Hope you cashed yesterday. Thank for posting. I will give points after I cash in the SBR Book tomorrow.
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What the record this year?Comment -
so what's the record on this so far? The only play today is denver?Comment -
You have to go all the way back to the last page to find the record. I mean, really, you can't even do that?
How about spending SOME time trying to learn what this is all about instead of just showing up and aksing "WHAT'S THE RECORD?"
You might actually learn something other than just following someone else picks.Comment -
Nice run as of late
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04/08/10
For yesterday, NOR shouldn't count even though the line went to 2, because Paul didn't play, so obviously that would eliminate them as a play.
For today:
CLE qualifies. From what I can read right now, supposedly the starters are playing this game, and resting starting tomorrow. I find the line to be more indicative of the fact that the starters, even if they start, are not going to play the whole game. Keep a very close eye on anything that comes up during the day and the pregame.
Part 1
CLE is a play as long as they play their starters.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
appreciate your input on your system plays... CLE is risky right now based purely on the possible minutes the starters will getComment -
04/09 early report.
8 games have lines up. No line on IND/CLE, TOR/ATL, DET/MIA, LAL/MIN, and CHA/HOU.
PHO opened +3 and has moved to +3.5. At +1.5 or higher, they go from negative to positive.
J. Collins ▪ G. Hill ▪ S. Nash ▪ J. Richardson ▪ A. Stoudemire
have started 6 games (the last 6). PHO is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in these games.
Lopez was replaced by Collins in these games, so it's been more than a week and there currently is no timetable for Lopez to return.
Also, and more importantly, Richardson is questionable with his back spasms.
MEM opened +10.5. At +10 or higher, they qualify as a fade of SAS. SAS goes from positve to over -1.0, so a fade on part 1.
M. Conley ▪ R. Gay ▪ O. Mayo ▪ Z. Randolph ▪ H. Thabeet
Have started 9 games, including the last 4 and 9 of the last 11 (Gasol came back for 2 games in the middle before being out for the rest of the season).
MEM is 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS in these 9 games (1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS in the last 4).
DAL opened +4. They go from negative to positive. Marion missed last game and is questionable to play. There's also the Haywood / Dampier question of who's going to start.
Summary:
Part 1
MEM if you feel comfortable with the current starters.
Part 2
PHO if Richardson plays.
DAL if Marion plays and you feel comfortable with the other starters.
Be back tomorrow with the rest of the games.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
04/08
FWIW, as of now, it has been announced that LeBron is NOT going to play tonight.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
its not a playComment -
04/09
This is late, and I don't have time to do the normal injury info. I'll go over which teams qualify, but as discussed, it's going to be really hard to come up with team's motivational statuses at this point and I may have missed some things.
CLE qualifies mathwise, but is on back-to-back so aren't eligible. Also, not sure exactly who's playing, but definitely some starters are resting.
ATL opened -9. Nothing at that line. Line has moved to -10.5. At -10.5 or higher they go from positive to negative. TOR has injuries, such as Bosh (out for the rest of the regular season, likely longer), that would disqualify them.
Lakers qualify mathwise, but who's actually playing tonight?
NOR opened +6.5, nothing at that number. It's now +7.5 and UTA goes from positive to negative at -7.5 or higher. Chris Paul is out for the season, eliminating NOR from being eligible.
CHA opened +1, nothing at that number. It's moved to +2.5. At +2 or higher they go from negative to positive. Ratliff missed the last game due to the death of his mother. He's listed as questionable for tonight's game.
on other notes - I don't see ANY update ANYWHERE on Phoenix Sun's Richardson, so I'm presuming he's playing.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
Almost requires another filter for the last five games or so of the season when so many starters are uncertain doesn't it? Not implying it can't still be successful, just harder to determine.Comment -
At this point, going to shut it down for the season.
If anyone else wants to post, go ahead. I just don't feel comfortable with being able to guess who's playing, and for how long.
It's been a good season, and by next season, I'll hopefully have updated the spreadsheet to also point out the part 2 plays.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
ty gl next seasonComment -
thanks barts! (gave u some pts)
all in all i think this system produced another 70+% winners this season! too bad i wasn't really able to keep track of the YTD exact numbers. :/Comment -
Thanks for the points.
If I do this next season (don't see any reason I shouldn't, but a lot can happen between now and then), I'll keep a running daily tally of these categories for part 1 and part 2:
Actual plays where there's no question it's a play
Possible plays where there's some doubt but it's likely a play
Games which qualify mathwise but are elminated for b2b
Games which qualify mathwise but are elminated for dd line
Games which qualify mathwise but are elminated for injury
If anyone has any other categories they think would be worth tracking, let me know.
Take Care,
BartComment -
Keep it up.Comment -
Anyone using this system for the playoffs?Comment -
hey barts are you gonna be tracking this system this season?
followed it a bit last season and it seems quite interestingComment -
No.
1) It's a lot of work and produces very few plays.
2) While not this particular thread, this forum in general is full of haters, and I just don't feel like spending a lot of time doing something in a place where it seems like there are more people rooting for something to screw up so they can bash it. If you look through the thread, the spreadsheet should allow you to do the math very easily, then it's just a matter of the reseach about the starters.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
Too bad you won't be posting the plays here. I found the system interesting last year. Best of luck to you!Comment -
Thanks - to you as well.
No reason why someone else couldn't do this.
FWIW, looks like UTAH would be a play tonight as long as the line stays at -9.5 or better (otherwise it would fail the no double digit lines qualifier).
Sacramento goes from negative to positive, but they keep changing their starting lineup, so not sure how to figure out if the "starters" are playing.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
Jazz is indeed a play at -9.5 or better
...and I can post the plays. I'm starting a new thread as to not make things too convoluted
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Could someone explain the inputs to the spreadsheet.
I don't understand the input the numbersComment -
does anyone have tracking this year on this system.......i have been inputting the numbers but not on a strict day to day basis so im not sure of the exact record ytd for 2010-2011 seasonComment -
thanks bart, i remember you from last year, appreciate it!Comment -
Just found this thread and found it interesting.
I would like to back test it going back over at least 10 previous NBA seasons.
I looked over the other "rules" thread links and I believe that I have a fairly good grasp on how to implement the system on a mathematical basis.
One question, however,...how does one determine if we are to play the HOME team or the ROAD team. Or how is it determined if the punter plays the FAV. or the DOG?
Any help is appreciated in advance...thanks.Comment -
how did he come up with the 15.5? and how did he get the -6.5?ok i'll start this tracking again. hopefully u guys also keep track coz sometimes im not available to do so. download the attached excel file below. :P
Last Season's Record : 17-7 70.83%
here are the 'rules' again:
The final number must be 10 or greater for a PLAY!
If the number is less than or equal to -1, then you play the other team ATS.
If the spread is 10 or greater , DO NOT PLAY!
Don't play if selected team played the night before. (No back to back games)
Don't play if one or more starters are OUT. Allow one week for return starters.
Don't play 1st 20 games of the season or 1st 3 games after all star break.
for references:
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12/07 Denver Nuggets was a PLAY!
YTD: 1-0Comment
