SuicideKings NBA Dec 2009

[suicidekings]

12/13

MEM 1Q ML (+159) x0.5
MEM 1H +3.5 (-103) x0.5

[suicidekings]

CLE 1Q -0.5 (-121) x0.25
CLE / OKC 1Q OVER 48.5 (-121) x0.5
CLE / OKC 1H OVER 97 (-115) x0.5
PARLAY: OKC ML / OVER 191 (+339) x0.25

[suicidekings]

SAN / LAC OVER 47.5 (-118) x0.25
LAC 1Q ML (+136) x0.5
LAC 1H +3 (-115) x0.5

[suicidekings]

OKC 2H +3.5 (-108) x0.25
CLE / OKC 2H UNDER 95 (-110) x0.25

[suicidekings]

12/13: 7-8 (-0.65u)

Ah the Clippers... What was I thinking....

[suicidekings]

12/13: Full game sims

sim line, sim total, ats pick (%), ml pick (%), o/u pick (%)

hou -1 @ tor, 203, ats tor +2 (55.9%), ml hou (57.1%), over 203 (50.8%)
njn @ atl -11.5, 197.5, ats njn +12.5 (53.8%), ml atl (94%), under 198.5 (53.9%)
mem @ mia -4, 200, ats mem +7 (68.3%), ml mia (70.7%), over 195.5 (73.6%)
cle @ okc -1.5, 193, ats okc +3.5 (78%), ml okc (59.5%), over 191 (62.8%)
san @ lac -0.5, 187.5, ats lac +6 (87.3%), ml lac (54.9%), over 187 (52.5%)

12/13: Ats: 2-3, ml: 1-4, o/u: 0-3-1
ytd: Ats: 16-8, ml: 16-8, o/u: 12-10-1

12/13 first half sims

sim line, sim total, ats pick (%), o/u pick (%)

hou @ tor -4, 106, ats tor +1 (92%), over 103 (79.6%)
njn @ atl -5.5, 102.5, ats njn +6.5 (58.6%), over 99.5 (76.2%)
mem pk @ mia, 101.5, ats mem +3.5 (85.1%), over 99 (75.6%)
cle -2 @ okc, 103, ats cle -1.5 (53.1%), over 96.5 (97.1%)
san @ lac -1.5, 97.5, ats lac +3 (91.3%), over 95 (79.2%)

12/13: Ats: 2-3, o/u: 4-1
ytd: 11-4

[lakerboy]

good work-

[suicidekings]

After just 3 days, it's become very apparent that I need to incorporate rest into the sims. Crunching the numbers on this season so far, I get the following preliminary numbers. The results are based on average MOVs for all teams in the various situations.

I'd love some commentary on how reasonable they are for general use.

Rest Adjustments
A) B2B Game 1: -1.5pts
B) B2B Game 2: -3pts
C) 3rd Game in 4 Days: -1pt
D) 4th Game in 5 Days: -3pts
E) 4th Game in 6 Days: -2pts
F) B2B Game 2 is on the Road: -1pt

Example

[ HM GM ] [ RD GM ] [ REST ] [ RD GM ] [ HM GM ] [ REST ] [ HM GM ]

= [ A ] [ B + F ] [ / ] [ A + C ] [ B + D ] [ / ] [ E ]

= [ -1.5 ] [ -4.5 ] [ / ] [ -2.5 ] [ -6 ] [ / ] [ -2 ]

[suicidekings]

12/14: Overnight Totals

GSW / PHI UNDER 209 (-110)
OKC / DEN UNDER 208 (-106)
NOH / DAL OVER 195.5 (-113)

Also leaning BOS -8 & DEN -10.5

[bustabook]

beautiful work suicide..

[WhatAboutMeBitch]

looks good, good luck today

[Glitch]

b2b game2 is the most important and i feel like its more than 3 points...maybe close to 5 or 6

[suicidekings]

No time to posts sim results today, although all of my plays today correspond with them.

12/14 Booked Plays

DEN -10 (-110) x2
BOS -7.5 (-104) x2
NOH +9 (-104) x1
WAS ML (+108) x0.5

GSW / PHI UNDER 209 (-110) x1
OKC / DEN UNDER 208 (-106) x0.5
NOH / DAL OVER 195.5 (-113) x1
BOS / MEM UNDER 195 (-109) x1

UTA 1Q -3.5 (-110) x0.5
NOH 1Q +3 (-105) x0.25
IND 1Q +4 (+100) x0.25

[TGoat]

After just 3 days, it's become very apparent that I need to incorporate rest into the sims. Crunching the numbers on this season so far, I get the following preliminary numbers. The results are based on average MOVs for all teams in the various situations.

I'd love some commentary on how reasonable they are for general use.

Rest Adjustments
A) B2B Game 1: -1.5pts
B) B2B Game 2: -3pts
C) 3rd Game in 4 Days: -1pt
D) 4th Game in 5 Days: -3pts
E) 4th Game in 6 Days: -2pts
F) B2B Game 2 is on the Road: -1pt

What I got from the PDF article was that the bulk of the home court advantage in the NBA was due to "non-related factors." Rest plays a part, to be sure, but not as big a part as everyone (including me) previously believed.

In my opinion, this makes quantifying the "rest factor" even more difficult.

From the article:

"The travel schedule effect is most clearly illustrated by the fact that visiting teams with back to back games are estimated to be 1.77 points worse off on average than visiting teams that are fully rested. The data also suggest that traveling teams score one point less during their second game on each trip, but this observation is only weakly significant.

When the issue of the home team advantage was studied with respect to the number of games won or lost, as opposed to the number of points scored, the data once again showed the importance of the tight schedule faced by the traveling teams. As with the margin of victory measured in points, the condition indicating the highest effect was when the visiting team played the second of a back to back pair of games. In this case, the odds of the visiting team winning were decreased to an estimated 75% of those corresponding to the fully rested state, although the level of significance was weak. Based on these analyses, we conclude that the extraordinary high home court advantage enjoyed by NBA teams is partially explained by the tendency of the NBA schedules for the traveling teams to have reduced rest, but that the bulk of the advantage arises from other, non-related factors."

[djiddish98]

I agree with TGoat. The goal of the article was to investigate the impact of rest at the league level as well. Each team responds differently to rest, and therefore, I think a rest adjustment per team would be needed if you're going to use rest as a variable. The problem with this is that the sample size is so small (a team might play a 4 in 6 three times a year) that you wouldn't get any meaningful number.

[djiddish98]

I would also like to add that you should run two samples perhaps - one with a rest factor included, and one without. Let this run for 30 applicable games perhaps and see if there's any validity to the adjustments. That might give you a solid foundation going forward.

[bustabook]

tgoat... did the article happen to mention the "non-related" factors?

[TGoat]

tgoat... did the article happen to mention the "non-related" factors?

He touches on them (with citations) in this paragraph toward the beginning of the article. If there are others, he doesn't say.

"Two survey articles on the home court advantage in sports are Courneya and Carron(1992), and Nevill and Holder (1999). Courney and Carron identified four factors that could account for home-court advantage: crowd factors, familiarity with local conditions, travel factors, and effects related to rule differences for the home versus visiting team. Recent studies have examined the effect of rule differences (Simon and Simonoff, 2006), the variation in the home court advantage from team-to-team (Horville, Smith, and Rubin, 1994), and how the home-court advantage accumulates over the course of a game (Jones, 2007). In this study, we consider the role of travel factors in the home-court advantage in NBA basketball."

[bustabook]

..crowd factors, familiarity with local conditions, travel factors, and effects related to rule differences for the home versus visiting team.

very interesting stuff here.. this definately makes it harder to put a solid value on home-court advantage.. but also gives insight into the factors that might contribute.

thanks goat.

[suicidekings]

Rest adjustment scratched for the moment. It needs more thought before I try it again.

However, in an effort to pick up on each team's current form a little better, I added an additional round of sims that use data from the past 24 days (typically 10-11 games per team) instead of the full season.

12/15 (CURRENT FORM)

NJN @ CLE: NJN+14.5 (77%), OVER 196.5 (91%)
NYK @ CHR: OVER 196 (94%)
TOR @ MIA: TOR +7 (83%), UNDER 205.5 (66%)
LAL @ CHI: LAL -9.5 (63%), OVER 193 (85%)
DET @ HOU: DET +5 (76%), OVER 189 (58%)
SAN @ PHX: UNDER 209.5 (63%)
SAC @ POR: SAC +7 (58%), OVER 201.5 (77%)

GAINED VALUE FROM LINE MOVEMENT
LOST VALUE FROM LINE MOVEMENT

[landers781]

Good luck tonight got Sac, San Antoine and Chi

Prob will hit some 2nd half plays tonight as well

[suicidekings]

Good luck tonight got Sac, San Antoine and Chi

Prob will hit some 2nd half plays tonight as well

Thanks man. Good Luck tonight. I like Sac & San Antonio, but I think the Lakers are going to beat down the Bulls tonight.

[suicidekings]

12/15 Booked Plays

NJN / CLE 1Q OVER 50.5 (-121) x0.25
CHR 1Q -1.5 (-110) x0.25
CHR GM -5 (-103) x1
HOU 1Q -1.5 (-110) x0.25
TEASER (3tm, 5pt) (+160) x1
-- CHR pk
-- LAL -4.5
-- SAN +6.5

ML PARLAY (+915) x0.5
-- Bobcats
-- Raptors
-- Spurs

[bustabook]

gl suicide- got some different plays than you but i always like seeing what you got.

[suicidekings]

TOR 1Q ML (+146) x0.25

[darkenergy]

12/15 Booked Plays NJN / CLE 1Q OVER 50.5 (-121) x0.25 CHR 1Q -1.5 (-110) x0.25 CHR GM -5 (-103) x1 HOU 1Q -1.5 (-110) x0.25 TEASER (3tm, 5pt) (+160) x1 -- CHR pk -- LAL -4.5 -- SAN +6.5 ML PARLAY (+915) x0.5 -- Bobcats -- Raptors -- Spurs

Great job SK

[darkenergy]

TOR 1Q ML (+146) x0.25

I wish I was see the OVER cavs early to play, but TOR 1q got me +1unit, thanks for posting SK

[suicidekings]

I wish I was see the OVER cavs early to play, but TOR 1q got me +1unit, thanks for posting SK

Thanks for the points, buddy. Just need a HOU win for a 1Q sweep today

[suicidekings]

MIA 2H -1 (+114) x0.25

[darkenergy]

Look like you doing good on 1H plays. I didn't tail you on Houston play as I have Houston whole game.
great job SK

[suicidekings]

TEASER (3tm, 5/7pt) (+160) x1.25
-- SAC +12
-- SAC / POR OVER 194
-- LAC / MIN OVER 184.5 (12/16)

[suicidekings]

LIVE BET ( @ End of 3Q)

Spurs ML (+216) x1

[suicidekings]

12/16 Booked Plays

MEM 1H +5 (-105) x1
MEM / ATL 1H OVER 105 (-103) x0.5
CHR / IND UNDER 192 (-110) x0.5
DAL / OKC 1H OVER 99 (-102) x0.5

MEM 1Q +3 (+100) x0.5
NJN 1Q +3 (-110) x0.5
LAC 1Q pk (+101) x0.5
NOH 1Q -1.5 (-110) x1
DAL 1Q -0.5 (-105) x0.5
SAN 1Q -1.5 (-110) x1

[suicidekings]

RR PARLAY

IND -3.5 / MIN -1.5 (+273) x0.25
MIN -1.5 / NOH -4.5 (+260) x0.25
NOH -4.5 / IND -3.5 (+273) x0.25
IND-3.5 / MIN -1.5 / NOH -4.5 (+603) x0.25

[suicidekings]

And really just for fun... An SBR Point Parlay

ORLANDO ML (-800)
MEMPHIS +9½ (-110)
PHILADELPHIA +5½ (-110)
INDIANA -3½ (-110)
UTAH ML (-450)
MINNESOTA ML (-115)
MILWAUKEE +5 (-110)
NEW ORLEANS -4½ (-110)
OKLAHOMA CITY +2 (-110)
DENVER ML (-400)
WASHINGTON ML (+130)
SAN ANTONIO -5½ (-110)

10 PTS TO WIN 6821