Noob capping questions, ask away!

[sweetjones55]

Just pick winners- nothing more to it. People waste too much time capping.

Noobs just can't "pick winners". You can just "pick winners" because you have spent hours and hours capping games and now it just comes second nature to you midway through the season to pick winners. Noobs end up just taking the almighty "traps" that vegas sets up and they get killed. We have analyzed so many games that we basically just have a routine that we go through picking winners and we can get to the winners rather quickly. We know exactly what websites to go to and what to look for. Noobs don't. I kind of hope you were being sarcastic lol.

[lakerboy]

Noobs just can't "pick winners". You can just "pick winners" because you have spent hours and hours capping games and now it just comes second nature to you midway through the season to pick winners. Noobs end up just taking the almighty "traps" that vegas sets up and they get killed.

Sorry SJ i spend 45 minutes on a big nba card a night. Its always been like that. The more time you spend trying to look at all the info the more you get confused.


Guys one thing dont look at so many different opinions. You know the this guy is on x team but wait that guy is on y team,

[tanner40]

Sorry SJ i spend 45 minutes on a big nba card a night. Its always been like that. The more time you spend trying to look at all the info the more you get confused.


Guys one thing dont look at so many different opinions. You know the this guy is on x team but wait that guy is on y team,

I tend to agree the oddsmakers cap the games for you. Over time and with experience you learn what the different lines and situations mean.

The best thing for new bettors is trial and error (with smart money management) until they start developing a routine and way to pick winners that is successful for them.

[darkenergy]

SJ, seem like you cap the game, and make your section base situation and fundamental of a team. Then public %, and line movement are only supplemental to your decision, am I right?
Because I think there are two school of thoughts here, some like capping base on hardcore stats, historical trends, situation and such.
Other like LB (I only in this thread few times, so I might be wrong), paco, jpgbsox are seem like make their selection MOSTLY base on linemovement.

Just like in stock trading, some like to pick there stock base on fundamental of a company, others like to make selection base on chart and short term market condition, couldn't careless about company's fundamental.
So, if you handicap the a game, find a great value in a pick....but then public are heavily on them, or last minutes before tipoff, the line move again your selection. Then you lay it off?
What I really want to ask is do you trust your work that you done the night before, or change your mind because last minute line's shift.

[fly fisher]

as a beginner, that has been my biggest challenge is good money management, but I have made some big strides lately, now I need to stay discplined.

[Dexter]

great thread SJ....a welcome from the garbage here lately.

[sweetjones55]

great thread SJ....a welcome from the garbage here lately.

That's what I was going for, thanks.

[sweetjones55]

Sorry SJ i spend 45 minutes on a big nba card a night. Its always been like that. The more time you spend trying to look at all the info the more you get confused.


Guys one thing dont look at so many different opinions. You know the this guy is on x team but wait that guy is on y team,

Believe it or not you actually spend more time on you think on a big NBA card. You watch the line movement ALL DAY long and hit it when you find the best value. So you are actually spending more than 45 minutes but I understand what you are saying.

[TodaysAction]

OK, so I am hearing a lot of talk about noobs and wanting to learn how to cap their own games instead of just blindly tailing and then being upset when they lose money on a game they didn't even like to begin with. Well, I am here to try and answer all your questions you have about betting/capping NBA basketball. I am horrible in NFL and MLB, pretty good in NCAA football but I think my best sport by far is NBA. I am hitting right around 60% this year thusfar and have done very well on my large plays. So fire away your questions! Anybody who thinks they can answer a question that I have gotten to go ahead and do so. No more excuses newbs, and also remember "the only stupid question is the one you don't ask".

Question #1. At what point if you're using 1% of your bankroll per wager should you either:
A. increase it to 1.5% and/or
B. decrease it to 0.5% and why?

Question #2. When making a 2H wager, is it better to fade or follow the public for spreads AND totals? Why/why not?

Question #3. During "live" wagering, when is it to the players advantage to reverse their "normal wagering pattern" and why/why not?

Question #4. Which of the following gives more of an edge to the player and why:
A. 2-team parlay or
B. 3-team teaser?

Lastly, question #5. Is it better to place your action with
A. Vegas - since it's legal there,
B. An on-line book or
C. A local.

Thanks in advance and looking forward to your answers.

[Lakers714]

Sorry SJ i spend 45 minutes on a big nba card a night. Its always been like that. The more time you spend trying to look at all the info the more you get confused. Guys one thing dont look at so many different opinions. You know the this guy is on x team but wait that guy is on y team,

This is the single most valuable piece of advice I received from LB a while back and it has worked for me.

[sweetjones55]

Question #1. At what point if you're using 1% of your bankroll per wager should you either:
A. increase it to 1.5% and/or
B. decrease it to 0.5% and why?

I would say every time you go up 5% you can increase 0.5% and every time you lose 5% you can decrease 0.5%. I don't really have much logic as to why, that just seems right to me.

Question #2. When making a 2H wager, is it better to fade or follow the public for spreads AND totals? Why/why not?

The 2H spread and the game spread don't really have much to do with each other. It is a completely new spread so fading and following the public kind of goes out the window because the public numbers you have were for the game spread. When I am wagering on the 2H I really like to see how the line moves. I typically like to bet on the side of the team whose line is getting worse to take as it comes out. Say Dallas comes out -3 2H and quickly goes to -4, I usually jump on them if I had thought they were the correct play 2H before seeing the line. I am not really a big 2H guy. I generally just jump on really, really good home teams who are down at halftime. This theory sounds so simple but it really works every single year.

A good little tidbit on 2H wagering, take the Heat 2H if they are up at half and fade them 2H if they are down. This has been HIGHLY profitable. I learned this trend on hoopsstats.com Heat are 32-6 if leading at half, Heat are 5-27 if trailing at half Knowing little facts like these really, really help. There are many teams that are pretty predictable at half. Already mentioned Lakers, Nuggets, Cavs are great bets down at half at home. Last year the Blazers slayed 2H spreads all year long and the books never were able to adjust.

Question #3. During "live" wagering, when is it to the players advantage to reverse their "normal wagering pattern" and why/why not?

I don't really do live wagering at all to be honest. I have done it a few times in the NBA playoffs when its offered when I have a team -3 lets say and they are up 17 and they let me take the other team -14 at crazy odds just to cover myself in case of a miracle loss. I rarely do it though.

Question #4. Which of the following gives more of an edge to the player and why:
A. 2-team parlay or
B. 3-team teaser?

I already talked about this and I say a two teamer is the only kind of parlay that should be played and it should always be a side and a total in the same game where you have a team that usually wins and goes over or loses and goes under. IE Warriors and Over or Fade Warriors and Under (Warriors have only won one game all year when scoring 100 points). Why you shouldn't do 3 team parlays? Because it's hard enough to hit one game lol. I guess if you are doing it for a very small amount it's ok but I'd rather take that small amount and place more on a game I love. There is no pro capper/sports gambler who makes a living doing parlays. Now that I think of it if you aren't doing a two teamer like above you minuswell just go straight and do like a 7 teamer and if you just are lucky that day hit it big!

Lastly, question #5. Is it better to place your action with
A. Vegas - since it's legal there,
B. An on-line book or
C. A local.

I think 5dimes.com is the best place to place any bet. Why? They have reduced lines for every single NBA game. I get the same spread as most people at +100 and -105 all the time. They pay out very, very fast also. Rebate wager is also good because you get free 0.5 points. You can't really go wrong with Vegas, they pay out better than anyone lol. Locals are by far the worst, just so many problems with getting paid, getting lines and keeping track of all the plays.

[sweetjones55]

Profitable autobet #9 [B]take the Heat 2H if they are up at half and fade them 2H if they are down. Heat are 32-6 if leading at half, Heat are 5-27 if trailing at half

[shoebox]

Good stuff SJ also I would recommend playing at matchbook, my fav

[Intangible]

Profitable autobet #9 [B]take the Heat 2H if they are up at half and fade them 2H if they are down. Heat are 32-6 if leading at half, Heat are 5-27 if trailing at half

That's incredible, gotta jot that down.

[sweetjones55]

That's incredible, gotta jot that down.

Yup and the Heat were up 30 tonight at half. God knows the Heat were probably like +5 at half and they are now winning the 2H by 3 with 8 minutes left in the 4th. It's looking like the trend is going to produce another winner again tonight. Did anyone see the 2H heat line?

[Intangible]

I think it was heat +6.5

Trend is right on at the moment

[evicktd]

Question #1. At what point if you're using 1% of your bankroll per wager should you either:
A. increase it to 1.5% and/or
B. decrease it to 0.5% and why?

I would say every time you go up 5% you can increase 0.5% and every time you lose 5% you can decrease 0.5%. I don't really have much logic as to why, that just seems right to me.

Question #2. When making a 2H wager, is it better to fade or follow the public for spreads AND totals? Why/why not?

The 2H spread and the game spread don't really have much to do with each other. It is a completely new spread so fading and following the public kind of goes out the window because the public numbers you have were for the game spread. When I am wagering on the 2H I really like to see how the line moves. I typically like to bet on the side of the team whose line is getting worse to take as it comes out. Say Dallas comes out -3 2H and quickly goes to -4, I usually jump on them if I had thought they were the correct play 2H before seeing the line. I am not really a big 2H guy. I generally just jump on really, really good home teams who are down at halftime. This theory sounds so simple but it really works every single year.

A good little tidbit on 2H wagering, take the Heat 2H if they are up at half and fade them 2H if they are down. This has been HIGHLY profitable. I learned this trend on hoopsstats.com Heat are 32-6 if leading at half, Heat are 5-27 if trailing at half Knowing little facts like these really, really help. There are many teams that are pretty predictable at half. Already mentioned Lakers, Nuggets, Cavs are great bets down at half at home. Last year the Blazers slayed 2H spreads all year long and the books never were able to adjust.

Question #3. During "live" wagering, when is it to the players advantage to reverse their "normal wagering pattern" and why/why not?

I don't really do live wagering at all to be honest. I have done it a few times in the NBA playoffs when its offered when I have a team -3 lets say and they are up 17 and they let me take the other team -14 at crazy odds just to cover myself in case of a miracle loss. I rarely do it though.

Question #4. Which of the following gives more of an edge to the player and why:
A. 2-team parlay or
B. 3-team teaser?

I already talked about this and I say a two teamer is the only kind of parlay that should be played and it should always be a side and a total in the same game where you have a team that usually wins and goes over or loses and goes under. IE Warriors and Over or Fade Warriors and Under (Warriors have only won one game all year when scoring 100 points). Why you shouldn't do 3 team parlays? Because it's hard enough to hit one game lol. I guess if you are doing it for a very small amount it's ok but I'd rather take that small amount and place more on a game I love. There is no pro capper/sports gambler who makes a living doing parlays. Now that I think of it if you aren't doing a two teamer like above you minuswell just go straight and do like a 7 teamer and if you just are lucky that day hit it big!

Lastly, question #5. Is it better to place your action with
A. Vegas - since it's legal there,
B. An on-line book or
C. A local.

I think 5dimes.com is the best place to place any bet. Why? They have reduced lines for every single NBA game. I get the same spread as most people at +100 and -105 all the time. They pay out very, very fast also. Rebate wager is also good because you get free 0.5 points. You can't really go wrong with Vegas, they pay out better than anyone lol. Locals are by far the worst, just so many problems with getting paid, getting lines and keeping track of all the plays.

GREAT food for thought

[sweetjones55]

The Heat were +6.5 even +7 at some sites. Let's see if my profitable autobet produces it's 1st winner. If someone could keep track of the profitable autobets or at least post up when one pops up and the result that would be GREAT.

[TodaysAction]

Question #1. At what point if you're using 1% of your bankroll per wager should you either:
A. increase it to 1.5% and/or
B. decrease it to 0.5% and why?

I would say every time you go up 5% you can increase 0.5% and every time you lose 5% you can decrease 0.5%. I don't really have much logic as to why, that just seems right to me.

Question #2. When making a 2H wager, is it better to fade or follow the public for spreads AND totals? Why/why not?

The 2H spread and the game spread don't really have much to do with each other. It is a completely new spread so fading and following the public kind of goes out the window because the public numbers you have were for the game spread. When I am wagering on the 2H I really like to see how the line moves. I typically like to bet on the side of the team whose line is getting worse to take as it comes out. Say Dallas comes out -3 2H and quickly goes to -4, I usually jump on them if I had thought they were the correct play 2H before seeing the line. I am not really a big 2H guy. I generally just jump on really, really good home teams who are down at halftime. This theory sounds so simple but it really works every single year.

A good little tidbit on 2H wagering, take the Heat 2H if they are up at half and fade them 2H if they are down. This has been HIGHLY profitable. I learned this trend on hoopsstats.com Heat are 32-6 if leading at half, Heat are 5-27 if trailing at half Knowing little facts like these really, really help. There are many teams that are pretty predictable at half. Already mentioned Lakers, Nuggets, Cavs are great bets down at half at home. Last year the Blazers slayed 2H spreads all year long and the books never were able to adjust.

Question #3. During "live" wagering, when is it to the players advantage to reverse their "normal wagering pattern" and why/why not?

I don't really do live wagering at all to be honest. I have done it a few times in the NBA playoffs when its offered when I have a team -3 lets say and they are up 17 and they let me take the other team -14 at crazy odds just to cover myself in case of a miracle loss. I rarely do it though.

Question #4. Which of the following gives more of an edge to the player and why:
A. 2-team parlay or
B. 3-team teaser?

I already talked about this and I say a two teamer is the only kind of parlay that should be played and it should always be a side and a total in the same game where you have a team that usually wins and goes over or loses and goes under. IE Warriors and Over or Fade Warriors and Under (Warriors have only won one game all year when scoring 100 points). Why you shouldn't do 3 team parlays? Because it's hard enough to hit one game lol. I guess if you are doing it for a very small amount it's ok but I'd rather take that small amount and place more on a game I love. There is no pro capper/sports gambler who makes a living doing parlays. Now that I think of it if you aren't doing a two teamer like above you minuswell just go straight and do like a 7 teamer and if you just are lucky that day hit it big!

Lastly, question #5. Is it better to place your action with
A. Vegas - since it's legal there,
B. An on-line book or
C. A local.

I think 5dimes.com is the best place to place any bet. Why? They have reduced lines for every single NBA game. I get the same spread as most people at +100 and -105 all the time. They pay out very, very fast also. Rebate wager is also good because you get free 0.5 points. You can't really go wrong with Vegas, they pay out better than anyone lol. Locals are by far the worst, just so many problems with getting paid, getting lines and keeping track of all the plays.

Thank you for your input. I will post my responses either Friday before heading to the Joe or Saturday noonish incase anyone else wants to chime in with their responses.

[sweetjones55]

Back to shoebox's 1st question

Tell me about Money Management

NEVER EVER bet an amount on a game that you aren't willing and able to lose. If you bet an amount that has you pissed that you lost 3 nights after the game then you bet way too much on the game. It's ok if you lose a close game that you bet a lot on and you are upset for a few hours, maybe even a day but after that you have to be over it. If you aren't then you need to lighten up on your heavy plays. I fall asleep and wake up the next morning and am over any loss, this helps me keep focused and able to just move on to the next one.

[sweetjones55]

Thank you for your input. I will post my responses either Friday before heading to the Joe or Saturday noonish incase anyone else wants to chime in with their responses.

OK cool, I am going to keep on editing my answers as I am just answering these on the fly and am in a little bit of a rush. Im out guys. Everyone have a good night and BOL on all your plays. GO BLAZERS!!!

[bryant81]

Noobs just can't "pick winners". You can just "pick winners" because you have spent hours and hours capping games and now it just comes second nature to you midway through the season to pick winners. Noobs end up just taking the almighty "traps" that vegas sets up and they get killed. We have analyzed so many games that we basically just have a routine that we go through picking winners and we can get to the winners rather quickly. We know exactly what websites to go to and what to look for. Noobs don't. I kind of hope you were being sarcastic lol.

QUESTION: What do you look for? Like how do you know what the line movements mean...do you look for changes in the spread numbers or the odds you get? I don't know what to look for in line adjustments and I was wondering if you could tell me or give me a link to where it is explained.

Thanks in advance.

[sweetjones55]

QUESTION: What do you look for? Like how do you know what the line movements mean...do you look for changes in the spread numbers or the odds you get? I don't know what to look for in line adjustments and I was wondering if you could tell me or give me a link to where it is explained.

Thanks in advance.

I'll work on this answer in the morning, I'm a little tipsy and just want to collect my winnings from tonight! BLAZERSSS HEAVYYY -3 WINNER!!! I think this is my 3rd or 4th straight heavy play that hits now.

[bryant81]

I'll work on this answer in the morning, I'm a little tipsy and just want to collect my winnings from tonight! BLAZERSSS HEAVYYY -3 WINNER!!! I think this is my 3rd or 4th straight heavy play that hits now.

It's all good bro...I'm a little tipsy too....mostly highhhhh though lol. But yeah, whenever you'd like to answer that I'd appreciate it I am interested in learning from your system.

[sweetjones55]

QUESTION: What do you look for? Like how do you know what the line movements mean...do you look for changes in the spread numbers or the odds you get? I don't know what to look for in line adjustments and I was wondering if you could tell me or give me a link to where it is explained.

Thanks in advance.

People look at line movement to try and see which way Vegas is wanting you to put your money. Say the Mavericks for example are faovred by -3 and the line goes up to -5, it's safe to say that Vegas is trying to get you to lay your money on the other team because now instead of getting +3 you are getting +5 on the other side.

Now when you factor in the public better %'s is when it gets a bit complicated. Say that the public majority is betting on the Mavericks and the line is -3, if the line goes down to say -1, this is a case of Reverse Line Movement (RLM). The line is moving in reverse of what it should be moving since the public is betting on the Mavericks. Vegas is trying to get more bettors on the Mavs by offering a better line of -1. They are getting a lopsided amount of bets on the Mavs which doesn't make sense. Why would vegas want a lopsided amount on one team when they can just even out both sides and make the 10% juice with no risk? The answer to this is vegas knows "something" and is siding with the other team. For the most part you want to side with Vegas because they know more than anyone. So all in all you are trying to figure out what vegas wants you to do by looking at the public betting numbers and line movement and do the exact opposite.

Tonight was a perfect example, the Blazzers were -2.5. The public was about 58% on the Mavs and all of a sudden the line goes from Blazers -2.5 to -3.5, enticing even more Mavs backers. So I go ahead and side with Vegas and the Blazers and rake it in with a double digit win.

Now there is sometimes RLM that doesn't really matter. The perfect example is when the spread is -1 and goes to +1. This means nothing to me as -1/+1 game is basically pick em. It is very rare to see a game end with a team losing by 1. Also, you want to try and find RLM that crosses over an even number. Why? Say a team is favored by -4.5 and the lines goes up to -5.5 with RLM. This isn't too important of a line movement because the team still has to win by 3 buckets whether it is -4.5 or -5.5. You still want to pay attention to the RLM but it matters more when it crosses a dead even number.

Now I must warn you, Reverse Line Movement isn't anything groundbreaking. Anyone can track it and if it worked everytime then we'd all be billionaires. Do not ever play a game just because it has crazy RLM. For me it's just the icing on the cake when I really like a team.

[Foals]

In my opinion, the most important thing in capping is the situation in which both teams are in. For NBA, especially the regular season, matchups don't mean shit most of the time. The key to capping NBA games is knowing which teams are motivated and which teams are tired. One spot that I love is fading a team that goes from one end of the country to the other on a road trip on their second game. One example was the Lakers game against the Bobcats a few weeks back. The Lakers flew from LA to Miami and lost to Miami in OT, then they traveled to Charlotte the next day and got beaten pretty badly.

[bryant81]

People look at line movement to try and see which way Vegas is wanting you to put your money. Say the Mavericks for example are faovred by -3 and the line goes up to -5, it's safe to say that Vegas is trying to get you to lay your money on the other team because now instead of getting +3 you are getting +5 on the other side.

Now when you factor in the public better %'s is when it gets a bit complicated. Say that the public majority is betting on the Mavericks and the line is -3, if the line goes down to say -1, this is a case of Reverse Line Movement (RLM). The line is moving in reverse of what it should be moving since the public is betting on the Mavericks. Vegas is trying to get more bettors on the Mavs by offering a better line of -1. They are getting a lopsided amount of bets on the Mavs which doesn't make sense. Why would vegas want a lopsided amount on one team when they can just even out both sides and make the 10% juice with no risk? The answer to this is vegas knows "something" and is siding with the other team. For the most part you want to side with Vegas because they know more than anyone. So all in all you are trying to figure out what vegas wants you to do by looking at the public betting numbers and line movement and do the exact opposite.

Tonight was a perfect example, the Blazzers were -2.5. The public was about 58% on the Mavs and all of a sudden the line goes from Blazers -2.5 to -3.5, enticing even more Mavs backers. So I go ahead and side with Vegas and the Blazers and rake it in with a double digit win.

Now there is sometimes RLM that doesn't really matter. The perfect example is when the spread is -1 and goes to +1. This means nothing to me as -1/+1 game is basically pick em. It is very rare to see a game end with a team losing by 1. Also, you want to try and find RLM that crosses over an even number. Why? Say a team is favored by -4.5 and the lines goes up to -5.5 with RLM. This isn't too important of a line movement because the team still has to win by 3 buckets whether it is -4.5 or -5.5. You still want to pay attention to the RLM but it matters more when it crosses a dead even number.

Now I must warn you, Reverse Line Movement isn't anything groundbreaking. Anyone can track it and if it worked everytime then we'd all be billionaires. Do not ever play a game just because it has crazy RLM. For me it's just the icing on the cake when I really like a team.

Okay okay...nice..so lets say there's a situation where the public has been voting on Mavs at -3 and then it goes to -5 meaning they want you to bet on the other team, as this is not RLM would I bet on Mavs to go against what Vegas wants me to do?

[sweetjones55]

Okay okay...nice..so lets say there's a situation where the public has been voting on Mavs at -3 and then it goes to -5 meaning they want you to bet on the other team, as this is not RLM would I bet on Mavs to go against what Vegas wants me to do?

If the public majority is at Mavs -3 and the line goes up to -5 then there is no RLM. This is just semi-normal movement and you can't really use this to make a play on the game IMO. I think in general you will be better off taking the Mavs -5 but this obviously isn't RLM so it doesn't matter as much. If this happens and you liked the Mavs at -3 then you should probably just lay off the game since now they would have to win by 6 if you took them at the inflated line of -5. So my advice in a situation like this is to just stay away from the game.

Now let's say you actually liked the underdog in this game and you knew that the public was going to pound dallas and figured the line would move in your favor. Then now your wish has come true and you have gained value and can take it at +5 and be happy with that.

[sweetjones55]

In my opinion, the most important thing in capping is the situation in which both teams are in. For NBA, especially the regular season, matchups don't mean shit most of the time. The key to capping NBA games is knowing which teams are motivated and which teams are tired. One spot that I love is fading a team that goes from one end of the country to the other on a road trip on their second game. One example was the Lakers game against the Bobcats a few weeks back. The Lakers flew from LA to Miami and lost to Miami in OT, then they traveled to Charlotte the next day and got beaten pretty badly.

You are correct. I used this same logic in my autobet of fading the Kings on their trip down south every team to Miami, Orlando and Atlanta. It is straight money.

[lyon804]

If I had to know as much as all of you know I don't think I could even pick my nose... let's not make it more scientific than it is. you are betting on players that if it wasn't for the game they would be in prison. it's best to understand the situation and the current form of teams you are backing for starters. if you dont understand those 2 things the other things dont matter.

[sweetjones55]

Another great autobet is to Fade teams on B2B traveling from far away to the thin air in Denver or Utah. Teams always run out of gas in the 2H and Denver and Utah just start pouring it on. Fade them in the 3rd quarter and 2H also.

[sweetjones55]

If I had to know as much as all of you know I don't think I could even pick my nose... let's not make it more scientific than it is. you are betting on players that if it wasn't for the game they would be in prison. it's best to understand the situation and the current form of teams you are backing for starters. if you dont understand those 2 things the other things dont matter.

You lost all credibility right there. Everyone realizes that the situations and matchups are the most important factors. Hence why I call RLM the "icing" on the cake.

[kingsr]

Thank you SJ, great help man. Thanx for taking the time to do this

[sweetjones55]

Thank you SJ, great help man. Thanx for taking the time to do this

No problem, I owe it to everyone on SBR over the years. I learned pretty much everything I know on SBR and on that "other" site TSG. The least I could do is give back some of the plethora of information I have gathered on here. I'm not worried about anyone learning my capping style or anything and don't understand people that do get worried about it. It's not like you are going to start moving lines or anything. I want everyone to make as much money as possible whether they use my capping style or their own.

[lakerboy]

If I had to know as much as all of you know I don't think I could even pick my nose... let's not make it more scientific than it is. you are betting on players that if it wasn't for the game they would be in prison. it's best to understand the situation and the current form of teams you are backing for starters. if you dont understand those 2 things the other things dont matter.

You lost all credibility right there. Everyone realizes that the situations and matchups are the most important factors. Hence why I call RLM the "icing" on the cake.

Not quite- lyon is one of the sharpest guys here. He knows what he is talking about. He isnt looking for credibility - he is looking for the guy to drop off the envelope every week.

Good call on Portland tonight