NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

[GolfAddict]

Nash13
I guess I don't have enough posts to send a private message.
my e-mail address is GolfAddict420@gmail

[FunkFreaker]

hr.tsenov@gmail.com I'm working on some queries too.

[Consigliere]

Just added z scores to each of the trends for referencing. Looks great so far. Will add trends that I have that aren't in there yet.

[FunkFreaker]

Here is one:

tA(FTA)<=21 and otA(FTA)>=26.5 and HD and line<10.5

56-141 (-5.88, 28.4%)
78-116-3 (-1.22, 40.2%)	avg line: 4.7

We want to fade home dog which is bad on FTA against away favorite which goes to the line more often. Not a bad percentage for almost 200 samples. If you split it on seasons you can see only 4 losing with small losing records (2-2-0, 4-3-0, 7-5-1 and 2-0-0).

[FunkFreaker]

And another one with almost 300 samples:

tA(FTA)>otA(FTA) and AF and p : LAF and line>=-11

191-94 (4.89, 67.0%)
164-115-6 (0.20, 58.8%)	avg line: -4.7

We want to take better team (fav) on a road trip which just lost as a favorite at road and we also want this team to go to the line more often than the opponent You can play with this query to take better percentage with small sample of results.

[pip2]

And another one with almost 300 samples:

tA(FTA)>otA(FTA) and AF and p : LAF and line>=-11

191-94 (4.89, 67.0%)
164-115-6 (0.20, 58.8%)	avg line: -4.7

We want to take better team (fav) on a road trip which just lost as a favorite at road and we also want this team to go to the line more often than the opponent You can play with this query to take better percentage with small sample of results.

Thanks FunFreaker! I think you are right, it is a great base to work from -- even just selecting game number parameters easily lifts it up into the 60's percentage-wise...

[Ronald S.]

Here's one favoring the Under in the Raptors/Magic game

H and ats streak >= 4 and p:line <= -10 and season >= 2005
SU: 52-14 (8.86, 78.8%)
ATS: 32-34-0 (0.32, 48.5%) avg line: -8.5
O/U: 20-43-3 (-4.26, 31.7%) avg total: 197.7

H and ats streak >= 4 and p:line <= -10 and line <= -10
SU: 49-4 (12.58, 92.5%)
ATS: 24-27-2 (0.02, 47.1%) avg line: -12.6
O/U: 19-34-0 (-2.34, 35.8%) avg total: 194.7

H and ats streak >= 4 and p:line <= -10 and line <= -10 and season >= 2005
SU: 25-1 (13.58, 96.2%)
ATS: 12-14-0 (1.04, 46.2%) avg line: -12.5
O/U: 6-20-0 (-7.63, 23.1%) avg total: 198.7

[pip2]

Here's one favoring the Under in the Raptors/Magic game

H and ats streak >= 4 and p:line <= -10 and season >= 2005
SU: 52-14 (8.86, 78.8%)
ATS: 32-34-0 (0.32, 48.5%) avg line: -8.5
O/U: 20-43-3 (-4.26, 31.7%) avg total: 197.7

H and ats streak >= 4 and p:line <= -10 and line <= -10
SU: 49-4 (12.58, 92.5%)
ATS: 24-27-2 (0.02, 47.1%) avg line: -12.6
O/U: 19-34-0 (-2.34, 35.8%) avg total: 194.7

H and ats streak >= 4 and p:line <= -10 and line <= -10 and season >= 2005
SU: 25-1 (13.58, 96.2%)
ATS: 12-14-0 (1.04, 46.2%) avg line: -12.5
O/U: 6-20-0 (-7.63, 23.1%) avg total: 198.7

Gees, that looks really sweet to me. Thanks ronald!

[hyahya]

Really busy at work these days but will add whichever plays I have stored to the spreadsheet by the end of next week.

[Ronald S.]

And same game, favoring Raptors to cover

H and ats streak >= 4 and -11.5 <= line <= -9.5
SU: 133-12 (13.20, 91.7%)
ATS: 96-48-1 (2.88, 66.7%) avg line: -10.3
O/U: 71-70-4 (0.46, 50.4%) avg total: 194.6

H and ats streak >= 4 and -11.5 <= line <= -9.5 and season >= 2005
SU: 73-5 (13.85, 93.6%)
ATS: 54-23-1 (3.56, 70.1%) avg line: -10.3
O/U: 32-43-3 (-1.60, 42.7%) avg total: 196.5

[Ronald S.]

Gees, that looks really sweet to me. Thanks ronald!

NP! Hopefully these work better than yesterday!

[nash13]

Great work guys, I try to add everyone who contributes here and in other threads.

[Consigliere]

And same game, favoring Raptors to cover

H and ats streak >= 4 and -11.5 <= line <= -9.5
SU: 133-12 (13.20, 91.7%)
ATS: 96-48-1 (2.88, 66.7%) avg line: -10.3
O/U: 71-70-4 (0.46, 50.4%) avg total: 194.6

H and ats streak >= 4 and -11.5 <= line <= -9.5 and season >= 2005
SU: 73-5 (13.85, 93.6%)
ATS: 54-23-1 (3.56, 70.1%) avg line: -10.3
O/U: 32-43-3 (-1.60, 42.7%) avg total: 196.5

Like the Raptors angles. I'm on both. Also on the two dogs on the spreadsheet. The Magic pick on the sheet I'm against...I took the sheet data and put it into excel and started pulling the trend results individually for 1000 results and plotting them on a CUSUM chart to understand better how each trend is working. The Magic pick, trend NBA63 shows very short term fade results but if you look at the full history you will see that there are short term trends that make it really good to tail and other short term trends that make it really good to fade. I will post the pics tomorrow to show but I think this will help us distinguish long term profitable trends vs short term variability. NBA04 and NBA11 both show the perfect CUSUM chart for long term profitability.

[pip2]

And same game, favoring Raptors to cover

H and ats streak >= 4 and -11.5 <= line <= -9.5
SU: 133-12 (13.20, 91.7%)
ATS: 96-48-1 (2.88, 66.7%) avg line: -10.3
O/U: 71-70-4 (0.46, 50.4%) avg total: 194.6

H and ats streak >= 4 and -11.5 <= line <= -9.5 and season >= 2005
SU: 73-5 (13.85, 93.6%)
ATS: 54-23-1 (3.56, 70.1%) avg line: -10.3
O/U: 32-43-3 (-1.60, 42.7%) avg total: 196.5

Hmm..
H and ats streak >= 4 and -11.5 <= line <= -9.5 and game number <10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80

11 6-5-0 (0.00, 54.5%) game number < 10
27 19-8-0 (3.44, 70.4%) game number < 20
42 29-13-0 (2.85, 69.0%) game number < 30
64 42-22-0 (3.12, 65.6%) game number < 40
75 48-27-0 (2.27, 64.0%) game number < 50
92 62-30-0 (3.09, 67.4%) game number < 60
116 78-38-0 (3.10, 67.2%) game number < 70
132 87-44-1 (2.91, 66.4%) game number < 80

[JMon]

Hmm..
H and ats streak >= 4 and -11.5 <= line <= -9.5 and game number <10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80

11 6-5-0 (0.00, 54.5%) game number < 10
27 19-8-0 (3.44, 70.4%) game number < 20
42 29-13-0 (2.85, 69.0%) game number < 30
64 42-22-0 (3.12, 65.6%) game number < 40
75 48-27-0 (2.27, 64.0%) game number < 50
92 62-30-0 (3.09, 67.4%) game number < 60
116 78-38-0 (3.10, 67.2%) game number < 70
132 87-44-1 (2.91, 66.4%) game number < 80

good use the 'group-by' feature . Make life easier, eh?

[pip2]

good use the 'group-by' feature . Make life easier, eh?

I tried to combine hiyahya's query showing tor loses ats vs orl, with ronald's query showing tor wins:
H and ats streak >= 4 and -11.5 <= line <= -9.5 and p:margin>=25 and line>p:line

SU: 7-1 (13.12, 87.5%)
ATS: 6-2-0 (2.44, 75.0%) avg line: -10.7
O/U: 1-7-0 (-12.00, 12.5%) avg total: 192.1

It looks like ronald's query won!

[JMon]

Wouldn't mind putting together a SDQL 'BEST BET' tracker together here on this thread. I will keep track. Let me know who is interested? And I will relay the rules...think it would be fun!

[pip2]

Wouldn't mind putting together a SDQL 'BEST BET' tracker together here on this thread. I will keep track. Let me know who is interested? And I will relay the rules...think it would be fun!

I think that would be fun

[JMon]

I think that would be fun

Cool...if we can get 5+...I will do it!

NBA SDQL BEST BET 2014-15

JMon
pip2

[nash13]

I am with you too, of course!
I will mark a new table for that and transfer for tracking purposes.

[Ronald S.]

@pip: Good stuff. Looks like the trend is pretty consistent throughout the year although the sample size is definitely small for games 10 and under... Still looks like a good play though since it is pretty consistent, though I would definitely feel more confident if it was next week!

@Consigliere: On Raptors and Under, let's hit it!

[nbilln]

im the kwn email, sent a request a couple days ago, can i get access nash?

[JMon]

I am with you too, of course!
I will mark a new table for that and transfer for tracking purposes.

Great! I think it will correlate nicely with your doc. I have been thinking about doing this for some time. I will relay the rules once we get 5+...more the better so sign up fellas. Overall and individual will be tracked.

[JMon]

Cool...if we can get 5+...I will do it!

NBA SDQL BEST BET 2014-15

1. JMon
2. pip2
3. nash13

nash13 added to Best Bet.

[Ronald S.]

Here is something interesting:

55-5 (13.87, 91.7%) 39-20-1 (3.70, 66.1%) avg line: -10.2 28-30-2 (-1.59, 48.3%) avg total: 196.8

So ok, it looks like a decent play on the Mavs to cover tonight at home against the Kings. But there's more:

24-4 (13.57, 85.7%) 15-12-1 (3.18, 55.6%) avg line: -10.4 28-0-0 (11.16, 100.0%) avg total: 196.9

29-1 (13.60, 96.7%) 22-8-0 (3.50, 73.3%) avg line: -10.1 0-30-0 (-13.60, 0.0%) avg total: 196.9

Look at the ATS record when it goes Under the total! I know it's still a small sample size but looks like correlation to me!

And here it is with line < -5

79-11 (12.06, 87.8%) 56-31-3 (2.68, 64.4%) avg line: -9.4 38-47-5 (-2.23, 44.7%) avg total: 197.6

32-6 (11.45, 84.2%) 20-16-2 (1.84, 55.6%) avg line: -9.6 38-0-0 (11.34, 100.0%) avg total: 197.4

42-5 (11.98, 89.4%) 32-14-1 (2.63, 69.6%) avg line: -9.4 0-47-0 (-13.44, 0.0%) avg total: 198.2

Again, some correlation between the ATS win and the Under!

Parlay of Dallas with the Under is definitely looking juicy here... Should I also parlay Kings with the Over?

[Ronald S.]

nash13 added to Best Bet.

Count me in too! Though admittedly, I may miss a day here and there, but I feel like I could get a play in on most days

[JMon]

Count me in too! Though admittedly, I may miss a day here and there, but I feel like I could get a play in on most days

Great Ronald. There will be no requirement to post everyday.

[JMon]

Cool...if we can get 5+...I will do it!

NBA SDQL BEST BET 2014-15

JMon
pip2
nash13
Ronald S.

Ronald S. add to the Best Bet

[hyahya]

Ronald S. add to the Best Bet

I'm in.

[Mako-SBR]

And another one with almost 300 samples:

tA(FTA)>otA(FTA) and AF and p : LAF and line>=-11

191-94 (4.89, 67.0%)
164-115-6 (0.20, 58.8%)	avg line: -4.7

We want to take better team (fav) on a road trip which just lost as a favorite at road and we also want this team to go to the line more often than the opponent You can play with this query to take better percentage with small sample of results.

Thanks FunFreaker! I think you are right, it is a great base to work from -- even just selecting game number parameters easily lifts it up into the 60's percentage-wise...

Wow, definitely, all kinds of tweaks work with this base.

Good job Funk, very nice.

[Ronald S.]

Last one dealing with teams that scored 16 or fewer in the 4th quarter in their previous game

87-26 (7.81, 77.0%) 37-75-1 (-2.18, 33.0%) avg line: -10.0 48-64-1 (-1.88, 42.9%) avg total: 191.9

15-5 (7.25, 75.0%) 4-16-0 (-3.02, 20.0%) avg line: -10.3 7-13-0 (-4.45, 35.0%) avg total: 190.4

37-10 (6.74, 78.7%) 15-32-0 (-3.26, 31.9%) avg line: -10.0 20-26-1 (-0.84, 43.5%) avg total: 190.4

8-2 (3.30, 80.0%) 1-9-0 (-6.55, 10.0%) avg line: -9.8 2-8-0 (-10.20, 20.0%) avg total: 189.5

Looks like a good play fading the Warriors but Pop will also probably rest some players and can't really take that into consideration with these trends so not sure yet. An interesting dynamic though is that the ats record starts getting bad right around the -7 range. It's actually pretty decent below -7 but as the spread balloons, the ats record gets worse and worse and really gets terrible around the -9.5 to -11.5 range. Now it opened at -6.5 but has moved to -8.5 which would support fading the warriors even more but the line has moved probably because Pop will sit players out! Kind of a catch 22 lol.

HF and rest=1 and p:rest=0 and p:P4<=16 and line

[JMon]

Cool...if we can get 5+...I will do it!

NBA SDQL BEST BET 2014-15

JMon
pip2
nash13
Ronald S.
hyahya

hyahya. add to the Best Bet..

We have five! Best Bet rules will follow shortly. Best Bet entries will be capped off at 10- for ease of tracking! Let's go guys five more!

[Mako-SBR]

hyahya. add to the Best Bet..

We have five! Best Bet rules will follow shortly. Best Bet entries will be capped off at 10- for ease of tracking! Let's go guys five more!

I'm in!

[JMon]

I'm in!

Hoping you would get in..think it will be fun!

[Mako-SBR]

Hoping you would get in..think it will be fun!

Heck yeah, good idea buddy!