NBA Stituational Bet, SDQL

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  • Mako-SBR
    SBR Sharp
    • 10-15-13
    • 492

    #316
    Originally posted by cofaga
    P:AL and op:margin>10 and p:HW and 65>WP>o:WP and -10<=line<=-5 and H

    My logic in this is taking the better team in a away loss revenge spot. Both teams coming off wins and home team is a decent favourite. If you get rid of the 65 still hits over 60% and gives you a larger sample

    Any input is welcomed thanks
    That's actually pretty good cofaga, I like the logic. You can tweak it a hundred ways but at the end of the day you're playing off a base revenge scenario where the opponent comes in hot off a big win (and is thus potentially overvalued even as an away dog).

    With that -5 to -10 line parameter you set the dog isn't getting much beyond the standard away court bonus, which is great considering the home team is a superior performing team on the season who likely just lost the prior meeting on a fluke. That line filter tends to fit with the core logic, which is what you want.

    The sample size is low at 4-6 plays per season but that can be an advantage to some extent because if you're on the fence about the system in terms of it being valid or not it's not going to bankrupt you or lose you a disproportionately high amount of units as you play it to find out since it's grouped in with all your other system plays.

    If say you make 100 or more total plays in an NBA season on average from the systems you've created or follow, then adding in a borderline low-volume scenario or two like this one won't hurt you badly if it winds up being a 40-50% winner...and of course if it wins more than 52.4% then it just adds to the others as well.

    Nice work.
    Last edited by Mako-SBR; 03-07-14, 06:26 PM.
    Comment
    • cofaga
      SBR Rookie
      • 01-30-14
      • 32

      #317
      Originally posted by Mako-SBR
      That's actually pretty good cofaga, I like the logic. You can tweak it a hundred ways but at the end of the day you're playing off a base revenge scenario where the opponent comes in hot off a big win (and is thus potentially overvalued even as an away dog).

      With that -5 to -10 line parameter you set the dog isn't getting much beyond the standard away court bonus, which is great considering the home team is a superior performing team on the season who likely just lost the prior meeting on a fluke. That line filter tends to fit with the core logic, which is what you want.

      The sample size is low at 4-6 plays per season but that can be an advantage to some extent because if you're on the fence about the system in terms of it being valid or not it's not going to bankrupt you or lose you a disproportionately high amount of units as you play it to find out since it's grouped in with all your other system plays.

      If say you make 100 or more total plays in an NBA season on average from the systems you've created or follow, then adding in a borderline low-volume scenario or two like this one won't hurt you badly if it winds up being a 40-50% winner...and of course if it wins more than 52.4% then it just adds to the others as well.

      Nice work.
      Thanks for the input!
      Comment
      • Mako-SBR
        SBR Sharp
        • 10-15-13
        • 492

        #318
        Originally posted by cofaga
        P:AL and op:margin>10 and p:HW and 65>WP>o:WP and -10<=line<=-5 and H

        My logic in this is taking the better team in a away loss revenge spot. Both teams coming off wins and home team is a decent favourite. If you get rid of the 65 still hits over 60% and gives you a larger sample

        Any input is welcomed thanks
        Winner, Toronto
        Comment
        • Wojo
          SBR MVP
          • 03-19-10
          • 1764

          #319
          Originally posted by Mako-SBR

          The sample size is low at 4-6 plays per season but that can be an advantage to some extent because if you're on the fence about the system in terms of it being valid or not it's not going to bankrupt you or lose you a disproportionately high amount of units as you play it to find out since it's grouped in with all your other system plays.
          Nice work.
          I am not as adamant about having more than 6 plays a season on a trend if it works for enough years with a large enough total sample.

          I don't understand what you mean that this system is "grouped in with all your other system plays" and thus "it's not going to bankrupt you". How do you consider systems to be "grouped in" with other systems?

          Thanks, just trying to understand your philosophy.

          Oh, forgot to say it appears to be a very nice system!
          Comment
          • JMon
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 12-11-09
            • 9800

            #320
            Mako..got your situation off the group

            All school is in session...looking for translation here. 2pts!!! Only one losing year- 2007 (with filters)

            H and tA(points-o: points)<=-9 and opo: points>=100 and oppo: points>=100 and opppo: points>=100

            additional filters:

            and rest<4 and line<10
            Comment
            • JMon
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 12-11-09
              • 9800

              #321
              Originally posted by cofaga
              P:AL and op:margin>10 and p:HW and 65>WP>o:WP and -10<=line<=-5 and H

              My logic in this is taking the better team in a away loss revenge spot. Both teams coming off wins and home team is a decent favourite. If you get rid of the 65 still hits over 60% and gives you a larger sample

              Any input is welcomed thanks
              nice work of sdql bud
              Comment
              • JMon
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 12-11-09
                • 9800

                #322
                Next session

                Looking for the sdql here: over play here. Also make sure to check out the western conference in this situation

                1. Home team
                2. total over or equal to 200
                3. average defense allowing 98 to 92 a game
                4. playing against a bad defense allowing 102 to 98 a game
                5. after 42+ games
                6. after two straight wins of 10 points or more.
                Comment
                • Wojo
                  SBR MVP
                  • 03-19-10
                  • 1764

                  #323
                  Very nice trend, JMon.

                  If you consider fundamentals, Nelson and Oladipo are questionable tonight. Could be problems for a weak offensive team.
                  Comment
                  • Mako-SBR
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 10-15-13
                    • 492

                    #324
                    Originally posted by JMon
                    Next session

                    Looking for the sdql here: over play here. Also make sure to check out the western conference in this situation

                    1. Home team
                    2. total over or equal to 200
                    3. average defense allowing 98 to 92 a game
                    4. playing against a bad defense allowing 102 to 98 a game
                    5. after 42+ games
                    6. after two straight wins of 10 points or more.
                    Never would have thought it would be that particular game tonight...but that's the beauty of SDQL mining, to point out situations for analysis that wouldn't reveal themselves otherwise.

                    Who is it lurkers, solve the riddle. It's a good exercise too, because knowing how to pull average points for and against on the season for teams and their opponents from SDQL is a truly great filter in a ton of solid scenarios. You can do it!
                    Last edited by Mako-SBR; 03-08-14, 03:49 PM.
                    Comment
                    • Noleafclover
                      SBR MVP
                      • 06-06-13
                      • 1349

                      #325
                      Originally posted by JMon
                      Mako..got your situation off the group

                      All school is in session...looking for translation here. 2pts!!! Only one losing year- 2007 (with filters)

                      H and tA(points-o: points)<=-9 and opo: points>=100 and oppo: points>=100 and opppo: points>=100

                      additional filters:

                      and rest<4 and line<10
                      Home and in all prior away games this season against this opponent, opponent's points are 10 more total than team's. Opponent has given up 100+ in last 3.
                      ?
                      Comment
                      • JAnthony
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 11-25-13
                        • 635

                        #326
                        Originally posted by Mako-SBR
                        Never would have thought it would be that particular game tonight...but that's the beauty of SDQL mining, to point out situations for analysis that wouldn't reveal themselves otherwise.

                        Who is it lurkers, solve the riddle. It's a good exercise too, because knowing how to pull average points for and against on the season for teams and their opponents from SDQL is a truly great filter in a ton of solid scenarios. You can do it!
                        I believe I know how to put this SDQL together, but I have no idea what is the correct wording for "points allowed" (defense)?
                        Comment
                        • cash$bro91
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 04-16-11
                          • 684

                          #327
                          Originally posted by JMon
                          Next session

                          Looking for the sdql here: over play here. Also make sure to check out the western conference in this situation

                          1. Home team
                          2. total over or equal to 200
                          3. average defense allowing 98 to 92 a game
                          4. playing against a bad defense allowing 102 to 98 a game
                          5. after 42+ games
                          6. after two straight wins of 10 points or more.
                          H and total>=200 and p:W and pp:W and p:margin>=10 and pp:margin>=10 and game number>=42 and 102>=oA(ooints)>=98 and 98>=tA(ooints)>=92

                          For some reason, I can't edit the query. Tried numerous times to get rid of the emoticon but you can figure it out.
                          Last edited by cash$bro91; 03-08-14, 04:24 PM.
                          Comment
                          • JAnthony
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 11-25-13
                            • 635

                            #328
                            Originally posted by cash$bro91
                            H and total>=200 and p:W and pp:W and p:margin>=10 and pp:margin>=10 and game number>=42 and 102>=oA(ooints)>=98 and 98>=tA(ooints)>=92

                            Should be instead of the emoticon. For some reason, I can't edit.
                            Thanks for showing me another way, how to draw averages. Just a tip, next time you can leave out those p:W parameters, since margin indicates that it was a win already.
                            Comment
                            • Noleafclover
                              SBR MVP
                              • 06-06-13
                              • 1349

                              #329
                              Originally posted by Mako-SBR
                              Never would have thought it would be that particular game tonight...but that's the beauty of SDQL mining, to point out situations for analysis that wouldn't reveal themselves otherwise.

                              Who is it lurkers, solve the riddle. It's a good exercise too, because knowing how to pull average points for and against on the season for teams and their opponents from SDQL is a truly great filter in a ton of solid scenarios. You can do it!
                              I cheated, I've got average points for/against saved from a previous post. Wouldn't have thought of it either, certainly leery of backing this team on the road to score enough points to keep up and do their part, but the total's really low for the way the other team's been playing, and a couple things I look at in my handicapping routine support it for the most part, so I'll be on it despite their typical away performance.

                              Thanks Jmon
                              Comment
                              • Mako-SBR
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 10-15-13
                                • 492

                                #330
                                Originally posted by Noleafclover
                                I cheated, I've got average points for/against saved from a previous post. Wouldn't have thought of it either, certainly leery of backing this team on the road to score enough points to keep up and do their part, but the total's really low for the way the other team's been playing, and a couple things I look at in my handicapping routine support it for the most part, so I'll be on it despite their typical away performance.
                                Definitely a white-knuckle bet, especially with that road team being dinged up with some injuries combined with the home team's tendency to reduce starter minutes in games like these.

                                Which is why the right thing to do is exactly what you mentioned leaf, combine it with your other capping processes to make the most informed decision. I put a half unit on it for fun as it's always nice to try out new systems the same day they're posted to the board as we did last night from cofaga's which won.
                                Comment
                                • hyahya
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 03-08-14
                                  • 165

                                  #331
                                  First time poster and user of SDQL

                                  1. Home team avg between 92 and 98 points against
                                  2. visiting team avg between 95 and 100 point against
                                  3. after game 42
                                  4. both teams on a back to back
                                  5. line between -3 and -10
                                  Comment
                                  • hyahya
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 03-08-14
                                    • 165

                                    #332
                                    Even better if you swap in-5 for the -3.

                                    Nice additional boost by both teams going under last night along with their tendencies this year to play to the over in road dog and home favorite scenarios.
                                    Comment
                                    • green7
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 10-21-10
                                      • 190

                                      #333
                                      Both teams off no rest

                                      Home Favorites off no rest versus an opponent off no rest on Saturday in particular are very good over plays.

                                      Add "day" to your query to see.

                                      92<=tA(ooints)<=98 and HF and 95<=oA(ooints)<=100 and rest=0 and o:rest=0 and -5>=line>=-10 and day
                                      Comment
                                      • comon kryptonite
                                        SBR Hustler
                                        • 01-14-14
                                        • 95

                                        #334
                                        so whats a play for tonight guys??
                                        Comment
                                        • hyahya
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 03-08-14
                                          • 165

                                          #335
                                          Here's another interesting trend:

                                          A and date>20081010 and game number>42 and 60>WP>40 and o:WP<30 and P:HFL and -12<line<-5< html=""></line<-5<><=line<=-5
                                          Comment
                                          • JMon
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 12-11-09
                                            • 9800

                                            #336
                                            looking good in here guys luv seeing sdql in action!
                                            Comment
                                            • JMon
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 12-11-09
                                              • 9800

                                              #337
                                              Originally posted by Noleafclover
                                              I cheated, I've got average points for/against saved from a previous post. Wouldn't have thought of it either, certainly leery of backing this team on the road to score enough points to keep up and do their part, but the total's really low for the way the other team's been playing, and a couple things I look at in my handicapping routine support it for the most part, so I'll be on it despite their typical away performance.

                                              Thanks Jmon
                                              When I was first learning...I saved everything in a folder for personal reference. Especially summatives. You will find out ....this language is rather easy peasy...
                                              Comment
                                              • JMon
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 12-11-09
                                                • 9800

                                                #338
                                                .....
                                                Last edited by JMon; 03-08-14, 08:02 PM. Reason: wrong reply
                                                Comment
                                                • JMon
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 12-11-09
                                                  • 9800

                                                  #339
                                                  Originally posted by cash$bro91
                                                  H and total>=200 and p:W and pp:W and p:margin>=10 and pp:margin>=10 and game number>=42 and 102>=oA(ooints)>=98 and 98>=tA(ooints)>=92

                                                  For some reason, I can't edit the query. Tried numerous times to get rid of the emoticon but you can figure it out.
                                                  maddening is it not...need to put a space in between the : and the p. Those trying to run it will have to eliminate the spaces.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JMon
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 12-11-09
                                                    • 9800

                                                    #340
                                                    Originally posted by Noleafclover
                                                    Home and in all prior away games this season against this opponent, opponent's points are 10 more total than team's. Opponent has given up 100+ in last 3.
                                                    ?
                                                    tA(points-o: points)<=-9

                                                    is the summative for being outscored by their oppt by 9 or more (on average)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • figue
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 07-23-10
                                                      • 2524

                                                      #341
                                                      Originally posted by comon kryptonite
                                                      so whats a play for tonight guys??
                                                      the play is san antonio/orlando over.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • figue
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 07-23-10
                                                        • 2524

                                                        #342
                                                        Originally posted by JMon
                                                        When I was first learning...I saved everything in a folder for personal reference. Especially summatives. You will find out ....this language is rather easy peasy...
                                                        since english its not my native languaje its hard to me ,but im trying to learn
                                                        Comment
                                                        • figue
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 07-23-10
                                                          • 2524

                                                          #343
                                                          Originally posted by hyahya
                                                          Here's another interesting trend:

                                                          A and date>20081010 and game number>42 and 60>WP>40 and o:WP<30 and P:HFL and -12<line<-5< html=""></line<-5<><=line<=-5
                                                          the play here was wizards.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • figue
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 07-23-10
                                                            • 2524

                                                            #344
                                                            Originally posted by JMon
                                                            Next session

                                                            Looking for the sdql here: over play here. Also make sure to check out the western conference in this situation

                                                            1. Home team
                                                            2. total over or equal to 200
                                                            3. average defense allowing 98 to 92 a game
                                                            4. playing against a bad defense allowing 102 to 98 a game
                                                            5. after 42+ games
                                                            6. after two straight wins of 10 points or more.
                                                            winner
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Jamaro85
                                                              SBR Rookie
                                                              • 02-26-14
                                                              • 12

                                                              #345
                                                              Just curious, is there a way to rule out playoff games from the query? Being able to do so isn't a huge deal for me right now, but if you know a good way to do it please hook it up!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Mako-SBR
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 10-15-13
                                                                • 492

                                                                #346
                                                                Originally posted by figue
                                                                winner
                                                                Yup yup, nice J!


                                                                Originally posted by Jamaro85
                                                                Just curious, is there a way to rule out playoff games from the query? Being able to do so isn't a huge deal for me right now, but if you know a good way to do it please hook it up!
                                                                Yes, smart question. I do it often as it alters a lot of late season scenario results.

                                                                'playoffs=0' to eliminate playoff games.

                                                                PS - A lot of new people contributing great ideas in the thread the past few days. Keep it up and nice work.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JayHorne3
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 11-07-11
                                                                  • 1130

                                                                  #347
                                                                  Mako,

                                                                  Could you explain how to add opponents defensive stats? Say for example an opponent that averages giving up less than 96 points? I can not find that in the manual and want to add that to a few of the scripts I have been running to see what I can pull. Just have not figured out the defense part?

                                                                  Thanks
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • cofaga
                                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                                    • 01-30-14
                                                                    • 32

                                                                    #348
                                                                    Originally posted by JayHorne3
                                                                    Mako,

                                                                    Could you explain how to add opponents defensive stats? Say for example an opponent that averages giving up less than 96 points? I can not find that in the manual and want to add that to a few of the scripts I have been running to see what I can pull. Just have not figured out the defense part?

                                                                    Thanks
                                                                    oA(o: points)<=96 according to your example
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JayHorne3
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-07-11
                                                                      • 1130

                                                                      #349
                                                                      Originally posted by cofaga
                                                                      oA(o: points)<=96 according to your example
                                                                      Thanks a lot bud
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • comon kryptonite
                                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                                        • 01-14-14
                                                                        • 95

                                                                        #350
                                                                        your play hit for yesterday...thanks for posting...any ideas on the latter games...i cant figure out this NBA at all....im new to this sort of wagering and ill tell you guys.... you may need to add the referee's into the equation as well.... and if certain teams get an "envelope" at half time or at the beginning of the game!!! as in todays game... heat score 2 point in ot!!!! really!!!
                                                                        Comment
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