NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

**JMon** · 12-08-14, 05:38 PM

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12-8-14 - 4:35p CT

Play: Sun +7.5 -110

SDQL: A and p:AFL and 1 <= rest <= 2 and 2004<=season and -21 < p:margin < -1 and line>-10 and P:L and P:season=season

English: Since 2004, play a present season revenge road team off a loss (off no more than 20) as a road favorite on a day or two rest and is a dog or fav of no more than 9.

**JMon** · 12-08-14, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by SportsMind

I'm going to withdraw from Best Bet as I just haven't had the time lately.

This crazy query had a bad result earlier this month but is showing up again.

10-32 (-6.38, 23.8%)
3-37-2 (-6.45, 7.5%)	avg line: -0.1
20-20-2 (-0.63, 50.0%)	avg total: 196.8

That's too bad Sports..

Two spots open...let me know who wants them.

**dmitean** · 12-08-14, 05:56 PM

I will give it a go, if you will have me...

**JMon** · 12-08-14, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by dmitean

I will give it a go, if you will have me...

Would love to have you dmitean! For the record, after some thought I will adjust the group record and let newbies start will a clean slate. Let me know if anyone disagrees with this!

One spot left!

**dmitean** · 12-08-14, 06:29 PM

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12-8-14 - 4:35p CT

Play: Wizards -9 +106

SDQL: P:L and o:team=po:team and team=opo:team and P:AF and playoffs = 0

English: Play the team that lost as a road favorite and now plays at home, in a spot, where two teams play each other B2B.

**JMon** · 12-08-14, 06:33 PM

dmitean...please convert to American odds for me pal!

**dalogester** · 12-08-14, 06:34 PM

Play: Wizards +9 (1,97 odds)

i want to know the book you are using.

**Consigliere** · 12-08-14, 06:40 PM

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12-8-14 - 6:37PMET

Play: Nuggets +9.5 -102 (Pinny)
SDQL: A and tA(o

oints)>=103 and p:M2<=-10 and pp:M2<=-10
English: Play an away team giving up an average of 103 points and previously trailed at half time the last two games. This is a contrarian type play where a team is giving up lots of points and put themselves in a big hole. Swallow and take the big dog. Also helps that Toronto is not nearly the same team without Derozan, although their last game none of their supporting cast stepped up (which they normally do, at least one anyways) so I expect that to reverse itself a bit. Feel like this is a 6-7 point game so some value in the line.

**pip2** · 12-08-14, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by JMon

Pip is that play, official?

Jmon, if I have a choice, I retract that play. I don't fully understand the rules of what I can and can't do...

Thanks.

**JMon** · 12-08-14, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by pip2

Jmon, if I have a choice, I retract that play. I don't fully understand the rules of what I can and can't do...

Thanks.

It's gone...didn't really have anything set in stone on buying out...but if was before the game starts..Let me know if anyone disagrees.

**pip2** · 12-08-14, 07:59 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

If there is still time:

12/8/14 5:50pm Reduced Basketball 511 Utah Jazz +5½ -109* vs Sacramento Kings

SDQL:

playoffs=0 and season > 2000 and tS(W)-(tS(W)/1.3) < oS(W) and p:TPM*3/p

oints + p

oints in the paint/p

oints > .76

SDQL: English

play the team that is fairly close to its opponent in winning percentage and that scored more than 3/4 of its points in the previous game in the paint and beyond the arc.

**Consigliere** · 12-08-14, 09:33 PM

Here is an interesting table...how the trends have stacked up so far split by team the choice was on. These are ATS picks only, and haven't split out as fav or dog...would make sense that there are outlier teams when it comes to situational betting practices and maybe as simple as using this to filter out picks. As a whole the ATS picks are doing well and the trends cancelling each other out has proved to be profitable for +9 units or so depending on your juice.


Row Labels	Sum of Win	Sum of Loose	Sum of Unique wins	Sum of Unique Losses
Buck	1	0	1	0
Bull	7	5	3	2
Cava	3	6	1	2
Celt	3	0	2	0
Clip	12	2	4	0
Griz	3	5	2	3
Hawk	4	1	3	1
Heat	3	1	2	1
Horn	5	0	3	0
Jazz	2	0	2	0
King	3	2	3	1
Knic	2	9	0	3
Lake	3	3	1	2
Magi	5	3	5	2
Mave	4	6	3	2
Nets	2	4	2	3
Nugg	9	7	5	3
Pace	1	2	1	1
Peli	8	7	3	3
Pist	3	1	2	1
Rapt	8	3	4	1
Rock	5	6	2	0
Seve	4	0	2	0
Spur	8	5	5	2
Suns	10	4	5	3
Thun	1	11	1	3
Timb	0	7	0	2
Trai	8	3	4	2
Warr	3	0	1	0
Wiza	1	4	1	3
Grand Total	131	107	73	46

**pip2** · 12-08-14, 10:16 PM

The Suns are awesome reads for queries, the Clippers are awesome reads for queries, so together they should be super-awesome reads for queries. But I just can't bring myself bet against the Clippers tonight...

**Consigliere** · 12-08-14, 10:25 PM

Originally posted by pip2

The Suns are awesome reads for queries, the Clippers are awesome reads for queries, so together they should be super-awesome reads for queries. But I just can't bring myself bet against the Clippers tonight...

Haha yes I noticed that as well. It could all be very well meaningless....I personally did not like the Suns pick either but played it. The trends have been strong, although slipped recently, and it met all my personal criteria to plays. I've learned long ago many picks that I hate are the right play. The chart above highlights to me that injuries more than likely do a play a factor in situational betting when they are to significant players (Thunder), the super hyped teams are also not great situational plays (Cavs) and some of the really ugly teams provide a large portion of the value (Sixers, Pistons, Celtics, Hornets) and then there are the atrocious (Timberwolves) which is really just a function of a bad time in a brutal conference with a fairly bad injury situation. I think it starts to shape where some of the limitations are in situational betting...to optimize results the teams do need to be taken into account in the context of the how the market sees them and some real life practical things like injuries.

**Consigliere** · 12-08-14, 10:30 PM

BTW has any been playing the totals at all or tracking them? I gave up on them a while ago to focus on ATS. Anyone been successful with additional filtering? There has to be value in there somewhere...Mako how did you make out by taking out all trends where both situations/teams weren't considered?

**Consigliere** · 12-08-14, 10:33 PM

Last one for me tonight...the updated data split looking at CUSUM viability...LT, MT, ST etc. ST continues to sputter along at 50-50 and MT and LT continue to push out units.


Row Labels	Sum of Win	Sum of Loose	Sum of Unique wins	Sum of Unique Losses
LT	80	60	49	28
MT	17	11	7	1
ST	32	33	16	16
0	2	1	1	0
LT	0	2	0	1
Grand Total	131	107	73	46

**Consigliere** · 12-08-14, 10:43 PM

Originally posted by pip2

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

If there is still time:

12/8/14 5:50pm Reduced Basketball 511 Utah Jazz +5½ -109* vs Sacramento Kings

SDQL:

playoffs=0 and season > 2000 and tS(W)-(tS(W)/1.3) < oS(W) and p:TPM*3/p

oints + p

oints in the paint/p

oints > .76

SDQL: English

play the team that is fairly close to its opponent in winning percentage and that scored more than 3/4 of its points in the previous game in the paint and beyond the arc.

Like the logic in the back end of this query. Along the lines of the mid-range one I think you posted last week. Might try playing around with this to see if there are ways to push this above the 55% threshold that make sense.

**pip2** · 12-08-14, 11:09 PM

Originally posted by Consigliere

Like the logic in the back end of this query. Along the lines of the mid-range one I think you posted last week. Might try playing around with this to see if there are ways to push this above the 55% threshold that make sense.

That's the core query, as I recall, so I think there should be lots of sample size to give you some room to try different things.

**pip2** · 12-08-14, 11:13 PM

Originally posted by Consigliere

Haha yes I noticed that as well. It could all be very well meaningless....I personally did not like the Suns pick either but played it. The trends have been strong, although slipped recently, and it met all my personal criteria to plays. I've learned long ago many picks that I hate are the right play. The chart above highlights to me that injuries more than likely do a play a factor in situational betting when they are to significant players (Thunder), the super hyped teams are also not great situational plays (Cavs) and some of the really ugly teams provide a large portion of the value (Sixers, Pistons, Celtics, Hornets) and then there are the atrocious (Timberwolves) which is really just a function of a bad time in a brutal conference with a fairly bad injury situation. I think it starts to shape where some of the limitations are in situational betting...to optimize results the teams do need to be taken into account in the context of the how the market sees them and some real life practical things like injuries.

I guess our only tool for querying in regards to injuries is the minutes parameter? I remember reading they only keep statistics for like 5 players per NBA team. I wonder if it would be useful to just add the minutes of playing time of those players together, or average them or something, and use the sum/average in comparison to the sums/averages of other teams to see if any pattern emerges in terms of ATS or totals...

**Consigliere** · 12-08-14, 11:57 PM

Originally posted by pip2

I guess our only tool for querying in regards to injuries is the minutes parameter? I remember reading they only keep statistics for like 5 players per NBA team. I wonder if it would be useful to just add the minutes of playing time of those players together, or average them or something, and use the sum/average in comparison to the sums/averages of other teams to see if any pattern emerges in terms of ATS or totals...

The take away I had was more around long term injuries. Twolves and thunder both poor performance and both big long term injuries to major players on their teams with little replacement value. Just being cautious about these situations. Not necessarily adding filters.

**pip2** · 12-09-14, 12:14 AM

Originally posted by Consigliere

The take away I had was more around long term injuries. Twolves and thunder both poor performance and both big long term injuries to major players on their teams with little replacement value. Just being cautious about these situations. Not necessarily adding filters.

I'm just thinking that if they pick out 5 players for the year, it would probably be the players that start or that they think are the best players. Then, if any of those players have long term injuries, the totals of the five players' minutes start to drop, while teams without injuries to their major players would retain high cumulative minute totals for their sets of 5 players, and maybe that could be correlated to various outcomes...

**Cutler'sThumb** · 12-09-14, 01:29 AM

Originally posted by Consigliere

BTW has any been playing the totals at all or tracking them? I gave up on them a while ago to focus on ATS. Anyone been successful with additional filtering? There has to be value in there somewhere...Mako how did you make out by taking out all trends where both situations/teams weren't considered?

Totals have still been pretty rough. 8-13 since December 1, if my count is correct. Seems like they would get better at some point, as the trends seem fairly solid. Who knows what's going on there.

**dmitean** · 12-09-14, 06:43 AM

Originally posted by dmitean

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12-8-14 - 4:35p CT

Play: Wizards -9 +106

SDQL: P:L and o:team=po:team and team=opo:team and P:AF and playoffs = 0

English: Play the team that lost as a road favorite and now plays at home, in a spot, where two teams play each other B2B.

Wizards led by 23 points in the third quarter, by 16 points in the start of the fourth, but in the end, only luck prevented them from losing the game alltogether...
Bet lost...

**JMon** · 12-09-14, 07:44 AM

NBA SDQL "Best Bet" 2014-15

Overall Group Record - 62-55-1 52.9% (+3.59) (max wagered -to win 1 unit)

Yesterday's recap 3-4 (-1.24)

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon - 11-10 (+.90)

2. pip2 - 11-10 (+.38)

3. nash13 - 6-4 (+1.82)

4. Ronald S. - 9-9 (-.60)

5. hyahya - 6-4 (+1.55)

6. Mako-SBR - 8-10 (-3.00)

7. dmitean - 0-1 (-1.00)

8. Consigliere - 8-3-1 (+4.84)

9. GolfAddict - 3-4 (-1.30)

10. open spot

**dmitean** · 12-09-14, 10:18 AM

Updated the file with today's queries. Can't say that too many gems there imho...

**dmitean** · 12-09-14, 10:47 AM

site=home and -4<=t:line<0 and 20041001<=date and WP>70 and o:WP>70 and month in [12 , 1 , 2 , 3] and playoffs=0
SU:18-21 (-0.46, 46.2%)ATS:14-25-0 (-3.19, 35.9%) avg line: -2.7O/U:14-25-0 (-3.17, 35.9%) avg total: 198.5

Small sample size, but it's worth monitoring and keep in mind. I think that maybe playing dog SU here is more profitable than ATS.

**dmitean** · 12-09-14, 02:10 PM

Question, can I check how teams are doing after a game that when to overtime?

**JMon** · 12-09-14, 02:38 PM

Originally posted by dmitean

Question, can I check how teams are doing after a game that when to overtime?

p

vertime=1

**dmitean** · 12-09-14, 02:39 PM

very simple

**dmitean** · 12-09-14, 02:52 PM

But that, as I can understand, shows me only games that came after a game with one overtime.
But what if it had 2 or 3?

**dmitean** · 12-09-14, 02:53 PM

Nevermind. Figured that out all by myself

**dmitean** · 12-09-14, 02:58 PM

It goes in waves for some reason, but the results are pretty clear:
HF and p

vertime=1 and rest=0
SU:44-41 (2.48, 51.8%)ATS:32-52-1 (-2.88, 38.1%) avg line: -5.4O/U:34-50-1 (0.09, 40.5%) avg total: 195.3

If the other team, had at least one day's rest, the result are much clearer:
HF and p

vertime=1 and rest=0 and o:rest>0
SU:15-22 (0.89, 40.5%)ATS:11-26-0 (-4.19, 29.7%) avg line: -5.1O/U:17-20-0 (1.92, 45.9%) avg total: 198.1

**hyahya** · 12-09-14, 03:17 PM

NBA SDQL 'Best Bet' 2014-15

12-9-14 - 12:15p PST

Play: TOR/CLE under 206 (-110)

2007<=season and tS(ou margin, N=5)>=42 and WP>=75 and 75>=o:WP>=60 and rest<4 and o:rest<2

Play the under in a game with two very good teams where one team has been substantially going over the total in their prior 5 games.

**hyahya** · 12-09-14, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by dmitean

It goes in waves for some reason, but the results are pretty clear:
HF and p

vertime=1 and rest=0
SU:44-41 (2.48, 51.8%)ATS:32-52-1 (-2.88, 38.1%) avg line: -5.4O/U:34-50-1 (0.09, 40.5%) avg total: 195.3

If the other team, had at least one day's rest, the result are much clearer:
HF and p

vertime=1 and rest=0 and o:rest>0
SU:15-22 (0.89, 40.5%)ATS:11-26-0 (-4.19, 29.7%) avg line: -5.1O/U:17-20-0 (1.92, 45.9%) avg total: 198.1

If you add p:AL to each query the ATS bias fades but the under bias remains (obviously smaller sample size).

**Ronald S.** · 12-09-14, 04:22 PM

No best bet for me today. Switched off the winning one yesterday