SuicideKings NBA Dec 2009

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  • egr99
    SBR Sharp
    • 07-26-09
    • 310

    #176
    suicide, just stumbled on your thread. I am also working on 1Q/1H side/total... Any suggestions... Still in the very early stages... just looking for "value" from my line against books lines at the moment. You got any suggestions/tips on what to look at?

    egr99
    Comment
    • suicidekings
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 03-23-09
      • 9962

      #177
      Originally posted by egr99
      suicide, just stumbled on your thread. I am also working on 1Q/1H side/total... Any suggestions... Still in the very early stages... just looking for "value" from my line against books lines at the moment. You got any suggestions/tips on what to look at?

      egr99
      The main things I look for are identifying when teams that are prone to fast / slow starts meet, and games where the spread for the full game is creating a weak spot in the 1Q/1H line. For example, a team might be a +7 dog for the game, but be a much better 1Q team that's getting 1Q +2 due to the influence of the full game line. The books have to set 1Q/1H lines in proportion to the full game lines, and that's where the opportunities arise.

      To do all this, you need stats broken down like the ones I posted above. I generate them from collecting game data and post the summaries periodically. Having your own data is way better, as you can do a lot more with it. Hope that helps.
      Comment
      • egr99
        SBR Sharp
        • 07-26-09
        • 310

        #178
        Sounds good, thats one thing I had in mind. Same philosophy as you, the 1Q especially seem to be more vulnerable. Right now I am just creating a line for the side & total and if the "real" line is much different I make it a play. Still got alot of work to do & will start keeping some more detailed stats from here on forward. Interesting thing is right now my totals are falling almost identical to the books lines in 80-85% of the games.

        egr99
        Comment
        • Jiggy Fly
          SBR MVP
          • 05-02-08
          • 1256

          #179
          Great Thread SK. Just poppin in here for the first time. Do you know where I can find ATS results for Q's and H's?
          Comment
          • suicidekings
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 03-23-09
            • 9962

            #180
            Originally posted by Jiggy Fly
            Great Thread SK. Just poppin in here for the first time. Do you know where I can find ATS results for Q's and H's?
            You can't. You have to generate them yourself.
            Comment
            • suicidekings
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 03-23-09
              • 9962

              #181
              I don't have any of my stats/sims with me today. I feel like there's a couple of plays that look great though...

              Leaning towards:

              Cavs -8
              Pacers +8
              Comment
              • SaffaCappa
                SBR MVP
                • 11-18-09
                • 1149

                #182
                Like the Pacers +8, could be a close low scoring game
                Comment
                • suicidekings
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 03-23-09
                  • 9962

                  #183
                  Booked:

                  Pacers +8 (-103) x2.5
                  Clippers +8.5 (-107) x2.5
                  Knicks ML (+137) x1
                  Comment
                  • LaiLai
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 12-07-09
                    • 429

                    #184
                    which of the 3 are u most confident??" i'm quite into clippers +8.5
                    Comment
                    • suicidekings
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 03-23-09
                      • 9962

                      #185
                      12/28 Booked Plays

                      CHR -4 (-105) x2.5
                      WAS ML (+189) x1.25
                      LAL ML (-114) x2.5
                      SAC ML (+100) x2.5
                      POR -6 (-104) x2.
                      5

                      I also really think OKC covers the spread tonight, but with the huge public swing on them and others strongly behind NJ, I'm passing.
                      Comment
                      • darkenergy
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-08-09
                        • 4013

                        #186
                        SK,
                        What's the stats on Celts 3rd quarter????
                        Thinking about taking Boston 3rd q -1.5 BIG tonight.....can you help?
                        Thanks
                        Comment
                        • darkenergy
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-08-09
                          • 4013

                          #187
                          I found that Celts doing terrible after a SU loss....and these are against sh*tty teams like NYK, T'woes, NJN.
                          The play has no value man.
                          Comment
                          • suicidekings
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 03-23-09
                            • 9962

                            #188
                            Originally posted by darkenergy
                            SK,
                            What's the stats on Celts 3rd quarter????
                            Thinking about taking Boston 3rd q -1.5 BIG tonight.....can you help?
                            Thanks
                            They're nothing special in the 3Q (+2.2pts). I'd say the biggest value in Q/H plays in that game are BOS 1H -3 and 1H over 106.
                            Comment
                            • darkenergy
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-08-09
                              • 4013

                              #189
                              Originally posted by suicidekings
                              They're nothing special in the 3Q (+2.2pts). I'd say the biggest value in Q/H plays in that game are BOS 1H -3 and 1H over 106.
                              Thanks SK. I've decided to go with GSW 3q +1.5 for 3x (this is a purely gamble play, as I don't know how Celts will handling the 1H). If BOS fell short big in 1H (7-9 or more), I probably hedge back my play.
                              Comment
                              • suicidekings
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 03-23-09
                                • 9962

                                #190
                                12/29 Booked Plays

                                Cavs ML (+123) x2.5
                                OKC ML (-106) x2.5
                                NOH +5.5 (-102) x2.5
                                Comment
                                • williams22
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 09-19-08
                                  • 6134

                                  #191
                                  Originally posted by suicidekings
                                  12/29 Booked Plays

                                  Cavs ML (+123) x2.5
                                  OKC ML (-106) x2.5
                                  NOH +5.5 (-102) x2.5
                                  Nice to see someone else on the Cavs tonight. GL to you sir
                                  Comment
                                  • suicidekings
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 03-23-09
                                    • 9962

                                    #192
                                    Originally posted by williams22

                                    Nice to see someone else on the Cavs tonight. GL to you sir
                                    Thanks! And to you as well.
                                    Comment
                                    • williams22
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 09-19-08
                                      • 6134

                                      #193
                                      Originally posted by suicidekings
                                      Thanks! And to you as well.
                                      Comment
                                      • suicidekings
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 03-23-09
                                        • 9962

                                        #194
                                        Originally posted by suicidekings
                                        12/29 Booked Plays

                                        Cavs ML (+123) x2.5
                                        OKC ML (-106) x2.5
                                        NOH +5.5 (-102) x2.5
                                        The Hornets should have covered last night... It would have given me a sweep, but i'll take the 2-1 night. I played the NOH 2H pk for 1.25u which fortunately cut my losses (forgot to post).
                                        Comment
                                        • lakerboy
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 04-02-09
                                          • 94379

                                          #195
                                          Hornets was pure bullshit. I still havent gotten over that one. I had that game capped out as a New Orleans win. It was one of my surest plays in ages. Fukkin Rockets hit all their 3's in first half or they would have lsot. Anyways whats your fav play tonight suicide. Im likin g Bucks a little bit.
                                          Comment
                                          • suicidekings
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 03-23-09
                                            • 9962

                                            #196
                                            12/30 Booked Plays

                                            TOR -5.5 (-107) x2.5
                                            NJN ML (+121) x2.5
                                            PHI ML (+117) x2.5


                                            I really like all three of these plays. The books are baiting huge public action with the soft NYK & SAC lines. Toronto has been playing MUCH better defensively recently and I think they should handle the Bobcats easily tonight.

                                            Leans: Hornets, CHR/TOR Under, Hawks ML (gametime decision)
                                            Comment
                                            • suicidekings
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 03-23-09
                                              • 9962

                                              #197
                                              Originally posted by lakerboy
                                              Hornets was pure bullshit. I still havent gotten over that one. I had that game capped out as a New Orleans win. It was one of my surest plays in ages. Fukkin Rockets hit all their 3's in first half or they would have lsot. Anyways whats your fav play tonight suicide. Im likin g Bucks a little bit.
                                              Couldn't agree more. That 4th quarter was painful to watch...

                                              The Magic offense is messed up right now. Carter is shooting too much and Howard isn't being aggressive. However defensively, I think Howard can handle Bogut, and Bogut is critical to the Bucks success so I don't really have a strong lean on that game.
                                              Comment
                                              • suicidekings
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 03-23-09
                                                • 9962

                                                #198
                                                Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                12/30 Booked Plays

                                                TOR -5.5 (-107) x2.5
                                                NJN ML (+121) x2.5
                                                PHI ML (+117) x2.5
                                                2-1 (+3.3u)
                                                Comment
                                                • suicidekings
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 03-23-09
                                                  • 9962

                                                  #199
                                                  There's nothing enticing about tonight's card at all.

                                                  I'm leaning towards Houston, Detroit, OKC, Philly & Miami, but have no legitimate angles on any game large enough to pull the trigger. I think I;m just going to take the day off and enjoy the night.

                                                  GL to everyone and be careful with this card. Happy New Years!!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • freddues
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 02-29-08
                                                    • 591

                                                    #200
                                                    I guess you missed the Jazz/OKC OVER. Got it at 197 last night. Big value here!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • suicidekings
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 03-23-09
                                                      • 9962

                                                      #201
                                                      Originally posted by freddues
                                                      I guess you missed the Jazz/OKC OVER. Got it at 197 last night. Big value here!
                                                      IMO, you're on the wrong side of that...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • suicidekings
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 03-23-09
                                                        • 9962

                                                        #202
                                                        Watching the lines has convinced me on the Rockets.

                                                        HOU ML (+104) x3
                                                        Comment
                                                        • TGoat
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 08-07-09
                                                          • 612

                                                          #203
                                                          Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                          Watching the lines has convinced me on the Rockets.

                                                          HOU ML (+104) x3
                                                          What was it about the line move that sold you on Houston?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • suicidekings
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 03-23-09
                                                            • 9962

                                                            #204
                                                            Houston is the definition of a live dog. I capped this game out as a pk, so the combination of the 77% of bettors on Dallas and the tight line screamed SU win for the Rockets to me.
                                                            Comment
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