this makes quite interesting reading.
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gl on the lakers tonight boysComment -
Just a heads-up that for the next week, I'll be busy, so if I post, it will very likely be brief posts. I'll try to at least say which games qualify mathwise, if any, and people can do injury research.Comment -
03/16
Had some time, likely won't for about a week, so here's today's rundown.
ATL qualifies, but Johnson is definitely out and Bibby is likely out so no play.
CHI qualifies as a fade of MEM (and MEM goes from positive to negative), but CHI has A LOT of issues. Deng, Rose, now Hinrich suspended likely for this game.
PHO qualifies, but is a dd favorite, so is not eligible. Also, I see a status of anywhere from doubtful to probable for Hill.
LAL are on a b2b, so are not eligible, (they were up 11 with less than 2 minutes to go last night), but at a line of -6 or less (opening line was -7 or -6.5 depending on what you use) would qualify mathwise.
No plays for the system. Good Luck if you play anything.Comment -
Yep. 4-0, none count <sigh>.Comment -
maybe phoenix should have scored more
Comment -
03/17
CLE qualifies mathwise, but is on back-to-back and a double digit line.
ORL goes from positive to negative, but SAS on back-to-back so not eligible and there's the Tony Parker issue. The Spurs are 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS since he's been out.
DAL, nothing at opening line. Since the line move to -13.5, they go from positive to negative. At -14.5 they become a fade. But CHI is on a back-to-back and has injuries, the lastest to Rose, who it looks like will miss his 3rd game. Deng will miss his 4th game.
NOR At the opening line of +2, which was around for as much as 1 hour in some places, no play. At +3 they become eligible mathwise.
D. Collison ▪ E. Okafor ▪ M. Peterson ▪ D. West ▪ J. Wright
have now started 4 games (1-3 SU and ATS), and it's been a week. So for those who feel that's enough to ignore that Chris Paul and Peja Stojakovic are out, and are willing to play at other than the "opening" number, good luck to you.
adding
MEM goes from negative to positive. The only thing I can find out about Gasol is that he didn't play last night. Well, gee - thanks for the update injury sites.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
03/18
DEN goes from positive to negative. NOR on back-to-back so aren't eligible. Chris Paul and Peja Stojakovic still out, NOR now 1-4SU and ATS with them both missing.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
03/19
Sorry, no time for injury analysis
IND opened -2.5, now -1. If DET is getting 2.5, they go from negative to positive. At +1, DET becomes a fade, with the value staying negative (-1.3).
PHI opened, +4, and they go from negtive to positve at that number. It's moved to +2.5. At +2 they would be a fade, with the value moving to -1.0
UTA negative to positive.
Lakers eligible mathwise, but are a dd favorite, so are eliminated.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
Im sorry but does that make Det and Phi a play?Comment -
At the opening line, no plays on part 1 of the system.
If you're willing to play at other than the opening lines,
IND at -1 or less as a fade of DET.
NYK if you can get -2 or less as a fade of PHI.
There are injury issues in both games, I just haven't had the time to look at them, so you'll have to do that and then decide if you want to play the games.
There's also the added issue of the positive to negative / negative to postive thing, which I've never gotten comfortable with using.
For me, it's a pass, but that's also partly due to my being busy with other things right now and not having the time to adequately research how the injurys might affect things.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
03/20
TOR qualifies, but are on back-to-back so are eliminated. Also, FWIW, they have sucked this year on the back half of a back-to-back (3-13 ATS, 0-2ATS as a favorite).
CHA goes from negative to positive. They are on back-to-back so are eliminated.
DEN opened -9, no play at that number. The number has moved up. At -9.5, they go from positive to negative. At -10.5 (starting to show up in places), they become a fade. However, MIL is on back-to-back so are eliminated.
DAL opened -4.5. At that number they go from positive to negative (barely - the number comes out to -0.05). Boston is on back-to-back so are eliminated.
Summary: No plays.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
Awesome summaries of every day barts, thanks again for doing them!Comment -
Glad to help when I can.
For today.
03/21/10
LAC At -5, nothing. At -5.5 they go from positive to negative. At -6.5 (hasn't been around, it was -6 for a while, then moved back to -5.5), they become a fade. Evans is out for SAC, so they are eliminated.
CLE qualifies mathwise, but it's a dd line, so they are eliminated.
LAL qualifies mathwise, but it's a dd line, so they are eliminated. Also, Bynum is out, so they wouldn't be eligible anyway. Since he's going to be out for awhile, they are on the 1 week clock for a starter being out for those who choose to work the system that way.
POR+6 qualifies as a fade of PHO.
L. Aldridge ▪ N. Batum ▪ M. Camby ▪ A. Miller ▪ B. Roy
Have started 10 games, including the last 5. The concern is that the games they have started haven't exactly been against anyone good. Here's the list of the 10 games.
Nets 102-93
CHI 111-115
MIN 110-91
MEM 103-93
IND 102-79
Camby missed the game against Denver, the one good team they would have played.
SAC 88-81
GSW 110-105
SAC 110-94
TOR 109-98
WAS 76-74
And now they play Phoenix, a HUGE step up against any of the teams they've played against. Also, Fernandez, who isn't a starer, but plays a decent amount of minutes, is out. But, that's not part of the system, so:
Portland is a play.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
At the opening line of +6, yesterday's game was a push, but hopefully anyone who played the game got one of the many +6.5s that were around during the day and got a win.
03/22
MIA qualifies mathwise, but Jermaine O'Neal missed last game and is listed as questionable / doubtful for this game, so have to pass. If O'Neal plays, anything up to -7.5 would qualify if you want to play it. Other issues, Beasley missed 2 games on 03/12 and 03/14 and now has been back for 3 games. Arroyo hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard since Alston left.
OKC opened either -3.5 or -4.5, depending on where I check, and has moved down and up, currently mostly at -5. The line is right around the borderline. At -3.5, there's no play. At -4, OKC moves from positive to negative. At -5, they become a fade. SAS is on back-to-back and so aren't eligible.
BOS goes from negative to positive. If you use this part of the system, I don't see any reason for them not to be a play.
PHO opened -4.5. At that number, they qualify mathwise, but are on back-to-back so aren't eligible. At -5, they no longer qualify, dropping to 9.7.
Summary:
Part 1 possible play on Miami, if O'Neal plays and if you feel it's been long enough since Alston was replaced by Arroyo.
Part 2 Boston
Good Luck,
BartComment -
Thanks, and good luck
Comment -
About to tip off, O'Neal is playing, line is -7.
Haslem is out, but he's not a starter.Comment -
Congratulations to anyone who won tonight, glad to help out.
I know I've asked before, but if anyone has any insights on part 2 of the system, I'd appreciate hearing them.
I've never felt comfortable with part 2, mostly because, as you can tell from my write-ups, a lot of the games that are a play on part 2 are VERY close and small line moves can make the other side a play.
While I can understand in part 1 why a game would move from being a play to not being a play with a specific line and a small move, I don't feel that the lines are SOOO correct that a half-point or 1 point move should move the game from being a play on one side of a game to a play on the other side of the game. I feel there needs to be a no play zone, and with part 2 of the system, either that zone is very small, or in some cases, non-existent.
Again, open to hearing other's thoughts about this, but that's my feelings about it.Comment -
I've been tracking potential plays since around Jan 23rd. There have been 29 potential "Part 2" plays that were filtered out by either line, injury or btb criteria. Their record: 12-17 41%
By comparison there have been 44 "filtered out" Part 1 plays. Result: 18-23 44%
Of the actual plays (that passed filters), the records are
Part 1: 8-2
Part 2: 4-2
So, "on paper" Part 1 has the stronger record, although it is relatively small sample of data.Comment -
03/23
Nothing on part 1.
IND negative to positive.
D. Granger ▪ R. Hibbert ▪ T. Murphy ▪ B. Rush ▪ E. Watson
have started 16 games this season, including 4 of the last 5 (Granger missed only 1 game, when many sites expected him to miss more, after taking an elbow to the face on 03/16). That's the highest appearance by a starting lineup for IND this season by far. IND is 6-10 SU in these games.
Ford left early in the game on 03/12. He's been out for 5 games.
In the latest 4 games with this lineup, starting on 03/14
03/14 lost at MIL 94-98 as a 4 point favorite
03/16 at home, beat CHA 99-94 as a 2 point dog
03/17 skipping
03/19 at home beat DET 106-102 as a 1.5 point favorite
03/21 at home beat OKC 121-101 as a 4.5 point dog.
So it's been a week, they seem to be doing decently, so I'm guessing the would be useable under part 2 of the system.
Concern would be that the games they have won or covered have been at home, now on the road again.
WAS line has moved from +5.5 to +6.5 with some +7s starting to show up. At +7, CHA moves from positive to negative.
A. Blatche ▪ S. Livingston ▪ J. McGee ▪ M. Miller ▪ A. Thornton
have started the last 4 games, since Livingston took over the starting role from Foye.
In those 4 games,
03/15 lost at UTA 89-112 as an 11 point dog.
03/16 lost at DEN 87-97 as a 14 point dog.
03/19 lost at POR 74-76 as a 12 point dog
03/21 lost at LAL 92-99 as a 13 point dog.
So they covered the last 3.
This will be their first home game. It's been 4 games and over a week. So again, it's been over a week, and they've covered 3 in a row.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
Bart, I just wanted to say thanks for the work you put in. Could you tell me what Part 1 and Part 2 are?
I did the math for tomorrows plays, except for Mil vs. Phi game since the line isnt up yet. I see that Washington qualifies math wise but they are on B2B. Memphis qualifies but Marc Gasol is questionable with a torn muscle in his neck. He is a starter, right?Comment -
Part 1 and Part 2 are described in this article.
Mostly this thread has been about part 1. Part 2 is the negative to positive plays, when a teams value is negative before the spread gets added in, but positive after the spread gets added in (or vice-versa).
My spreadsheet does part 1, not part 2, but if you look, it's easy to see which teams switch from negative to positive or positve to negative comparing column O to column P.
If you use my spreadsheet, make sure the lines are accurate, and make sure that when you run it, the wins/losses have been updated. For example, right now (10:35pm pacific), the wins/losses from today's games have not yet been updated, so any teams that are playing back-to-back would have incorrect calculations done.
The issue with Marc Gasol on Memphis brings up the whole question about injured starters.
He's definitely a starter, when he's available.
He's been out for 4 games, over a week.
So, are you content with the way that the team has performed without him, or do you think they are missing him and the season record would be worse if he hadn't been there throughout the season?
It's always a judgement call. And, once he comes back, since he has been out for more than a week, you now need to wait a week before you can use Memphis.
Hope this helps.
Take Care,
BartComment -
03/24
CHA line has dropped from -10.5 to -9. At -8.5 they would qualify mathwise but are on back-to-back so are not eligible.
DEN negative to positive, but on back-to-back, so not eligible.
IND positive to negative, but WAS on back-to-back, so not eligible. Also, Blatche was benched early yesterday, and likely not playing in the game tonight due to differences with the coach. This is at least part of the reason for the line move from IND -6 to -9.
OKC At the opening of -7, nothing. The line has moved to -8, and OKC now goes from positive to negative. At -8.5, they would be a fade.
T. Ariza ▪ A. Brooks ▪ C. Hayes ▪ K. Martin ▪ L. Scola
Have now started 6 games. Houston is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS in those games.
Also, Battier, who has been seeing less playing time, and hasn't been a starter since 03/09, is out.
MEM qualified at the opening line of PK. The line has mostly moved to MEM -1, and they don't qualify at that number, but some places still do have PK. Marc Gasol has been out 4 games, longer than a week.
M. Conley ▪ R. Gay ▪ O. Mayo ▪ Z. Randolph ▪ H. Thabeet
have started 4 games. MEM is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in those games.
03/16 at home, beat CHI 104-97 as 11 point favorites.
03/17 at HOU, lost 94-107 as 5 point dogs.
03/20 at home, beat GSW 123-107 as 10 point favorites.
03/22 at SAC, won 102-85 as 2 point favorites.
Summary
Part 1:
MEM if you feel comfortable with Gasol being out for more than a week and them now qualifying.
If HOU goes to +8.5, they would qualify if you're willing to use other than the opening number.
Part 2:
HOU at +8 or better, if you're willing to use other than the opening number.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
thanks a lot barts!Comment -
Good luck tonight Bart!"I have never seen a wild thing feel sorry for itself. A little bird will fall dead, frozen from a bough, without ever having felt sorry for itself."
- D.H. LawrenceComment -
Pretty cool. Good luck everyoneComment -
03/25/10
No plays.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
Thanks for the hard work!Comment -
good stuff itt.
Comment -
03/26
DEN opened -4, nothing at that line. At -5 or higher (-5 and -5.5 currently available), DEN moves from positive to negative.
A. Bargnani ▪ C. Bosh ▪ J. Calderon ▪ D. DeRozan ▪ H. Turkoglu
have now been the starting 5 for Toronto for the last 5 games (they were the starters throughout the season as well, starting a total of 26 games). Turkoglu missed the second half of Wednesday's game with a stomach flu, and is questionable for tonight's game.
MIL opened -4.5 at that number or higher, they go from positive to negative. MIA is on back-to-back, so are not eligible. Also, while writing this, the line moved from -4.5 to -3, possibly someone's status has changed.
Summary:
Part 1 - No plays.
Part 2
If Turkoglu plays, and you are willing to take other than the opening number, TOR +5 or higher would be a play.
Good Luck,
BartComment -
3-27
Looks like the Mavs -4 is a playComment -
Dallas -4 and chicago -9.5 and playable using the spreasheet
I'm i right?Comment -
any idea what the record is on this?Comment
