Leans for Thursday 2/12/09

cocknocker · 02-12-09, 03:59 PM

Luv2Poker,

Lay off of it until right before tipoff. But if you must play it now then take it down to 2.

OC,

I don't middle, i simply play a side and take the moneyline for the other on another book with whatever amount I would have paid for the vigorish. For example $100 to win $90.91 on Greek and $10 on the moneyline for the other side on Betus. That's how I wager. I don't really EVER mention my hedges because I don't want to anger others when they see me win more on my hedge than i put up on my announced straight. But know this, any time that i make a wager on a favorite and the line is more than 4 and the moneyline is anything over +170 for the dog, you should already know that i made a play with the extras on the other side. It's automatic. I don't like discussing it, but it is automatic. For instance, when Cleveland lost outright to Indiana the other night, i didn't take a complete loss, and i'm just going to leave it at that.

nonsense48 · 02-12-09, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by SlowRoll

Jim Feist Pick!! UCLA v.s ASU- Under
Since I been trailing his picks he is 10-1 !!!

10-1 that has to be a first for feist. he usually sux

peterpan19 · 02-12-09, 04:00 PM

easy money early on, lets hope someone followed my BBL pick ??, Oldenburg -14, because they just beat Bremerhaven 102-75, more to come on Saturday

OC · 02-12-09, 04:01 PM

CK

Not to beat this into the ground but you are saying the better value is the moneyline on the dog rather than the points to try to middle correct?

Dexter · 02-12-09, 04:10 PM

i hope JP comes back - he was mad funny...

Dexter · 02-12-09, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by Luv2Poker

Dex/CK,

What do u think....my book has GS @ -3...should i buy it down a bit

well if you buy points, then do as ck preaches - and get on the key number (2).

the moneyline is a bit high at -170.

anthonydiamondLC · 02-12-09, 04:20 PM

One play today CK - - - - - Warriors -3. SHIP IT!

Cheme82 · 02-12-09, 04:21 PM

Originally posted by hockeytown11

his picks are assnine,he lays 300 juice all night,bet 2700 for 900 stuff like that

Hey bro you know your picks are good, and I'm using them on my thread but I have to call you out on this one.

The guy has been posting daily and updating daily since October. He hasn't had a losing month and even though he is barely hitting 54%, he has picked up over 27 K since NHL started back in October.

I understand your style is different, you don't lay big juice and like you said, he does so on a nightly basis. But with almost 500 wagers since October, he has proved he only lays the big juice if it is profitable in the long term. I understand someone laying -300 in one game and hitting really has no merit. But he has proved in the long run that he seldom gets burned on the big juice plays or his totals would be terrible.

Just my 2 cents.

cocknocker · 02-12-09, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by oc

ck

not to beat this into the ground but you are saying the better value is the moneyline on the dog rather than the points to try to middle correct?

bingo

cocknocker · 02-12-09, 04:26 PM

Gotcha anthonydiamonds!

Dexter · 02-12-09, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by cheme82

The guy has been posting daily and updating daily since October. He hasn't had a losing month and even though he is barely hitting 54%, he has picked up over 27 K since NHL started back in October.

is that b/c hes playing some games for larger amounts, or has he been incorporating big ML dogs as well?

cocknocker · 02-12-09, 04:31 PM

Dex,

See post #135 by hockeytown, homes....

vassman86 · 02-12-09, 04:38 PM

You've gotta give credit where it's due. TodaysAction (the guy on the NHL threads) has been making huge profits with his methodology: betting big favourites and what not. It's working out really well for him, which means he knows what he's doing. Bravo sir!

cocknocker · 02-12-09, 04:52 PM

Well vassman86, we will just see about that...

Starting tomorrow, we are moving to the NHL threads from 2/13/09 to 2/16/09 while the NBA All Star festivities garbage is going on.

So tomorrow, look for the CK Mafia page in the NHL pages, I will be in tailing mode for the sport, and our front man for those couple of days will be hockeytown11, our resident NHL expert.

Don't forget homies. And while we are there, let's all try to be on our best behavior, and show Uncle Willie the War Lord that we can go to different lands without incident. Think of it as a little vacation

Cheme82 · 02-12-09, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

is that b/c hes playing some games for larger amounts, or has he been incorporating big ML dogs as well?

He bets different amounts, in fact on any given night his big play might be about 5 to 10 times bigger than his small play. Usually a big favorite, but the way I see it if you can hit a -200 favorite 3 out of 4 times, you'll make a killing because these big favorites are available pretty much nightly on NHL.

TodaysAction · 02-12-09, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

I've been there before. Not a nice place to be when you do great record wise and lose that monster wager. Everyone else is happy that tailed the picks that opted to play them all evenly. But the creator gets slighted when the handicapping yeilds a strong play that doesn't pan out. I hate it when that happens

cocknocker,

Pardon the interruption of your thread, but there are a few points after reading to this point that I need to address.

Those nights happen and glad you get it/understand (flat betting verses layered).

Originally posted by hockeytown11

his picks are assnine,he lays 300 juice all night,bet 2700 for 900 stuff like that

hockeytown11,

Really? Are they really ass-a-nine? Just because you don't `cap the game the same ways I do (let alone wager as I do) does not make it as you wish to claim. I'd suggest you check out my spreadsheet for this season's hockey action and take a better look. You seem to think your way is the only way to do things, guess what son? It's not. Good luck with your action tonight and try to remember there's no such thing as a lock.

Originally posted by cheme82

Hey bro you know your picks are good, and I'm using them on my thread but I have to call you out on this one.

The guy has been posting daily and updating daily since October. He hasn't had a losing month and even though he is barely hitting 54%, he has picked up over 27 K since NHL started back in October.

I understand your style is different, you don't lay big juice and like you said, he does so on a nightly basis. But with almost 500 wagers since October, he has proved he only lays the big juice if it is profitable in the long term. I understand someone laying -300 in one game and hitting really has no merit. But he has proved in the long run that he seldom gets burned on the big juice plays or his totals would be terrible.

Just my 2 cents.

cheme82,

Thanks for the kind words but I think you're wasting your time and effort with that one.

Originally posted by Dexter

is that b/c hes playing some games for larger amounts, or has he been incorporating big ML dogs as well?

Dexter,

I play what my method of selection calls for. Sometimes, it's the favorite and sometimes the underdog. Both have obviously cashed along the way this season. As previously mentioned, feel free to check out my spreadsheet for the season's puck action. GL with your wagering tonight.

Originally posted by vassman86

You've gotta give credit where it's due. TodaysAction (the guy on the NHL threads) has been making huge profits with his methodology: betting big favourites and what not. It's working out really well for him, which means he knows what he's doing. Bravo sir!

vassman86,

Thank you sir. As I've said and stated what and how I do things is not for everyone. The record will not always be "pretty" (like I care?) since it was designed to make cash/money/units/your term for the season. BOL with your action the remainder of the season.

cocknocker,

Again sorry for the disruption of your thread and wish you a successful evening.

BCaldwell32 · 02-12-09, 05:09 PM

Originally posted by shoebox

One play today...ND +4 or more by tip off. The only reason Louisville won by so much last game was ot and the full court press wore them down for ot. Your gonna give me 4 or more to an Irish team that already proved they can keep it close in louisville home court.. Please ND is gonna roll today and should win this one straight up. 90% on Louisville I love it trap city.
Wait till tip off and see if you can get it at 5 or 5.5

WOW, I am a huge fan of Notre Dame and I wish what you are saying is true but they are playing awful!!! They have lost 7 games in a row and it has not been pretty. They are just not playing physical and relying to much on Harangody to keep them in games. I hope they win tonight but I do not think this game will be close.

Karayilan9 · 02-12-09, 05:17 PM

TodaysAction handled that with class, not in the childish way others who got some limelight have responded, respect man

nonsense48 · 02-12-09, 05:18 PM

i took port/g.s over 217.5 as i feel we have a shoot-out coming and in a shoot-out very often it comes down to the last one with the ball wins. jmo

nonsense48 · 02-12-09, 05:22 PM

booked:nba port/gs over 217.5 bos-3 nhl

tt/phil over 5.5 cbb:e.ky-10.5 1st 1/2 wash-9 1st 1/2 wash-16 nickle each. GOOD LUCK EVERYONE

MasterGollum · 02-12-09, 05:26 PM

Game: Portland at Golden State (10:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Portland +3.5 (-110)

The Warriors are getting a huge bounce here off their 144-point explosion against the Knicks. They are still not good in this role as they are just 6-9 ATS as a favorite. They are way overpriced here as they have not been favored over any winning team since November 5, before the teams settled to where they would ultimately be. Portland has not been an underdog all season on the road against a team with a losing record on the season. The Blazers are a young team and solid in the second of back-to-back nights at 12-5 ATS. The Warriors show inconsistency after a win as they are 13-43-1 ATS in their next game. We have a live dog here, and Portland gets the call. - Wunderdog

shoebox · 02-12-09, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by BCaldwell32

WOW, I am a huge fan of Notre Dame and I wish what you are saying is true but they are playing awful!!! They have lost 7 games in a row and it has not been pretty. They are just not playing physical and relying to much on Harangody to keep them in games. I hope they win tonight but I do not think this game will be close.

perfect set up game ND playing like poo Louisville -4. Why wouldn't you take louisville right? ND needs this one bad for nit or tourney bids. Hit a skid of late, but there at home serious gut check time. Plus public is pounding Louisville hard 90%

Killer Chihuahua · 02-12-09, 05:34 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

TodaysAction handled that with class, not in the childish way others who got some limelight have responded, respect man

I have always seen Todays Action handle himself with class...He takes time to answer every question no matter how big or small. He never speaks down to anyone and CERTAINLY never starts any crap. He has always preached that record does not matter as long as you are making money. He does lay large wagers on favorites but also lays wood on non favs and hits. The man has a record that speaks for itself and he posts every play. Any attack on this man would be childish and wrong.

shoebox · 02-12-09, 05:34 PM

Funny someone just talked about this feist guy, he just called me claiming he has a two team parlay winner tonite in the heat gm....

ANDYW15 · 02-12-09, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

TodaysAction handled that with class, not in the childish way others who got some limelight have responded, respect man

I'll second that, much respect. Alot better than the other clowns who came in here mouthing off with their first post! The guy's record is written in stone and there for all to see. He does what he does and his profits speak for themselves.

ANDYW15 · 02-12-09, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by shoebox

Funny someone just talked about this feist guy, he just called me claiming he has a two team parlay winner tonite in the heat gm....

he probably got it on the grapevine from PeachDog lol

nonsense48 · 02-12-09, 05:38 PM

gollum, stats don't lie. i feel the trap being set here

nonsense48 · 02-12-09, 05:39 PM

shoe, run away fast from that clown. he's one of those 50/50 touts

shoebox · 02-12-09, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by ANDYW15

he probably got it on the grapevine from PeachDog lol

I hate touts fukkin try to sucker people in that are down. They feed on the weak for pics that are pure bs..

shoebox · 02-12-09, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by nonsense48

shoe, run away fast from that clown. he's one of those 50/50 touts

I never listen to these clowns I usually skrew with them if I'm bored, for the most part I just hang up.

so im zach · 02-12-09, 05:43 PM

Originally posted by repski

Leaning Santa Clara(big) vs Pepperdine...

I'm on this, too. After the win against St. Mary's, Santa Clara is going to kill Pepperdine tonight.

TheLemonDropKid · 02-12-09, 05:48 PM

"The trio of Jaymac, Andy, and Lemon were spotted in a dark alley-way early this afternoon with black hoodies on. WHO their next victim will be is anyone's best guess......but WHEN is no mystery......for 'The Midnight Marauders' are degenerates that spend their late nights feasting on those LATE games that noone dares to touch. Plenty of potential victims tonight....will they be jumping on Wash St., Portland U., Montana, Utah St., or maybe San Diego???? GS Warriors are just a little too much in the public eye for these smooth criminals....or are they.....muhahahahaha!"

Okay I'll stop trippin'

Booked plays for the early stuff:
Phi/Ott Over 5.5
Cal/LA Over 5.5
TB -120
Car -135
E. Kentucky -10 (1H)
Celts -1 (1Q)

nonsense48 · 02-12-09, 05:57 PM

lemon, cal/la over 5.5 is that a hockeytown play?

BigMoneyMan · 02-12-09, 06:19 PM

I like the Bulls -4 so far. I am backed up again but should have everything done within the hour. GL

cocknocker · 02-12-09, 06:23 PM

TodaysAction

I don't mind your comments at all, actually you have earned super respect points with me by handling the issues at hand with such good class. Now that is the kind of thing that i like. Go straight to the source. Kind of reminds me of my venture into the NCAA threads. Now let's see if everyone can do things in the same manner tomorrow when we go over to the NHL land. No cursing, just addressing discrepencies in a polite neat manner.