Leans for Tuesday 1/6/09 "Over Day"

[cocknocker]

Turkish,

Houston is still my large play of the day. I played them at -2 when the line was 3 by buying a point. But it's still a good bet at 3.5.

[joanapoker]

Well CK

what is the OVER u are gonna pick??
What are ur bet so far apart from HOU-2?

Thx

[shoebox]

Alright CK,

I cant give you an o/u but I have some strong trends to contribute
Orlandos last five vs wash
O 105 W 90
O 106 W 81
O 103 W 83
O 86 W 87
W 92 O 122


Orlando owns the whizzzles. Now the so called rivalry wash/clev got them overachieving to a t( whatever "crab Dribble"). Now remember this is the whizzles they are DUE for a huge let down. Now as you can see from there past meetings the magic just plain out own the wizzz. Now, take into consideration that this is a huge letdown game and I smell BLOWOUT!!!!

Orlando -11 final play

[Dexter]

interesting article - claims 7 is turning into a key nba #

http://www.ultimatecapper.com/nba-key-numbers.htm

[indeed]

I simply cannot see the Rockets losing this game ..

[roasthawg]

Here's the breakdown of final margin of victory for the last 15 years...5 is the key number followed by 7.

1 4.31%
2 6.09%
3 5.85%
4 5.81%
5 6.49%
6 6.09%
7 6.37%
8 5.97%
9 5.73%
10 4.97%
11 4.82%
12 4.31%
13 3.80%
14 3.26%
15 2.98%

[The_Kid]

Just did some quick number crunching and in Mem/Minny

Average total last 5: 204
Average spread: 206
Current Line: 194

Memphis as a favorite this year at home: 8-0 in favor of the OVER. This game screams over which means it will go under...at least thats the pattern with me. Food for thought.

I was looking at this too MBP. The only reason the total went OVER in the last meeting was due to overtime. Can't count on both teams to be tied at the end of regulation to push it over in overtime. Linesmakers know what they're doing and they opened the total lower than it was the last time around (196 vs 191). I really want to play the OVER but everyone and their mother seems to be on this one.

[cocknocker]

joanapoker,

I have made a small wager on th New York Knicks-1.5 in addition to my Rockets pick. It is small only because of the size of the wager that I put on the Rockets. I fully expect the Knicks to finally get a win on the road. And since this is an out of conference game, i summarized that the Thunder are unfamliar with their style of play. Although the Knicks just upset the Celtics, I don't see them having a letdown in this game. When teams like that get a big upset, they feel like they can beat any team. With an inferior team in front of them, I have a strong feeling that the Knicks will actually blow out the Thunder. David Lee's diminutive size and stature will not be as much a factor in this game as the Thunder also lack true size as well. Knicks roll in this one. But being that they are not as strong a team as the Rockets, they didn't garner as much consideration from me when I invested my money on their behalf.

pensinger,

I wanted you to know that I did not disregard your PM, but my box was full, and when I tried to send my reply, it wouldn't go through because of that fact. When i cleaned out thebox, it automatically deleted your entry, try again, and i will give you the information that you requested.

[nick2060]

I got charlotte +10 tonight buying a half point, whos with me?!

[twitch66]

College Parlay of the Day

Illinois State-1.5
West virginia-3.5
Georgia+8 (1 point buy)
Penn State +2.5
LSU+6 (1 point buy)

looks good i dropped a small wager on it. will be fun to watch

[cocknocker]

So Dexter,

as you can see by roasthawg's information, stay away from those odd numbers. Acording to the information given most games end in odd numbers, as noted (5, 7 most frequently). It is always a good idea to do so to avoid a precious few pushes or losses during the length of a season.

[cocknocker]

nick2060,

Just smoke on somethin' and wait a little longer. You can get 10.5 or 11 with that point buy. There's 82% of bettors on the Green Machine, babe. The line will go up, homes.

[JamesBrown]

......Lately Minnesota has found a little more offense and have been competitive. They are putting up more shots and getting a few more boards. I expect Memphis to get maybe 3 to 5 more shots in this one and a about 4 more boards because of Minnesota's horrible defense. And don't forget about the extra % points in shooting for Memphis. More points.

Predicted score Memphis 108 to 103

Any thoughts?

I like it....I'm on the over for this one!

[BigMoneyMan]

Well let me help you out CK.
After another perfect day I am rolling with Charlotte. Boston plays like shit on the road plain and simple. To many points to give them on the road.
Game 2 is Orlando. They own Washington and coming off a loss. Watch out they will be playing pissed off. Game 3 is Oklahoma City. New York just won against Boston and is not a light out team right now. OK has been playing really well lately and they need a win.
Last game is the Clippers. You have to have you head examined to make Dallas -14 against anyone. I wouldn't give them that many against a high school team. Also if you notice they do just enough to win and play down to there opponents. one last thing this is the last game before the Clips go home and they need to pull one out on the road.
Well there is is. Four lovelies for you and may have a late one also.

PS I took Denver last night anyway. Couldn't help myself

[Dexter]

good class today....

[BigMoneyMan]

One thing I forgot to mention about Boston. This is basically there seventh road game in a row since they went back home and then immediately back on the road. Gl

[MrSink]

Best play tonight is orlando -12.5

[cocknocker]

joanapoker,

I am dwelling on the Minnesota/Memphis over 194 offered by AdaBarber, as well as the offering of Mr.Sink of New York/Oklahoma City over 217.

I have slight lean more for the New York/Oklahoma City over as the public actually is 54% for the under, and the line is going down bit from 220 to 217 now. But the problem is that neither of those teams has a shot blocker, which means layups. The over is 4-1 when New York plays on the road against the Sonics/Thunder as well. The average over/under is 194 and the average actual game scores average 194.5. But that was then..this is now. In recent form, the Knicks are giving up 103.8 and the Thunder are giving up 105.2, which adds up to a crisp 209. Throw in the fact that the Knicks are starting off a 4 game west coast road trip, I think that means that the Thunder will get their best effort. hell if the Knicks can carve through Boston's defense and score 100, they can slice up the Oklahoma City defense with ease. Between these two teams the give up 12.5 made 3 pointers on average per game. Hell that's 37.5 points right there on the defensive end, now let's look at how mny they make combined on offense: 10.4 for New York (WOW) and 4.0 for Oklahoma City. So 14.5 made three pointers is basically a whole half worth of points for an NBA game (435 points). With no shotblockers in the game, there will also be a ton of uncontested layups. The only thing that concerns me about this game's over is that the thunder are coming off of their longest rest period of the year, and if there is any rust, it will showup in the 1st half..

[jjusttiff]

CK, I see your an NHL bigot haha. I keep giving you $$$$$ everyday but the CK mafia chooses not to ride along. Its ok I will get ya sooner or later.

Also to the couple guys who keep betting the Penguins can you please just send me your money instead of the books. I have told you over and over do not bet them as the team is in disaray but you keep seeing value. The books give you value because the team is very bad right now with absolutely no goaltending at all. Do not bet them until they get back to winning.

Indeed, I see you took the Edmonton pick so get your money. I placed that bet and went to bed with no stress

Ill get you Mafia boys on the ice sooner or later and not just bigmoney betting the Bruins. Bigmoney should have known not to bet the Bruins against Buffalo on Saturday. I dont care how hot they are the boys from Buffalo have had their number for 20 years

i love hockey...you have any good tips that will go into a all up with nba? i was thinking boston and NJ, wat do you think

[cocknocker]

The best line movement of the day so far is the movement of the Bulls. With only 46% of bettors on their side, the line went up and over 8 to 9. This spells blowout alert, even with Sacramento's 4-1 ats record in games at Chicago.

[zackattack]

ok guys i need a little advice....
i have 2 different parlays riding on tonights bowl game.......and becuase of when i played them i have the weird situation of laying points with both sides......i bet a $50, 4 team parlay and have ball state -1.5 if it hits it pays $644, the 2nd parlay i have a $30, 4 teamer that pays 380, but i have tulsa -3.......i am trying to figure out if i can hedge these parlays in order to get the most from them. any betting advice would be appreciated, thanks, zack!

[Dexter]

booked plays-

tulsa -3
rockets -3.5
thunder +2

[MrSink]

Dexter I like your picks 2nd day in row.
Yesterdays over Ind/Den, todays Thunders
I think the same...so cross your fingers
Go Thunders

[danrman]

houston line down to -2 1/2 w/ mcgrady coming back and boston on deck.. starting to smell like a trap but still liking houston thinking they need to play well going into boston

[cocknocker]

The Knicks are going into unchartered waters tonight however. Every single team that has beaten the Celtics as not covered in their next game with the exception of the Lakers who beat the Warriors, who incidnetly also beat the Celtics the previous night. However, the Knicks are playing a team that record wise is not better than they are and that is what makes this matchup a little different. The other teams faced teams with better records than them in their next game after beating the Celtics. The Knicks have hadproblems piecing together two wins in a row since the trades. We will know if they can be the first team to break the "Beat the Champs" hex tonight.

[danrman]

ck your over is the chi-sac game

[cocknocker]

McGrady's minutes will have to be shortened in this game anyway. I am not going to be swayed by the line movement on this game. Houston's line may drop, but it won't drop down to 2. The linemakers aren't stupid. And if it does, then that would be grand for Houston bettors as i made my wager with the assumption that neither he nor Artest or Battier would be playing. I made my wager on the "starless" Rockets. And i am sticking to my guns. Philadelphia doesn't have what it takes to beat a Houston team with a fire lit up underneath their asses by the local media and their coach, who questioned their effort over their recent bad streak of play. The line was bound to be tinkered with given their bad 1-6 ats run. I'm not fooled. the Rockets have the superior team with or without the stars over Philadelphia.

[strybie]

I am playing this one. Two important games are Houston -2.5 and Orlando -12.5. the other I take ML game on the favorite team. I think when my two main bets win I have a big chance to cash the ticket. 12.35 to get 227

I also play some other parlays with HOU -2.5 and ORL - 12.5

Good luck to all

Houston Rockets-2.5
Orlando Magic-12.5
Memphis Grizzlies ML
New York Knicks ML
Chicago Bulls ML
Boston Celtics ML
Los Angeles Lakers ML

12.35 to win 227.32

[Turkish]

houston's -3.5 is now -2.5 ....any injury for houston?

[cocknocker]

No, danrman,

I haven't made up my mind on which over i will take yet. I am still contemplating, smoking on what total I will play...

[strybie]

Houston's line may drop, but it won't drop down to 2

-2.5 right now, it comes from -3.5

[cubancigarwinner]

ATS LOCK CLUB NHL 3 ATL....3 over in minn

[OuchaDirkFan41]

Im takin my mavs against a banged up Clips team. I like the Overs in NY/OKC 214 and the over in WA/ORL 192.5. Im just gonna play them small though I am gonna try to pound the Mavs and either ORL or LA, still deciding.

[danrman]

i edited my last thought because houston has to play well going into the c's game.. there's no way they would feel right about themselves going into boston having lost to lowly philly.. and i was just adding my 2 cents that maybe the chi-sac is the choice over to play w/ your over theme

[cocknocker]

strybie,

It started off at 3, went to 3.5,and is now back to 2.5. One of the "stars" is not going to play, that's the reason for the point drop. I have them at -2. I have a feeling that Artest and McGrady are being ruled out again. That's fine with me. I had them pegged as a small underdog when i did my research. I had them at +1. This game will be a squeaker, but I think that the superior coaching edge for Houston will pull them through in this one and they win by 6.