New nba power rating system

[eanelson]

Portland is also a play according to the system.

[eanelson]

Portland covers. 1-0 thus far tonight

[eanelson]

No cover from the cavs. 1-1 on the night.

System Record:
Win 17
Loss 5
77.27%

Rule 3 Plays:
Win 0
Loss 1
00.00%

[ram1502]

Are you guys rounding up each individual power ranking? One should subtract before he rounds up or down....this might help or am i being retarded and overlooking the obvious? keep the "real" number as long as you can before you just have to round. Maybe this helps.
For example 108.4-103.5=4.9(which would equal a spread of 5).....but rounding 108-104=4.

[curious]

are you still looking for an excel guru?

I can do anything you want in excel.

Not sure what you need exactly. Drop me an email with instructions and send me the spreadsheet and I will fix you up.

i_bee_curious at yahoo dot com

[gameday10]

I like it but have a few questions. I have filled in 1/15 games. Do I go ahead and fill in 1/16 spread/totals? And also I am a little confused on reading the Ratings page, far side dealing with who to pick. How exactly am I supposed to be reading it? I see the Pick, Line Value, and HT-AT PR. Kind of confused on that part. I also have done some games by hand to try to get a feel for it. The lines opened at :

NYK+2.5/Wash: So, NYK 97-Wash 94.5 = 2.5 - 2.5 =0 No Play.
- actually this would fall into #3 correct?

Det/OKC+3.5: Det 99.5-OKC 93 = 6.5 - 3.5 = 3, Detroit is a play up to -4.5? (Since a -4.5 line would knock it down to 2)

Mil/Sac+1.5: Mil 101.5 - Sac 92.5 = 9 - 1.5 = 7.5, Milwaukee is a play up to -7?(Not sure about this)

Am I doing this right, just want to check.

[Formulawiz]

Are you guys rounding up each individual power ranking? One should subtract before he rounds up or down....this might help or am i being retarded and overlooking the obvious? keep the "real" number as long as you can before you just have to round. Maybe this helps.
For example 108.4-103.5=4.9(which would equal a spread of 5).....but rounding 108-104=4.

This is not hard to understand. My explanation calls for the rounding up or down to occur immediately. Last nights PR's are as follows:
POR 104, NJN 97, CLE 110.5, CHI 98, PHO 101.5 and DEN 103.5
Last night I also doubled up on POR because the sportrends PR agreed with it. Their power rating was POR 100 - NJN 92 = 8 for POR, - NJN HCA 3, POR = 5, - line 2 = POR 3. Outside of 2 pt overlay. 2 other games had no play.

[Formulawiz]

I like it but have a few questions. I have filled in 1/15 games. Do I go ahead and fill in 1/16 spread/totals? And also I am a little confused on reading the Ratings page, far side dealing with who to pick. How exactly am I supposed to be reading it? I see the Pick, Line Value, and HT-AT PR. Kind of confused on that part. I also have done some games by hand to try to get a feel for it. The lines opened at :

NYK+2.5/Wash: So, NYK 97-Wash 94.5 = 2.5 - 2.5 =0 No Play.
- actually this would fall into #3 correct?

Det/OKC+3.5: Det 99.5-OKC 93 = 6.5 - 3.5 = 3, Detroit is a play up to -4.5? (Since a -4.5 line would knock it down to 2)

Mil/Sac+1.5: Mil 101.5 - Sac 92.5 = 9 - 1.5 = 7.5, Milwaukee is a play up to -7?(Not sure about this)

Am I doing this right, just want to check.

For now the easiest thing for you to do is to do it manually. Look at the PR chart I will post later this morning. Then all you have to do is look at the matchup and take each teams PR and round up or down. Then subtract the PR's from each other and add the line. Next make sure the value is outside the 2 pt overlay. When your done go back to the program and compare the results. After a few tries I am sure you will get the hang of it.

[Formulawiz]

I can do anything you want in excel.

Not sure what you need exactly. Drop me an email with instructions and send me the spreadsheet and I will fix you up.

i_bee_curious at yahoo dot com

Yes we are. Let me get back to you later today with an explanation what we would like to do.

[Formulawiz]

NBA PR Chart

Here is todays NBA PR Chart. Please make sure to round up or down. prior to subtracting team matchups.
Based on early lines we have the following games.
WAS - 2.5 falls into rule #3 category, DET -4 a play at - 4 or < , MIL - 2 a play, ORL + 4 a play.

[Formulawiz]

NBA PR Spreadsheet help

Right now we have 2 forum members Meestermike and Curious who are willing to help us simplify the NBA PR system spreadsheet by automating it. While we have their help are there any options or ideas you may have that you would like to incorporate into the system which will help all of us in the long run kick the bookies ass.
Would you like to see Meestermike's spreadsheet incorporated. I think it generates some helpful stats.
Please let me know

[-*MeMpHiS*-]

Right now we have 2 forum members Meestermike and Curious who are willing to help us simplify the NBA PR system spreadsheet by automating it. While we have their help are there any options or ideas you may have that you would like to incorporate into the system which will help all of us in the long run kick the bookies ass.
Would you like to see Meestermike's spreadsheet incorporated. I think it generates some helpful stats.
Please let me know

Like you said anything that is going to help us all kick the crap out of the bookies

[SportsLockPicks]

so what are the system plays for tonight formulawhiz???

[-*MeMpHiS*-]

This is what i got

tor +4.5
ny +2.5**I believe this is rule 3 making this was -2.5 instead
cle -4
uta -5
det -3.5
mil-2
orl +4

if someone else can confirm these plays being correct this this is simple to understand!

[gameday10]

This is what i got

tor +4.5
ny +2.5**I believe this is rule 3 making this was -2.5 instead
cle -4
uta -5
det -3.5
mil-2
orl +4

if someone else can confirm these plays being correct this this is simple to understand!

I got detroit a play up to -4, Mil I did not get -2 but must have messed up, and Orlando is a play down to +3 Not sure if these are correct. Will do others later.

[Formulawiz]

I got detroit a play up to -4, Mil I did not get -2 but must have messed up, and Orlando is a play down to +3 Not sure if these are correct. Will do others later.

Did someone miss ATL -1??? Also WAS/NY game is a keep record only. Rule #3. We will be able to determine which way to go at a later date.
Remember guys, NO PLAYS until 10 to 15 minutes prior to tip off. Things can change.

[-*MeMpHiS*-]

yes i've missed ATL also thanks-LOL

So I guess I am doing it right then?

[Formulawiz]

Win/Loss Record Keeping

I know many of you are anxious to get your bets in early. In order to keep our win/loss records accurate we should consider using the closing lines where the majority of casinos have the same lines. This way it will keep complaints down. We all need to be on the same playing field. Do you all agree.

[gameday10]

Plays I have as of now:
NYK/Wash - No Play
Det/OKC+3.5 - Detroit is a play up to -4
Mil/Sac - messed/confused, got Mil play up to -6.5?
Orl+4/LA - Orl play nothing under +3
NO+3/Clev - Clev play nothing over -3.5
Atl/GS+1 - Atl play up to -3.5
Tor+3.5/Ind - Tor play on +3 and up.
Utah/Mem +4.5 - Utah play up to -6.5
Minn+8.5/Phoen - Minn play nothing under +8.5

Someone check for me.

[Formulawiz]

Plays I have as of now:
NYK/Wash - No Play
Det/OKC+3.5 - Detroit is a play up to -4
Mil/Sac - messed/confused, got Mil play up to -6.5?
Orl+4/LA - Orl play nothing under +3
NO+3/Clev - Clev play nothing over -3.5
Atl/GS+1 - Atl play up to -3.5
Tor+3.5/Ind - Tor play on +3 and up.
Utah/Mem +4.5 - Utah play up to -6.5
Minn+8.5/Phoen - Minn play nothing under +8.5

Someone check for me.

CLE up to - 4. CLE 110.5 and NO 104

[Formulawiz]

Christmas or 70% system

By the way I am not sure if you guys are aware but the Christmas system is picking DET at 13. Also ORL is at - 0.45 lets watch that one as well. We need another 1/2 pt. We need to also make sure no starters are out.
I also wanted to let you know I have been using this system for many years off and on. There are not alot of plays. I am not knocking the system but there were years when I won with it and years when I lost my ass. I know for a fact this year its 11-9. It does at times show value plays and it is not to be dismissed.

[gameday10]

CLE up to - 4. CLE 110.5 and NO 104

Thanks. And does the others look right?

Also, I will help. I have wrote a small c++ program that you just enter then PR numbers and the spread in and it does it for you. I am working now to add more to it, like once it has the final number to tell you which team to play and when to not play. Any suggestions? Just trying to make it easier instead of sitting down and doing it by hand.

[-*MeMpHiS*-]

Another thing we could maybe try is once you get the days plays using the Overall PR...Use the H and V PR to check if it's still a play. I did this for today's games and found that UTA was a play under Overall PR but when using H and V PR they were not. This may work in our favor as the more solid plays are good either way Overall or H and V PR.

Just a thought.

[gameday10]

Another thing we could maybe try is once you get the days plays using the Overall PR...Use the H and V PR to check if it's still a play. I did this for today's games and found that UTA was a play under Overall PR but when using H and V PR they were not. This may work in our favor as the more solid plays are good either way Overall or H and V PR.

Just a thought.

Exactly what I was doing last night. Same thing you were thinking. Figured if both matched it would be a solid play.

[Plu$Money]

i am completely lost??? how do you add each days games to the excell program and compute the new lines

[-*MeMpHiS*-]

You know what would be really good. Instead of a Overall PR and H-V PR if we could somehow get a last 5 or 10 games PR. That would be something very accurate as it traces the various team and their current streak and or slumps. It could be a lot more benefical I'd say. The good thing is it can flucuate daily but then again it isn't crazy flucuation as it takes the last 5 or 10 games into consideration. This would work especially good for team who suffer an injury for a period of time like (Denver, Houston, Philly even Toronto). When it's Overall it takes a much long time to get a more accurate figure when a team goes on a week slump like this past week(s) with Boston as they were probably dropping on a daily basis when they lost those strech of games. This system is very good we just need to find way to minimize losses as much as possible.

[gameday10]

You know what would be really good. Instead of a Overall PR and H-V PR if we could somehow get a last 5 or 10 games PR. That would be something very accurate as it traces the various team and their current streak and or slumps. It could be a lot more benefical I'd say. The good thing is it can flucuate daily but then again it isn't crazy flucuation as it takes the last 5 or 10 games into consideration. This would work especially good for team who suffer an injury for a period of time like (Denver, Houston, Philly even Toronto).

I believe you can. On the Ratings page just enter the date, 10 days ago and hit calculate. It will calculate the PR from that date to now. I also have all the H/A PR and overall PR wrote down so about 25 minute before the games I will just punch them in and play. See what solid plays come out of both H/A and Overall.

[Formulawiz]

Another thing we could maybe try is once you get the days plays using the Overall PR...Use the H and V PR to check if it's still a play. I did this for today's games and found that UTA was a play under Overall PR but when using H and V PR they were not. This may work in our favor as the more solid plays are good either way Overall or H and V PR.

Just a thought.

Good idea but if using H/A then you would have to add 3 points to home team for HCA.

One other thought, maybe we should also use 3 pts for HCA using OVerall as well. I did at one time but it limits the number of games.

[Formulawiz]

I believe you can. On the Ratings page just enter the date, 10 days ago and hit calculate. It will calculate the PR from that date to now. I also have all the H/A PR and overall PR wrote down so about 25 minute before the games I will just punch them in and play. See what solid plays come out of both H/A and Overall.

This is what I call the short and long term PR approach. You compare what they are doing now, 5 to 10 games Vs the long haul (beginning of the season). I have done this but its alot of work and it can produce opposite plays. Then you have a real problem of which side to take. Many years ago I did this by hand and it was a pain in the ass. This will take quite a bit of record keeping and thats why we need to add all these ideas to the spreadsheet and come up with win/loss records for each scenario to pinpoint the best method to use.

[Formulawiz]

You know what would be really good. Instead of a Overall PR and H-V PR if we could somehow get a last 5 or 10 games PR. That would be something very accurate as it traces the various team and their current streak and or slumps. It could be a lot more benefical I'd say. The good thing is it can flucuate daily but then again it isn't crazy flucuation as it takes the last 5 or 10 games into consideration. This would work especially good for team who suffer an injury for a period of time like (Denver, Houston, Philly even Toronto). When it's Overall it takes a much long time to get a more accurate figure when a team goes on a week slump like this past week(s) with Boston as they were probably dropping on a daily basis when they lost those strech of games. This system is very good we just need to find way to minimize losses as much as possible.

Let me explain to you the difference between Overall PR and H/A PR as sportrends explained to me.
The calculation in the spreadsheet calculates each teams PR at home and away, while the overall calculates every game the team played whether home or away. Ex: Lets say BOS played 10 games at home and 12 games on the road. It first calculates Home PR only using the 10 games at home. Then it calulate away using the 12 games on the road. The Overall uses all 22 games no matter where they played. I hope this made sense because some of you might interpret it differently.

One other thought, the spreadsheet has it limitations. It only allows you to go back to a specific date rather then being able to go back lets say 5 games for every team. Right now if you go back lets say 5 days you will get an error because there are not enough games. Also it is possible by going back 10 days a team might have played 5 games on the road and 1 game at home. You would then get results which are overwhelming weighed to away games and this is no good. Just some thoughts.

[curious]

This is what I call the short and long term PR approach. You compare what they are doing now, 5 to 10 games Vs the long haul (beginning of the season). I have done this but its alot of work and it can produce opposite plays. Then you have a real problem of which side to take. Many years ago I did this by hand and it was a pain in the ass. This will take quite a bit of record keeping and thats why we need to add all these ideas to the spreadsheet and come up with win/loss records for each scenario to pinpoint the best method to use.

The only thing I look at in NBA is the current streak. I look for matchups where a hot team is playing a cold team. I pass on two hot teams or two cold teams playing each other.

When I say streak I don't mean that stupid nonsense of "Toronto is 15-3 when playing on Friday after losing by 17 points and they play the next night and the cheerladers won't be wearing any panties...". I mean what is the team either SU or ATS going back to when they were either hot (and now they are cold) or cold (and now they are hot) or it was too choppy to tell.

For example, I like the Nicks tonight because:
Wizards lost last six games (0-5 vs spread in last five).
Knicks won last two games, covered three of last four.

I might look at RELEVANT trends like:
NEW YORK: 6-1 ATS against Southeast division
WASHINGTON: 1-9 ATS when the line is +3 to -3

But I stay away from stupid trends like:
WASHINGTON is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) in home games on Friday nights since 1996.

What in the hell could home games on Friday night over the last 12 years have to do with ANYTHING?

Anyway, that is how I roll and it is doing very well.

[eanelson]

Formulawiz - I don't mind keeping track of any additional records. If/when we all come to a concensus on what all we would like tracked (H/A PR, Rule 3, Regular, etc.) just make sure I am aware and I'll do what I can to keep tally.

Is there anybody who is good with VB here? I was looking through the macro last night to see what exactly it uses to compile the PR (for curiousity's sake) but I don't know much about VB. Will someone who knows more about it look through that and let us all know? I think it would be pretty interesting.

[curious]

Formulawiz - I don't mind keeping track of any additional records. If/when we all come to a concensus on what all we would like tracked (H/A PR, Rule 3, Regular, etc.) just make sure I am aware and I'll do what I can to keep tally.

Is there anybody who is good with VB here? I was looking through the macro last night to see what exactly it uses to compile the PR (for curiousity's sake) but I don't know much about VB. Will someone who knows more about it look through that and let us all know? I think it would be pretty interesting.

To calculate the Power Rating they add up the differences between points scored and points allowed and then divide that by the number of games and then add 100.

I just reread that sentence and now I fill like I want to kill myself. LOL

Let me try to use an example.

Team A has three home games vs Team B, Team C, Team D
the scores for the games are as follows:
Away.....Home.....Home Difference (Home points - Away Points)
96...........76...........-20
101........103..............2
85...........95.............10

You now add up the Home Difference for the 3 games
-20 + 2 + 10 = -8

Now divide by 3 -8 / 3 = -2.67

Now add 100

100 + -2.67 = 97.33

So the power rating for Team A is 97.33

This power rating is the average of the difference between the points scored and points allowed per game plus 100.

Subtract 100 from the power rating and you get the average difference between points scored and points allowed.

So, the average difference between points scored and points allowed for Team A is -2.67.

[Formulawiz]

NBA Plays tonight

Tonight we have
TOR + 4.5
DET - 4 no more
UTA -4.5
CLE -2.5 Dropped from 6.5 be careful here I believe half the team is out.
MIL Pick Rule 3 kicks in. Watch
ORL + 4.5 no less the 3.5
ATL -1

Dont forget wait till 10 to 15 min prior to tip off things can change

[Formulawiz]

To calculate the Power Rating they add up the differences between points scored and points allowed and then divide that by the number of games and then add 100.

I just reread that sentence and now I fill like I want to kill myself. LOL

Let me try to use an example.

Team A has three home games vs Team B, Team C, Team D
the scores for the games are as follows:
Away.....Home.....Home Difference (Home points - Away Points)
96...........76...........-20
101........103..............2
85...........95.............10

You now add up the Home Difference for the 3 games
-20 + 2 + 10 = -8

Now divide by 3 -8 / 3 = -2.67

Now add 100

100 + -2.67 = 97.33

So the power rating for Team A is 97.33

This power rating is the average of the difference between the points scored and points allowed per game plus 100.

Subtract 100 from the power rating and you get the average difference between points scored and points allowed.

So, the average difference between points scored and points allowed for Team A is -2.67.

I dont really think it matters how they worked out the PR's although it would be nice. I believe I got through the second step along time ago. Step one is simple as you explained it, step 2 is calculating their opponenets PR's, but step 3 I got stumped on. Anyway If there is a VB programmer out there we want to hear from you.