATS vs. PACIFIC overall last 10.......& 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS vs. PACIFIC last 5 overall, the last 5 were all road games (only losing road games SU & ATS @ LAC 84-94 on 1/10/10 & losing SU @ LAL 107-108 but winning ATS as a 12.5 dog). MIA @ home vs. PACIFIC is 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS last 5 (one SU & ATS loss to PHX this season & one ATS loss to GS in '08). MIA vs. Div last 20 overall: PACIFIC 11-9 SU: 12-8 ATS CENTRAL 12-8 SU: 13-7 ATS ATLANTIC 11-9 SU: 9-11 ATS SOUTHEAST 10-10 SU: 11-8 ATS NORTHWEST 9-11 SU: 9-11 ATS SOUTHWEST 4-16 SU: 4-15-1 ATS As of 1/20: SAC #23 overall vs. .500+ teams. They are 7-21 SU & 13-11-3 ATS vs. .500+ overall, 1-14 SU & 8-5-2 ATS vs. .500+ on the road, & 2-8 SU & 3-6-1 ATS vs. .500+ last 10. SAC #29 overall vs. EAST Top 8. They are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS vs. EAST Top 8 overall, 0-5 SU vs. EAST Top 8 @ home, 1-2 SU & 2-1 ATS vs. EAST Top 8 on the road (won SU & ATS @ CHI, but lost SU & ATS SOUTHEAST road games @ CHA & ATL), & 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS vs. EAST Top 8 last 10 (2-6 ATS breakdown.......winning ATS when averaging +5.5 pts or more: losing ATS when avgeraging +4.8 or less, & this may be a key guage number for the MIA game). SAC is 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS vs. SOUTHEAST overall last 10.......& 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS vs. SOUTHEAST last 5 overall (only SU win was @ home hosting WASH on 12/16/09 112-109 but lost ATS as a 3.5 pt fav......only ATS win @ CHA as 6.5 dog losing 103-105 on 1/18/10). SAC on the road vs. SOUTHEAST is 0-10 SU & 2-8 ATS last 10.......& 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS last 5. SAC is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS vs. SOUTHEAST teams within the EAST Top 8. One ATS win as a 6.5pt dog, & 4 ATS losses when getting an avg. +5.1 pts. SAC vs. Div last 20 overall: SOUTHEAST 2-19 SU: 4-16 ATS NORTHWEST 9-11 SU: 10-9-1 ATS CENTRAL 6-14 SU: 12-8 ATS PACIFIC 6-14 SU: 11-9 ATS ATLANTIC 6-14 SU: 6-14 ATS SOUTHWEST 4-16 SU: 12-7-1 ATS We already have the advantage of knowing how MIA matches up with SAC this year since MIA won SU @ SAC on 12/6/09 115-102. With SAC's consistently BAD road record vs. SOUTHEAST teams......I believe that SAC is just NOT a team that travels well clear across the country....pure & simple. A good example is in '08, SAC beat ATL, ORL, & MIA all @ hm......yet still LOST to ALL 3 teams on the road. I also believe this factor is HUGE.........SAC will be on the last leg of a SIX game EAST coast road trip when they face MIAMI.......PLUS, SAC will have played ORL the day prior to this game........the last time SAC went to MIA for their 6th leg of an EAST coast road trip directly after playing @ ORL, SAC LOST 83-104 with MIA on 0 days rest. SAC on B2B road games vs. SOUTHEAST: is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS last 5 losing by an avg. of 12.6 pts with losses by 10 @ WAS, 16 @ CHA, 18 @ ORL, 6 @ ATL, 13 @ WAS. Also 1-7 SU & 1-7 ATS last 8 dating back to 01/2006 losing by an avg. of 12 pts. SAC on B2B road games last 5 overall: is 1-4 SU & 2-2-1 ATS losing by an avg. of 12 pts (lost SU & ATS @ WAS(SOUTHEAST) 86-96, lost SU & PUSH ATS 2nd game @ SA 106-118, lost SU & ATS 1st game @ SA 94-113, lost SU & won ATS @ HOU 106-113, & won SU & ATS @ MIL 96-95). EXTRA NOTE: Since '91 in games @ ORL 1-2 days prior to playing @ MIA, SAC has gone 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS vs. ORL.....getting beat by an avg. of 12.6 pts in the 5 SU losses........SAC's one win @ ORL coming in '01 114-108. Also, this game @ ORL will be the front end of a B2B for SAC where they are a lousy 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS last 5 on the front end of a B2B. Summary: I believe the following key factors provide a strong probability for another MIAMI SU & ATS win situation with a line of -5.5 or better: SAC is a sub .500 team ranked 23rd against .500+ teams going to face a team ranked #5 against sub .500 teams. SAC is 29th overall in the NBA vs. Top 8 EAST conf. teams. SAC currently has a HORRIBLE overall road record. SAC has a current & long steady history of a HORRIBLE road record vs. the SOUTHEAST. SAC has a current & long steady history of a HORRIBLE road record vs. MIA. SAC already showed their card in failing to match up with MIA @ SAC earlier in the year when MIA won there 115-102. SAC playing @ ORL 1-2 days prior to playing @ MIA......as MIA wins by a larger avg. number of pts under this condition. SAC will be on the 6th & final leg of an EAST coast road trip with 0 days rest when they face MIA.

I am curious what other forum is that?

[IndyJonezy]

Thanks for input

[peterpan19]

I am curious what other forum is that?

TSG

[fly fisher]

a quote "It is easy to make a buck, but it is hard to make a difference." T.W. After getting fired from a major corporation for trying to do the right thing.

[palmer]

SJ...thanks for the plays. Played LAL 1Q and for the series. GL!

-Palmer

[sweetjones55]

Next person to post "Go Lakers" with a picture of Kobe draining that shot on Ray Allen in the game @ Boston this year gets 10 points from me