NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

**JMon** · 11-12-14, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by SportsMind

I'm in if you have me :-)

you're in. One entry left.

**JMon** · 11-12-14, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by nash13

Attention Denver moved from Dog to Fav.

big move, glad I waited.

**GolfAddict** · 11-12-14, 03:51 PM

I think Jazz and Knicks deserve a look. The system im using is different than what you guys use I am interested to see the result of your system on those games

**Consigliere** · 11-12-14, 04:04 PM

Here's something interesting I thought of for an angle when I was watching some games last night (I find the more games I watch the more angles I think of...I've started taking notes while I watch for SDQL mining)....a team that has put themselves in a big hole a number of times at almost ANY point during the last few games except for the 1Q (too variable) but is handicapped to be the better team at a road game, actually is the better team and will cover the points. The rest for both teams needs to be in the "normal" range, the total range also needs to be "normal" with a slight bias to a bit slower pace, and the line can't be too big, less than 5.........for some reason can't post the SDQL (stupid internet explorer)...will have to wait till I get home or check out the google doc...150 picks and 67% win rate

**Mako-SBR** · 11-12-14, 04:19 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-12-14 - 6:05PM PST

Play: Trail Blazers +3, Nuggets (-110)

SDQL:
AD and rest=0 and o:rest>0 and (p

or p:FL or p:HFW) and line<4 and 5<=game number<=21 and season>=2013

SDQL: English

Early in the season, take the away dog with no rest going up against a rested opponent so long as the line is tight. Added a few previous modifiers just to tighten the numbers but they are optional as the scenario is above 70% since 2010 without them. This query was just featured in the thread a week ago for the first time I believe, I'm horrible with originators, sorry about that, but it does show that new scenarios are popping up all the time and the well is deep! Great job all.

**nash13** · 11-12-14, 04:23 PM

Originally posted by Consigliere

Here's something interesting I thought of for an angle when I was watching some games last night (I find the more games I watch the more angles I think of...I've started taking notes while I watch for SDQL mining)....a team that has put themselves in a big hole a number of times at almost ANY point during the last few games except for the 1Q (too variable) but is handicapped to be the better team at a road game, actually is the better team and will cover the points. The rest for both teams needs to be in the "normal" range, the total range also needs to be "normal" with a slight bias to a bit slower pace, and the line can't be too big, less than 5.........for some reason can't post the SDQL (stupid internet explorer)...will have to wait till I get home or check out the google doc...150 picks and 67% win rate

I really like your mindset here, most of my own queries are combined to logic. There must be a reason for taking that step.
If only we could use a parameter like Strength of Schedule. I think there is a real value in there.

**Consigliere** · 11-12-14, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by nash13

I really like your mindset here, most of my own queries are combined to logic. There must be a reason for taking that step.
If only we could use a parameter like Strength of Schedule. I think there is a real value in there.

Just figuring out how to put the power of the summation together...I think that might be one of the most powerful tools in SDQL because you can put filters in but the outcome doesn't have to happen every time for it to flag the matchup, just the # of times you specify in the last N games...very cool stuff.

**Mako-SBR** · 11-12-14, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by Consigliere

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-12-14 - 11:05PM PST

Play: Pistons+7, Wizards (-120)

SDQL:
(tA(points@ season) -3) > tA(points, N=3) and (oA(points@season) + 3) < oA(points, N=3) and rest = 3 and o:rest > 0 and playoffs = 0 and (site = home or (site = away and p:site = home))
SDQL: English

Really like this one, good performer both recently (last 3 seasons) and longer term (6+ seasons). Nice Consig.

**JMon** · 11-12-14, 04:34 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-12-14 - 3:30PM CT

Play: Orlando ov 193.5 (-110)

SDQL:
198.5>=total>=190 and p:AL and p:division=opo:division and WP<=25 and o:WP<50 and o:rest<2

SDQL: English Play over a total of 190 to 198.5 with a team of a division road loss; bad team of 25% or less win % vs a team on less than 2 days rest and has not won more than 50% of their games.

**JMon** · 11-12-14, 04:43 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-12-14 - Plays

So far....

nash13 - PORT OV 209 (1.04 to win 1)

pip2 - NO -10.5 (1.05 to win 1)

hyahya - PORT OV 209 (1.1 to win 1)

Consigliere - DET +7 (1.2 to win 1)

Mako-SBR - PORT +3 (1.1 to win 1)

JMon - ORL OV 193.5 (1.1 to win 1)

**FlyinAir** · 11-12-14, 04:47 PM

Wow, so many on Portland/Denver, minus well join the party.

11-12-14, TOB: 4:46pmCT (TOB timestamped on my Sbrforumspreadsheet)
<o

Play: Portland +3
SDQL: WP<25 and P:L and p: points>99.5 and rest>1.5and op: points>101 and total > 195

We’re playing AGAINST an bottom of the leauge team who losttheir last game vs this opp (<st1

Portland) </st1
but scored 99.5 points or more in their previous game, while coming off morethan a day &a half of rest, with their oppoent scoring more than 101 pointsin their previous game , and the total is over 195 </o

**FortySix** · 11-12-14, 05:19 PM

Oh man, can I take the last entry?

**Mako-SBR** · 11-12-14, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by FlyinAir

Something to take a look at for Wednesday

F and p:AL and p:margin<=-6.5 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-7.5 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006 and line < -9.5

This one was a lot of fun to play with and mine, nice job Flyin.

F and p:AL and WP>=o:WP and -14<=line<=-10 and total>=188 and division!=o:division and (op:HD or op:AW) and season>=2006

SU:72-5 (15.35, 93.5%)
ATS:56-20-1 (3.70, 73.7%) avg line: -11.6
O/U:21-53-3 (-6.25, 28.4%) avg total: 201.3

**FortySix** · 11-12-14, 05:32 PM

If I can, this is my entry

Play the over in Jazz @ Hawks. Nice and simple. Both teams lacking offense in their last game.

t:team=Hawks and total>196 and p

oints<100 and op

oints<90

**Consigliere** · 11-12-14, 05:49 PM

Hey guys, check out the spreadsheet. The Discussions/Chat tab. I posted a couple CUSUM graphs of a couple of the nba trends that I think show some of the power of that statistical charting tool. I did a little note about them as well. I am a process and research engineer by trade so I know a bit about stats...not a phD by any means though. I think some discussion if and/or how they might be useful would be good. Unfortunately I have IE on the computer will all my data so I can't post much of anything on here. The spreadsheet is a good tool though Nash...thanks! There is a chat box and you can see when others are online...we should try and use that to bounce ideas around...even live chat during games we are watching to post ideas. Check out the spreadsheet...let me know if its useful and I can get to work.

**JMon** · 11-12-14, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by FortySix

If I can, this is my entry

Play the over in Jazz @ Hawks. Nice and simple. Both teams lacking offense in their last game.

t:team=Hawks and total>196 and p

oints<100 and op

oints<90

yes, you can have the last spot. Please read post 1613 on how to make an official best bet post.

**JMon** · 11-12-14, 06:03 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

Official Entries: Max 10 of 10:

1. JMon
2. pip2
3. nash13
4. Ronald S.
5. hyahya
6. Mako-SBR
7. FlyinAir
8. Consigliere
9. Sports Mind
10. 46

BOL fellas may we all succeed

**hyahya** · 11-12-14, 06:03 PM

Conversation here's been great and got my creative juices flowing:

tA(points)>101 and p:TPA>25 and p:TPP<30 and season>2007 and p:FTA<25 and 210>total>200 and p:L

Good offensive team that got burned the previous game by shooting a low 3pt % on a high volume of 3s and lacked aggressiveness (low FTA) tend to continue to struggle offensively the next game. Goes to 1-8 on the total when rest=0.

**JMon** · 11-12-14, 06:05 PM

FlyinAir.. odds need to be posted for this play to count.

[QUOTE=FlyinAir;22978717]Wow, so many on Portland/Denver, minus well join the party.

11-12-14, TOB: 4:46pmCT (TOB timestamped on my Sbrforumspreadsheet)
<o

Play: Portland +3
SDQL: WP<25 and P:L and p: points>99.5 and rest>1.5and op: points>101 and total > 195

We’re playing AGAINST an bottom of the leauge team who losttheir last game vs this opp (<st1

Portland) </st1
but scored 99.5 points or more in their previous game, while coming off morethan a day &a half of rest, with their oppoent scoring more than 101 pointsin their previous game , and the total is over 195

</o

**Ronald S.** · 11-12-14, 06:09 PM

11/12 NBA SDQL Best Bet

Well I guess I'll join the party with Portland lol

6:00PM 713 Portland +3 -105 (@ Denver)

AD and rest = 0 and o:rest >= 2 and month = 11 and line < 4
SU: 35-25 (0.12, 58.3%)
ATS: 42-18-0 (2.66, 70.0%) avg line: 2.5
O/U: 27-33-0 (-2.08, 45.0%) avg total: 193.4

AD and rest = 0 and p:rest = 1 and pp:rest = 0 and month = 11 and line < 4
SU: 19-14 (0.09, 57.6%)
ATS: 21-10-2 (2.53, 67.7%) avg line: 2.4
O/U: 18-13-2 (2.59, 58.1%) avg total: 192.8

A slight variation on my 1st trend that b2b games and bunched games in general (4 games in 5 days in this case) aren't as taxing to a team in November. When books set the line, rest is one of the factors they use. This trend shows that the books put more weight to playing on a b2b in November than they should, at least for short dogs on the road. It is also slightly stronger than the original trend which was o:rest >= 1. There are some dynamics that may go against this such as the elevation factor and the line movement against it but I feel confident enough that Portland can get the win against a Nuggets team that is just plain bad this year. The 3 points is icing on the cake!

**hyahya** · 11-12-14, 06:12 PM

Here's one detailing the next game after a bad FT shooting night for a good FT shooting team on high volume:

tA(FTP)>75 and p:FTP<65 and p:FTA>25 and season>2007 and 190 < total < 200<total<200< html=""></total<200<>

**JMon** · 11-12-14, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by hyahya

Conversation here's been great and got my creative juices flowing:

tA(points)>101 and p:TPA>25 and p:TPP<30 and season>2007 and p:FTA<25 and 210>total>200 and p:L

Good offensive team that got burned the previous game by shooting a low 3pt % on a high volume of 3s and lacked aggressiveness (low FTA) tend to continue to struggle offensively the next game. Goes to 1-8 on the total when rest=0.

nice hyahya

**JMon** · 11-12-14, 06:18 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-12-14 - Plays

So far....

nash13 - PORT OV 209 (1.04 to win 1)

pip2 - NO -10.5 (1.05 to win 1)

hyahya - PORT OV 209 (1.1 to win 1)

Consigliere - DET +7 (1.2 to win 1)

Mako-SBR - PORT +3 (1.1 to win 1)

JMon - ORL OV 193.5 (1.1 to win 1)

Ronald S. - PORT +3 (1.05 to win 1)

Please let me know of errors.

**Mako-SBR** · 11-12-14, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by hyahya

Conversation here's been great and got my creative juices flowing:

tA(points)>101 and p:TPA>25 and p:TPP<30 and season>2007 and p:FTA<25 and 210>total>200 and p:L

Good offensive team that got burned the previous game by shooting a low 3pt % on a high volume of 3s and lacked aggressiveness (low FTA) tend to continue to struggle offensively the next game. Goes to 1-8 on the total when rest=0.

Originally posted by JMon

nice hyahya

Very nice, tailing.

**hyahya** · 11-12-14, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

Very nice, tailing.

Add the fact that the game is in unfamiliar surroundings for both teams and it becomes an even more compelling play IMO.

**Consigliere** · 11-12-14, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by hyahya

Add the fact that the game is in unfamiliar surroundings for both teams and it becomes an even more compelling play IMO.

Anyone concerned the line has gone up 6 pts?

**JMon** · 11-12-14, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by hyahya

Add the fact that the game is in unfamiliar surroundings for both teams and it becomes an even more compelling play IMO.

add rest<2

**hyahya** · 11-12-14, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by Consigliere

Anyone concerned the line has gone up 6 pts?

A little considering a move that large is probably a "sharp" or "syndicate" move. Would be nice to know what previous totals for games in Mexico look like given I vaguely remember there was an AC problem there for at least one of the games which may have caused the defense to sag (not sure if that problem is chronic though).

**FlyinAir** · 11-12-14, 06:50 PM

FlyinAir.. odds need to be posted for this play to count.

Portland +3@ -110

**Ronald S.** · 11-12-14, 06:52 PM

Originally posted by Consigliere

Anyone concerned the line has gone up 6 pts?

Books may have set the total low on purpose. So far, every Houston game has gone Under and last 2 by a good amount. I think they underestimate Houston's defense this year! May wait to see if it goes higher but Under 205.5 looks good now especially looking at hyahya's trend

**hyahya** · 11-12-14, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by JMon

add rest<2

Damn, that's a ridiculous run!

**JMon** · 11-12-14, 07:13 PM

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-12-14 - Plays

So far....

nash13 - PORT OV 209 (1.04 to win 1)

pip2 - NO -10.5 (1.05 to win 1)

hyahya - PORT OV 209 (1.1 to win 1)

Consigliere - DET +7 (1.2 to win 1)

Mako-SBR - PORT +3 (1.1 to win 1)

JMon - ORL OV 193.5 (1.1 to win 1)

Ronald S. - PORT +3 (1.05 to win 1)

FlyinAir - PORT +3 (1.1 to win 1)

Please let me know of errors.

**nash13** · 11-12-14, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by Consigliere

Hey guys, check out the spreadsheet. The Discussions/Chat tab. I posted a couple CUSUM graphs of a couple of the nba trends that I think show some of the power of that statistical charting tool. I did a little note about them as well. I am a process and research engineer by trade so I know a bit about stats...not a phD by any means though. I think some discussion if and/or how they might be useful would be good. Unfortunately I have IE on the computer will all my data so I can't post much of anything on here. The spreadsheet is a good tool though Nash...thanks! There is a chat box and you can see when others are online...we should try and use that to bounce ideas around...even live chat during games we are watching to post ideas. Check out the spreadsheet...let me know if its useful and I can get to work.

Ha nice to see a colleague, I am a statistician too, but not quite an excel guy

I suggested to do an index of recent success, but looking at the graphs makes much more sense. I never used them before, but it is nice to have a tool beside the raw numbers.

**Consigliere** · 11-12-14, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

Really like this one, good performer both recently (last 3 seasons) and longer term (6+ seasons). Nice Consig.

get money!

**hyahya** · 11-12-14, 11:20 PM

Consigliere, those graphs are an awesome tool to discern between long term and short term trends. Many thanks to you and all who have put in hard labor on the spreadsheet.

I would argue that having time demarcations in the graph would be helpful as you'd be able to gauge frequency of occurrence in a given time span from where we may be able to drill down to the variable level. For example, if the occurrence of teams FTA<21 rises, then maybe we can deduce a slight shift in the way games are called. Of course, this is simply icing and would depend on time required.