NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[nash13]

im the kwn email, sent a request a couple days ago, can i get access nash?

please write me a pm, i must lost your mail somewhere .

[nash13]

Here is something interesting:

55-5 (13.87, 91.7%) 39-20-1 (3.70, 66.1%) avg line: -10.2 28-30-2 (-1.59, 48.3%) avg total: 196.8

So ok, it looks like a decent play on the Mavs to cover tonight at home against the Kings. But there's more:

24-4 (13.57, 85.7%) 15-12-1 (3.18, 55.6%) avg line: -10.4 28-0-0 (11.16, 100.0%) avg total: 196.9

29-1 (13.60, 96.7%) 22-8-0 (3.50, 73.3%) avg line: -10.1 0-30-0 (-13.60, 0.0%) avg total: 196.9

Look at the ATS record when it goes Under the total! I know it's still a small sample size but looks like correlation to me!

And here it is with line < -5

79-11 (12.06, 87.8%) 56-31-3 (2.68, 64.4%) avg line: -9.4 38-47-5 (-2.23, 44.7%) avg total: 197.6

32-6 (11.45, 84.2%) 20-16-2 (1.84, 55.6%) avg line: -9.6 38-0-0 (11.34, 100.0%) avg total: 197.4

42-5 (11.98, 89.4%) 32-14-1 (2.63, 69.6%) avg line: -9.4 0-47-0 (-13.44, 0.0%) avg total: 198.2

Again, some correlation between the ATS win and the Under!

Parlay of Dallas with the Under is definitely looking juicy here... Should I also parlay Kings with the Over?

The thing here is if it is valuable to correlate these outcomes. Will it hit more than 25% of the time?
Yes? Then do it.

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

Official Entries: Max 6 of 10: 4 pending....first come

JMon
pip2
nash13
Ronald S.
hyahya
Mako-SBR


I will track results until the end of regular season- no playoffs. Rules shall be followed, otherwise bet will not be counted- mainly for ease of tracking. Grading method will be units, where the bettor will be risking to win one. Overall, as well as individual will be tracked.

1. A Best Bet is not required daily; if you don't have one - don't post it!
2. Provide date and time of bet
3. Provide team of the bet
4. Provide current odds of the bet
5. Provide SDQL of the bet
6. Provide English translation of SDQL
7. 2-6 of the above shall be listed for a Best Bet to be tracked; otherwise it will not- no questions asked.

Example:

11-11-14 - 4:58 CT

Play: Spurs -5.5 (-110)

SDQL:

tA(ooints) >= 102 and oA(ooints) >= 102 and points >= 100 and ppoints >= 100 and pppoints >= 100 and 2009<=season and -1 >= line >= -3 and conference = Western

SDQL: English

Since 2009, play a Western Conference team where the line is -1 to -3 - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (>=102 PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games

[nash13]

A question regarding z-scores: i guess it works only on assumed even odds. Because when we use the z score for SU plays, it is misleading.
One of the best queries from bases in MLB is 900-1030, but has 200 units profit. Thats good value. But score is negative. So i would be cautious to use z score for straight up bets or ones where the odds are not around 2.

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

officially starts tomorrow!!! bol fella miners!

[FortySix]

A question away from SDQL, are you fellas finding this NBA season really had to cap? Some of these results are just crazy

[nash13]

A table is set up for NBA Bets of the day. GL everyone.

[FlyinAir]

Wait jmon can I jump in

[JMon]

Wait jmon can I jump in

You are in FlyinAir, just follow the rules listed above.

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

Official Entries: Max 7 of 10: 3 pending....first come

JMon
pip2
nash13
Ronald S.
hyahya
Mako-SBR
FlyinAir

[FlyinAir]

Sweet!

Here are my over night notes

•WP<30 and p:A and A and rest=0 and p:M1>7.5 and season > 2006
A bottom of the league team on the 2nd game of a B2B w/ 0 rest, dominating the 1st Q in their previous game by 8+pts.

•Nothing looks good for the Thunder all the sudden. 2-9 last 11 when p:AL and AD.
And this total is way too high in Boston. A ten point difference from last night vs Milw

•Top find for Lakers/No Over 10-0 L10 - Lakers 100+pts last 5 games (Adjust date of course)
team=Lakers and A and total>200.5 and total<215.0 and season>=2013

•I think Phx deserves five here

[pip2]

Only finding three query options for today, really only two:

from mako showing sac and cha cover vs dal and por -- ATS: 202-137-9 (1.48, 59.6%)
A and p:AFL and 1<= rest<=2 and season>=2005

From Eser Orhan (same as mako's) showing sac and cha cover vs dal and por -- ATS:154-94-4 (2.03, 62.1%)
A and p:AFL and p:line>=-4 and season>2007 154-94-4 (2.03, 62.1%)

from jmon -- okc, sac, and cha cover vs mil and dal and por -- ATS:14-36-0 (-5.22, 28.0%)
H and tA(FTA)<=21 and month=11 and F and -8.5<=line<=-3 and 2008<=season and rest<4 and o:rest<3 and losses>0 and o:wins<7 and o:losses<9

Results:
Mako's query split, with cha covering and sac biting the dust: 1-1

Eser's query split the same way: 1-1

Jmon's query added an extra loss, with okc losing ats to go along with sac, added to the ats win by cha: 1-2

I bet sac and cha for a 1-1 day

[Ronald S.]

Well Raptors and the Under completely whiffed (sorry consig) but got a nice hit on the dallas/under parlay and ended up playing the spurs as felt 8.5 was too much at the time whether they rested players or not. Needed that after yesterday's road dogs on b2b played like it wasn't November

[Ronald S.]

You are in FlyinAir, just follow the rules listed above.

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

Official Entries: Max 7 of 10: 3 pending....first come

JMon
pip2
nash13
Ronald S.
hyahya
Mako-SBR
FlyinAir

Should be fun!

[FlyinAir]

You are in FlyinAir, just follow the rules listed above.

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15
Flyinair

Just tell me when and i'll be the first to post up

[FlyinAir]

Something to take a look at for Wednesday

F and p:AL and p:margin<=-6.5 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-7.5 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006 and line < -9.5

[nash13]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-12-14 - 5:05 CT

Play: Trail Blazers@Nuggets Over 209 (-104)

SDQL:
p:defensive rebounds + poffensive rebounds > 52 and H and p:fouls <26 and season > 2011

SDQL: English

Since 2011, play the Over on a game of the Home Team when their combined rebounds on their defensive side were above 52 and they fouled less then 26 times in their past game. This is an indicator that their game before ended in low scoring. Just take a look at the query for the game they played before: defensive rebounds + poffensive rebounds > 52 and fouls <26 and season > 2011 (107-206 on Totals).

[nash13]

Something to take a look at for Wednesday

F and p:AL and p:margin<=-6.5 and WP>=o:WP and line<=-7.5 and total>=187 and total<=212 and season>=2006 and line < -9.5

there is one "line" too much in the code line<=7.5 is useless when line < -9.5 comes afterwards, but apart from that good query.

[moshi]

Doesn't support the over, but this query (previously posted in thread) shows Portland ATS vs Nuggets:

HD and line<=10 and p:AL and po:blocks>=10 and rest<4 and season>=2011

SU: 7-27 (-10.47, 20.6%)
ATS: 9-24-1 (-5.69, 27.3%) avg line: 4.8
O/U: 17-17-0 (3.10, 50.0%) avg total: 195.9

Great results and doesn't look like its had a losing season.

My only concern is that recent results are less than stellar with a short line (line<=3 and season>=2011):

SU: 4-8 (-4.92, 33.3%)
ATS: 5-6-1 (-2.50, 45.5%) avg line: 2.4
O/U: 7-5-0 (6.62, 58.3%) avg total: 195.6

This could very well be an easy Portland win though.

[dmitean]

I think that you shouldn't look at trends, when it comes to Thunder, Indiana and Denver.
The situation is too unique.

Thunder and Pacers are just too damn injured and all the time have players coming in and out. On top of that, both are teams that view themselves as top teams and due to injuries, find themselves in the very bottom.

You can't apply regular trends on them.

As for Denver, something fishy there. I think they rebel against the coach and try to force him out of the club. No way to trend that...

Maybe we can add Cleveland to the mix - since it's a team of giants, that needs to gel and mostly depends on how they will get up in the morning.

[pip2]

Today's plate:

det and ut cover vs wsh and atl -- From J R ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%) ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%)
AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak < 0 and 0 < o:ats streak < 3

det covers vs wsh From PunterBoss ATS:166-107-6 (1.77, 60.8%)
AD and WP < 50 and o:WP > 50 and ats streak < 0 and o:ats streak > 0 and playoffs = 0 and season >= 2003 and on:H and 8 <= game number <= 63

okc and orl cover vs bos and ny --- from jmon sitpost #1345 ATS:14-36-0 (-5.22, 28.0%)
H and tA(FTA) <= 21 and month=11 and F and -8.5 <= line <= -3 and 2008 <= season and rest < 4 and o:rest < 3 and losses > 0 and o:wins < 7 and o:losses < 9

por covers vs den -- from jmon sitpost#1275 ATS: 18-45-3 (-3.58, 28.6%)
HD and line <= 10 and p:AL and po:blocks >= 10 and rest < 4 and 2007 < season

no covers vs lal -- From me in sitpost #1265 ATS:140-212-7 (-1.75, 39.8%)
pu margin > 10 and rest < 1 and P:L and season > 2008

[pip2]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-12-14 - 7:45 PST

Play: NO ATS vs LAL -10.5 at -105

SDQL:
pu margin>10 and rest <1 and P:L and season>2008

SDQL: English

Last night a team played a relatively high-paced game and now comes into town slightly leg-tired going against a team that has previously figured out the team's vulnerabilities and demonstrated the ability to exploit them. This isn't as effective at under 10 games into the season, but still hits 57%.

[Consigliere]

A question regarding z-scores: i guess it works only on assumed even odds. Because when we use the z score for SU plays, it is misleading.
One of the best queries from bases in MLB is 900-1030, but has 200 units profit. Thats good value. But score is negative. So i would be cautious to use z score for straight up bets or ones where the odds are not around 2.

Negative Z scores are just a function of the arithmetic. I will go in and adjust for absolute value, because -3 is as good as +3.

[Consigliere]

I think that you shouldn't look at trends, when it comes to Thunder, Indiana and Denver.
The situation is too unique.

Thunder and Pacers are just too damn injured and all the time have players coming in and out. On top of that, both are teams that view themselves as top teams and due to injuries, find themselves in the very bottom.

You can't apply regular trends on them.

As for Denver, something fishy there. I think they rebel against the coach and try to force him out of the club. No way to trend that...

Maybe we can add Cleveland to the mix - since it's a team of giants, that needs to gel and mostly depends on how they will get up in the morning.

I generally agree with this sentiment for the early season this year. Give it a few weeks and I think the situational capping will apply again as the linesmakers sort out how to price them properly.

[Consigliere]

You are in FlyinAir, just follow the rules listed above.

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

Official Entries: Max 7 of 10: 3 pending....first come

JMon
pip2
nash13
Ronald S.
hyahya
Mako-SBR
FlyinAir

I'm in.

[JMon]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-12-14 - Plays

So far....

nash13

PORT OV 209 (1.04 to win 1)

pip2

NO -10.5 (1.05 to win 1)

[JMon]

I'm in.

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

Official Entries: Max 8 of 10: 2 pending....first come

1. JMon
2. pip2
3. nash13
4. Ronald S.
5. hyahya
6. Mako-SBR
7. FlyinAir
8. Consigliere

[hyahya]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-12-14 - Plays

So far....

nash13

PORT OV 209 (1.04 to win 1)

pip2

NO -10.5 (1.05 to win 1)

Just checking, but I'm assuming we're allowed to choose the same play as another poster, correct? If so, I definitely like the play Nash posted as the query makes sense and I like to play the over in games where a team is going into Denver on a back2back.

[emceeaye]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

11-12-14 - 5:05 CT

Play: Trail Blazers@Nuggets Over 209 (-104)

SDQL:
p:defensive rebounds + poffensive rebounds > 52 and H and p:fouls <26 and season > 2011

SDQL: English

Since 2011, play the Over on a game of the Home Team when their combined rebounds on their defensive side were above 52 and they fouled less then 26 times in their past game. This is an indicator that their game before ended in low scoring. Just take a look at the query for the game they played before: defensive rebounds + poffensive rebounds > 52 and fouls <26 and season > 2011 (107-206 on Totals).

Thanks for the query and rationale.

Here's a version of it tweaked a bit that points to Nuggets su:

p:defensive rebounds + poffensive rebounds >= 52 and HF and p:fouls <30 and (day=Wednesday) and o:rest=0 and rest>=1

[JMon]

Just checking, but I'm assuming we're allowed to choose the same play as another poster, correct? If so, I definitely like the play Nash posted as the query makes sense and I like to play the over in games where a team is going into Denver on a back2back.

Sure can! Just post it accordingly for record.

[hyahya]

Best Bet:

Play: Trail Blazers@Nuggets Over 209 (-110)

SDQL:
p:defensive rebounds + poffensive rebounds > 52 and H and p:fouls <26 and season > 2011

I actually got it at 208.5 earlier but line at 209 now so 209 for the record.

[Consigliere]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15


11-12-14 - 11:05PM PST


Play: Pistons+7, Wizards (-120)


SDQL:
(tA(points@ season) -3) > tA(points, N=3) and (oA(points@season) + 3) < oA(points, N=3) and rest = 3 and o:rest > 0 and playoffs = 0 and (site = home or (site = away and p:site = home))
SDQL: English


A home team or away team on the first road game underperforming their last 3 games against their season average scoring when they have had a 3 day break playing against a team overperforming their last 3 games compared to their season average and not on a back to back will not cover the spread

[Consigliere]

11-11-14 - 4:58 CT

Play: Spurs -5.5 (-110)

SDQL:

tA(ooints) >= 102 and oA(ooints) >= 102 and points >= 100 and ppoints >= 100 and pppoints >= 100 and 2009<=season and -1 >= line >= -3 and conference = Western

SDQL: English

Since 2009, play a Western Conference team where the line is -1 to -3 - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (>=102 PPG), after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games

Jmon...the Spurs didn't fit into the line filter here....what was the rationale behind the Spurs? Fit the other parameters and you felt the line still had value? I took out the line filter and this game still didn't show up??

[SportsMind]

NBA SDQL 'BEST BET' 2014-15

Official Entries: Max 8 of 10: 2 pending....first come

1. JMon
2. pip2
3. nash13
4. Ronald S.
5. hyahya
6. Mako-SBR
7. FlyinAir
8. Consigliere

I'm in if you have me :-)

[nash13]

Today's plate:

det and ut cover vs wsh and atl -- From J R ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%) ATS: 583-453-21 (1.37, 56.3%)
AD and WP < 50 and (o:rest=0 or rest=1) and ats streak < 0 and 0 < o:ats streak < 3

det covers vs wsh From PunterBoss ATS:166-107-6 (1.77, 60.8%)
AD and WP < 50 and o:WP > 50 and ats streak < 0 and o:ats streak > 0 and playoffs = 0 and season >= 2003 and on:H and 8 <= game number <= 63

okc and orl cover vs bos and ny --- from jmon sitpost #1345 ATS:14-36-0 (-5.22, 28.0%)
H and tA(FTA) <= 21 and month=11 and F and -8.5 <= line <= -3 and 2008 <= season and rest < 4 and o:rest < 3 and losses > 0 and o:wins < 7 and o:losses < 9

por covers vs den -- from jmon sitpost#1275 ATS: 18-45-3 (-3.58, 28.6%)
HD and line <= 10 and p:AL and po:blocks >= 10 and rest < 4 and 2007 < season

no covers vs lal -- From me in sitpost #1265 ATS:140-212-7 (-1.75, 39.8%)
pu margin > 10 and rest < 1 and P:L and season > 2008

Attention Denver moved from Dog to Fav.

[JMon]

Jmon...the Spurs didn't fit into the line filter here....what was the rationale behind the Spurs? Fit the other parameters and you felt the line still had value? I took out the line filter and this game still didn't show up??

I was just using that as an example of how I want the best bet posted for tracking. =)