SuicideKings NBA Dec 2009

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • suicidekings
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-23-09
    • 9962

    #71
    Simulated games

    NJN @ IND -4, 192, IND (-4) ATS (55.4%), IND ML (73.6%), UNDER 198.5 (82.7%)
    HOU -5 @ PHI, 195, HOU (-2.5) ATS (64.9%), HOU ML (78.1%), OVER 193.5 (59.1%)
    NYK @ NOH -3, 197.5, NYK (+6.5) ATS (70.7%), NOH ML (69.5%), UNDER 205.5 (89.8%)
    GSW @ CHI -3.5, 200.5, GSW (+4.5) ATS (60.7%), CHI ML (70.9%), UNDER 213.5 (99.1%)
    POR @ CLE -1.5, 188, POR (+10) ATS (89.3%), CLE ML (58.7%), OVER 187 (58.2%)
    OKC @ MEM -1, 191.5, OKC (+2) ATS (55.3%), MEM ML (56.3%), UNDER 197 (80.7%)
    CHR @ SAN -7.5, 188.5, SAN (-7.5) ATS (50.7%), SAN ML (87.7%), OVER 188 (53.2%)
    MIN @ LAL -12, 188.5, MIN (+15) ATS (68.1%), LAL ML (95%), OVER 197.5 (53.2%)
    ORL @ PHX -4.5, 207, PHX (-2.5) ATS (58.4%), PHX ML (73.3%), UNDER 212.5 (77.6%)
    ATL @ TOR (-0.5), 200.5, TOR (+3.5) ATS (72.4%), TOR ML (51.3%), UNDER 209 (88%)
    DAL -3 @ MIA, 190, DAL (-1) ATS (59.8%), DAL ML (64.8%), UNDER 194 (70.6%)

    All percentages refer to performance relative to available lines at time of posting.
    Comment
    • suicidekings
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 03-23-09
      • 9962

      #72
      PARLAY: NYK +6.5 / UNDER 206.5 (+281) x0.25
      Comment
      • suicidekings
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 03-23-09
        • 9962

        #73
        POR +10 (-106) x0.5
        NYK +6.5 (-101) x0.5
        Comment
        • suicidekings
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 03-23-09
          • 9962

          #74
          POR 2H +10 (-105) x0.5
          Comment
          • suicidekings
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 03-23-09
            • 9962

            #75
            PARLAY (+1294) x0.25
            -- NYK 2H +1
            -- CHI 2H -4.5
            -- POR 2H +10.5
            -- OKC 2H +4
            Comment
            • suicidekings
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 03-23-09
              • 9962

              #76
              PHX -3 (-111) x0.5
              Comment
              • suicidekings
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 03-23-09
                • 9962

                #77
                Originally posted by suicidekings
                Simulated games

                NJN @ IND -4, 192, IND (-4) ATS (55.4%), IND ML (73.6%), UNDER 198.5 (82.7%)
                HOU -5 @ PHI, 195, HOU (-2.5) ATS (64.9%), HOU ML (78.1%), OVER 193.5 (59.1%)
                NYK @ NOH -3, 197.5, NYK (+6.5) ATS (70.7%), NOH ML (69.5%), UNDER 205.5 (89.8%)
                GSW @ CHI -3.5, 200.5, GSW (+4.5) ATS (60.7%), CHI ML (70.9%), UNDER 213.5 (99.1%)
                POR @ CLE -1.5, 188, POR (+10) ATS (89.3%), CLE ML (58.7%), OVER 187 (58.2%)
                OKC @ MEM -1, 191.5, OKC (+2) ATS (55.3%), MEM ML (56.3%), UNDER 197 (80.7%)
                CHR @ SAN -7.5, 188.5, SAN (-7.5) ATS (50.7%), SAN ML (87.7%), OVER 188 (53.2%)
                MIN @ LAL -12, 188.5, MIN (+15) ATS (68.1%), LAL ML (95%), OVER 197.5 (53.2%)
                ORL @ PHX -4.5, 207, PHX (-2.5) ATS (58.4%), PHX ML (73.3%), UNDER 212.5 (77.6%)
                ATL @ TOR (-0.5), 200.5, TOR (+3.5) ATS (72.4%), TOR ML (51.3%), UNDER 209 (88%)
                DAL -3 @ MIA, 190, DAL (-1) ATS (59.8%), DAL ML (64.8%), UNDER 194 (70.6%)

                All percentages refer to performance relative to available lines at time of posting.
                12/11 Results
                ATS: 9-2
                ML: 8-3
                O/U: 7-4

                I'm pretty stoked about these results on the first day. Pretty sure there was a LOT of luck involved, but I'll take it.
                Comment
                • suicidekings
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 03-23-09
                  • 9962

                  #78
                  12/11: 3-3-1 (+0.53u) The PHX push to end off the night was a bit anticlimactic, but wtv. A positive day for a change is great...

                  Something to build on.
                  Comment
                  • suicidekings
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 03-23-09
                    • 9962

                    #79
                    12/12 Simulations

                    Sim Line, Sim Total, ATS Pick (%), ML Pick (%), O/U Pick (%)

                    IND @ WAS -3, 200, ATS IND +7.5 (71.2%), ML WAS (67.8%), UNDER 207 (83.4%)
                    GSW @ DET -4.5, 199.5, ATS GSW +6 (58.0%), ML DET (76.6%), UNDER 205.5 (83.2%)
                    BOS -4.5 @ CHI, 184.5, ATS CHI +9.5 (81.0%), ML BOS (76.6%), UNDER 186.5 (64.9%)
                    CHR @ DAL -6, 187, ATS CHR +7 (54.4%), ML DAL (83.8%), UNDER 189 (62.0%)
                    POR @ MIL -2, 192, ATS POR +4 (61.1%), ML MIL (60.9%), OVER 190.5 (56.2%)
                    PHX @ DEN -8, 216, ATS PHX +8.5 (53.3%), ML DEN (86.9%), UNDER 224.5 (88.0%)
                    LAL @ UTA -3, 198, ATS UTA -2 (53.4%), ML UTA (63.1%), UNDER 202 (69.7%)
                    MIN @ SAC -8.5, 204, ATS SAC -7.5 (55.3%), ML SAC (88.0%), UNDER 204.5 (52.5%)

                    *5000 simulations per game
                    Comment
                    • suicidekings
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 03-23-09
                      • 9962

                      #80
                      12/12 Booked Plays

                      CHI +9.5 (-105) x1.5
                      IND +7.5 (-114) x1
                      IND 1H +4 (+100) x0.5
                      POR +4 (-112) x1
                      POR 1H +2.5 (-111) X0.5
                      GSW/DET UNDER 206 (-104) x0.5
                      TEASER (+600) x0.25
                      -- IND +12.5
                      -- GSW +10.5
                      -- CHI +14.5
                      -- CHR +12
                      -- POR +9
                      -- PHX +13.5
                      Comment
                      • suicidekings
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 03-23-09
                        • 9962

                        #81
                        It was very easy to modify the simulations to do first halves, so I ran them for all games. I'm not going to post all of them, but the best picks were:

                        Sim Line, Selection(s)

                        IND @ WAS PK, ATS IND +4 (87%)
                        POR @ MIL -1, ATS POR +2.5 (71.3%)
                        PHX @ DEN (109.5), UNDER 114 (89.6%)
                        LAL @ UTA (105.5), OVER 103 (74.3%)
                        MIN @ SAC (106.5), OVER 104 (72.3%)
                        Comment
                        • don logan
                          Restricted User
                          • 12-19-07
                          • 744

                          #82
                          GL w/Portland, bro
                          Comment
                          • suicidekings
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 03-23-09
                            • 9962

                            #83
                            Originally posted by suicidekings
                            12/12 Booked Plays

                            CHI +9.5 (-105) x1.5
                            IND +7.5 (-114) x1
                            IND 1H +4 (+100) x0.5
                            POR +4 (-112) x1
                            POR 1H +2.5 (-111) X0.5
                            GSW/DET UNDER 206 (-104) x0.5
                            TEASER (+600) x0.25
                            -- IND +12.5
                            -- GSW +10.5
                            -- CHI +14.5
                            -- CHR +12
                            -- POR +9
                            -- PHX +13.5
                            Adding

                            ML PARLAY - DET / DAL / UTA (+230) x1
                            Comment
                            • suicidekings
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 03-23-09
                              • 9962

                              #84
                              GSW 2H +5 (-111) x0.5
                              Comment
                              • suicidekings
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 03-23-09
                                • 9962

                                #85
                                LAL / UTA 2H UNDER 99.5 (-104) x0.5
                                UTA 2H ML (+120) x0.5
                                Comment
                                • lakerboy
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 04-02-09
                                  • 94379

                                  #86
                                  Bro with all due respect I cant for the life of me understand why you bet so many events.
                                  Comment
                                  • suicidekings
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 03-23-09
                                    • 9962

                                    #87
                                    Originally posted by lakerboy
                                    Bro with all due respect I cant for the life of me understand why you bet so many events.
                                    I feel like it's spreading the risk around rather than relying on 1-2 games. I put a lot of time into building the models I use for these games, and the output provides info for all the games with only marginally more effort than if I used it for 1-2. That being said, if I see 8-10 of what I feel are high percentage plays, why not diversify?
                                    Comment
                                    • suicidekings
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 03-23-09
                                      • 9962

                                      #88
                                      12/12: 7-4-0 (+2.4u)
                                      Comment
                                      • bustabook
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 11-14-09
                                        • 737

                                        #89
                                        looks good suicide... having fun yet?
                                        Comment
                                        • suicidekings
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 03-23-09
                                          • 9962

                                          #90
                                          Originally posted by suicidekings
                                          12/12 Full Game simulations

                                          sim line, sim total, ats pick (%), ml pick (%), o/u pick (%)

                                          ind @ was -3, 200, ats ind +7.5 (71.2%), ml was (67.8%), under 207 (83.4%)
                                          gsw @ det -4.5, 199.5, ats gsw +6 (58.0%), ml det (76.6%), under 205.5 (83.2%)
                                          bos -4.5 @ chi, 184.5, ats chi +9.5 (81.0%), ml bos (76.6%), under 186.5 (64.9%)
                                          chr @ dal -6, 187, ats chr +7 (54.4%), ml dal (83.8%), under 189 (62.0%)
                                          por @ mil -2, 192, ats por +4 (61.1%), ml mil (60.9%), over 190.5 (56.2%)
                                          phx @ den -8, 216, ats phx +8.5 (53.3%), ml den (86.9%), under 224.5 (88.0%)
                                          lal @ uta -3, 198, ats uta -2 (53.4%), ml uta (63.1%), under 202 (69.7%)
                                          min @ sac -8.5, 204, ats sac -7.5 (55.3%), ml sac (88.0%), under 204.5 (52.5%)

                                          *5000 simulations per game
                                          12/12
                                          ats: 5-3
                                          ml: 7-1
                                          o/u: 5-3

                                          ytd
                                          ats: 14-5
                                          ml: 15-4
                                          o/u:12-7


                                          Originally posted by suicidekings
                                          First Half Sim Line Selections

                                          IND @ WAS PK, ATS IND +4 (87%)
                                          POR @ MIL -1, ATS POR +2.5 (71.3%)
                                          PHX @ DEN (109.5), UNDER 114 (89.6%)
                                          LAL @ UTA (105.5), OVER 103 (74.3%)
                                          MIN @ SAC (106.5), OVER 104 (72.3%)
                                          First Halves 12/12: 5-0
                                          Comment
                                          • suicidekings
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 03-23-09
                                            • 9962

                                            #91
                                            Oh yeah man. Great day for the Sims and my own plays. I just need to figure out how to implement a factor for rest (B2B, 3 in 4, 4 in 5, 4 in 6). I'm going to need to do some number crunching to try to quantify the effect.
                                            Comment
                                            • bustabook
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 11-14-09
                                              • 737

                                              #92
                                              here ya go... maybe this will help a little. i haven't read the whole thing but it seems to be relevant to your "problem".

                                              Comment
                                              • lafaz32
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 12-07-09
                                                • 285

                                                #93
                                                Nice sweep on the 1H bets, I like the way your system is working, looking forward for tomorrows picks!
                                                Comment
                                                • TGoat
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 08-07-09
                                                  • 612

                                                  #94
                                                  Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                  12/12
                                                  ats: 5-3
                                                  ml: 7-1
                                                  o/u: 5-3

                                                  ytd
                                                  ats: 14-5
                                                  ml: 15-4
                                                  o/u:12-7




                                                  First Halves 12/12: 5-0
                                                  Great start. Hope it continues for you.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • suicidekings
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 03-23-09
                                                    • 9962

                                                    #95
                                                    12/13: FULL GAME SIMS

                                                    Sim Line, Sim Total, ATS Pick (%), ML Pick (%), O/U Pick (%)

                                                    HOU -1 @ TOR, 203, ATS TOR +2 (55.9%), ML HOU (57.1%), OVER 203 (50.8%)
                                                    NJN @ ATL -11.5, 197.5, ATS NJN +12.5 (53.8%), ML ATL (94%), UNDER 198.5 (53.9%)
                                                    MEM @ MIA -4, 200, ATS MEM +7 (68.3%), ML MIA (70.7%), OVER 195.5 (73.6%)
                                                    CLE @ OKC -1.5, 193, ATS OKC +3.5 (78%), ML OKC (59.5%), OVER 191 (62.8%)
                                                    SAN @ LAC -0.5, 187.5, ATS LAC +6 (87.3%), ML LAC (54.9%), OVER 187 (52.5%)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • suicidekings
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 03-23-09
                                                      • 9962

                                                      #96
                                                      12/13 FIRST HALF SIMS (1H SPREADS ASSUMED FROM FULL GAME LINES, TOTALS PENDING)

                                                      Sim Line, Sim Total, ATS Pick (%), O/U Pick (%)

                                                      HOU @ TOR -4, 106, ATS TOR +1 (92%), OVER 103 (79.6%)
                                                      NJN @ ATL -5.5, 102.5, ATS NJN +6.5 (58.6%), OVER 99.5 (76.2%)
                                                      MEM pk @ MIA, 101.5, ATS MEM +3.5 (85.1%), OVER 99 (75.6%)
                                                      CLE -2 @ OKC, 103, ATS CLE -1.5 (53.1%), OVER 96.5 (97.1%)
                                                      SAN @ LAC -1.5, 97.5, ATS LAC +3 (91.3%), OVER 95 (79.2%)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • suicidekings
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 03-23-09
                                                        • 9962

                                                        #97
                                                        Overnight plays

                                                        OKC +3.5 (-110) x1
                                                        LAC +6 (-113) x1

                                                        Maybe a 1H TOR play tomorrow morning, if I get up in time. Otherwise, I don't see any value in the first two games of the day at all...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • bustabook
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 11-14-09
                                                          • 737

                                                          #98
                                                          like those plays suicide- got a question... how are you determining a PLAY or NO PLAY (> 70% in simulations i assume)?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • suicidekings
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 03-23-09
                                                            • 9962

                                                            #99
                                                            Originally posted by bustabook
                                                            like those plays suicide- got a question... how are you determining a PLAY or NO PLAY (> 70% in simulations i assume)?
                                                            I don't have a set criteria as yet. Any number I assign would be arbitrary, but i'm thinking it'll be a process of being able to justify the play in other ways. My sim uses full season stats, but doesn't take current form, rest, etc into account yet. Once I'm confident that I've dealt with the various factors that I feel affect the outcome of the game, then maybe a stricter criteria will become apparent. Until then, I'm just playing it by ear.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • suicidekings
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 03-23-09
                                                              • 9962

                                                              #100
                                                              Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                              Overnight plays

                                                              OKC +3.5 (-110) x1
                                                              LAC +6 (-113) x1

                                                              Maybe a 1H TOR play tomorrow morning, if I get up in time. Otherwise, I don't see any value in the first two games of the day at all...
                                                              Adding:

                                                              TOR 1H pk (+106) x0.5
                                                              HOU / TOR 1H OVER 103 (-106) x0.5
                                                              Comment
                                                              • suicidekings
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 03-23-09
                                                                • 9962

                                                                #101
                                                                12/13: Live Betting (during 2Q)

                                                                HOU GM ML (+276) x1
                                                                Comment
                                                                • suicidekings
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 03-23-09
                                                                  • 9962

                                                                  #102
                                                                  Originally posted by suicidekings

                                                                  Adding:

                                                                  TOR 1H pk (+106) x0.5
                                                                  HOU / TOR 1H OVER 103 (-106) x0.5
                                                                  I got greedy here with the total... 1-1 (+0u)...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • suicidekings
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 03-23-09
                                                                    • 9962

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                                    12/13: Live Betting (during 2Q)

                                                                    HOU GM ML (+276) x1
                                                                    Added HOU +11 (-108) in the 4Q.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • suicidekings
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 03-23-09
                                                                      • 9962

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Originally posted by suicidekings

                                                                      hou gm ml (+276) x1
                                                                      hou +11 (-108) x0.5
                                                                      0-2 (-1.54)

                                                                      That was Toronto's best defensive game of the season (at least among the games I've watched) and the first time I've seen them maintain a lead from the first half. Ariza disgraceful.. letting his frustration from going 0-9 get to him by taking a shot at the back on Brooks' head with his elbow = technical foul + ejection.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • djpremier36
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 12-11-08
                                                                        • 3479

                                                                        #105
                                                                        Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                                        Overnight plays

                                                                        OKC +3.5 (-110) x1


                                                                        LAC +6 (-113) x1
                                                                        I'm leaning the same...as well as MEM possibly...GL homes!
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...