Leans for Thursday 2/12/09

[BelieveTheHype]

So what is the consensus on the Celtic's Game, will they handle business b4 All Star Weekend?

tough for me to say.. i might avoid this game

i think dallas can win with boston coming off b2b, allen injured slightly and solid maverick play. since starting 2-7, dallas is 29-13 which i'm sure is one of the top 5 records in that period in league.

only problem i have here is no terry. last game vs sac antoine wright scored 23 which boston won't let happen.

to me this game might be an over type of game rather than a straight up play since dallas doesn't play very good d and boston will be a little tired so i could see dallas putting up 100 at home.

[The_Kid]

believethehype, the kid, big money, does the boston line look a little fishy to you? maybe like a trap, possibly? i'm no expert on the subject, but it seems kinda low, even with the celts coming off a b2b, and the possibility of ray allen out of the lineup tomorrow. is the flu about to hit the celtics?

edit: i see allen's expected to play...that kinda makes it seem even more fishy...thoughts?

I still think Dallas is a little bit inconsistent, which is the opposite of what LUNT thinks. According to winningedge.com Boston was favored by -3.5 last year at Dallas, which is similar to the line we're seeing tomorrow. If the linesmakers factored in Allen not playing, that's the only reason why I see the line being this low. If not, I think it should be at least a point or two more despite the Celtics being on the tail end of a back to back right before the All-Star Break. Garnett will put the clamps down on Dirk and that will force Kidd to probably shoot more than he'd like, which is something that I personally wouldn't trust him in doing. Maybe I'll wait till the morning to see the line movement because right now, it seems like a lot of people are on Boston (which is expected) but the line seems to have gone down despite the majority being on the Celtics. One thing that worries me is the lack of depth the Celtics now have with Tony Allen going down with an injury, especially with Allen being injured and Boston playing on consecutive nights. I trust Boston more than Dallas on any given night despite Ray Allen not being 100%.

[BelieveTheHype]

believethehype, the kid, big money, does the boston line look a little fishy to you? maybe like a trap, possibly? i'm no expert on the subject, but it seems kinda low, even with the celts coming off a b2b, and the possibility of ray allen out of the lineup tomorrow. is the flu about to hit the celtics?

edit: i see allen's expected to play...that kinda makes it seem even more fishy...thoughts?

i don't like the line and am not sure which way to go so i will probably play the over/under..

[SlowRoll]

Thanks HYPE. I need a good day tomorrow because today was horrible. A lot of action on the Warriors plus* im in the Bay so Fun Game to Watch(though that should be my last reason 4 betting)

[pho3nix32]

believethehype, the kid, big money, does the boston line look a little fishy to you? maybe like a trap, possibly? i'm no expert on the subject, but it seems kinda low, even with the celts coming off a b2b, and the possibility of ray allen out of the lineup tomorrow. is the flu about to hit the celtics?

edit: i see allen's expected to play...that kinda makes it seem even more fishy...thoughts?

if there's anything i learned in betting, it's never doubt your pick. once doubt settles in, then better not play and choose a different game.

[SlowRoll]

Jim Feist Pick!! UCLA v.s ASU- Under
Since I been trailing his picks he is 10-1 !!!

[texhooper]

slowroll, earlier, i was actually referring to you and not bigmoney about the celts game. the avatar threw me.

anyway, i actually might make a small play on the mavs if it goes down anymore come sunup. at this point, shuteye is the name of the game here in the central time zone.

the warriors are still my favorite play seeing the blazers turn it up the way they did against the thunder and having to travel to oakland in a b2b against the best team in basketball, the warriors.

[Cheme82]

You mean me????

ck, i didnt see anything bad over there, i just liked where somebody told "TodaysAction" where to find Hockeytown. Then the guy goes on to say, " he's in CKs thread, where they all talk to each other about picks, and this guy CK started the thread, but it looks like he jst sits back now and let's his "ck mafia" collaborate about picks. they all talk about things, and they seem to get better because of it....." just seems to hit the nail in the head. I just find it funny that the concept of what we do here, is so strange to all the other forums. It's like people in every other thread have no brains. they just blindly tail, and they find a thread like ours (ck's) weird.

I thought that was a good assessment of this place.

[BelieveTheHype]

i've am leaning towards the under...

boston 8-18 o/u on road
boston 3-9 on b2b
boston 7-13 o/u vs west
boston 1-10 o/u vs team with .500 record

dallas 15-9 o/u at home
dallas 10-10 o/u vs east
dallas 8-6 o/u vs team with .500 record

only things holding me back from locking now are
dallas hasn't had a game go under 200 since jan 13 and that game went 196
last time these two teams played 224 points were scored
boston scored 89 tonight with ray allen and kg combining for 15 points... hard to imagine them not scoring 100 on dallas

[SlowRoll]

slowroll, earlier, i was actually referring to you and not bigmoney about the celts game. the avatar threw me.

anyway, i actually might make a small play on the mavs if it goes down anymore come sunup. at this point, shuteye is the name of the game here in the central time zone.

the warriors are still my favorite play seeing the blazers turn it up the way they did against the thunder and having to travel to oakland in a b2b against the best team in basketball, the warriors.

Thanks for the advice....Man this is a tough decision I think it is a No Bet 4 me. Good Night and Good Luck! Warriors best Team in B-Ball ahahhaha. With you on the Warriors though -1.5

[texhooper]

if there's anything i learned in betting, it's never doubt your pick. once doubt settles in, then better not play and choose a different game.

one last perusal and i caught this...i never really liked the celts or the mavs in this game, but i think you've caught me trying to subconsiously force a play in this game, and i appreciate that. i'm off this game no matter what. might add the over in the warriors game due to your advice, as i was eyeing it anyway.

good lookin out, pho3nix.

[SlowRoll]

JUMP on the Warriors BandWagon or Get Ran Over!!!

[wangichu]

Early leans in NBA... all the home teams. Will be back w/ more.

I think i'm feeling what you're thinking here... I don't know if i'll do write ups if too many people have this, but i want to do some research because i've had too many thursdays that i should have nailed and missed on... i want to go 3 for 3 today.

[OC]

Scary thing is I agree. I need to do more research but I liked all 3 homies when the lines came out. I'll check back in later in the day. GL to all.

[Downunder]

I am really liking the Bulls. In great form over the past 2 weeks, Heat are battling away. Revenge factor as well. Always wary of the Wade factor but thinking this play is the best for the day at -3.

Also on with everyone on the GSW play.

GL

[SlowRoll]

I have to agree with you Downunder. Played spread on the Bulls, but bought 1 point.

[peterpan19]

just some stats for today, GS is 6-1 ATS at home against Por and 5-0 SU, just locked it in at -2 for 3.0
Chi is 9-2 ATS and 5-0 SU vs miami at home so really like CHi here, also take a loock at the over as it is 5-1 in Chi
most interesting Dal stat is they are 7-1 SU against Bos at home add in b2b night for Bos plus Dal getting points and I like Dal even more here, Dirk had a bad game against Chi but he will come back in this one plus the Bos injuries, give me Dallas and the points in this one

locked in: GS -2 for 3.0,
will lock in soon: Chi -? for 1.5 and Dal +? for 1.5
also tailing ck with his CBB picks today again

edit: plus Bos is only 5-5 ATS in b2b games this season

[peterpan19]

the_kid
Bos was the 3.5 underdog last year in Dallas and they won 94-90, so the opening line of +4 for Dallas was right on

[Dexter]

2/12/09-

lots of juicy angles point to the warriors in this one. golden state has beaten the blazers 5 straight in oak (covering 4 of 5) and winning by an avg margin of 10ppg. tomorrow night, the books are simply asking the warriors to win straight up. portland will likely be coming off a su win tonight, while the warriors will be rested and looking to avenge an earlier loss at port. this line screams value as i had my line set at gs -4. i'm getting down on this asap.

-warriors (big)

[SlowRoll]

Damn Mista Peter Pan you are distracting me with that pick bro. Appreciate the stats. What Book did you lock down Golden State at -2 ? All my books have it for -3 and -3.5 Think I might just have to placea small wager on Dallas Money Line.

[Dexter]

Magic played like crap today. It's been a roller coaster ride for me lately. Hopefully we can end the first half of the season in a high note fellas:

line: ptb@gsw 217
pick: 217 over

Trends supporting my lean:

- The over for Portland is 13-8 against bad defensive teams this season.
- The over for Golden State is 17-8 at home this season.
- The over for Golden State is 20-11 when avenging a loss versus an opponent this season.

The Blazers are at the end of a b2b and should be looking forward to the All Star Festivites. Tired legs and lack of focus means awful defense. We all know what the Warriors are like on defense (see link). Look forward for Portland and Golden State to provide us both a high octane basketball game and most importantly, cash for us to celebrate in the All Star Week!

i like this phx - was thinking of playing this myself, but i rarely do totals.

however as ck would say, i may "hijack" you on this one..ha

[Dexter]

God himself could not convince CK not to bet a secret play. He has said it time and time again if it qualifies as a secret play he bets 1500 on it and that is it. I am pretty sure there is no circumstance outside of the whole starting lineup for a team being suspended or dead where he would not bet a SP.

cocknockers new spokesperson? haha

he was not talking about a secret play bcald - thx for confusing me at 7 in the morning

[peterpan19]

slowroll
locked it in at pinny for -120 my friend, probably waiting until gametime b4 I lock in that Dallas pick
Chi is almost done, I will step out for an hour or so and probably lock it in

i also like that Tenn martin game ck mentioned early on, they beat em by 19 in their house and they covered and won the last 5 games overall against Jax

Damn Mista Peter Pan you are distracting me with that pick bro

glad to see you like it bro

[pho3nix32]

i like this phx - was thinking of playing this myself, but i rarely do totals.

however as ck would say, i may "hijack" you on this one..ha

im leaning on playing gsw as well. let us all put our heads together and get a sweep on our picks tomorrow!

[texhooper]

mavs/celts now 2.5. i just can't resist. mavs it is.

[hockeytown11]

Pucks for tonight

Philly/Ottawa over 5.5 (bigger than the rest)
calgary/la over 5.5
tampa -115 ml
carolina -130 ml

[Dexter]

2/12/09-

lots of juicy angles point to the warriors in this one. golden state has beaten the blazers 5 straight in oak (covering 4 of 5) and winning by an avg margin of 10ppg. tomorrow night, the books are simply asking the warriors to win straight up. portland will likely be coming off a su win tonight, while the warriors will be rested and looking to avenge an earlier loss at port. this line screams value as i had my line set at gs -4. i'm getting down on this asap.

-warriors (big)

god dammit - i knew this line was off last night. warriors now at 4 as expected. doesnt bother me - the blazers are gonna get blowed out

golden state opened as a 1 pt fav - sharp early money here for sure.

[pho3nix32]

booked plays for tomorrow:

gswov - my pick of the day
chi-3.5 and gsw-3.5 - pick of the board

hope to win 3 out of 3 tomorrow for some spending money on valentines day! goodluck to everyone!

[BigMoneyMan]

Good morning guys. I will have time today to actually post a hour or two before game time. Have a good day and I will be back with some winners for tonight.

[maddogmadden86]

lets do it big money!

[showtime2000]

Let's get'em today BigMoney!


Hockeytown, glad to see you on Carolina! They have been playng well recently. They own Florida at home and haven't played since Saturday so they should be well rested. This game has a little more incentive for Carolina with 1 point behind FLorida and extra rest. I looked at it this morning and put a smile on my face when you added to your card!
Like the rest of your card too.

[solobass]

Lunt101 i am with you on the Mavs ML as well, was surprised to see +2.5 this morning. dallas is a team where the numbers and public perception has not caught up yet, and that is gold GOOOLLLDDDD for us gamblers. (insert yukon cornelious impression here).

[peterpan19]

another interesting thing about that Tenn/Jax game
they both played tenn state just a few days ago
Tenn crushed state on the road winning by 27 points
Jax played them at home and lost by 10 points

Tenn -10 looking better every minute now

[MasterGollum]

NCAA - Pick of the Day
724 Troy -1.5

[solobass]

also for the superstitious, anyone planning on taking off friday the 13th?